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Haroon Mumtaz

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. On QE
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2012-02-06 21:06:45
    2. The problem with promises
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2015-04-14 18:16:07
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecasting National Inflation Rates
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2014-08-24 14:00:24
    2. Forecasting National Inflation Rates
      by Robert Balaban in St. Louis Fed On the Economy on 2014-08-21 15:00:38

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.

    Mentioned in:

    1. PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate (QJE 2005) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2009) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2023. "A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy," Discussion Papers 2308, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Key & Jamie Lenney, 2024. "The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution," Bank of England working papers 1083, Bank of England.
    2. Vasileios Karaferis, 2025. "Inequality, Labour Market Dynamics and the Policy Mix: Insights from a FLANK," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 319, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    3. Ma Eunseong & Park Kwangyong, 2025. "Gini in the Taylor Rule: Should the Fed Care About Inequality?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 241-285.
    4. Gomes, Sandra & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2023. "A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Drossidis, Theo & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2024. "The distributional effects of oil supply news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    6. Lofaro, Antonino & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2025. "Impact of monetary policy on functional income distribution: A panel vector autoregressive analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Paul Hubert & Frédérique Savignac, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Labor Income Inequality: the Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins," Working papers 913, Banque de France.
    8. Andreas Fagereng & Magnus A. H. Gulbrandsen & Martin Holm & Gisle Natvik, 2023. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Household Indebtedness?," Working Papers 05/2023, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Elton Beqiraj & Stefano Di Bucchianico & Mario Di Serio & Michele Raitano, 2026. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on wage inequality: evidence from Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 270, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.

  2. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Discussion Papers 2024, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2025. "Quantitative easing, tightening, and the term premium channel in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3089-3125, December.
    2. Viacheslav Kramkov & Andrey Maksimov, 2024. "Monetary surprises and term structure of interest rates: Identification through heteroscedasticity," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 5-34.
    3. Gustavo Silva Araujo & José Valentim Machado Vicente & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2025. "Determinants of the Risk Premium in Brazilian Nominal Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 637, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    6. Braun, Robin & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Saha, Tuli, 2025. "Measuring monetary policy in the UK: The UK monetary policy event-study database," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    8. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Can we Use High‐Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(328), pages 3-43, March.
    9. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    11. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England.
    13. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Chen, Hsuan-Chi & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lu, Chien-Lin, 2025. "Too big to fail? Asymmetric effects of quantitative easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Adra, Samer & Menassa, Elie, 2022. "The Fed’s dual shocks and the housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    16. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2022. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can We Use High-frequency Yield Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and Its Communication? Yes and No!," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    19. Mucai Lin & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2026. "Silent News in China's Monetary Policy Announcements: Dual-Shock Identification with Ordered Heteroskedasticity," Working Papers 2026-02-01, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    20. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    21. Rodrigo Sekkel & Henry Stern & Xu Zhang, 2025. "Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 25-33, Bank of Canada.

  3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    2. Acosta, Miguel & Ajello, Andrea & Bauer, Michael D. & Loria, Francesca & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2025. "Financial market effects of FOMC communication: Evidence from a new event-study database," IMFS Working Paper Series 227, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Salisu, Afees A. & van Eyden, Reneé, 2023. "Firm-level business uncertainty and the predictability of the aggregate U.S. stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 295-302.
    4. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Fengler, Matthias & Koeniger, Winfried & Minger, Stephan, 2025. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy to the Cost of Hedging," Economics Working Paper Series 2501, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Sonali Das, 2021. "Forecasting Output Growth of Advanced Economies Over Eight Centuries: The Role of Gold Market Volatility as a Proxy of Global Uncertainty," Working Papers 202133, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel, 2025. "The economic implications of oil supply uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Ascari, Guido & Fasani, Stefano & Grazzini, Jakob & Rossi, Lorenza, 2023. "Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 48-63.
    9. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    11. Hiroshi Morita & Ryo Matsumoto & Taiki Ono, 2025. "Central bank information effects in Japan: the role of uncertainty channel," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 855-877, February.
    12. Smart Asomaning Sarpong & Akwasi Agyei, 2022. "Interactions Between Water Level, Crude Oil, and Hydroelectric Power Generation in Ghana; A Structured Vector Auto Regression Approach," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    14. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2025. "Liquidity constraints, real estate regulation, and local government debt risks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    15. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Ma, Yong & Lan, Huanqi, 2025. "How does monetary policy shock affect banks' loan loss provisioning behavior? Evidence from Chinese commercial banks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2025. "Does uncertainty amplify the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    21. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    22. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    23. Matsumoto, Ryo & Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2022. "Central Bank Information Effects in Japan : The Role of Uncertainty Channel," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-126, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "Amplification effects of news shocks through uncertainty," 2017 Papers pca1251, Job Market Papers.
    25. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    26. Mengting Li & Yu Wei & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2025. "Carbon Price Uncertainty-Macroeconomy Mixed-Frequency Spillovers: Evidence from the Frequency-Domain," Working Papers 202527, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Ruipeng Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Investors’ Uncertainty and Forecasting Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 327-337, July.
    28. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    29. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    30. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    31. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhou, Jinlan & Du, Xiaodong, 2022. "Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    32. Xi Wang & Jiayang Li & Guangbin Zhang, 2022. "Mixed Monetary–Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 167-196, March.
    33. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yang, Miao & Ge, Xinyu & Zhao, Chen, 2025. "Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate credit financing in China: The role of accounting information quality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    34. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2023. "Structural sources of oil market volatility and correlation dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    35. Francesco Ferlaino, 2024. "Does the financial accelerator accelerate inequalities?," Working Papers 538, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    36. Su, Li & Zhu, Jingjing, 2024. "Term structures and firm dynamics: A FAVAR approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    37. Chen, Peng & Miao, Xinru & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2023. "Do gold prices respond more to uncertainty shocks at the zero lower bound?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    38. Li, Shengfeng & Hoque, Hafiz & Thijssen, Jacco, 2021. "Firm financial behaviour dynamics and interactions: A structural vector autoregression approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    39. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    40. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  4. Mumtaz, Haroon & Musso, Alberto, 2018. "The evolving impact of global, region-specific and country-specific uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2147, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Financial integration or financial fragmentation? A euro area perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
    4. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Ignacio Garr'on & C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," Papers 2410.20628, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    7. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Ngozi H. Chinweuba & Chinasa E. Urama, 2026. "Effects of Resource Rent and Infrastructural Development on Entrepreneurship in Africa: A Study of the Moderating Role of Governance Institutions," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 17(2), pages 4471-4498, April.
    8. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
    9. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    10. Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "Disentangling supply-side and demand-side effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. financial markets: Identification using prices of gold and oil," Discussion Papers 10/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Davidmac O. Ekeocha, 2024. "Terrorism and economic complexity in Africa: The unconditional impact of military expenditure," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 139-152, March.
    12. Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Tang, Guohao & Chen, Jian, 2025. "External trade policy uncertainty, corporate risk exposure, and stock market volatility," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "On the effects of global uncertainty shocks on portfolio flows," Discussion Papers 23/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    19. Garrón Vedia, Ignacio & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 44814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    20. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Emmanuel O. Nwosu, 2023. "Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(4), pages 528-557, December.
    21. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Qatar-Gulf Crisis and Risk Management in Oil and Gas Markets," Working Papers hal-02101633, HAL.
    22. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    23. Baxa, Jaromír & Šestořád, Tomáš, 2025. "Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    24. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    25. Jawadi, Fredj & Pondie, Thierry M., 2024. "Political uncertainty and macro-financial dynamics in the BRICS," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    26. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    27. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    28. Priscila Espinosa & Jose M. Pavía, 2023. "Automation in Regional Economic Synthetic Index Construction with Uncertainty Measurement," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, April.
    29. Haroon Mumtaz & Sofia Velasco, 2026. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility," Papers 2604.03681, arXiv.org.
    30. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 169-185, May.
    31. Ren, Xiyu & Marotta, Fulvia & Lafond, François, 2025. "Do common shocks drive changes in aggregate emissions intensity?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2025-15, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2026.
    32. Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Europe: Spillovers and Common Shocks," Working Papers 2024/9, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

  5. Haroon Mumtaz & Ahmed Pirzada & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Non-linear effects of oil shocks on stock prices," Working Papers 865, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2023. "Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2669-2709, December.
    2. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," Working Paper Series 2834, European Central Bank.
    3. Davidson, Sharada Nia & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2024. "The nonlinear effects of banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2912, European Central Bank.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Battistini, Niccolò & Falagiarda, Matteo & Hackmann, Angelina & Roma, Moreno, 2025. "Navigating the housing channel of monetary policy across euro area regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Macroeconomic regime change and the size of supply chain disruption and energy supply shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

  6. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR," Working Papers 855, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majon, 2024. "Approximate Factor Models with a Common Multiplicative Factor for Stochastic Volatility," GRIPS Discussion Papers 24-02, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    4. Antonio M. Conti & Elisa Guglielminetti & Marianna Riggi, 2019. "Labour productivity and the wageless recovery," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Haroon Mumtaz, 2020. "A Generalised Stochastic Volatility in Mean VAR. An Updated Algorithm," Working Papers 908, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2023. "Structural sources of oil market volatility and correlation dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Joseph P Byrne & Erkal Ersoy, 2020. "Endogenous Uncertainty in the Oil Market: A Bayesian Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean Analysis," CEERP Working Paper Series 012, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    12. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2025. "The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Haroon Mumtaz & Sofia Velasco, 2026. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility," Papers 2604.03681, arXiv.org.
    14. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  7. Eleni Chatzivgeri & Haroon Mumtaz & Daniela Tavasci & Luigi Ventimiglia, 2018. "Common and country specific factors in the distribution of real wages," Working Papers 863, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Xiyu & Marotta, Fulvia & Lafond, François, 2025. "Do common shocks drive changes in aggregate emissions intensity?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2025-15, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2026.

  8. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "The Federal Reserve s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Elizaveta Lukmanova & Katrin Rabitsch, 2018. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp274, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2023. "The Impacts of Global Risk and US Monetary Policy on US Dollar Exchange Rates and Excess Currency Returns," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2037, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Keagile Lesame & Richard Kima, "undated". "Macroeconomic effects of lowering South Africa’s inflation target: An SVAR analysis," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2025:i::id:218, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    4. Trienens, Lasse & Herwartz, Helmut, 2025. "Neo-Fisherism and fiscal solvency: Reinterpreting the determination of inflation, yields, and the debt ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Chin, Michael & Graeve, Ferre De & Filippeli, Thomai & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Understanding International Long-Term Interest Rate Comovement," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut & Trienens, Lasse, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302351, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    7. Marina Albanese & Francesco Busato & Monica Varlese, 2026. "Inflation-Based Fiscal Consolidation: Does Speed Matter?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 12(1), pages 441-475, March.
    8. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

  9. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "Measuring the origins of macroeconomic uncertainty," Working Papers 864, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.

  10. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and Stock Prices in the United State," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Andre & Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 202309, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    5. Emmanuel O. Akande & Jeremiah D. Dandaura & Elijah Akanni, 2024. "Monetary policy instruments and inflation in Nigeria: a revisit of FAVAR," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-36, February.
    6. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 201742, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Haroon Mumtaz & Katerina Petrova, 2023. "Changing Impact of Shocks: A Time‐Varying Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 635-654, March.
    9. Boniface Yemba & Yi Duan & Nabaneeta Biswas, 2023. "Government spending news and stock price index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1816-1841.
    10. Andrea Recine & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2025. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Defense and Non-Defense R&D," Working Papers in Public Economics 262, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    11. Shahida Perveen, Mustaghis-ur-Rahman, 2018. "Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Study of Pakistan Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(2), pages 2-23, October.
    12. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets," Working papers 2020-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 377-381, May.
    14. Gkolfinopoulou, Michalitsa & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2025. "Effects of Tax Shocks on Inequality: Empirical Evidence from the United Kingdom," MPRA Paper 123457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Takumah, Wisdom & Ujah, Nacasius, 2025. "Defense spending and asset prices: The role of cointegration and high-dimensional macroeconomic data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 2346-2359.
    16. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Miyazaki, Tomomi & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2024. "Stock market response to public investment under the zero lower bound: Cross-industry evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Centinaio, Alessandra & Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2024. "Government decisions and macroeconomic stability: Fiscal policies and financial market fluctuations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    20. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2022. "Money, debt, and the effects of fiscal stimulus," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-178.
    21. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen, 2020. "125 ​Years of time-varying effects of fiscal policy on financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 303-320.
    22. Debora Insolda & Marco Maria Matarrese & Francesco Frangiamore, 2025. "Estimating the Effects of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 11(3), pages 1301-1334, November.
    23. Sangyup Choi & Kyung Woong Koh, 2026. "Resolving the Fiscal Price Puzzle: General Equilibrium Effects and the Composition of Government Spending," Working papers 2026rwp-280, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    24. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to Legislated Tax Changes: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202047, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    25. Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B., 2024. "The role of shifts in the effective tax rate on the cost of equity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 61-72.

  11. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Online Appendix to "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation"," Online Appendices 14-103, Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    2. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    5. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    7. Pietro Alessandrini & Òscar Jordà & Fabrizio Venditti, 2023. "Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Sarah Vella, 2025. "Constructing a country-specific indicator for cyclical systemic risk," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-63, June.
    9. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    10. Hamza Bennani & Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model," Working Paper Series 2020-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    11. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Martin Iseringhausen, 2021. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," Working Papers 49, European Stability Mechanism.
    13. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
    15. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino & Laust L. Særkjær, 2025. "The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier," CESifo Working Paper Series 11853, CESifo.
    16. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Fusun Celebi Boz & Melike Torun, 2024. "Do Economic and Financial Stabilities Matter for Political Stability in Estonia?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15202-15217, September.
    18. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    23. Alahverdi, Atefe & Daei-Karimzadeh, Saeed & Ghobadi, Sara, 2023. "Forecasting the Trend of Macroeconomic Variables in Terms of Financial Conditions Index in Iran: TVP-FAVAR Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(3), pages 161-185, December.
    24. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    25. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
    26. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Forecasting Inflation with a Zero Lower Bound or Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from Point and Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9687, CESifo.
    27. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    28. Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    29. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Leonardo Del Vecchio & Arianna Miglietta, 2019. "Financial Conditions and 'Growth at Risk' in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    30. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    31. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    33. Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez & Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, 2021. "Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1165, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    34. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
    35. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    36. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    37. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    38. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2020. "Radial basis functions neural networks for nonlinear time series analysis and time-varying effects of supply shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    39. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach," Working Papers 20-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    40. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    41. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    42. Gargiulo, Valeria & Matthes, Christian & Petrova, Katerina, 2025. "Monetary policy across inflation regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    43. Graziano Moramarco, 2025. "Regime‐Switching Density Forecasts Using Economists' Scenarios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 833-845, March.
    44. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    45. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio Maria Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "The financial stability dark side of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1121, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    47. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    48. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle through the MIDAS Lens," CESifo Working Paper Series 10062, CESifo.
    49. Baek, Ingul & Liu, Jia & Noh, Sanha, 2024. "Real estate uncertainty and financial conditions over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 656-675.
    50. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    51. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    52. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    53. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    54. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
    55. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    56. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    57. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei‐Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2024. "Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 5-33, February.
    58. Capasso Salvatore & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Vivero, 2023. "The Financial Conditions Index as an additional tool for policymakers in developing countries: the Mexican case," CSEF Working Papers 664, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    59. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    60. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    61. Joerg Schmidt, 2019. "Risk, Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission in Europe: Evidence from a Threshold-VAR approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201928, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    62. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
    63. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," BIS Working Papers 716, Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Martin Harding & Rafael Wouters, 2022. "Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions," Staff Working Papers 22-37, Bank of Canada.

  12. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann, 2017. "Non-linear effects of government spending shocks in the US. Evidence from state-level data," Working Papers 841, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    2. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2023. "Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2669-2709, December.
    3. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Davide Brignone & Luca Gambetti & Martino Ricci, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    5. Li, Mingyang & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Faster fiscal stimulus and a higher government spending multiplier in China: Mixed-frequency identification with SVAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Matarrese, Marco Maria & Frangiamore, Francesco, 2023. "Italian local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from proxy-SVAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Davidson, Sharada Nia & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2024. "The nonlinear effects of banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2912, European Central Bank.
    8. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A Note on State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 202187, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Joseph P. Byrne & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Global and Country-Specific Climate Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 655-682, March.
    10. Wifag Adnan & Kerim Peren Arin & Aysegul Corakci & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022. "On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 991-1036, January.
    11. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-9, September.
    12. Fabrizio Renzi, 2025. "New evidence on state-dependent fiscal multipliers," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1512, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    14. Coppola, Gianluigi & Destefanis, Sergio & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo, 2024. "Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 538-556.
    15. Murray, James, 2024. "Fiscal policy reactions and impact over the labor income distribution," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 701-718.
    16. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giuliodori, Massimo & Lengyel, Andras & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2023. "Changing patterns of risk-sharing channels in the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 2849, European Central Bank.
    17. Abhishek Singh & Amlendu Dubey, 2026. "Fiscal shocks and subnational government finances: evidence from Indian states," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-22, December.

