IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v65y2023i3d10.1007_s00181-023-02372-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic shocks, investment volatility and centrality in global manufacturing network

Author

Listed:
  • Jisheng Yang

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Nan Yang

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

In this paper, based on the investment behavior of publicly listed manufacturing companies in major economies, we analyze the impacts of macroeconomic systematic shocks on the cyclicality of industrial investment volatility and on the centrality of major economies in global manufacturing network. Two facts are established: (1) the cyclicality of investment volatility in major economies shows to be more countercyclical after 2008, indicating that the downward systematic shocks after 2008 resulted in higher investment volatilities in these major economies through the effect of increased uncertainty accompanying the downward shocks; (2) the impact of global systematic shocks on global manufacturing is making the linkages between industrial investments in major manufacturing economies closer during the period 2002–2020, resulting in an increased centrality of major economies. We consider this as an effect of the counter-globalization trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Jisheng Yang & Nan Yang, 2023. "Macroeconomic shocks, investment volatility and centrality in global manufacturing network," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1433-1451, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:65:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02372-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02372-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-023-02372-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-023-02372-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
    2. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    4. Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1993. "Working Capital and Fixed Investment: New Evidence on Financing Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(3), pages 328-342, Autumn.
    5. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    6. Cosimo Beverelli & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Nadia Rocha, 2011. "Dutch disease revisited. Oil discoveries and movements of the real exchange rate when manufacturing is resource-intensive," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 139-153, June.
    7. Vivi Alatas & Abhijit Banerjee & Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2016. "Network Structure and the Aggregation of Information: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1663-1704, July.
    8. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    9. Stéphane Dupraz & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2019. "A Plucking Model of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 26351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ian Dew-Becker & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2021. "Skewness and Time-Varying Second Moments in a Nonlinear Production Network: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 29499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. An, Heng & Chen, Yanyan & Luo, Danglun & Zhang, Ting, 2016. "Political uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 174-189.
    12. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    13. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    15. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
    16. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    17. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
    18. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    19. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    20. Jushan Bai & Peng Wang, 2015. "Identification and Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 221-240, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 2011-2071.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Shams, Syed & Gunaskerage, Abeyratna & Velayutham, Eswaran, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and acquisition performance: Australian evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 286-308.
    4. Bernstein, Joshua & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2021. "Cyclical net entry and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Yu, Zhen & Li, Yuankun & Ouyang, Ziyi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, hold-up risk and vertical integration: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    7. Huang, Guan-Ying & Shen, Carl Hsin-han & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and debt choice," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    9. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    10. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    12. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    13. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    14. Chengxue Yao & Fan Jiang & Liang Guo, 2023. "Fixed investment or financial assets investment: Evidence from political uncertainty in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 427-450, March.
    15. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/577 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Becker, Raphael Niklas & Henkel, Marcel, 2020. "The role of key regions in spatial development," DICE Discussion Papers 331, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    17. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Stephie Fried & David Lagakos, 2020. "Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 27081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    20. Boyan Jovanovic & Sai Ma, 2022. "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 33-64, April.
    21. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:65:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02372-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.