  13. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "US financial shocks and the distribution of income and consumption in the UK," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Ayako Saiki & Jon Frost, 2018. "Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy and Income Distribution: Revisited," Working Papers e126, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kolb, Benedikt & Prieto, Esteban, 2018. "Effects of bank capital requirement tightenings on inequality," Discussion Papers 54/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. George J. Bratsiotis & Kasun D. Pathirage, 2023. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2304, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  14. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Francesco Zanetti & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu, 2019. "Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 880, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "Identification at the Zero Lower Bound," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2855-2885, November.
    3. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Daisuke Ikeda & Shangshang Li & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "Testing the Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan and the United States," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the Term Spread on Inequality in the United Kingdom: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 201981, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Ampudia, Miguel & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Vermeulen, Philip & Violante, Giovanni L., 2018. "Monetary policy and household inequality," Working Paper Series 2170, European Central Bank.
    4. Gokan, Yoichi & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2023. "Taylor rules: Consequences for wealth and income inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Sushant Acharya & Edouard Challe & Keshav Dogra, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK," Staff Working Papers 21-55, Bank of Canada.
    6. Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji & Anthony Enisan Akinlo, 2025. "Unveiling the Asymmetric Nexus: Monetary Policy and Income Inequality in Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 17(3), pages 413-430, September.
    7. Luisa Corrado & Daniela Fantozzi & Simona Giglioli, 2022. "Real-time inequalities and policies during the pandemic in the US," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1396, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Karl-Friedrich Israel & Tim Florian Sepp & Nils Sonnenberg, 2023. "The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stock Markets and Household Incomes in Japan," Post-Print halshs-04024219, HAL.
    9. Sen, Aariya & Sensarma, Rudra, 2025. "Winners and Losers: The Effects of Monetary Policy on Income and Consumption Inequality," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Acevedo, Laura & Hofstetter, Marc, 2023. "Sacrifice ratios and the income distribution: Stylized facts for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Liu, Peiyao & Liu, Jiaqi, 2025. "Financial development and the nexus between inflation and wealth inequality," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2020. "The Econophysics of Labor Income," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 107-122.
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    49. Makram El-Shagi & Steven Yamarik, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income Inequality across US states," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    50. Capazario, Michele, 2022. "Developing an Income-Distribution- Sensitive Taylor Rule: An Application to South Africa," MPRA Paper 112740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Klein, Mathias & Winkler, Roland, 2019. "Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
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    79. Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Tornese, 2024. "The Distributional Effects of Economic Uncertainty," Papers 2411.12655, arXiv.org.
    80. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2022. "Forecasting stock market (realized) volatility in the United Kingdom: Is there a role of inequality?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2146-2152, April.
    81. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," AMSE Working Papers 2047, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    82. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris & Junior T. Chiweza, 2020. "Monetary policy and wealth inequality in South Africa: Evidence from tax administrative data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-174, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    83. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2018. "Forecasting Stock Market (Realized) Volatility in the United Kingdom: Is There a Role for Economic Inequality?," Working Papers 201880, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    84. Ayoub Rabhi & Brandon Parsons, 2024. "How is Central Bank Independence Shaping Income Inequality in Developing Countries?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 159-176, May.
    85. Çerçil, İrfan & Aksaray, Gorkem, 2025. "Monetary policy and inequality: Distributional effects of asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    86. Ferrando, Annalisa & Mulier, Klaas & Ongena, Steven & Delis, Manthos, 2025. "The poor, the rich, and the credit channel of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 3058, European Central Bank.
    87. Fabio Milani, 2025. "Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Capital-Labor Inequality," CESifo Working Paper Series 12065, CESifo.
    88. Can Sever & Emekcan Yucel, 2021. "Electoral Cycles in Inequality Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/01, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    89. Goodness C. Aye & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Dynamic and Asymmetric Response of Inequality to Income Volatility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 747-762, February.
    90. Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2025. "How does central bank independence influence the relationship between inflation, income inequality and poverty?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    91. Brausewetter, Lars & Ludolph, Melina & Tonzer, Lena, 2023. "Distributional income effects of banking regulation in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 24/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    92. Kilman, Josefin, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Income Inequality in the United States: The Role of Labor Unions," Working Papers 2020:10, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    93. Stefan Hohberger & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2019. "The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Staff Working Papers 19-6, Bank of Canada.
    94. Casiraghi, Marco & Gaiotti, Eugenio & Rodano, Lisa & Secchi, Alessandro, 2018. "A “reverse Robin Hood”? The distributional implications of non-standard monetary policy for Italian households," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 215-235.
    95. John Thornton & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2025. "Further evidence on inflation targeting and income distribution," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1474-1493, April.
    96. José Alves & Tomás Silva, 2020. "An Empirical Assessment of Monetary Policy Channels on Income and Wealth Disparities," Working Papers REM 2020/0144, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    97. Joon-Ho Hahm & Dong Jin Lee & Cyn-Young Park, 2022. "Domestic and External Monetary Policy Shocks and Economic Inequality in the Republic of Korea," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 654, Asian Development Bank.
    98. Momo Komatsu, 2023. "The effect of wage rigidity on the transmission of monetary policy to inequality," Economics Series Working Papers 1004, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    99. Dhital, Saroj & Jiang, Senyuan & Reese, Jillian, 2023. "Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    100. Serena Merrino, 2021. "Wage inequality under inflationtargeting in South Africa," Working Papers 11018, South African Reserve Bank.
    101. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    102. Donggyu Lee, 2024. "Unconventional Monetary Policies and Inequality," Staff Reports 1108, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    103. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2023. "A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy," Discussion Papers 2308, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    104. Philip Bunn & Alice Pugh & Chris Yeates, 2018. "The distributional impact of monetary policy easing in the UK between 2008 and 2014," Bank of England working papers 720, Bank of England.
    105. Vale, Sofia, 2024. "House prices and credit as transmission channels from monetary policy to inequality: Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 293-307.
    106. Louis Rouanet & Peter Hazlett, 2023. "The redistributive politics of monetary policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 1-26, January.
    107. Hartwell Christopher A., 2019. "Complexity, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy: Can the ECB Avoid the Unconventional Becoming the ‘New Normal’?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    108. Nolan, Brian & Richiardi, Matteo & Valenzuela, Luis, 2018. "The Drivers of Inequality in Rich Countries," MPRA Paper 89806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    109. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Woraphon Yamaka, 2021. "Time-Varying Predictability of Labor Productivity on Inequality in United Kingdom," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 771-788, June.
    110. Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2022. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 859-884, June.
    111. Le Wen & Krishna P. Paudel & Youhua Chen & Qinying He, 2021. "Urban segregation and consumption inequality: Does hukou conversion matter in China?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2298-2322, November.
    112. Israel, Karl-Friedrich & Sepp, Tim Florian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2023. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy on stock markets and household incomes in Japan," Working Papers 177, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    113. Paul Hubert & Frédérique Savignac, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Labor Income Inequality: the Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins," Working papers 913, Banque de France.
    114. Daniel R. Ringo, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    115. Biljana Jovanovic & Marko Josimovski, 2021. "Income-specific inflation rates and the effects of monetary policy: the case of North Macedonia," Working Papers 2021-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    116. Guerello, Chiara, 2018. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy vs. households income distribution: An empirical analysis for the Euro Area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 187-214.
    117. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2018. "The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States," Working Papers in Economics 2018-4, University of Salzburg.
    118. Abebe Hailemariam & Tutsirai Sakutukwa & Ratbek Dzhumashev, 2021. "Long-term determinants of income inequality: evidence from panel data over 1870–2016," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1935-1958, October.
    119. John Beirne & Haroon Mumtaz & Donghyun Park & Gazi Salah Uddin & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2025. "Who benefits from increases in military spending? An empirical analysis," Papers 2511.08218, arXiv.org.
    120. Chong-Chuo Chang & Kuen-Shiou Yang, 2021. "Loose monetary policy and firm uncertainty," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-27, March.
    121. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktug & Muserref Kucukbayrak, 2025. "Hand-to-Mouth Households in the Eurosystem and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2506, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    122. Sangyup Choi & Jeeyeon Phi, 2022. "Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality," Working papers 2022rwp-196, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    123. Natalia Martín Fuentes & Elena Bárcena Martín & Salvador Pérez Moreno, "undated". "Who takes the cake? The heterogeneous effect of ECB accommodative monetary policy across income classes," Working Papers 657, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    124. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kueng, Lorenz & Silvia, John, 2017. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 70-89.
    125. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    126. Chen, Siyan & Desiderio, Saul, 2018. "Computational evidence on the distributive properties of monetary policy," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-38, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    127. Frost, Jon & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Gambacorta, Romina, 2022. "On the nexus between wealth inequality, financial development and financial technology," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 429-451.
    128. Yuki Tada & Kazuhiro Kurose, 2024. "The Pasinetti Index and the Rise of Inequality in the Age of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan," TERG Discussion Papers 488, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    129. Nalban, Valeriu, 2018. "Sectoral intermediate goods and redistributive effects of economic policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 292-307.
    130. Marson, Marta & Saccone, Donatella, 2025. "The effect of food price upsurges on income inequality: The richest win and the poorest lose," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    131. Philip Bunn & Andrew Haldane & Alice Pugh, 2020. "Has monetary policy made you happier?," Bank of England working papers 880, Bank of England.
    132. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2018. "Monetary policy and the redistribution of net worth in the US," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91320, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    133. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Ping Wu, 2026. "Incorporating Micro Data into Macro Models Using Pseudo VARs," Working Papers 26-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    134. Sonan Memon & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2021. "Income inequality and macroeconomic instability," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 758-789, May.
    135. Martin Geiger & Eric Mayer & Johann Scharler, 2019. "Inequality and the Business Cycle: Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2019-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    136. Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK," MPRA Paper 90448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    137. Dr. Ameenullah Aman & Dr. Usman Ahmad & Sumera Muhammad Saleem, 2021. "Investigating the Link Between Macroeconomic Factors and Income Inequality of Asian Countries," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 376-387, December.
    138. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Peñalver, Antonio & Perez-Bernabeu, Alberto, 2020. "The effects of monetary policy on income and wealth inequality in the U.S. Exploring different channels," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-106.
    139. Champagne, Sarah N. & Macdiarmid, Jennie I. & Olusola, Omotayo & Phimister, Euan & Guntupalli, Aravinda Meera, 2024. "Heating or eating? The framing of food and fuel poverty in UK news media," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    140. Groiss, Martin, 2024. "Equalizing Monetary Policy - the Earnings Heterogeneity Channel in Action," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    141. Momo Komatsu, 2023. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Consumption Inequality: An Analysis of Transmission Channels through TANK Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1245-1270, August.
    142. Elton Beqiraj & Stefano Di Bucchianico & Mario Di Serio & Michele Raitano, 2026. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on wage inequality: evidence from Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 270, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    143. Thomas Gries & Lukas Wiechers & Sebastian José Luna-Victoria, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and wealth inequality: evidence from the US," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1865-1874.

  16. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Persistence of state-level uncertainty of the United States: The role of climate risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Economic Conditions across US States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202410, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2025. "Divergent effects of aggregate and local uncertainty shocks: Evidence from US metropolitan areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
    6. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.
    7. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2022. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States," Working Papers 202251, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Sofia Velasco, 2025. "Let the Tree Decide: FABART A Non-Parametric Factor Model," Papers 2506.11551, arXiv.org.
    9. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    10. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Ambrocio, Gene, 2019. "Measuring household uncertainty in EU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland.
    12. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe Andre & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Housing Returns and Volatility: Evidence from US State-Level Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    14. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    15. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    16. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    17. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 86-97, January.
    18. Linyan Dai & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Impact of Uncertainty on State-Level Housing Markets of the United States: The Role of Social Cohesion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-9, March.
    19. Soojin Jo & Justin J. Lee, 2019. "Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1904, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    21. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    23. Hankins, William B. & Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2022. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on state-level employment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    24. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Chung, Min-Su & Lim, Hyunjoon, 2024. "Transmission of external shocks and regional heterogeneity: Evidence from Korean province-level data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    26. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2025. "The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    27. Oguzhan Cepni & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting National Recessions of the United States with State-Level Climate Risks: Evidence from Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 202252, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    28. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    29. Azzouzi, asmae & Bousselhamia, Ahmed, 2021. "Impact des chocs d'incertitude liés au Covid-19 sur l’économie marocaine [Impact of uncertainty shocks related to the Covid-19 on the Moroccan economy]," MPRA Paper 110398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Alam, Ahmed W. & Farjana, Ashupta & Houston, Reza, 2023. "Firm investment steering through state-level policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).

  17. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    2. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    3. Maxand, Simone, 2020. "Identification of independent structural shocks in the presence of multiple Gaussian components," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 55-68.

  18. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "What do VARs Tell Us about the Impact of a Credit Supply Shock?," Working Papers 739, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2021. "Measuring credit crunch in Italy: evidence from a survey-based indicator," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 567-592, April.
    2. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    3. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2020. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2020-13, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    6. Borsuk, Marcin & Przeworska, Joanna & Saunders, Anthony & Serwa, Dobromił, 2024. "The macroeconomic costs of the bank tax," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. George J. Bratsiotis & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2020. "Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2014, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?," Staff Working Papers 19-38, Bank of Canada.
    9. Feng Min & Fenghua Wen & Jiayu Xu & Nan Wu, 2023. "Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2088-2108, April.
    10. Eul Noh, 2024. "Revisiting the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 943-951, August.
    11. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2015. "Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1528, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    13. Erkmen G. Aslim & Shin‐Yi Chou & Kuhelika De, 2024. "Business cycles and healthcare employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 2123-2161, September.
    14. David Finck & Paul Rudel, 2023. "Do credit supply shocks have asymmetric effects?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1559-1597, April.
    15. Daniel Kaufmann, 2017. "Is Deflation Costly After All? The Perils of Erroneous Historical Classifications," IRENE Working Papers 17-09, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    17. Maurin, Laurent & Andersson, Malin & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," EIB Working Papers 2021/09, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    18. Kwon, Dohyoung, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Credit Spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Andersson, Malin & Maurin, Laurent & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," Working Paper Series 2606, European Central Bank.
    20. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    21. Olli Palm'en, 2020. "Inflation Dynamics of Financial Shocks," Papers 2006.03301, arXiv.org.
    22. Elijah Broadbent & Huberto M. Ennis & Tyler Pike & Horacio Sapriza, 2024. "Bank Lending Standards and the U.S. Economy," Working Paper 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    23. Liyu Dou & Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik, 2023. "Max-Share Misidentification," Working Paper 25-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    24. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    25. Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    26. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    27. Bahadir, Berrak & De, Kuhelika & Lastrapes, William D., 2020. "Household debt, consumption and inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    28. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    29. Jentsch, Carsten & Lunsford, Kurt G., 2016. "Proxy SVARs : asymptotic theory, bootstrap inference, and the effects of income tax changes in the United States," Working Papers 16-10, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    30. Kuhelika De, 2025. "Asymmetric Shocks and the Role of Exchange Rate in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 607-649, April.
    31. Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Weakness of investment in Portugal: what role do credit supply and fiscal consolidation shocks play?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 19-45, February.
    32. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    33. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2026. "Review of Proxy Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2155, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    34. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    35. von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "The importance of credit demand for business cycle dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    36. Helmut Herwartz & Simone Maxand & Hannes Rohloff, 2022. "The Link between Monetary Policy, Stock Prices, and House Prices—Evidence from a Statistical Identification Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-53, December.
    37. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    38. Breitenlechner, Max & Mathy, Gabriel P. & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    39. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    40. Altavilla, Carlo & Pariès, Matthieu Darracq & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2019. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

  19. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in the UK," Working Papers 738, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on inequality in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 410-423.
    3. Dr. Ameenullah Aman & Dr. Usman Ahmad & Sumera Muhammad Saleem, 2021. "Investigating the Link Between Macroeconomic Factors and Income Inequality of Asian Countries," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 376-387, December.

  20. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 757, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2022. "Financial, Institutional, and Macroeconomic Determinants of Cross-Country Portfolio Equity Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 9872, CESifo.
    2. Kumar, Virender & Dua, Pami, 2024. "What explains foreign portfolio investment inflows to BRICS countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 32-46.
    3. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Beck, Krzysztof & Jackson, Karen, 2024. "Financial, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of cross-country portfolio equity flows: The case of developed countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
    5. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

  21. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 752, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Krzysztof Rybiński, 2023. "Anti-pandemic restrictions, uncertainty and sentiment in seven countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-27, February.
    4. Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Risk sharing in a world economy with uncertainty shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2015-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1713-1730, September.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," CEPR Discussion Papers 11911, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    8. Nektarios Aslanidis & Aurelio Bariviera & George Kapetanios & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2025. "Heterogeneous Exposures to Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk across Crypto Assets: A Divide-and-Conquer Approach," Papers 2506.21100, arXiv.org.
    9. Dario Bonciani & Joonseok Jason Oh, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    10. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    11. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Spillover among financial, industrial and consumer uncertainties. The case of EU member states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Bobasu, Alina & Geis, André & Quaglietti, Lucia & Ricci, Martino, 2021. "Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2541, European Central Bank.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Shen, Yifan & He, Jia & Shi, Xunpeng & Zeng, Ting, 2025. "Uncertainty, macroeconomic activity and commodity price: A global analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Choi, Sangyup, 2017. "Variability in the effects of uncertainty shocks: New stylized facts from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-144.
    20. Huang, Zhuo & Tong, Chen & Qiu, Han & Shen, Yan, 2018. "The spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the U.S. and China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 123-127.
    21. Chetan Dave & Scott Dressler & Samreen Malik, 2022. "A Cautionary Tale of Fat Tails," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    22. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.
    23. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    24. Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2024. "UK Foreign Direct Investment in uncertain economic times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    25. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    26. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "International Business Cycles and Risk Sharing with Uncertainty Shocks and Recursive Preferences," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-13, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    27. Shen, Yifan & Shi, Xunpeng & Zeng, Ting, 2017. "Global Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Activity and Commodity Price," MPRA Paper 90089, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Nov 2018.
    28. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
    29. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2025. "Liquidity constraints, real estate regulation, and local government debt risks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    30. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    31. Magkonis, Georgios & Rudkin, Simon & Zhang, Shuonan, 2024. "Re-examining international spillovers: An Asian perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    32. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    33. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    34. Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2024. "Uncertainty, Long‐Run, And Monetary Policy Risks In A Two‐Country Macro Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1387-1413, August.
    35. Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "Disentangling supply-side and demand-side effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. financial markets: Identification using prices of gold and oil," Discussion Papers 10/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    37. Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    38. Cross, Jamie & Kam, Timothy & Poon, Aubrey, 2025. "Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    39. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty," IREA Working Papers 202011, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    40. Fernandes, Marcelo & Paye, Bradley & Roma, Carolina Magda da Silva, 2025. "The equity premium and the disconnect between uncertainty and volatility: A global perspective," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    41. Syeda Beena Zaidi & Abidullah Khan & Shabeer Khan & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Wadi B. Alonazi & Abul Ala Noman, 2023. "Connectedness between Pakistan’s Stock Markets with Global Factors: An Application of Quantile VAR Network Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    42. Sun, Yunpeng & Lu, Zhou & Bao, Qun & Li, Ying & Li, Haoning, 2022. "The Belt & Road Initiative and the public and private debts of participating countries: The role of China's economic policy uncertainty," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 179-193.
    43. Joseph P. Byrne & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Global and Country-Specific Climate Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 655-682, March.
    44. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    45. Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Tang, Guohao & Chen, Jian, 2025. "External trade policy uncertainty, corporate risk exposure, and stock market volatility," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    46. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2025. "US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    47. Wu, Chao & Zhao, Ke & Liu, Jinquan & Zhao, Xiuyi, 2024. "Cross-country spillovers of trade uncertainty and their formation mechanisms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    48. Suh, Hyunduk & Yang, Jin Young, 2021. "Global uncertainty and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty: Different implications for firm investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    49. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    50. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    51. Korobilis, Dimitris & Schröder, Maximilian, 2025. "Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    52. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    53. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    54. Gu, Zhenhua & Gu, Chen & Zhang, Chengping, 2025. "Analyst forecast behavior under trade uncertainty: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).
    55. Shen, Yifan, 2020. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A historical perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    56. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    57. Shambaugh, Jay C. & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Interest rates across the world: Global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    58. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    59. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    60. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    61. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    62. Helena Chuliá & Rangan Gupta & Jorge M. Uribe & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Impact of US Uncertainties on Emerging and Mature Markets: Evidence from a Quantile-Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Papers 201656, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    63. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," Working papers 69, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    65. Beckmann, Joscha & Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "On the effects of global uncertainty shocks on portfolio flows," Discussion Papers 23/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    66. Sheung-Chi Chow & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Causal Relationships between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns in China and India: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Panel and Time Series Models," Working Papers 201674, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    67. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    68. Marcelo Arbex & Michael Batu & Sidney Caetano, 2020. "Stay At Home! Macroeconomic Effects of Pandemic-Induced Job Separation Shocks," Working Papers 2002, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    69. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2023. "Estimation of the variance function in structural break autoregressive models with non‐stationary and explosive segments," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 181-205, March.
    70. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "Risk Sharing, the Exchange Rate and Net Foreign Assets in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 721, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    71. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    72. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    73. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    74. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
    75. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.
    76. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    77. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    78. Wu, Chao & Zhao, Ke & Liu, Jinquan, 2025. "Trade uncertainty and macroeconomic performance: An empirical analysis based on cross-country data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    79. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Qatar-Gulf Crisis and Risk Management in Oil and Gas Markets," Working Papers hal-02101633, HAL.
    80. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    81. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    82. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Forecasting Exchange Rate Returns and Realized Volatility: Evidence from Quantile Predictive Regressions," Working Papers 201774, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    83. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    84. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-León, Danilo, 2022. "Fluctuations in global output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    85. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    86. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    87. Li, Li & Tang, Yao & Xiang, Jingjie, 2020. "Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    88. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    89. Baxa, Jaromír & Šestořád, Tomáš, 2025. "Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    90. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    91. Hwang, So Jung & Suh, Hyunduk, 2021. "Overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    92. Wu, Ping, 2024. "Should I open to forecast? Implications from a multi-country unobserved components model with sparse factor stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 903-917.
    93. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    94. Ren, Xiyu & Marotta, Fulvia & Lafond, François, 2025. "Do common shocks drive changes in aggregate emissions intensity?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2025-15, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2026.
    95. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    96. Camacho, Maximo & Caro, Angela & Peña, Daniel, 2023. "What drives industrial energy prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    97. Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Europe: Spillovers and Common Shocks," Working Papers 2024/9, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

  22. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR models: fat tails and stochastic volatility," Bank of England working papers 528, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    4. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Walid Mansour & Hechem Ajmi & Karima Saci, 2022. "Regulatory policies in the global Islamic banking sector in the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 265-287, September.
    6. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    8. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021. "Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
    9. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2024. "Fast and order‐invariant inference in Bayesian VARs with nonparametric shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1301-1320, November.
    10. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    11. Mumtaz, Haroon & Ruch, Franz Ulrich, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations : Evidence from Emerging and Developed Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10564, The World Bank.
    12. Christian Hotz-Behofsits & Florian Huber & Thomas O. Zorner, 2018. "Predicting crypto-currencies using sparse non-Gaussian state space models," Papers 1801.06373, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    13. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Galdi, Giulio & Casarin, Roberto & Ferrari, Davide & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    16. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    17. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
    18. Kiss, Tamás & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Corona, Crisis and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Working Papers 2020:2, Örebro University, School of Business.
    19. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    20. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    21. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    22. Liu, Xiaochun, 2019. "On tail fatness of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    23. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    24. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARs: A flexible Kronecker error covariance structure," CAMA Working Papers 2015-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    26. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    27. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    28. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    29. Ishaya Tambari & Pierre Failler, 2020. "Determining If Oil Prices Significantly Affect Renewable Energy Investment in African Countries with Energy Security Concerns," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    30. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An Automated Prior Robustness Analysis in Bayesian Model Comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2024. "Taxes, Innovation and Productivity," Working Papers 979, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    32. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
    33. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Darius Palia & Karthik A. Sastry & Christopher A. Sims, 2019. "Feedbacks: Financial Markets and Economic Activity," Working Papers 257, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    34. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2023. "DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 69-111, January.
    35. Bui, Huynh Tuan Duy & Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2025. "Central bank announcements and monitoring portfolio risks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    36. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H. & Sun, Chuanwang, 2024. "Forecasting oil prices: Can large BVARs help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    37. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
    38. Ellington, Michael, 2022. "Fat tails, serial dependence, and implied volatility index connections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 768-779.
    39. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: an application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1234, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    41. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    42. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    43. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    44. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2020. "High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗," Working Papers 20-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    45. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    46. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    47. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2020. "The effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    49. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "Research on China's financial systemic risk contagion under jump and heavy-tailed risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    50. Praveen Kumar Tripathi & Manika Agarwal, 2024. "A Bayes Analysis of Random Walk Model Under Different Error Assumptions," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 1635-1652, October.
    51. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    52. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    53. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2023. "Forecasting extreme financial risk: A score-driven approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 720-735.
    54. Joel Hinaunye Eita & Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo, 2022. "Quantifying Foreign Exchange Risk in the Selected Listed Sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange: An SV-EVT Pairwise Copula Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, April.
    55. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    56. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    57. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan, 2020. "Flexible Fat-tailed Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 2020:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    58. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2019. "A Sieve-SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models," Papers 1902.01456, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    59. David Kohns & Galina Potjagailo, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    60. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas," Working Papers 970, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    61. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    62. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    63. Haroon Mumtaz & Sofia Velasco, 2026. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility," Papers 2604.03681, arXiv.org.

  23. Q. Farooq Akram & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "The role of oil prices and monetary policy in the Norwegian economy since the 1980s," Working Paper 2016/1, Norges Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Filardo & Jacopo Lombardi & Carlos Montoro, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers, global commodity prices and cooperation," BIS Working Papers 696, Bank for International Settlements.

  24. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "The Changing Transmission of Uncertainty shocks in the US: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 735, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks in India - Gli effetti macroeconomici degli shock di incertezza in India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 373-383.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    3. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2018. "The State‐Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1879-1899, December.

  25. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2014. "Fat-tails in VAR Models," Working Papers 714, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    3. Michal Franta, 2015. "Rare Shocks vs. Non-linearities: What Drives Extreme Events in the Economy? Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2015/04, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time-varying parameter regression models with stochastic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 10-14.

  26. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2014. "The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 10083, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Beutler, Toni & Gubler, Matthias & Hauri, Simona & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Bank lending in Switzerland: Driven by business models and exposed to uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Li, Zehao, 2022. "Financial intermediary leverage and monetary policy transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Marian Vavra, 2023. "Bias-Correction in Time Series Quantile Regression Models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    5. Korobilis, Dimitris & Schröder, Maximilian, 2025. "Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    6. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    7. Robert Wojciechowski, 2024. "A Structural Approach to Growth-at-Risk," Papers 2410.04431, arXiv.org.
    8. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Papers 2305.09563, arXiv.org.
    9. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    10. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Wang, Lu & Luo, Gong-li & Sharif, Arshian & Dinca, Gheorghita, 2021. "Asymmetric dynamics and quantile dependency of the resource curse in the USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Lee, Dong Jin & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2021. "Impulse response analysis in conditional quantile models with an application to monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

  27. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.

    Cited by:

    1. Luccas Assis Attílio, 2025. "When global tensions hit the table: geopolitical risk and Brazil’s food prices," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Japan Huynh, 2025. "Banking uncertainty and corporate financial constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 626-651, January.
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and the great recession: Nonlinearities matter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    6. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    7. Freund, L. B & Rendahl, P., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2035, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Yang, Mo & Zou, Yihan & Li, Ding & Qin, Zhilong, 2025. "Financial uncertainty shocks and systemic risk: Revealing the risk spillover from the oil market to the stock market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    9. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    10. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    11. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2024. "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    14. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Haque, Qazi & Magnusson, Leandro M., 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    18. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2021. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Papers 2112.01995, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    20. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Fabio Bertolotti & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2019. "Tax shocks with high and low uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 972-993, September.
    22. Davide Brignone & Luca Gambetti & Martino Ricci, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    23. Engin Kara & Ahmed Pirzada, 2021. "Evaluating effectiveness of price level targeting in the presence of increasing uncertainty," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/737, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    24. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2017. "The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1052-1064.
    25. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    26. Yin, Libo & Zhang, Jier & Li, Ying, 2025. "Firm financialization: The role of policy inconsistency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    27. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    28. Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2016. "Nonlinearities of mortgage spreads over the business cycles," Bank of England working papers 634, Bank of England.
    29. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel, 2025. "The economic implications of oil supply uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    30. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    31. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    32. Martin Hodula & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and Measurements," Working Papers 2024/8, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    33. Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
    34. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    35. Yoshito Funashima, 2024. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to permanent and transitory shocks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(1), pages 267-282, January.
    36. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    37. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2020. "Financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty: a case for timely policy action," Working Papers 687, DNB.
    39. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    40. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    41. Cipollini, Andrea & Mikaliunaite, Ieva, 2020. "Macro-uncertainty and financial stress spillovers in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 546-558.
    42. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1639, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    43. Liu, Wei & Garrett, Ian, 2023. "Regime-dependent effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on realized volatility in the U.S. stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    44. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    45. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0275, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    46. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    47. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    48. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    49. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "The confidence channel of U.S. financial uncertainty: Evidence from industry-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    50. Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    51. Jalloul, Maya & Miescu, Mirela, 2023. "Equity market connectedness across regimes of geopolitical risks: Historical evidence and theory," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    52. John Aguirre & Alan Ledesma & Fernando Perez & Youel Rojas, 2025. "Economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy after extreme weather events: ENSO and its economic impact on the Peruvian economy," BIS Working Papers 1276, Bank for International Settlements.
    53. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    54. Tommaso Gasparini, 2025. "Imperfect Banking Competition and the Propagation of Uncertainty Shocks," Working papers 997, Banque de France.
    55. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    56. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2022. "The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 313-340, December.
    57. Freund, L. B. & Lee, H. & Rendahl, P., 2022. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2251, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    58. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    59. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2025_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    60. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    61. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    62. Sangyup Choi & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," Working papers 2019rwp-142, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    63. Marco Brianti, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-05, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    64. Bettarelli, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Shakoor, Nadia, 2024. "Uncertainty and innovation in renewable energy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    65. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2016-19, CEPII research center.
    66. Michele Piffer & Maximilian Podstawski, 2017. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6327, CESifo.
    67. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    68. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    69. Härtl, Tilmann, 2022. "Identifying Proxy VARs with Restrictions on the Forecast Error Variance," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264071, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    2. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.

  29. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Labor Market Dynamics: a Time-varying Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 728, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Qureshi, Irfan A., 2021. "The Role Of Money In Federal Reserve Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2037-2057, December.
    2. Olli-Matti Juhani Laine, 2020. "The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2899-2924, December.
    3. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10930, CESifo.
    6. Moura, Guilherme V. & Noriller, Mateus R., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a TVP-VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 78-83.
    7. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
    8. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Melosi, Leonardo & Rogantini Picco, Anna & Morita, Hiroshi & Zanetti, Francesco, 2025. "The signaling effects of fiscal announcements," Working Paper Series 3110, European Central Bank.
    10. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
    11. Cross, Jamie & Kam, Timothy & Poon, Aubrey, 2025. "Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Magnus Reif, 2021. "Time-Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9271, CESifo.
    14. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    15. Crawley, Andrew & Welch, Sarah & Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Improving estimates of job matching efficiency with different measures of unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    17. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Josh Beverly & Shamar L. Stewart & Clinton L. Neill, 2023. "The dynamics of labor force participation: Is all quiet on the Appalachian front?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2867-2898, December.
    19. Maximilian Boeck & Christian Glocker, 2025. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission," WIFO Working Papers 713, WIFO.
    20. Zens, Gregor & Böck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2020. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the US labor market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    21. Michael Ellington & Chris Martin & Bingsong Wang, 2024. "Evolving Beveridge Curve Dynamics," Working Papers 2024007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    22. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.
    23. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Hjelm, Linnéa, 2026. "The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!," Working Paper Series 3180, European Central Bank.

  30. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 977, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
    3. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2021. "The simpler, the better: Measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," EIB Working Papers 2021/10, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    5. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl Habermeier & Vikram Haksar & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.

  31. Andrea Carriero & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2013. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error. A Proxy SVAR Approach," Working Papers 707, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Angus Moore, 2016. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Angelini, Giovanni & Fanelli, Luca, 2018. "Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," MPRA Paper 93864, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2019.
    4. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2024. "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    7. Hu, Chunyang & Zhou, Yang, 2025. "Do domestic and US economic policy uncertainty increase China’s macro-financial risk connectedness?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2016. "Incorporating economic policy uncertainty in US equity premium models: A nonlinear predictability analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 291-296.
    10. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2017. "The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1052-1064.
    11. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    13. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    14. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford," Working Papers 1805, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
    16. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Yoshito Funashima, 2024. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to permanent and transitory shocks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(1), pages 267-282, January.
    18. Alsalman, Zeina & Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "Oil news shocks and the U.S. stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Eul Noh, 2024. "Revisiting the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 943-951, August.
    20. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1639, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    21. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in OECD countries: how important is the extent of policy uncertainty?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 683-703, July.
    22. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    23. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2015. "Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1528, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    24. Martin Bruns, 2019. "Proxy VAR models in a data-rich environment," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-03, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    25. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    26. Hauzenberger, Niko & Böck, Maximilian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna & Zens, Gregor, 2018. "Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area," ESRB Working Paper Series 80, European Systemic Risk Board.
    27. Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Working Papers 2020-16, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    28. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    29. Muhammad Mohsin & Mohammad Nurunnabi & Jijian Zhang & Huaping Sun & Nadeem Iqbal & Robina Iram & Qaiser Abbas, 2021. "The evaluation of efficiency and value addition of IFRS endorsement towards earnings timeliness disclosure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1793-1807, April.
    30. Ryan Hanson & Ana María Herrera, 2025. "The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction," Working Papers 25-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    31. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    32. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    33. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    34. Michele Piffer & Maximilian Podstawski, 2017. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6327, CESifo.
    35. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    36. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotić, 2020. "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    38. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    39. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    40. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0234, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    41. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    42. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 7900, CESifo.
    43. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
    44. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, 2025. "Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    45. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    46. Alhussaini, Abdullah & Parhi, Mamata, 2022. "How do economies adjust speed at uncertain times?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    47. Kim, Wongi, 2019. "Government spending policy uncertainty and economic activity: US time series evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    48. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
    49. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    50. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Under Global and Spillover Uncertainty Shocks: What Do the Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR, Local Projections, and Vector Error Correction Model Tell Us in Tunisia?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-74, March.
    51. Carlos Canizares Martinez & Arne Gieseck, 2024. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: A FAVAR approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    52. Ryan, Michael & Holmes, Mark J., 2025. "The effect of uncertainty on output: Instruments, identification, and the role of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    53. Jentsch, Carsten & Lunsford, Kurt G., 2016. "Proxy SVARs : asymptotic theory, bootstrap inference, and the effects of income tax changes in the United States," Working Papers 16-10, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    54. Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "DSGE Priors for BVAR Models," Working Papers 713, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    55. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    56. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    57. Andrea Giovanni Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2019. "Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Higher Frequency Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 855, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    58. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    59. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    60. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2026. "Review of Proxy Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2155, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    61. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment Goods," Discussion papers e-16-015, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    62. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2021. "Uncertainty‐driven business cycles: Assessing the markup channel," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 587-623, May.
    64. Karin Klieber, 2023. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Papers 2309.04821, arXiv.org.
    65. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    66. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2019. "Deconstructing uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 22-41.
    67. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    68. Helena Chuliá & Rangan Gupta & Jorge M. Uribe & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Impact of US Uncertainties on Emerging and Mature Markets: Evidence from a Quantile-Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Papers 201656, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    69. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    70. Sheung-Chi Chow & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Causal Relationships between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns in China and India: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Panel and Time Series Models," Working Papers 201674, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    71. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    72. Ricardo Caballero & Güneş Kamber, 2019. "On the global Impact of risk-off shocks and policy-put frameworks," BIS Working Papers 772, Bank for International Settlements.
    73. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    74. Syed M. Hussain, Zara Liaqat, 2025. "News Shocks, Consumer Confidence, and Business Cycles," LCERPA Working Papers jc0155, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Apr 2025.
    75. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    76. Wei‐Fong Pan & James Reade & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Measuring US regional economic uncertainty," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1149-1178, September.
    77. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    78. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2026. "Review of Proxy Vector and Autoregressive Analysis," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2026-01, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    79. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2016. "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    80. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Qatar-Gulf Crisis and Risk Management in Oil and Gas Markets," Working Papers hal-02101633, HAL.
    81. Cafiso, Gianluca & Missale, Alessandro & Rivolta, Giulia, 2025. "The credit channel of the sovereign spread: A Bayesian SVAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    82. Daniele Valenti, 2022. "Modelling the Global Price of Oil:Is there any Role for the Oil Futures-spot Spread?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(2), pages 41-66, March.
    83. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    84. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2023. "An Alternative Bootstrap for Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1857-1882, December.
    85. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    86. Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2025. "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 395-410, June.
    87. Klieber, Karin, 2024. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    88. Massaporn Cheuathonghua & Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Pattana Boonchoo & Jittima Tongurai, 2019. "Extreme spillovers of VIX fear index to international equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(1), pages 1-38, March.
    89. Ambrocio, Gene, 2022. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022, Bank of Finland.
    90. Joshy Easaw & Christian Grimme, 2021. "The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 8934, CESifo.
    91. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    92. G. Angelini & L. Fanelli, 2018. "Identification and estimation issues in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," Working Papers wp1122, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    93. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  32. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "The Effect of Labor and Financial Frictions on Aggregate Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 690, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2015. "Factor adjustment costs: A structural investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 341-355.
    2. Matteo Coronese & Isabelle Salle, 2018. "The "Rajan Hypothesis": a counter-factual experiment," LEM Papers Series 2018/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    4. Cristina Fuentes-Albero, 2018. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2019. "Jobless recoveries: The interaction between financial and search frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01082491, HAL.
    7. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Unemployment fluctuations in a small open-economy model with segmented labour markets: The case of Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 6-20.
    9. Pinter, Gabor, 2015. "House prices and job losses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86318, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Tatiana Kirsanova & Charles Nolan & Maryam Shafiei Deh Abad, 2016. "Deep Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Working Papers 2016_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Matsue, Toyoki, 2022. "Role of worker flows in the relationship between job offers and employment," MPRA Paper 115316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Thepthida Sopraseuth & François Langot & Eleni Iliopulos, 2016. "Welfare Cost of Fluctuations when Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions," 2016 Meeting Papers 890, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Nolan, Charles & Shafiei, Maryam, 2021. "Deep recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 310-323.
    14. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
    15. Alexey Ponomarenko & Stas Tatarintsev, 2020. "Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps58, Bank of Russia.
    16. Clymo, Alex, 2020. "Discounts, rationing, and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082491, HAL.
    18. Ichiro Muto & Nao Sudo & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2023. "Productivity Slowdown in Japan's Lost Decades: How Much of It Can Be Attributed to Damaged Balance Sheets?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 159-207, February.
    19. Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Financial factors and labor market fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-44.
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    22. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Olivero, Maria Pia, 2020. "Lending relationships and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo.
    2. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    3. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    4. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    5. Goswami, Samrat & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Historical volatility of advanced equity markets: The role of local and global crises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    6. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Emre Sakar & Mahmut Unsal Sasmaz & Ahmet Ozen, 2025. "The Nexus Between Tax Revenue, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-34, July.
    8. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Cui Jinxin & Zou Huiwen, 2020. "Connectedness Among Economic Policy Uncertainties: Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domain Perspectives," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(5), pages 401-433, October.
    11. Guo, Junjie & Tang, Li & Xie, Shihan & Yin, Penghui, 2025. "Navigating fiscal fog: Household expectations in an uncertain fiscal environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    12. Popiel Michal Ksawery, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and US output," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2017. "The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1052-1064.
    14. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    15. Wei Que & Yanni Yu, 2026. "Tax policy uncertainty and green total factor productivity: a spatial analysis based on prefecture-level city data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 75(1), pages 1-42, March.
    16. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2020. "Financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty: a case for timely policy action," Working Papers 687, DNB.
    17. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Greek economic policy uncertainty: Does it matter for Europe? Evidence from a dynamic connectedness decomposition approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    19. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Yi Zhang & Mengyang Wang & Tao Shi & Huan Huang & Qi Huang, 2023. "Health Damage of Air Pollution, Governance Uncertainty and Economic Growth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-21, February.
    21. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    22. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Bijapur, Mohan, 2014. "What Drives Business Cycle Fluctuations: Aggregate or Idiosyncratic Uncertainty Shocks?," MPRA Paper 60361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Xuejun Jin & Xue Zhou & Xiaolan Yang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4783-4806, December.
    25. Yuchen Lin & Daxin Dong & Jiaxin Wang, 2021. "The Negative Impact of Uncertainty on R&D Investment: International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
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    27. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    28. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
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    30. Sangyup Choi & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," Working papers 2019rwp-142, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    31. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    33. Wen, Jun & Duan, Hai-Peng & Chang, Chun-Ping & Zhao, Xin-Xin, 2025. "The impact of country risk on innovation: Global evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(2).
    34. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    35. D. A. Petrova, 2025. "Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 26-39, October.
    36. Jan Prüser & Alexander Schlösser, 2020. "On the Time‐Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the US Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(5), pages 1217-1237, October.
    37. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wadström, Christoffer & Sharmi, Rubaiya Zaman, 2022. "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    38. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
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    40. Wei Yang & Yifu Zhang & Yuan Hu, 2022. "Heterogeneous Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Provincial Environmental Pollution Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-13, April.
    41. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-country co-movement in long-term interest rates: a DSGE approach," Bank of England working papers 530, Bank of England.
    42. Lester, Rebecca & Olbert, Marcel, 2025. "Firms’ real and reporting responses to taxation: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2).
    43. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    44. Assad Ullah & İbrahim Özmen & Azaz Ali Ather Bukhari & Amber Pervaiz & Waqar Ali Ather Bukhari & Hina Shahzadi, 2025. "The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Business and Consumer Confidence: A Quantile-Based Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(6), pages 17912-17939, December.
    45. Yunpeng Su & Jia Li & Baochen Yang & Yunbi An, 2024. "The Impacts of Policy Uncertainty on Asset Prices: Evidence from China’s Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 1087-1133, December.
    46. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    47. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Eduardo Schirmer Finn, 2022. "Can credibility offset electricity price effect on business confidence? An empirical investigation from a large emerging economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 1229-1242, March.
    48. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    49. Bin Wang & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood, 2024. "R&D Spending and Economic Policy Uncertainty in Asian Countries: an Advanced Panel Data Estimation Study," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 4710-4729, March.
    50. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    51. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    52. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    53. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Less bang for the buck? Assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 358, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    54. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2021. "Data Revisions and the Effects of Monetary Policy Volatility," MPRA Paper 107581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    56. Yujia, Li & Zixiang, Zhu & Ming, Che, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous responses?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    57. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    58. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Che, Ming & Wang, Li & Li, Yujia, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price uncertainty: Which is more important for global economic activity?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    60. Moustapha Badran & Mohamed Awada & Joanna Darwiche & Whelsy Boungou, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Post-Print hal-05083249, HAL.
    61. Nguyen Ba Trung, 2022. "Output fluctuations and portfolio flows to emerging economies: The role of monetary uncertainty," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 285-295, December.
    62. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    63. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    64. Helena Chuliá & Rangan Gupta & Jorge M. Uribe & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Impact of US Uncertainties on Emerging and Mature Markets: Evidence from a Quantile-Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Papers 201656, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    65. Sheung-Chi Chow & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Causal Relationships between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns in China and India: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Panel and Time Series Models," Working Papers 201674, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    66. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    67. Silvia Dal Bianco & Nguyen Cong To Loan, 2017. "FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, February.
    68. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    69. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2017. "Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks: Learning from Heterogeneous Responses on a Panel of EU Countries," Working Papers 2017/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    70. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    71. Jodonnis Rodriguez & James Saunoris, 2025. "The influence of macro-financial conditions on consumer spending through sentiment," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(4), pages 963-985, December.
    72. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Su Dinh Thanh & Bach Nguyen, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and tourism consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 920-941, June.
    73. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    2. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    5. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    7. Pietro Alessandrini & Òscar Jordà & Fabrizio Venditti, 2023. "Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Sarah Vella, 2025. "Constructing a country-specific indicator for cyclical systemic risk," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-63, June.
    9. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    10. Hamza Bennani & Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model," Working Paper Series 2020-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    11. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    12. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2017. "How to predict financial stress? An assessment of Markov switching models," Working Paper Series 2057, European Central Bank.
    13. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Martin Iseringhausen, 2021. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," Working Papers 49, European Stability Mechanism.
    16. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
    18. Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino & Laust L. Særkjær, 2025. "The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier," CESifo Working Paper Series 11853, CESifo.
    20. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Fusun Celebi Boz & Melike Torun, 2024. "Do Economic and Financial Stabilities Matter for Political Stability in Estonia?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15202-15217, September.
    22. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    24. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    26. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    27. Alahverdi, Atefe & Daei-Karimzadeh, Saeed & Ghobadi, Sara, 2023. "Forecasting the Trend of Macroeconomic Variables in Terms of Financial Conditions Index in Iran: TVP-FAVAR Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(3), pages 161-185, December.
    28. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    29. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
    31. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Forecasting Inflation with a Zero Lower Bound or Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from Point and Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9687, CESifo.
    32. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    33. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    34. Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    35. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Leonardo Del Vecchio & Arianna Miglietta, 2019. "Financial Conditions and 'Growth at Risk' in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    36. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    37. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé & Thompson, Kirsten & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2018. "Comparing the forecasting ability of financial conditions indices: The case of South Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 245-259.
    38. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    39. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Toshitaka Gokan & Sergey Kichko & Jacques-François Thisse, 2018. "How Do Trade and Communication Costs Shape the Spatial Organization Of Firms?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 191/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    41. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    42. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    43. Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez & Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, 2021. "Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1165, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    44. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
    45. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2021. "The simpler, the better: Measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," EIB Working Papers 2021/10, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    46. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    47. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    48. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    49. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    50. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2020. "Radial basis functions neural networks for nonlinear time series analysis and time-varying effects of supply shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    51. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach," Working Papers 20-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    52. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    53. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    54. Gargiulo, Valeria & Matthes, Christian & Petrova, Katerina, 2025. "Monetary policy across inflation regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    55. Graziano Moramarco, 2025. "Regime‐Switching Density Forecasts Using Economists' Scenarios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 833-845, March.
    56. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    57. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula, 2018. "A Profit-to-Provisioning Approach to Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Czech Example," Working Papers 2018/5, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    58. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio Maria Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "The financial stability dark side of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1121, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    59. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    60. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    61. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle through the MIDAS Lens," CESifo Working Paper Series 10062, CESifo.
    62. Baek, Ingul & Liu, Jia & Noh, Sanha, 2024. "Real estate uncertainty and financial conditions over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 656-675.
    63. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    64. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    65. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    66. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    67. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    68. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
    69. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    70. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    71. Moritz A. Roth, 2018. "International co-movements in recessions," Working Papers 1804, Banco de España.
    72. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei‐Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2024. "Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 5-33, February.
    73. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    74. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    75. Capasso Salvatore & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Vivero, 2023. "The Financial Conditions Index as an additional tool for policymakers in developing countries: the Mexican case," CSEF Working Papers 664, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    76. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    77. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    78. Joerg Schmidt, 2019. "Risk, Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission in Europe: Evidence from a Threshold-VAR approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201928, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    79. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
    80. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," BIS Working Papers 716, Bank for International Settlements.
    81. Martin Harding & Rafael Wouters, 2022. "Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions," Staff Working Papers 22-37, Bank of Canada.

  35. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Factor adjustment costs: a structural investigation," Bank of England working papers 467, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Amundsen, Alexander, 2023. "Interaction effects in the adjustment cost function of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Xu, Le & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2025. "The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Kudoh, Noritaka & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2025. "Robots, AI, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Nadine Yamout & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Dutch Disease, Unemployment and Structural Change," Working Papers 262, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Francesco Zanetti & Federico S. Mandelman, 2013. "Flexible prices, labor market frictions and the response of employment to technology shocks," Economics Series Working Papers 683, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Leonardo Melosi & Eran Yashiv & Renato Faccini, 2016. "Hiring and Investment Frictions as Inflation Determinants," 2016 Meeting Papers 1606, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Diwambuena, Josué & Fonseca, Raquel & Schubert, Stefan, 2025. "Labor market institutions, productivity, and the business cycle: An application to Italy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Hirokazu Mizobata & Hiroki Toyoda, 2016. "Business Cycles, Asset Prices, and the Frictions of Capital and Labor," KIER Working Papers 953, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Epstein, Brendan & Mukherjee, Rahul & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Ramnath, Shanthi, 2020. "Trends in aggregate employment, hours worked per worker, and the long-run labor wedge," MPRA Paper 99289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2020. "The Minimum Wage Puzzle in Less Developed Countries: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2020/023, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Braun, Sebastian & Weber, Henning, 2016. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Kiel Working Papers 2025, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    13. Karp, Larry & Rezai, Armon, 2017. "Asset prices and climate policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6fx579fp, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    14. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    15. Juan Carlos Parra‐Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2023. "Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Likelihood Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 304-330, April.
    16. Ako Viou Bahun-Wilson, 2022. "On the Role of Product Quality in Product Reallocation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 22-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    17. Tang, Le, 2022. "The dynamic demand for capital and labor: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    18. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "On Quality and Variety Bias in Aggregate Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1343-1363, September.
    19. Eran Yashiv & Renato Faccini, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Marginal Costs: the Crucial Role of Hiring and Investment Frictions," 2014 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Investment dynamics and forecast: Mind the frequency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

  36. Christiane Baumeister & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Changes in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Staff Working Papers 12-13, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach," Working Papers 16.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    3. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    4. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    5. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    6. Sofia Velasco, 2025. "Let the Tree Decide: FABART A Non-Parametric Factor Model," Papers 2506.11551, arXiv.org.
    7. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    8. Antoine Mandel & Davoud Taghawi-Nejad & Vipin Veetil, 2019. "The price effects of monetary shocks in a network economy," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02334593, HAL.
    9. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    10. Ying Lun Cheung, 2024. "Identification of Time-Varying Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 76-94, January.
    11. Nuwat Nookhwun & Pym Manopimoke, 2023. "Disaggregated Inflation Dynamics in Thailand: Which Shocks Matter?," PIER Discussion Papers 211, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    12. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 377-381, May.
    13. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Phan, Tuan, 2016. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Aggressive, But Less Effective Over Time?," MPRA Paper 107200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Velasco, Sofia, 2024. "Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian quantile factor augmented VAR," Working Paper Series 2983, European Central Bank.
    16. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    17. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-128.
    18. Gregory E. Givens & Robert R. Reed, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Investment Dynamics: Evidence from Disaggregate Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1851-1878, December.
    19. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    21. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    22. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    23. Asharani Samal & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilise Food Inflation in India? Evidence From Quantile Regression Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 361-372, September.
    24. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2024. "The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
    25. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    26. Reed, Robert R. & Ume, Ejindu S., 2019. "Housing, liquidity risk, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-162.
    27. Allayioti, Anastasia & Gόrnicka, Lucyna & Holton, Sarah & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price data," Working Paper Series 3003, European Central Bank.
    28. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    29. Enders, Zeno, 2017. "Heterogeneous consumers, segmented asset markets, and the real effects of monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168227, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    30. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    31. Vipin P. Veetil & Lawrence H. White, 2017. "Towards a New Austrian Macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 19-38, March.
    32. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Skretting, 2024. "The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time‐varying effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1000-1020, September.

  37. Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    2. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan supply shocks in Macedonia: a Bayesian SVAR approach with sign restrictions," Working Papers 2016-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Rodion Lomivorotov, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    5. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.

  38. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    2. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    4. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    5. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    6. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Cho, Daeha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks, precautionary pricing, and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Joonseok Oh & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2025. "Macro Uncertainty, Unemployment Risk, And Consumption Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 287-312, February.
    9. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
    10. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    11. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Joonseok Oh, 2020. "The Propagation Of Uncertainty Shocks: Rotemberg Versus Calvo," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1097-1113, August.
    13. Dario Bonciani & Martino Ricci, 2020. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 863, Bank of England.
    14. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel, 2025. "The economic implications of oil supply uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, 2022. "Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial realms overlap," Working Papers wp1174, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    16. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    17. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    18. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    20. Ken Miyajima, 2020. "Exchange rate volatility and pass‐through to inflation in South Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 404-418, September.
    21. Junyi Tian & Guixian Tian & Jia Wang, 2025. "Does economic policy uncertainty and stock market development affect natural resources: Evidence from United States of America," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 2640-2661, August.
    22. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Caglayan, Mustafa & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2016. "Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 75250, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2016.
    24. Pastorek, Daniel & Kapounek, Svatopluk & Albrecht, Peter, 2025. "The systemic nature of European uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    25. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
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    27. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    28. Wensheng, Kang & Ratti, Ronald & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy and Large Developed and Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 82188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    30. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    33. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    35. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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    37. Yuting Gong & Zhongzhi He & Wenjun Xue, 2023. "EPU spillovers and sovereign CDS spreads: A cross‐country study," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1770-1806, December.
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    41. OH, Joonseok, 2019. "The propagation of uncertainty shocks : Rotemberg vs. Calvo," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/01, European University Institute.
    42. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 752, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    43. Fontaine, Idriss & Razafindravaosolonirina, Justinien & Didier, Laurent, 2018. "Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-19.
    44. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-country co-movement in long-term interest rates: a DSGE approach," Bank of England working papers 530, Bank of England.
    45. Liyan Han & Mengchao Qi & Libo Yin, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4907-4921, November.
    46. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    47. Aidi Tang, 2023. "Financial Integration and International Dynamics: The Role of Volatility Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    48. Ameet Kumar & Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro & Rakesh Kumar & Niaz Hussain Ghumro & Sarfraz Ahmed Dakhan & Vikesh Kumar, 2020. "Decomposing the Effect of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on Real and Financial Sectors: Evidence from BRIC Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-23, December.
    49. Giovanni Marin & Marco Modica, 2021. "Local demand shocks and firms' survival: An application to the Italian economy during the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 745-775, June.
    50. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
    51. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    52. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    53. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    54. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    55. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    56. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 135-155, May.
    57. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    58. Will Dison & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Do macro shocks matter for equities?," Bank of England working papers 692, Bank of England.
    59. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-282.
    60. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    61. Md Rafayet Alam, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for Canada?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2725-2732.
    62. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack, 2017. "Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    63. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Financial and nonfinancial global stock market volatility shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 128-134.
    64. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    65. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    66. Dario Bonciani & Andrea Tafuro, 2018. "The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Daily Prices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 89-104, April.
    67. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    68. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    69. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2013. "The Role of Financial Depth on the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2013007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    70. Ma, Dan & Zhang, Chuan & Hui, Yarong & Xu, Bing, 2022. "Economic uncertainty spillover and social networks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 454-467.
    71. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    72. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    73. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    74. Sanha Noh, 2020. "Posterior Inference on Parameters in a Nonlinear DSGE Model via Gaussian-Based Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 795-841, December.
    75. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2020. "Revising the Impact of Financial and Non-Financial Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks," MPRA Paper 103019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    77. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    78. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhou, Jinlan & Du, Xiaodong, 2022. "Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    79. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    80. Meng Yan & Kai Shi, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from China’s Investment Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 457-495, July.
    81. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    82. Diogo Abry Guillen & Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2025. "Monetary policy decision making and communication under heightened uncertainty in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 39-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    83. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    84. Morita, Hiroshi & Yuasa, Shiro, 2022. "Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks : State-dependency and Asymmetry," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP22-6, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    85. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    86. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    87. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    88. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    89. Angelini Giovanni & Costantini Mauro & Easaw Joshy, 2024. "Estimating uncertainty spillover effects across euro area using a regime dependent VAR model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 39-59, February.
    90. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2018. "The State‐Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1879-1899, December.
    91. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    92. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.

  39. Alina Barnett & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Bogdan DIMA & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Flavia BARNA, 2019. "Inflation Contagion Effects in the Baltic Countries: A Time-varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 72-87, March.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    3. Kelly Burns, 2016. "A Reconsideration of the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle: An Alternative Approach to Model Estimation and Forecast Evaluation," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 20(1), pages 41-83, March.
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "International stock return predictability: Is the role of U.S. time-varying?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 121-146, February.
    5. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    6. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    7. Yilanci, Veli & Kilci, Esra N., 2021. "The role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in predicting prices of precious metals: Evidence from a time-varying bootstrap causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    9. Rafael Ravnik, 2014. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes," Working Papers 40, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    10. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    11. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
    12. Sun, Yanpeng & Mirza, Nawazish & Qadeer, Abdul & Hsueh, Hsin-Pei, 2021. "Connectedness between oil and agricultural commodity prices during tranquil and volatile period. Is crude oil a victim indeed?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
    14. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    15. Mehmet Akif, Destek & Muhammad, Shahbaz & Ilyas, Okumus & Shawkat, Hammoudeh & Avik, Sinha, 2020. "The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in G-7 countries: evidence from time-varying parameters with a long history," MPRA Paper 100514, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2020.
    16. Bergmeir, Christoph & Costantini, Mauro & Benítez, José M., 2014. "On the usefulness of cross-validation for directional forecast evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 132-143.
    17. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2017. "Prévisions de l’inflation et de la croissance en zone CEMAC [Inflation and real growth forecasts in CEMAC zone]," MPRA Paper 116433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Time-varying causality between research output and economic growth in US," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(1), pages 203-216, July.

  40. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2025_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Melosi, Leonardo & Rogantini Picco, Anna & Morita, Hiroshi & Zanetti, Francesco, 2025. "The signaling effects of fiscal announcements," Working Paper Series 3110, European Central Bank.
    3. Stefan Schiman, 2021. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve: Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 108-127, April.
    4. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Hjelm, Linnéa, 2026. "The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!," Working Paper Series 3180, European Central Bank.

  41. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    3. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2025. "Quantitative easing, tightening, and the term premium channel in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3089-3125, December.
    4. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    5. Deng, Kaihua & Todd, Walker, 2016. "Is the US quantitative easing more effective than China's? A second thought," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-23.
    6. Demetrio Lacava & Luca Scaffidi Domianello, 2021. "The Incidence of Spillover Effects during the Unconventional Monetary Policies Era," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    8. Markus Heckel & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2022. "Unconventional Monetary Policy through Open Market Operations: A Principal Component Analysis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-28, Winter/Sp.
    9. Fructuoso Borrallo & Ignacio Hernando & Javier Vallés, 2016. "The effects of us unconventional monetary policies in Latin America," Working Papers 1606, Banco de España.
    10. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2013. "Is the UK triple-A?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9378, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: Worth a try?," Post-Print hal-03568216, HAL.
    12. Brian Fabo & Martina Jancokova & Elisabeth Kempf & Lubos Pastor, 2023. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    13. Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P Smith, 2014. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1406, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    15. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov & Manuela Pedio, 2014. "Understanding the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Corporate Bond Market in Good and Bad Times: A Markov Switching Model," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1623, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Rohan Churm & Mike Joyce & George Kapetanios & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    17. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    18. Giampiero M. Gallo & Demetrio Lacava & Edoardo Otranto, 2020. "On Classifying the Effects of Policy Announcements on Volatility," Papers 2011.14094, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    19. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    20. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    21. Skrypnik, D., 2014. "The Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing in the United States for Russian Economy. Macroeconometric Analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 74-101.
    22. Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2018. "Quantitative easing effects on commercial bank liability and government yields in UK: A threshold cointegration approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 353-371, April.
    23. Eleni Zafeiriou & Spyridon Galatsidas & Garyfallos Arabatzis & Stavros Tsiantikoudis & Athanasios Batzios, 2023. "Environmental Degradation by Energy–Economic Growth Interlinkages in EU Agriculture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, May.
    24. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13411, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    25. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2013. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: a model-based fiscal analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9665, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    26. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    27. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 225-236.
    28. Taeyoon Sung & Jong-Hee Kim, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity Circulation, and Inflation Divergence around the World," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 6-26, March.
    29. Akan, Taner, 2023. "Can renewable energy mitigate the impacts of inflation and policy interest on climate change?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 255-289.
    30. Florian Huber & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2016. "International Housing Markets, Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp216, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    31. Belke, Angar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 335-349.
    32. Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policies in an agent-based model with mark-to-market standards," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 73-107, April.
    33. Giannone, Domenico & Altavilla, Carlo & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements," Working Paper Series 1707, European Central Bank.
    34. Katie Farrant & Mika Inkinen & Magda Rutkowska & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2013. "What can company data tell us about financing and investment decisions?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 361-370.
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    174. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    175. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    176. Arisa Chantaraboontha, 2025. "Measuring the Spillovers of US Unconventional Surprises across Monetary Conditions with Local Projections," ISER Discussion Paper 1276, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    177. Florian Urbschat & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6709, CESifo.
    178. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 991-1021, September.
    179. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Quantitative Easing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Country Study," KAE Working Papers 2023-088, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    180. Cohen, Lior, 2023. "The effects of the BoJ's ETF purchases on equities and corporate investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    181. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    182. Michael Joyce & Matthew Tong & Robert Woods, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
    183. Phil Molyneux & Alessio Reghezza & John Thornton & Ru Xie, 2020. "Did Negative Interest Rates Improve Bank Lending?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 51-68, February.
    184. Tyler K. Jensen & Robert R. Johnson & Michael J. McNamara, 2019. "Funding conditions and insurance stock returns: Do insurance stocks really benefit from rising interest rate regimes?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 367-391, December.
    185. Cong Gu & Benfu Lv & Ying Liu & Geng Peng, 2021. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Cryptocurrency," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 27-34.
    186. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Program," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 79-94, February.
    187. Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Emanuel List, 2015. "Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik," IMK Report 107-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    188. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wang, Ziqing, 2023. "UK monetary and fiscal policy since the Great Recession- an evaluation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    189. Schüder, Stefan, 2014. "Expansive monetary policy in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 239-252.
    190. Tiago Araújo & Óscar Afonso & Pedro Cunha Neves & Elena Sochirca, 2025. "International spillovers of unconventional monetary policy: A meta-analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 24(2), pages 205-224, May.
    191. Taoufik Bouraoui, 2015. "The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(15), pages 1562-1573, March.
    192. Ahn, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2026. "Macroeconomic effects of the US quantitative easing during two zero lower bound periods," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    193. Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  42. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Emmanuel O. Akande & Jeremiah D. Dandaura & Elijah Akanni, 2024. "Monetary policy instruments and inflation in Nigeria: a revisit of FAVAR," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-36, February.
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Working Papers No 5/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 225-236.
    5. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    6. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    7. Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver & Taylor, Alan M., 2016. "Monetary versus macroprudential policies:causal impacts of interest rates andcredit controls in the era of the UKradcliffe report," Economic History Working Papers 67035, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    8. Hjortsø, Ida & Forbes, Kristin & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The Shocks Matter: Improving our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13037, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles," Working Papers No 4/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    11. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Evans, Jocelyn D. & Robertson, Mari L., 2018. "The effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 164-168.
    13. Colin Ellis, 2020. "Have Macron’s Recent Labour Reforms Been as Impactful as Past German Reforms?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 89-100, July.
    14. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
    15. Jan Prüser & Alexander Schlösser, 2020. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on European economies: evidence from a TVP-FAVAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2889-2910, June.
    16. Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Francesco Zanetti & Christoph Görtz & Wei Li & John Tsoukalas, 2020. "Vintage Article: The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks in the United Kingdom: an External Instruments Approach," Economics Series Working Papers 812, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Time Variation in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 12-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    19. Fasianos, Apostolos & Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 14656, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    20. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    21. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    22. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    23. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 26606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2017. "International Effects of Euro Area versus US Policy Uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach," ROME Working Papers 201703, ROME Network.
    26. Czudaj, Robert L., 2019. "Dynamics between trading volume, volatility and open interest in agricultural futures markets: A Bayesian time-varying coefficient approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 78-145.
    27. Katerina Petrova & George Kapetanios & Riccardo Masolo & Matthew Waldron, 2017. "A time varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 677, Bank of England.
    28. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank," Working Papers No 6/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    29. Anthoulla Phella, 2020. "Forecasting With Factor-Augmented Quantile Autoregressions: A Model Averaging Approach," Papers 2010.12263, arXiv.org.
    30. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2016. "Monetary policy transmission in an open economy:new data and evidence from the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86235, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1007, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen, 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: a new measure for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 493, Bank of England.
    33. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    34. Karin Klieber, 2023. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Papers 2309.04821, arXiv.org.
    35. Olga Borzykh, 2016. "Bank lending channel in Russia: A TVP-FAVAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 96-117.
    36. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    37. Anastasios Evgenidis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2015. "What are the International Channels Through Which a US Policy Shock is Transmitted to The World Economies? Evidence from a Time Varying FAVAR," Working Papers 190, Bank of Greece.
    38. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," NBER Working Papers 23651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Juan S. Holguín & Jorge M. Uribe, 2020. "The credit supply channel of monetary policy: evidence from a FAVAR model with sign restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2443-2472, November.
    40. Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2025. "Commodity correlation risk," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    41. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    42. Georgiana Pleșa, 2024. "Impact of Globalization on Macroeconomic Dynamics Using a Time-varying Bayesian VAR," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(4), pages 380-413.
    43. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    44. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    45. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    46. Taylor, Alan M. & Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver, 2016. "Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe R," CEPR Discussion Papers 11353, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    47. Klieber, Karin, 2024. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    48. Anastasios Evgenidis & Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1549-1579, May.
    49. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    50. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
    51. Victor Pontines, 2021. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: empirical evidence from Korea," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1311-1350, September.

  43. Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Millard & Tamarah Shakir, 2013. "Oil shocks and the UK economy: the changing nature of shocks and impact over time," Bank of England working papers 476, Bank of England.
    2. Hassan Tawakol A. Fadol, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of the Macroeconomic Indicators Shocks on KSA Non-oil Exports 1970-2019: (SVAR) Analysis and (NARDL) Assessment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 118-128.
    3. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.

  44. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8321, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
    5. Muhammad Khan, 2013. "Inflation and Sectoral Output Growth Variability in Bulgaria," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 687-704, December.
    6. Hjortsø, Ida & Forbes, Kristin & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The Shocks Matter: Improving our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13037, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk & Hillebrand, Eric & Urga, Giovanni, 2019. "Consistent estimation of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 535-562.
    8. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 721-763, December.
    10. Pappa, Evi & Molteni, Francesco, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 12541, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Moses K. Tule & Taiwo Ajilore & Augustine Ujunwa, 2019. "Monetary Policy Contagion in the West African Monetary Zone," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 375-398, November.
    12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 8341, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Working Papers 04/2009, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    15. Andrew Binning, 2013. "Underidentified SVAR models: A framework for combining short and long-run restrictions with sign-restrictions," Working Paper 2013/14, Norges Bank.
    16. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    17. Yoshiyuki Fukuda & Yuki Kimura & Nao Sudo & Hiroshi Ugai, 2013. "Cross-country Transmission Effect of the U.S. Monetary Shock under Global Integration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    18. Eickmeier Sandra, 2010. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
    19. Sinem Hacioglu & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2016. "Interpreting the latent dynamic factors by threshold FAVAR model," Bank of England working papers 622, Bank of England.
    20. Ziyan Zhao & Qingfeng Liu, 2024. "Time-Varying Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 2401, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    21. MARGARITA Ilinca Andrada & CAZACU Mihai, 2024. "Regional And Local Macroeconomic Policies From The Perspective Of The Development Of Emerging States," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 76(2), pages 22-28, June.
    22. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    23. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    24. Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Eric Hillebrand & Giovanni Urga, 2015. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying Loadings in High-Dimensional Factor Models," CREATES Research Papers 2015-61, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  45. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2011. "Estimating the Aggregate Consumption Euler Equation with State-Dependent Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 8233, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1237-1260, November.

  46. Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Evolving UK macroeconomic dynamics: a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 386, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    3. Sofia Velasco, 2025. "Let the Tree Decide: FABART A Non-Parametric Factor Model," Papers 2506.11551, arXiv.org.
    4. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Velasco, Sofia, 2024. "Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian quantile factor augmented VAR," Working Paper Series 2983, European Central Bank.
    7. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    9. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    10. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Tavakolian, Hossein & Babaee, Majid & Shakeri, Abbas, 2018. "How Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Indicators Affect Inflation in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 267-289, July.

  47. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 397, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Bilgili, Faik, 2012. "Linear and nonlinear TAR panel unit root analyses for solid biomass energy supply of European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6775-6781.
    2. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    3. Garreth Rule, 2012. "Collateral management in central bank policy operations," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 31, April.
    4. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
    5. Garreth Rule, 2011. "Issuing central bank securities," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 30, April.
    6. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    8. Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.

  48. Alina Barnett & Jan J J Groen & Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Eliana Gonz�lez & Munir Jalil & Jose Vicente Romero Chamorro, 2010. "Inflaci�n y expectativas de inflaci�n en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7307, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Rashmi Harimohan, 2012. "How has the risk to inflation from inflation expectations evolved?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 114-123.
    3. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    4. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    7. Eliana González & Munir Jalil & José Vicente Romero, 2010. "Inflación y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 618, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Michail, Nektarios A. & Louca, Kyriaki G., 2025. "Inflation expectations and house prices in the euro area," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 383-391.
    10. Sílvia Domit & Chris Jackson & Matt Roberts-Sklar, 2015. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to inflation?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(55), pages 165-180.
    11. Becky Maule & Alice Pugh, 2012. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to the economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(1), pages 110-121.

  49. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Karagedikli, Özer & Ryan, Michael & Steenkamp, Daan & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2016. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks on the New Zealand economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 945-959.
    3. Akbar, Muhammad & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2021. "Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 574-600.
    4. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.
    6. Ozer Karagedikli & Michael Ryan & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What Happens When the Kiwi Flies? The Sectoral Effects of the Exchange Rate Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    8. Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku & Ilir Vika, 2023. "Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1297-1326, April.
    9. Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.
    10. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    11. Alina Barnett & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
    12. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    13. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Rozina Shaheen, 2019. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Labor Supply under a Time-Varying Structural VAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, June.
    15. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.

  50. Christiane Baumeister & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from a time-varying factor-augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 401, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8321, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    3. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    4. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    5. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    6. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.
    8. Garreth Rule, 2012. "Collateral management in central bank policy operations," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 31, April.
    9. Alina Barnett & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
    10. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Sinem Hacioglu & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2016. "Interpreting the latent dynamic factors by threshold FAVAR model," Bank of England working papers 622, Bank of England.
    12. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2013. "The Growth and Stabilization Properties of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia," IMF Working Papers 2013/149, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 896, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Garreth Rule, 2011. "Issuing central bank securities," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 30, April.
    15. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipińska, 2014. "Practical Tools For Policy Analysis In Dsge Models With Missing Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1145-1163, November.
    16. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    18. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.
    19. Rafiq Sohrab, 2012. "Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Japan Effective?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, August.
    20. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    21. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipinska, 2012. "Practical tools for policy analysis in DSGE models with missing channels," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  51. Özer Karagedikli & Haroon Mumtaz & Misa Tanaka, 2010. "All together now: do international factors explain relative price comovements?," Bank of England working papers 381, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. John McDermott, 2010. "Discussion of What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Michael Callaghan & Enzo Cassino & Tugrul Vehbi & Benjamin Wong, 2019. "Opening the toolbox: how does the Reserve Bank analyse the world?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-14, April.
    3. Saban Nazlioglu & Sinem Pinar Gurel & Sevcan Gunes & Tugba Akin & Cagin Karul & Muhsin Kar, 2025. "Inflation co-movement: new insights from quantile factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 431-464, July.
    4. De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael & Franco Bedoya,Sebastian, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9090, The World Bank.
    5. Parker, Miles, 2017. "Global inflation: the role of food, housing and energy prices," Working Paper Series 2024, European Central Bank.
    6. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ha, Jongrim & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2019. "Global Inflation Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 13600, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2025. "International cost-push inflation and monetary policy in Brazil," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 486-500.

  52. Francesco Bianchi & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 363, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    3. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    4. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    6. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    7. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    8. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    9. Ziyan Zhao & Qingfeng Liu, 2024. "Time-Varying Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 2401, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    10. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.
    11. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.
    12. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    13. Dorota Toczydlowska & Gareth W. Peters, 2018. "Financial Big Data Solutions for State Space Panel Regression in Interest Rate Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-45, July.

  53. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "One TV, One Price?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7504, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Nemet, Gregory F. & O’Shaughnessy, Eric & Wiser, Ryan & Darghouth, Naïm & Barbose, Galen & Gillingham, Ken & Rai, Varun, 2017. "Characteristics of low-priced solar PV systems in the U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 501-513.
    2. Talavera, Oleksandr & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2015. "Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integration," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112885, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Gobillon, Laurent & Wolff, François-Charles & Guillotreau, Patrice, 2013. "Evaluating the law of one price using micro panel data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9586, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2016. "Understanding Post‐Euro Law‐of‐One‐Price Deviations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1073-1111, September.
    5. Julia Cage & Dorothée Rouzet, 2015. "Improving “National Brands”: Reputation for Quality and Export Promotion Strategies," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01167909, HAL.
    6. Miguel González-Maestre & Francisco Martínez-Sánchez, 2015. "Quality choice and advertising regulation in broadcasting markets," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 107-126, March.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2012. "The Penn Effect within a Country - Evidence from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 3955, CESifo.
    8. Rui Fan & Oleksandr Talavera & Vu Tran, 2022. "Information flows and the law of one price," Discussion Papers 22-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    9. Martin Falk, 2011. "International Price Differences in Ski Lift Tickets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 303-336, September.
    10. Marianne Baxter & Anthony Landry, . "IKEA: product, pricing, and pass-through," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 40-59.
    12. Dmitry Kulikov, 2015. "Law of One Price in the euro area: an empirical investigation using Nielsen disaggregated price data," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jan 2015.
    13. Cerasa, Andrea & Buscaglia, Daniela, 2019. "A hedonic model of import steel prices: Is the EU market integrated?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-249.
    14. Anthony Landry & Marianne Baxter, 2013. "IKEA: Product, Pricing, and Pass-Through," 2013 Meeting Papers 1363, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Zhang, Qi, 2017. "The Balassa–Samuelson relationship: Services, manufacturing and product quality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 55-82.
    16. Herz, Benedikt & Mejer, Malwina, 2021. "The effect of design protection on price and price dispersion: Evidence from automotive spare parts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Fischer, Christoph, 2012. "Price convergence in the EMU? Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 757-776.
    18. Rühl, Christian, 2016. "Size and welfare costs of price differences across European countries," CFS Working Paper Series 535, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    19. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2020. "How different are Monetary Unions to national economies according to prices?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2020, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    20. Rühl, Christian, 2016. "Size and welfare costs of price differences across European countries," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145701, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Beck, Guenter W. & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2020. "Price gaps at the border: Evidence from multi-country household scanner data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    22. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2014. "Law-of-One-Price Deviations Before and After the Euro: The case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(2), pages 61-85, December.
    23. Herz, Benedikt & Mejer, Malwina, 2020. "The effect of design protection on price and price dispersion: Evidence from automotive spare parts," MPRA Paper 109645, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2021.
    24. Greiner, Tanja & Sahm, Marco, 2018. "How effective are advertising bans? On the demand for quality in two-sided media markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-60.
    25. Romero, Jaime & Cruz-Roche, Ignacio & Charron, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "The myth of price convergence under economic integration: A proposed explanation for the difference in food prices across European countries," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 267-276.
    26. Beck, Günter W. & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2016. "Prices and consumer purchasing preferences at the border: Evidence from a multi-country household scanner data set," CFS Working Paper Series 536, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    27. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2020. "Understanding post-Crisis price deviations in Europe: Disintegration or mere adjustment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1797-1814, April.

  54. Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk & Colin Ellis, 2009. "What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices?," Bank of England working papers 364, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Sigal Ribon, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Inflation: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach using disaggregated data," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2011.12, Bank of Israel.
    2. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Zhu, Tingting & Rafiq, M.S., 2013. "Are Prices Sticky in Large Developing Economies? An Empirical Comparison of China and India," MPRA Paper 60985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "How do Individual UK Producer Prices Behave?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 16-34, February.
    4. Huw Dixon & Jeremy Franklin & Stephen Millard, 2023. "Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 805-829, August.
    5. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2009. "Inflation persistence," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Imran Hussain Shah & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Seeking price and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area: The role of house prices and stock prices," IREA Working Papers 201710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    7. Kaufmann, Daniel & Lein, Sarah M., 2013. "Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 384-394.
    8. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper, 2011. "Parameter Identification in a Estimated New Keynesian Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 251, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Colin Ellis, 2009. "Do supermarket prices change from week to week?," Bank of England working papers 378, Bank of England.
    10. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "Examining The Behaviour Of Individual UK Consumer Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 35-55, February.

  55. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2009. "International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective," Discussion Papers 28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    2. Dai, Yixin & Yu, Cong & Xu, Xiangyun & Zhou, Jindie & Teng, Fengfan, 2024. "The macro driving factors of co-movement of RMB with other currencies in FX markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    3. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    4. Berger, Tino & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "Global vs. group-specific business cycles: The importance of defining the groups," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 334, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    6. Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2011. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2011/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Khandokar Istiak & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Humaira Husain & Kazi Sohag, 2021. "The Spillover of Inflation among the G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies," Working Papers No 6/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Imbs, Jean & Saleheen, Jumana, 2019. "Finance and synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 74-87.
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Oluwaseun A. Adesina & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2025. "Model-free and model-based connectedness in highly, medium and lowly correlated financial returns: analyses of OECD inflations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1807-1832, April.
    12. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2013. "Domestic Versus International Determinants of European Business Cycles: A GVAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2013-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
    14. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 120-146, June.
    15. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," IMF Working Papers 2016/054, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," NBER Working Papers 23246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jingjing Lyu & Bernd Süssmuth, 2024. "Global Linkages across Sectors and Frequency Bands: A Band Spectral Panel Regression Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10970, CESifo.
    18. Gantungalag Altansukh & Ralf Becker & George Bratsiotis & Denise R. Osborn, 2018. "Structural Breaks in International Inflation Linkages for OECD Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 240, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    19. Rodriguez, Diego & Gonzalez, Andres & Fernandez, Andres, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7382, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    21. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2016. "Is there really a Global Business Cycle? A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-088/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Salzmann, Leonard, 2016. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145633, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    24. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    25. Saban Nazlioglu & Sinem Pinar Gurel & Sevcan Gunes & Tugba Akin & Cagin Karul & Muhsin Kar, 2025. "Inflation co-movement: new insights from quantile factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 431-464, July.
    26. Servén, Luis & Abate, Girum Dagnachew, 2020. "Adding space to the international business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    27. Uluc Aysun & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2017. "The common sources of business cycles in Trans-Pacific countries and the U.S.? A comparison with NAFTA," Working Papers 2017-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    28. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    29. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George J. & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the Globalisation of Inflation?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74, pages 1-27.
    30. Alberto Americo & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Johannes Damp & Sjur Nilsen & Daniel Rees & Rafael Schmidt & Christian Schmieder, 2025. "Inflation cycles: evidence from international data," BIS Working Papers 1264, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
    32. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," Working Papers No 6/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    33. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2020. "The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 215-235.
    34. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
    35. Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2022. "Encompassing measures of international consumption risk sharing and their link with trade and financial globalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 433-449, March.
    36. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Olaolu Olayeni, 2015. "Analyzing Time–Frequency Based Co-movement in Inflation: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 91-109, January.
    37. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    38. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?," Working Papers No 8/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    39. Kyriakos Drivas & Claire Economidou & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2022. "Technological Leaders, Laggards and Spillovers: A Network GVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-269, April.
    40. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2021. "Testing for international business cycles: A multilevel factor model with stochastic factor selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    41. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pacce, Matías, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Paper Series 2484, European Central Bank.
    42. Luis M. Viceira & Zixuan (Kevin) Wang, 2018. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors," NBER Working Papers 24646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Business Cycle Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 7468, CESifo.
    44. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Drivers of Turkish inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 315-323.
    45. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2015. "Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 65-136, September.
    46. Daniel O. Beltran & Julio L. Ortiz, 2025. "Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies: A Regional Perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 1421, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Drago Bergholt & Tommy Sveen, 2014. "Sectoral Interdependence and Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Open Economies," Working Papers No 2/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    48. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia, 2017. "What has caused global business cycle decoupling: Smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 300, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    49. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    50. Hanna Armelius & Christoph Bertsch & Isaiah Hull & Xin Zhang, 2019. "Spread the Word: International Spillovers from Central Bank Communication," BIS Working Papers 824, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Gyun Cheol Gu, 2015. "Why Have U.S. Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 661-685, November.
    52. Kai Carstensen & Leonard Salzmann, 2016. "The G7 Business Cycle in a Globalized World," CESifo Working Paper Series 5980, CESifo.
    53. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    54. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    55. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2019. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2019/202, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Grzegorz Wesołowski & Oleg Gurshev, 2025. "US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle," Working Papers 2025-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    57. Dilip M. Nachane & Amlendu Dubey, 2021. "The Spectral Envelope: An Application to the Decoupling Problem in Economics," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 287-308, December.
    58. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    59. Antoine Camous & Eric Monnet & Damien Puy, 2016. "World Cycles Revisited: Diverging Trends in Prices and Quantities," Working papers 592, Banque de France.
    60. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    61. Dilip Nachane & Amlendu Dubey, 2018. "India in the globalized economy : Growth spillovers & business cycle synchronization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 89-115, January.
    62. Hugo Gerard, 2012. "Co-movement in Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    63. António Rua & Francisco Dias, 2020. "A non-hierarchical dynamic factor model for three-way data," Working Papers w202007, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    64. Kang, Sang Hoon & Lahmiri, Salim & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Inflation cycle synchronization in ASEAN countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    65. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    66. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjornland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," CAMA Working Papers 2013-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    67. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    68. Aysun, Uluc, 2024. "Identifying the external and internal drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    69. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.
    70. Aysun, Uluc, 2022. "A structural approach to measuring the degree of economic integration: Evidence from G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    71. Eugen Scarlat, 2016. "Connectivity - Based Clustering of GDP Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 23-38, March.
    72. Lange, Ronald H., 2015. "International long-term yields and monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 292-310.
    73. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    74. Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ & Roman MARŠÁLEK, 2012. "Time and frequency domain in the business cycle structure," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(7), pages 332-346.
    75. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, 2009. "Globally Correlated Nominal Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    77. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    78. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
    79. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "Intersectoral network‐based channel of aggregate TFP shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3897-3910, October.
    80. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    81. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.
    82. Sandra Eickmeier & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2013. "Understanding Global Liquidity," BIS Working Papers 402, Bank for International Settlements.
    83. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers No 11/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    84. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    85. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    86. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2024. "Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-149, January.

  56. Jan J J Groen & Haroon Mumtaz, 2008. "Investigating the structural stability of the Phillips curve relationship," Bank of England working papers 350, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. William, Barnett & Guo, Chen, 2015. "Bifurcation of macroeconometric models and robustness of dynamical inferences," MPRA Paper 63772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Barrera-Chaupis, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012 [The relationship between inflation's and growth's discrete cycles: Peru 1993-2012]," MPRA Paper 60959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    4. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    5. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    6. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.
    7. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    8. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    10. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alina Barnett & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
    12. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    13. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    15. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Working Paper 2009/16, Norges Bank.
    16. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2014. "Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 58737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. David Gbaguidi, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119.
    18. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    19. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  57. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    2. Adrian Chiu & Tomasz Wieladek, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    3. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
    4. Guillermo Felices & Tomasz Wieladek, 2011. "Are EME indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Bank of England working papers 410, Bank of England.
    5. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    6. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    7. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2011. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: new evidence from G10 countries," MPRA Paper 32994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mahir Binici & Samuele Centorrino & Serhan Cevik & Gyowon Gwon, 2024. "Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 237-290, April.
    10. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    11. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
    12. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2016. "The Identification Of Inflation Rate Determinants In The Usa Using The Stochastic Search Variable Selection," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 8(1), pages 171-181, March.
    14. Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "The global component of inflation volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?," Working Papers No 8/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kaneez, Fatima & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    18. Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
    19. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. F. Ferroni & B. Klaus, 2014. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Working papers 522, Banque de France.
    21. Özer Karagedikli & Haroon Mumtaz & Misa Tanaka, 2010. "All together now: Do international factors explain relative price co-movements?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
    23. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    24. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.
    25. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    26. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.

  58. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    2. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    3. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    4. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    5. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    6. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
    7. Petrova, Katerina, 2019. "A quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach to time varying parameter VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 286-306.
    8. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015. "A Bayesian Local Likelihood Method for Modelling Parameter Time Variation in DSGE Models," Working Papers 770, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Nikola Mirkov, 2014. "International financial transmission of the Fed's monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 7-49, September.
    10. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
    11. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    12. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    13. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the role of economic uncertainty in oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a new time-varying oil market model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    15. Cross, Jamie & Kam, Timothy & Poon, Aubrey, 2025. "Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    17. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2022. "Is gold a safe haven for exchange rate risks? An empirical study of major currency countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Katerina Petrova & George Kapetanios & Riccardo Masolo & Matthew Waldron, 2017. "A time varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 677, Bank of England.
    19. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    20. Jamie L. Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Working Papers No 11/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    21. Marwa Elsherif, 2024. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-69, May.
    22. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    23. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    24. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    25. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    26. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    27. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    28. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    29. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    30. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Tony Yates, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    31. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    32. Wohlfarth, Paul & Chen, Xiaohong, 2024. "Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of CIP violations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    33. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    34. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    35. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    36. Laura Liu & Christian Matthes & Katerina Petrova, 2018. "Monetary Policy across Space and Time," Working Paper 18-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    37. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    38. Lyu, Yongjian & Tuo, Siwei & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility：New evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    39. Lyu, Yongjian & Wei, Yu & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Good volatility, bad volatility and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the crude oil futures market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    40. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large-scale mixture innovation models," Working Papers in Economics 2018-5, University of Salzburg.
    41. Matos, Paulo & Soares, Aline, 2025. "On the time-varying behavior of household credit in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

  59. Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 746, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    5. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-03498781, HAL.
    6. Surico, Paolo & Benati, Luca, 2007. "Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability," Working Paper Series 824, European Central Bank.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8321, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2012. "Monetary policy in a small open economy with fixed exchange rate: The case of Macedonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 594-608.
    9. Corina SAMAN, 2016. "The Impact of the US and Euro Area Financial Systemic Stress to the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-183, December.
    10. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Gert Peersman & Christiane Baumeister, 2009. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," 2009 Meeting Papers 171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2013. "Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-141.
    15. Prüser, Jan, 2021. "The horseshoe prior for time-varying parameter VARs and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.
    17. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Qureshi, Irfan, 2018. "Money Aggregates and Determinacy : A Reinterpretation of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1156, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    21. Jinshun Wu & Luyao Wu, 2024. "Bayesian Local Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying DSGE Models: Allowing for Indeterminacy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2437-2476, October.
    22. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2014. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," MPRA Paper 57223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
    24. Anindya Banerjee & Sheheryar Malik, 2012. "The changing role of expectations in US monetary policy: A new look using the Livingston Survey," Working papers 376, Banque de France.
    25. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007.
    26. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    27. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei NetŠunajev, 2014. "Disentangling Demand And Supply Shocks In The Crude Oil Market: How To Check Sign Restrictions In Structural Vars," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 479-496, April.
    28. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    29. Roland Straub & Gert Peersman & Boris Hofmann, 2011. "Time Variation in U.S. Wage Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 331, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
    31. Hahn, Elke & Mestre, Ricardo, 2011. "The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s," Working Paper Series 1356, European Central Bank.
    32. Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.
    33. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area," Working Paper Research 142, National Bank of Belgium.
    34. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2014. "Evolving UK and US macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of a model of deterministic structural change," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 305-345, August.
    35. Michael Ellington, 2022. "The Empirical Relevance of the Shadow Rate and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1605-1635, September.
    36. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 26-41.
    37. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    38. Angelia L. Grant, 2017. "The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 224-232, January.
    39. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2014. "Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1591-1626, December.
    40. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    41. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    42. Alexie Alupoaiei & Ana-Maria Sandica, 2013. "Assessing Structural Convergence between Romanian Economy and Euro Area: A Bayesian Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 372-383, July.
    43. Orkida (Findiku) Ilollari & Gentiana Gjino, 2013. "Financial crisis. Implementation of macro- and micro-prudential regulation," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 83-91, June.
    44. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Tony Yates, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    45. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    46. Landolfo, Luigi, 2007. "Modeling the impact of external factors on the euro area's HICP and real economy: a focus on pass-through and the trade balance," Working Paper Series 789, European Central Bank.
    47. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    48. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "The Effect of Labor and Financial Frictions on Aggregate Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 690, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    49. Georgiana Pleșa, 2024. "Impact of Globalization on Macroeconomic Dynamics Using a Time-varying Bayesian VAR," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(4), pages 380-413.
    50. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2018. "Time-Frequency Response Analysis of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers IES 2018/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2018.
    51. Benati, Luca, 2011. "Would the Bundesbank have prevented the Great Inflation in the United States?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1106-1125, July.
    52. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    53. Benati, Luca, 2007. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Working Paper Series 769, European Central Bank.
    54. Michael Ellington & Chris Florackis & Costas Milas, 2016. "Liquidity Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-varying Parameter VAR," Working Paper series 16-28, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    55. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.

  60. Andrew Benito & Haroon Mumtaz, 2006. "Consumption excess sensitivity, liquidity constraints and the collateral role of housing," Bank of England working papers 306, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. M.A. Akudugu, 2011. "Rural banks' financial capital and livelihoods development of women farmers in Ghana," Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(4), pages 248-264, October.
    2. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    3. Declan French & Donal McKillop & Tripti Sharma, 2017. "Analysis of Housing Equity Withdrawal by its Forms," CHaRMS Working Papers 17-04, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    4. Umar Faruqui & Samah Torchani, 2012. "How Important Are Liquidity Constraints for Canadian Households? Evidence from Micro-Data," Discussion Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ida Hjortsoe & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2016. "Monetary policy and the current account; theory and evidence," Discussion Papers 45, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    6. Chamil W. Senarathne & Wei Jianguo, 2018. "The Stochastic Implications of Permanent Income Hypothesis for US Speculative Traders: Implications for Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 20(2), pages 5-32, December.
    7. James Cloyne & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Household debt and the dynamic effects of income tax changes," Bank of England working papers 491, Bank of England.
    8. Besley, Tim & Surico, Paolo & Meads, Neil, 2008. "Household External Finance and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 6934, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Valuing homeownership," Working Papers CEB 09-006.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Ke Chen & Miss Mali Chivakul, 2008. "What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 2008/202, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Hsuan-Hua Huang & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2023. "Liquidity Constraints, Cash Windfalls, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners," Papers 2303.17029, arXiv.org.
    12. Akudugu, M. A., 2012. "Estimation of the Determinants of Credit Demand by Farmers and Supply by Rural Banks in Ghana’s Upper East Region," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 2(02), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Jingjing Yan, 2018. "The Heterogenous Impact of Fluctuation of Housing Prices upon Consumption of Urban Households in China," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-8.
    14. Stephen Burgess & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Charlotta Groth & Richard Harrison & Francesca Monti & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Matt Waldron, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    15. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2014. "Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-28.
    16. Tatiana Kirsanova & Jack Rogers, 2013. "Fixed versus Variable Rate Debt Contracts and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 1306, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    17. Kangogo, Daniel & Lagat, Job & Ithinji, Gicuru, 2013. "The Influence of Social Capital Dimensions on Household Participation in Micro-Credit Groups and Loan Repayment Performance in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya," MPRA Paper 48624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. He, Dong & Liao, Wei & Wu, Tommy, 2015. "Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-28.
    19. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
    20. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2014. "Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Irish Households, 1994 to 2005," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 511-535.
    21. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2007. "The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 287, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    22. Andrew Benito, 2007. "Housing equity as a buffer: evidence from UK households," Bank of England working papers 324, Bank of England.
    23. Hjortsoe, Ida & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2018. "How does financial liberalisation affect the influence of monetary policy on the current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 93-123.
    24. Dalina Amonhaemanon, 2015. "The Impact of Stock Price and Real Estate Price Shocks on Consumption: The Thai Experience," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 137-148, January.

  61. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Mykhaylova Olena & Staveley-O’Carroll James, 2014. "International transmission of productivity shocks with nonzero net foreign debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 579-624, January.
    2. Matthieu Bussière & Guillaume Gaulier & Walter Steingress, 2017. "Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities," Staff Working Papers 17-41, Bank of Canada.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter & Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    6. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Tunisia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/319, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Forecasting inflation under uncertainty: The forgotten dog and the frisbee," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Accounting for changes in the Eurozone trade structure," Working Papers hal-04141874, HAL.
    10. Guillaume Gaulier & Amina Lahrèche‐Révil & Isabelle Méjean, 2008. "Exchange‐rate pass‐through at the product level," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 425-449, May.
    11. Wanyu Chung, 2014. "Imported Inputs and Invoicing Currency Choice: Theory and Evidence from UK Transaction Data," Discussion Papers 2014-11, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    12. Channary Khun & Sokchea Lim & Hem Basnet, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Japanese Import Prices: Evidence at Both Bilateral and Product Levels," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(2), pages 115-132.
    13. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    14. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Exchange Rate Targeting in the Presence of Foreign Debt Obligations," Working Papers 1604, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    15. Jian Wang, 2007. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Working Papers 0701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    17. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.
    18. Christian Pinshi & Emmanuel Sungani, 2018. "The Relevance Of Pass-Through Effect: Should We Revisit Monetary Policy Regime?," Post-Print hal-02566800, HAL.
    19. Andr�s Gonz�lez & Hern�n Rinc�m & Norberto Rodr�guez, 2008. "La transmisi�n de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflaci�n," Borradores de Economia 5089, Banco de la Republica.
    20. Yamin Ahmad & Olena Mykhaylova, 2015. "Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 1509, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    21. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Berner, Eike, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through: New evidence from German micro data," Economics Working Papers 2011-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    23. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 397, Bank of England.
    24. Doo Bong, HAN & Ji-Yong, LEE, 2009. "Spikes and Pass-Through of Global Grain Prices on the Korean Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Rural Economics, Agricultural Economics Society of Japan, vol. 81(2), pages 1-9, September.
    25. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2015. "The shocks matter: improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Discussion Papers 43, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    26. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    27. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
    28. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    29. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    30. Jovic, Srdjan & Smigic Miladinovic, Jasmina & Micic, Radmila & Markovic, Sanja & Rakic, Goran, 2019. "Analysing of exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) by adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 333-338.
    31. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective," Ruhr Economic Papers 427, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    32. Roberto Álvarez & Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 465, Central Bank of Chile.
    33. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.
    34. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    35. M. Nusrate Aziz & Nick Horsewood & Somnath Sen, 2014. "The First and Second Stage Pass-through of Exchange Rates: A Developing Country Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 595-609, August.

  62. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2005. "'Aggregation Bias' DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5237, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. C. Thubin & Thomas Ferrière & Eric Monnet & Magali Marx & Vichett Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    2. Berka, Martin, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristics of goods," MPRA Paper 8606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
    3. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    4. M. Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 875-894.
    5. Tm Mokoena, 2007. "Taking The Puzzle Out Of The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: An Application In Respect Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(1), pages 22-34, March.
    6. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2008. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Staff Reports 351, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Mayoral, Laura & Dolores Gadea, María, 2011. "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 290-304.
    8. Ariel Burstein & Gita Gopinath, 2013. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alexis Antoniades, 2012. "Local Versus Producer Currency Pricing: Evidence From Disaggregated Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1229-1241, November.
    11. Giorgio Fazio & Peter McAdam & Ronald MacDonald, 2007. "Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 389-404, September.
    12. Christian J. Murray & Hatice Ozer-Balli & David H. Papell, 2006. "PPP Persistence within Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Panels," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 388-398, Izmir University of Economics.
    13. Joseph Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 339-357, June.

  63. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3715, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Mi Dai & Jianwei Xu, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China: 2000–2009," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 100-120, September.
    2. Vahagn Galstyan, 2007. "How Persistent are International Capital Flows?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp232, IIIS.
    3. Fan, Rui & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tran, Vu, 2023. "Information flows and the law of one price," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Kolev, Galina, 2012. "Quo vadis Eurozone? A reappraisal of the real exchange rate criterion," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66061, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Fullerton Jr., Thomas M. & Fierro, Karen P. & Villalobos, Emmanuel, 2009. "Cross-border restaurant price and exchange rate interactions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 281-288, December.
    6. Kenneth W. Clements & H. Y. Izan & Yihui Lan, 2009. "A Stochastic Measure of International Competitiveness," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(1‐2), pages 51-81, March.
    7. Talavera, Oleksandr & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2015. "Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integration," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112885, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Aggregation Bias in Trade Elasticities: The Case of Macedonia," FIW Working Paper series 106, FIW.
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Articles

  1. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Fasani, Stefano & Grazzini, Jakob & Rossi, Lorenza, 2023. "Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 48-63.

  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "What Do Vars Tell Us About The Impact Of A Credit Supply Shock?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 625-646, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "The Changing Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the U.S," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 239-252, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    4. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2019. "Bayesian Analysis of Coefficient Instability in Dynamic Regressions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-32, June.
    5. Haque, Qazi & Magnusson, Leandro M., 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Davide Brignone & Luca Gambetti & Martino Ricci, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    7. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    8. Ahmed Kamara & Niraj P. Koirala, 2023. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    10. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Bowen Fu & Mengheng Li & Qazi Haque, 2025. "Exchange Rates, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Time‐Varying Fama Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 310-324, April.
    12. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Investment Under Uncertainty in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1193-1217, October.
    13. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2021. "Modeling and assessing systematic risk in stock markets in major oil exporting countries," Economic Consultant, Scientific and Educational Initiative LLC, vol. 35(3), pages 18-29.
    14. Yeonggyu Yun & Hye-Young Jung, 2020. "Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Household Consumption and Working Hours: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "The confidence channel of U.S. financial uncertainty: Evidence from industry-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
    19. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    20. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    21. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    22. Usman, Ojonugwa & Ozkan, Oktay & Koy, Ayben & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2024. "Energy-related uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S: A multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 235-247.
    23. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    24. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    25. Jan Prüser & Alexander Schlösser, 2020. "On the Time‐Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the US Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(5), pages 1217-1237, October.
    26. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    27. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    28. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    29. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2023. "Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    30. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    31. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H. & Sun, Chuanwang, 2024. "Forecasting oil prices: Can large BVARs help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    32. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    33. Ellington, Michael, 2022. "Fat tails, serial dependence, and implied volatility index connections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 768-779.
    34. Amritkant MISHRA, 2024. "Do Economic Policy Uncertainty Have Ramifications On Inflation And Stock Market Performance? Evidence From Global Framework," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 19(3), pages 172-190, December.
    35. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    36. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    37. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    38. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    39. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    40. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2024. "Macro‐financial linkages in the high‐frequency domain: Economic fundamentals and the Covid‐induced uncertainty channel in US and UK financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1581-1608, April.
    41. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    42. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    43. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks," Discussion Papers 14/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    45. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel, 2020. "Increasing Business Uncertainty and Credit Conditions in Times of Low and High Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8791, CESifo.
    46. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    47. Sangyup Choi & Jeeyeon Phi, 2022. "Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality," Working papers 2022rwp-196, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    48. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    49. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    50. Llosa, Luis Gonzalo & Pérez-Forero, Fernando J. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2025. "Uncertainty shocks and financial conditions in Latin-American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    51. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    52. Andriantomanga, Zo & Kishor, N. Kundan & Kumar, Labesh, 2025. "Interest Rate Misalignments and Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from U.S. States," MPRA Paper 124748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    54. Tim Kovalenko, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size," Working Papers 212, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    55. Lyu, Yongjian & Tuo, Siwei & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility：New evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    56. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    57. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    58. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    59. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    60. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    61. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
    62. Pintér, Gábor, 2023. "Inflation and uncertainty in New Keynesian models: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

  5. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.

    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Persistence of state-level uncertainty of the United States: The role of climate risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Economic Conditions across US States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202410, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Mamadou Bah & Nelson Abila, 2024. "Institutional determinants of insurance penetration in Africa," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 138-179, January.
    7. Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    8. Shen, Yifan & He, Jia & Shi, Xunpeng & Zeng, Ting, 2025. "Uncertainty, macroeconomic activity and commodity price: A global analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Huang, Zhuo & Tong, Chen & Qiu, Han & Shen, Yan, 2018. "The spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the U.S. and China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 123-127.
    10. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Drygalla, Andrej & Gebauer, Stefan & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Lindner, Axel & Michelsen, Claus & Rieth, Malte & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Kurzfristige ökonomische Effekte eines "Brexit" auf die deutsche Wirtschaft: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie," IWH Online 3/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2022. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States," Working Papers 202251, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    13. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Binh Quang, 2025. "Do natural threats matter for natural resources rents? Global evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Shen, Yifan & Shi, Xunpeng & Zeng, Ting, 2017. "Global Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Activity and Commodity Price," MPRA Paper 90089, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Nov 2018.
    15. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wadström, Christoffer & Sharmi, Rubaiya Zaman, 2022. "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Wang, Xinya & Xu, Xin & Rong, Xueyun & Xuan, Siyuan, 2024. "Identification of the contagion effect in China's financial market uncertainties: A multiscale and dynamic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1340-1362.
    18. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    19. Saltzman, Bennett & Yung, Julieta, 2018. "A machine learning approach to identifying different types of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-62.
    20. Linyan Dai & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Impact of Uncertainty on State-Level Housing Markets of the United States: The Role of Social Cohesion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-9, March.
    21. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    22. Soojin Jo & Justin J. Lee, 2019. "Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1904, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    23. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    24. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    26. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    27. Hankins, William B. & Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2022. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on state-level employment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    28. Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi-Keung (Marco) & Sheng, Xin, 2020. "Graph theory-based network analysis of regional uncertainties of the US Economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    29. Wei‐Fong Pan & James Reade & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Measuring US regional economic uncertainty," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1149-1178, September.
    30. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Forecasting Charge-Off Rates with a Panel Tobit Model: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 202092, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    31. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2025. "The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    32. Oguzhan Cepni & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting National Recessions of the United States with State-Level Climate Risks: Evidence from Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 202252, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    33. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    34. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Udomsak Wongchoti & Su Dinh Thanh, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for insurance development? Evidence from 16 OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(4), pages 614-648, October.
    35. Tangyong Liu & Xu Gong & Lizhi Tang, 2022. "The uncertainty spillovers of China's economic policy: Evidence from time and frequency domains," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4541-4555, October.
    36. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Uncertainty and forecastability of regional output growth in the UK: Evidence from machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1049-1064, September.
    37. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Do U.S. economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil-price returns? A quantile machine-learning approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.

  6. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on inequality in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 410-423.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    3. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Economic Growth in the Presence of Fiscal Consolidation in South Africa from 1994 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    5. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majon, 2024. "Approximate Factor Models with a Common Multiplicative Factor for Stochastic Volatility," GRIPS Discussion Papers 24-02, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    6. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2022. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 859-884, June.
    8. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez Fernández, Nerea, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in Spain: SVAR approach with sign restrictions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    11. Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK," MPRA Paper 90448, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  11. Faccini, Renato & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2016. "International fiscal spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 31-45.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0220, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2018. "Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2018/103, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    4. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    5. Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James & Young, Eric R., 2023. "Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2019. "The international transmission of US tax shocks: a proxy-SVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1223, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Vanessa Kunzmann, 2023. "Estimating Regime Dependent Fiscal Spillover Effects in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 227, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    8. Kennedy, Austin, 2025. "Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Michael B. Devereux, 2018. "International Fiscal Spillovers: A Review Essay," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 29-50.
    11. Christofzik, Désirée I. & Elstner, Steffen, 2018. "International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 08/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    12. Austin Kennedy, 2025. "Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels," Papers 2508.06662, arXiv.org.
    13. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo & Valenzuela, Gabriel, 2025. "The valuation of economic recovery: The case for investment-led fiscal spending policies in open economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Wen Zhang, 2024. "The evolving international effects of China's government spending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1851-1869, May.
    15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Fabrice Dabiré & Hashmat Khan & Patrick Richard & Jean-François Rouillard, 2021. "Characterizing G-multipliers in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 21-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke, revised Mar 2023.
    17. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2025. "Adaptive Importance Sampling Estimation of an Open Economy Model with Fiscal Policy," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS111, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    18. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 26606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Cross, Jamie & Kam, Timothy & Poon, Aubrey, 2025. "Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2024. "Tax shocks, firm entry, and productivity in the open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    21. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    22. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    23. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    24. Ong, Kian, 2018. "Do fiscal spending news shocks generate financial spillovers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 46-49.
    25. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2024. "Fiscal spillover in emerging economies: Real versus financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    26. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    27. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel Murphy & Eric Young & Kieran Walsh, 2018. "Debt Burdens and the Interest Rate Response to Fiscal Stimulus: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," 2018 Meeting Papers 936, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel Murphy & Kieran James Walsh & Eric R. Young, 2019. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Discussion Papers Series 609, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    29. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2024. "Global shocks, budgets deficits, and international fiscal policy coordination," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1341-1363, August.
    30. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    32. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Drivers of international fiscal spillovers," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 1491-1536, November.
    33. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    34. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel P. Murphy & Kieran Walsh & Eric Young, 2020. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus," Working Papers 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    35. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.

  12. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2016. "The Effect Of Labor And Financial Frictions On Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 313-341, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Time-Varying Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 319-338, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2015. "Factor adjustment costs: A structural investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 341-355.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Andrea Carriero & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2015. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1223-1238, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "The International Transmission Of Volatility Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 512-533, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.

    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2016. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states," Working Papers 204, Bank of Greece.

  18. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.

    Cited by:

    1. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    2. Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2019. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.08, Bank of Israel.
    3. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    4. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "UK macroeconomic volatility: Historical evidence over seven centuries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 767-789.
    5. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    6. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "An Assessment of UK Macroeconomic Volatility: Historical Evidence Using Over Seven Centuries of Data," Working Papers 201779, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Serdar Neslihanoglu & Stelios Bekiros & John McColl & Duncan Lee, 2021. "Multivariate time-varying parameter modelling for stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 947-972, August.
    9. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Steady‐state growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 40-52, April.
    12. George Kapetanios & Stephen Millard & Katerina Petrova & Simon Price, 2018. "Time Varying Cointegration and the UK Great Ratios," CAMA Working Papers 2018-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7691, CESifo.
    14. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    15. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    16. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    18. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Forecast evaluation of DSGE models: Linear and nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1130, September.
    19. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-128.
    20. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    21. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    22. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    23. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    24. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    25. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    26. Oguzhan Ozcelik, 2022. "Effects of Uncertainties on Mode of Payment Terms in Foreign Trade between Turkey and the US: The Time-Varying Bootstrap Causality Test (Türkiye-ABD Dış Ticaretinde Ödeme Şekli Tercihlerine Belirsizli," Business and Economics Research Journal, Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256.
    27. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    28. Schlösser, Alexander, 2020. "Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 838, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    29. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    30. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017. "Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data," MPRA Paper 81772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    32. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.
    33. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    34. Kyle E. Binder & James W. Mjelde, 2018. "Projecting impacts of carbon dioxide emission reductions in the US electric power sector: evidence from a data-rich approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 143-155, November.

  19. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.

    Cited by:

    1. Mountford, Andrew & Wadswoirth, Jonathan, 2024. "Immigration, Demand, Supply and Sectoral Heterogeneity in the UK Labor Market: A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 122836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    3. Akbari Dehbaghi, Simin & Arman, Seyed Aziz & Ahangari, Majid, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran's economy: Global Modeling," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 151-180, April.
    4. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Working Papers No 5/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.
    7. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    8. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 757, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Hamano, Masashige & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: Lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Ying Lun Cheung, 2024. "Identification of Time-Varying Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 76-94, January.
    11. Fasianos, Apostolos & Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 14656, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2018. "How far does monetary policy reach? Evidence from factor-augmented vector autoregressions for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 49(3), pages 191-216.
    13. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 26606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in Mongolia: A dynamic model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 102602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Malliaris, Anastasios, 2023. "House Bubbles, global imbalances and monetary policy in the US," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Takeshi Yagihashi & David D. Selover, 2017. "How Do the Trans-Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2097-2124, October.
    18. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    19. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.

  20. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 535-558, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    2. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    3. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    4. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2024. "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    5. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Hu, Chunyang & Zhou, Yang, 2025. "Do domestic and US economic policy uncertainty increase China’s macro-financial risk connectedness?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    8. Emre Sakar & Mahmut Unsal Sasmaz & Ahmet Ozen, 2025. "The Nexus Between Tax Revenue, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-34, July.
    9. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    11. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2018. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," 2018 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    13. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2018. "Monetary Policy Volatility Shocks in Brazil," Working Papers Series 480, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2017. "Uncertainty-driven Business Cycles: Assessing the Markup Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 6303, CESifo.
    15. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2016. "Incorporating economic policy uncertainty in US equity premium models: A nonlinear predictability analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 291-296.
    16. Engin Kara & Ahmed Pirzada, 2021. "Evaluating effectiveness of price level targeting in the presence of increasing uncertainty," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/737, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    17. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Tyler Atkinson & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2020. "Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2009, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    20. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2017. "The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1052-1064.
    21. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    23. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2020. "Financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty: a case for timely policy action," Working Papers 687, DNB.
    25. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    26. Klodiana Istrefi & A. Piloiu, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Working papers 511, Banque de France.
    27. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in OECD countries: how important is the extent of policy uncertainty?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 683-703, July.
    28. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    29. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Investment Under Uncertainty in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1193-1217, October.
    30. Sugata Marjit & Suryaprakash Mishra & Sanghita Mandal & Mayukh Basu, 2026. "Monetary Policy and Interest rate Volatility – The Role of Inequality and Imperfect Credit Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 12556, CESifo.
    31. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    32. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    33. Caglayan, Mustafa & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2016. "Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 75250, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2016.
    34. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    35. Bijapur, Mohan, 2014. "What Drives Business Cycle Fluctuations: Aggregate or Idiosyncratic Uncertainty Shocks?," MPRA Paper 60361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Fabio Panetta, 2015. "Prudential policy at times of stagnation: a view from the trenches," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 300, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    37. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    38. Fu, Buben & Luo, Daqing, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and bank leverage: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    39. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    40. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR," Working Papers 855, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    41. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
    42. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2025_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    43. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    44. Hassanpour, Mohammadreza & Mahmoudzadeh, Amineh & Madanizadeh, Seyed Ali, 2025. "Unraveling exchange rate shocks: Disentangling extensive and intensive effects on the lending channel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    45. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    46. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    47. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    48. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    49. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    50. Kui-Wai, Li & Bharat R., Hazari, 2015. "The Possible Tragedy of Quantitative Easing: An IS-LM Approach," MPRA Paper 64652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    52. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  22. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.

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    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Paper series 06_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo MM & Taylor, AM Robert, 2022. "Transformed Regression-based Long-Horizon Predictability Tests," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 30620, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    5. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2019. "Is there any theory that explains the SEK?," MPRA Paper 95072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2019.
    8. Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Martínez-Martin, Jaime & Ortega, Eva, 2020. "Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2383, European Central Bank.
    9. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Abbate, Angela, 2016. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11559, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 781-807, December.
    11. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    12. Martin McCarthy & Stephen Snudden, 2025. "Forecasts of Period-average Exchange Rates: Insights from Real-time Daily Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2025-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
    14. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 26606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," MPRA Paper 58956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    17. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2013. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Role of Supply Shocks Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79821, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    19. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Wróblewska, Justyna, 2019. "Insulating property of the flexible exchange rate regime: A case of Central and Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 93813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency," Working Papers No 09/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    21. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    22. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
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    135. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    136. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Global convergence of inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    137. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    138. Haroon Mumtaz & Sofia Velasco, 2026. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility," Papers 2604.03681, arXiv.org.
    139. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Bayesian model comparison for time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    140. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    141. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.

  26. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral Technology Shocks And The Dynamics Of Labor Input: Results From An Agnostic Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2015. "Factor adjustment costs: A structural investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 341-355.
    2. Michael Ellington & Chris Martin & Bingsong Wang, 2024. "Revisiting Real Wage Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 613-626, March.
    3. Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Discussion Papers 2436, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Matthias Gubler & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S," Working Papers 2013-05, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Rohan Churm & Mike Joyce & George Kapetanios & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    6. Klein, Mathias & Krause, Christopher, 2015. "Technology-Labor and Fiscal Spending Crowding-in Puzzles: The Role of Interpersonal Comparison," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Saidul Islam, 2024. "Investment-specific technology shocks and business cycle: evidence from a sign restriction approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 249-283, June.
    8. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    11. Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2016. "News shocks and labour market dynamics in matching models," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 906-930, August.
    12. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    13. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2025_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    14. Francesco Zanetti & Federico S. Mandelman, 2013. "Flexible prices, labor market frictions and the response of employment to technology shocks," Economics Series Working Papers 683, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10930, CESifo.
    17. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Zanetti, Francesco, 2018. "State dependence in labor market fluctuations: evidence, theory, and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90380, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Stefan Schiman, 2021. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve: Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 108-127, April.
    20. Madeira, Carlos & Salazar, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of monetary policy on a labor market with heterogeneous workers: The case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    21. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 26606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino, 2024. "Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    23. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "News and Labor Market Dynamics in the Data and in Matching Models," Economics Series Working Papers 699, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    25. Consolo, Agostino & Petroulakis, Filippos, 2022. "Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?," Working Paper Series 2703, European Central Bank.
    26. Martin Iseringhausen & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2025. "A survey-based measure of asymmetric macroeconomic risk in the euro area," Working Papers 68, European Stability Mechanism, revised 11 Feb 2025.
    27. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    28. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State Dependence In Labor Market Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1072, August.
    29. Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Tony Yates, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    30. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    31. Agostino Consolo & Claudia Foroni & Catalina Martínez Hernández, 2023. "A Mixed Frequency BVAR for the Euro Area Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 1048-1082, October.
    32. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Labor Market Dynamics: a Time-varying Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 728, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    33. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    34. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    35. Alok Johri & Muhebullah Karimzada, 2018. "Learning Efficiency Shocks, Knowledge Capital and the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Evaluation," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-18, McMaster University.
    36. Michael Ellington & Chris Martin & Bingsong Wang, 2024. "Evolving Beveridge Curve Dynamics," Working Papers 2024007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    37. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.
    38. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Hjelm, Linnéa, 2026. "The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!," Working Paper Series 3180, European Central Bank.

  27. Haroon Mumtaz & Ozlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through into U.K. import prices: evidence from disaggregated data," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue June.

    Cited by:

    1. Md Deluair Hossen, 2023. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Data Frequency: Firm-Level Evidence from Bangladesh," Papers 2303.04101, arXiv.org.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2013. "Exchange rate pass through, macro fundamentals and regime choice in Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 163-171.
    3. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia, 2016. "A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 985-1000.

  28. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Kostas Mavromatis, 2020. "Finite Horizons and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 327-378, September.
    2. Boris Blagov, 2013. "Financial crises and time- varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-Switching DSGE model for Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    3. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    5. Sergey Ivashchenko & Semih Emre Çekin & Kevin Kotzé & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Forecasting with Second-Order Approximations and Markov-Switching DSGE Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 747-771, December.
    6. William A. Barnett & Giovanni Bella & Taniya Ghosh & Paolo Mattana & Beatrice Venturi, 2021. "Chaos in the UK New Keynesian Macroeconomy," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202119, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2021.
    7. Yuki Murakami, 2025. "Time-Varying Volatility in Emerging Market Business Cycles," Working Papers 2514, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    8. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State dependence in labour market fluctuations," Working Papers 47, European Stability Mechanism.
    9. Baranowski, Paweł & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," MPRA Paper 70573, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2016.
    10. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2017. "Should the ECB coordinate EMU fiscal policies?," Working Papers 2018_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
    12. Zamarripa, Rene, 2024. "Parameter instabilities and monetary policy in a small open economy: Evidence from an estimated model for the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    13. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    14. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    15. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models," Working Papers No 4/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Alstadheim, Ragna & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2021. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    18. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    19. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 882, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Barnett, William A. & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2022. "Is policy causing chaos in the United Kingdom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    22. Oliveira, Eleonora de & Palma, Andreza A. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2024. "A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    23. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    24. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions and Structural Changes: A Markov-Switching DSGE Approach," Working Papers 201748, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Choi, Jinho & Hur, Joonyoung, 2015. "An examination of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea exploiting a Markov-switching DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-199.
    26. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong s linked exchange rate system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    27. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2018. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6887, CESifo.
    28. Alex Haberis & Anna Lipińska, 2020. "A Welfare‐Based Analysis of International Monetary Policy Spillovers at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1107-1145, August.
    29. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation," Working Paper 2013/24, Norges Bank.
    30. Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba & Lisandro Fermin & Soledad Torres, 2025. "Modeling Maximum drawdown Records with Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processe in Capital Markets," Papers 2503.23221, arXiv.org.
    31. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    32. Himmels, Christoph & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2018. "Discretionary policy in a small open economy: Exchange rate regimes and multiple equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-64.
    33. Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    34. Lenhle Dlamini & Harold Ngalawa, 2022. "Macroprudential policy and house prices in an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for South Africa," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 304-336, June.
    35. Sebasti√°n Cadavid S√°nchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    36. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    37. Kirsanova, Tatiana & le Roux, Stephanus, 2013. "Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-52, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    38. Karamé, Frédéric, 2018. "A new particle filtering approach to estimate stochastic volatility models with Markov-switching," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 204-230.
    39. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2021. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies in the UK," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(4), pages 445-467, November.
    40. Hur, Joonyoung & Lee, Kang Koo, 2017. "Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 473-486.
    41. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    42. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 117-135, August.

  29. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Jean M. Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2010. "One TV, One Price?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 753-781, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    2. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    3. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2015. "Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    6. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    7. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
    8. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    9. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    10. Dungey, Mardi & Tugrul Vehbi, M, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," Working Papers 11610, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    11. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    12. Francesco Zanetti & Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 838, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    14. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    15. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    16. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    17. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    18. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    20. Han, Xu, 2015. "Tests for overidentifying restrictions in Factor-Augmented VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 394-419.
    21. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    22. Kwangyong Park, 2020. "The Excess Sensitivity of Long-term Interest rates and Central Bank Credibility," Working Papers 2020-29, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    23. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    24. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets?," Working Papers 2015_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    25. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    26. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    27. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
    28. Daniel R. Kowal & Antonio Canale, 2021. "Semiparametric Functional Factor Models with Bayesian Rank Selection," Papers 2108.02151, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    29. Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    30. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    31. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.
    32. Constantino Hevia & Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," BCAM Working Papers 1403, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    33. Jamie L. Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Working Papers No 11/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    34. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 20831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2010.
    35. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
    36. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    37. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    38. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.
    39. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André Santos, 2015. "Measuring Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios using Yield Curve Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 65-82, June.
    40. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    41. Chan R. Mang, 2014. "Uncertain Risk and Return in Bond Markets, I," 2014 Papers pma1706, Job Market Papers.
    42. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 26-41.
    43. Renato Faccini & Stephen Millard & Francesco Zanetti, 2011. "Wage rigidities in an estimated DSGE model of the UK labour market," Bank of England working papers 408, Bank of England.
    44. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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  33. Benito, Andrew & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "Excess Sensitivity, Liquidity Constraints, And The Collateral Role Of Housing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 305-326, June.

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    1. Andrew Benito & Jumana Saleheen, 2013. "Labour Supply as a Buffer: Evidence from UK Households," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(320), pages 698-720, October.
    2. Umar Faruqui & Samah Torchani, 2012. "How Important Are Liquidity Constraints for Canadian Households? Evidence from Micro-Data," Discussion Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.
    3. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "A DSGE-based assessment of nonlinear loan-to-Value policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. James Cloyne & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Household debt and the dynamic effects of income tax changes," Bank of England working papers 491, Bank of England.
    5. Guo, Sheng, 2010. "The superior measure of PSID consumption: An update," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 253-256, September.
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    7. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Valuing homeownership," Working Papers CEB 09-006.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2018. "Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 632-657, October.
    9. John Gathergood & Joerg Weber, 2015. "Is Poor Financial Literacy a Barrier to Home Ownership?," Discussion Papers 2015/16, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    10. Stephen Burgess & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Charlotta Groth & Richard Harrison & Francesca Monti & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Matt Waldron, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    11. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
    12. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    13. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    14. Tatiana Kirsanova & Jack Rogers, 2013. "Fixed versus Variable Rate Debt Contracts and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 1306, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
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    18. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2014. "Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Irish Households, 1994 to 2005," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 511-535.
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  34. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.

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    1. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
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    3. Mountford, Andrew & Wadswoirth, Jonathan, 2024. "Immigration, Demand, Supply and Sectoral Heterogeneity in the UK Labor Market: A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 122836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    5. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "What drives the global interest rate," Globalization Institute Working Papers 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1713-1730, September.
    7. Akbari Dehbaghi, Simin & Arman, Seyed Aziz & Ahangari, Majid, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran's economy: Global Modeling," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 151-180, April.
    8. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
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    10. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, April.
    11. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 557-567, January.
    12. Mountford, Andrew, 2025. "Identifying the Shocks also Identifies the Constants: Implications for VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 126806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Steven Wei Ho & Ji Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2018. "Hot Money and Quantitative Easing: The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on the Chinese Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1543-1569, October.
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    87. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Malliaris, Anastasios, 2023. "House Bubbles, global imbalances and monetary policy in the US," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    88. Han, Xu, 2018. "Estimation and inference of dynamic structural factor models with over-identifying restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 125-147.
    89. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2015. "Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 65-136, September.
    90. Eickmeier Sandra, 2010. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
    91. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    92. Signe Rosenberg, 2018. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on House Prices in the Scandinavian Countries," TUT Economic Research Series 44, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    93. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    94. Anastasios Evgenidis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2015. "What are the International Channels Through Which a US Policy Shock is Transmitted to The World Economies? Evidence from a Time Varying FAVAR," Working Papers 190, Bank of Greece.
    95. Mattera, Raffaele & Franses, Philip Hans, 2025. "Forecasting house price growth rates with factor models and spatio-temporal clustering," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 398-417.
    96. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2014. "Latin American Performance to External Shocks: What Has Really Been Sweat?," MPRA Paper 57816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    97. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    98. Carolina Pagliacci, 2019. "Are we ignoring supply shocks? A proposal for monitoring cyclical fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 445-467, February.
    99. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    100. ONATSKI, Alexei & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2010. "Factor Analysis of a Large DSGE Model," Cahiers de recherche 2010-08, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    101. Takeshi Yagihashi & David D. Selover, 2017. "How Do the Trans-Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2097-2124, October.
    102. Igor Ljubaj, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy on Household and Corporate Loans: a FAVEC Approach," Working Papers 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    103. Heinlein, Reinhold & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2012. "On the construction of two-country cointegrated VAR models with an application to the UK and US," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    104. Laganà, Gianluca & Sgro, Pasquale Michael, 2013. "North American trade and US monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 698-705.
    105. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    106. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    107. Baharudin, Azfar Hilmi, 2018. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Analysis of Price and Industrial Shocks on the Malaysian Economy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 191-204.
    108. Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    109. Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "The international transmission of US shocks—Evidence from Bayesian global vector autoregressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 167-188.
    110. Marina Delmondes de Carvalho & José Luiz Rossi Júnior, 2010. "Identification of monetary policy shocks and its effects: FAVAR methodology for the Brazilian economy," Business and Economics Working Papers 106, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    111. Hans Genberg & Özer Karagedikli, 2021. "Machine Learning and Central Banks: Ready for Prime Time?," Working Papers wp43, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    112. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    113. Anastasios Evgenidis & Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1549-1579, May.
    114. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature," Post-Print hal-01385974, HAL.
    115. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
    116. Hongyi Chen & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy: A Factor-augmented VAR Approach," Working Papers 092016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    117. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jørn I. Halvorsen, 2014. "How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 208-232, April.
    118. Mirela Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 280730188, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    119. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    120. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    121. N. Melisa Bilgin & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Producer Price Inflation Connectedness and Input-Output Networks," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1813, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

  35. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "International influences on domestic prices and activities: a FAVAR approach to open economy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.

  36. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 639-649, 04/05.

    Cited by:

    1. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank.
    2. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Law of One Price: Nonlinearities in Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Christian Daude & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Arne Nagengast, 2014. "On the Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Interventions in Emerging Markets," CID Working Papers 288, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    5. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Georg H. Strasser, 2010. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
    7. Camarero, Mariam & Ordóñez, Javier, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 444-449.
    8. Hongjun Li & Zhongjian Lin & Cheng Hsiao, 2015. "Testing purchasing power parity hypothesis: a semiparametric varying coefficient approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 427-438, February.
    9. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    10. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    11. Berka, Martin, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristics of goods," MPRA Paper 8606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
    12. Caputo, Rodrigo, 2015. "Persistent real misalignments and the role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-116.
    13. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "On the performance of a nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity in the presence of linearity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1389-1396.
    14. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    15. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda Tesar, 2005. "A Re-Examination of the Border Effect," NBER Working Papers 11706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jyh‐Lin Wu & Pei‐Fen Chen & Ching‐Nun Lee, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity, Productivity Differentials And Non‐Linearity," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 271-287, June.
    17. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1076-1093, October.
    18. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    19. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1125-1132.
    20. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Luciana Juvenal & Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2008. "Mexico’s Integration into NAFTA Markets: A View from Sectoral Real Exchange Rates and Transaction Costs," IMF Working Papers 2008/123, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    23. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.
    24. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    25. López-Suárez, Carlos Felipe & Rodríguez-López, José Antonio, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 877-895, September.
    26. Marina Glushenkova & Andros Kourtellos & Marios Zachariadis, 2016. "Barriers to price convergence," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2016, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    27. Rodolphe Blavy & Luciana Juvenal, 2008. "Mexico's integration into NAFTA markets: a view from sectoral real exchange rates," Working Papers 2008-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    28. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    29. Brenton, Paul & Portugal-Perez, Alberto & Regolo, Julie, 2014. "Food prices, road infrastructure, and market integration in Central and Eastern Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7003, The World Bank.
    30. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    31. Chi-Young Choi & Anthony Murphy & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2017. "Segmentation of consumer markets in the US: What do intercity price differences tell us?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 738-777, August.
    32. Kai-yin Woo & Shu-kam Lee & Paul Kwok Shum, 2021. "Evidence on PPP with China along the belt and road using the three-regime TAR cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2391-2405, May.
    33. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Inkoo Lee & Sang Soo Park & Marios Zachariadis, 2023. "Non‐linearities in international prices," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 1032-1062, August.
    35. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., "undated". "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Research Papers 269738, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    36. Hyeyoen Kim, 2011. "Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Post-Print hal-00665456, HAL.
    37. Ming-Jen Chang, 2016. "Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence From Pacific Rim Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-20, September.
    38. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    39. Enders, Walter & Pascalau, Razvan, 2015. "Pretesting for multi-step-ahead exchange rate forecasts with STAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 473-487.
    40. Lim, Eun Son & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2019. "Free trade agreements and market integration: Evidence from South Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 241-256.
    41. Hyeyoen Kim, 2012. "Large data sets, nonlinearity and the speed of adjustment to real exchange rate shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 631-639, February.
    42. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    43. Choi, Jae Hoon & Song, Seongho, 2022. "Revisiting the PPP puzzle: Nominal exchange rate rigidity and region of inaction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    44. Lo Ming Chien, 2008. "Nonlinear PPP Deviations: A Monte Carlo Investigation of Their Unconditional Half-Life," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-31, December.

Software components

  1. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Code and data files for "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation"," Computer Codes 14-103, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Code and data files for "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: A Historical Perspective"," Computer Codes 09-235, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of software components recorded.

Books

  1. Andrew P Blake & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Applied Bayesian econometrics for central bankers," Technical Books, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 4, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan supply shocks in Macedonia: a Bayesian SVAR approach with sign restrictions," Working Papers 2016-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    2. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Working Paper Series 2026, European Central Bank.
    3. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Paper series 06_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    7. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    8. Corina SAMAN, 2016. "The Impact of the US and Euro Area Financial Systemic Stress to the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-183, December.
    9. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    10. Zahid,Hamza, 2023. "Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10402, The World Bank.
    11. Chafwehé, Boris & Colciago, Andrea & Priftis, Romanos, 2025. "Reallocation, productivity, and monetary policy in an energy crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Małgorzata Skibińska, 2017. "Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending," KAE Working Papers 2017-027, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    13. Anca Mihaela COPACIU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2022. "Spillovers in the Presence of Financial Stress – An Application to Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-43, April.
    14. Taylor, Mark & Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2016. "Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 11689, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    16. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," Working Papers 202033, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Bank of England working papers 521, Bank of England.
    18. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," Discussion Papers 1622, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    20. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
    21. Pervin, Shahida, 2018. "Dynamics and Interactions of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Investigation in the UK Economy with Bayesian VAR," MPRA Paper 91816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, "undated". "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2020:i::id:118, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    23. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    24. Yasemin Erduman & Neslihan Kaya, 2014. "Determinants of Bond Flows to Emerging Markets: How Do They Change Over Time?," Working Papers 1428, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    25. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Hamano, Masashige & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: Lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    26. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    27. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Sorokin, 2015. "Evaluating the underlying inflation measures for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps4, Bank of Russia.
    28. Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    29. Fasianos, Apostolos & Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 14656, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Zahid,Hamza, 2023. "Commodity Price Cycles :Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10401, The World Bank.
    31. Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting," CQE Working Papers 10422, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    32. Rodion Lomivorotov, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    33. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    34. Karel Bruna & Quang Van Tran, 2018. "Inflation Targeting and Variability of Money Market Interest Rates Under a Zero Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 519-539, December.
    35. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    36. Matei KUBINSCHI & Dinu BARNEA, 2016. "Systemic Risk Impact on Economic Growth - The Case of the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 79-94, December.
    37. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    38. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    39. Vlasov, S. & Deryugina, E., 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 104-119.
    40. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    41. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    42. Glocker, Christian & Url, Thomas, 2022. "Financial sector rescue programs: Domestic and cross border effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    43. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    44. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    45. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.
    46. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    47. Shevelev A.A., 2017. "Bayesian approach to evaluate the impact of external shocks on Russian macroeconomics indicators," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 17(1), pages 26-40.
    48. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Bayesian Modelling Of Inflation Rate In Romania," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(2), pages 147-160, June.
    49. Pestova, Anna (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail (Мамонов, Михаил), 2016. "Estimating the Influence of Different Shocks on Macroeconomic Indicators and Developing Conditional Forecasts on the Basis of BVAR Model for the Russian Economy [Оценка Влияния Различных Шоков На Динамику Макроэкономических Показателей В России И ," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 56-92, August.
    50. Pami Dua, 2017. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(2), pages 209-226, June.
    51. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
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