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Haroon Mumtaz

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. On QE
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2012-02-06 21:06:45
    2. The problem with promises
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2015-04-14 18:16:07
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecasting National Inflation Rates
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2014-08-24 14:00:24
    2. Forecasting National Inflation Rates
      by Robert Balaban in St. Louis Fed On the Economy on 2014-08-21 15:00:38

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.

    Mentioned in:

    1. PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate (QJE 2005) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2009) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2023. "A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy," Discussion Papers 2308, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Fagereng & Magnus A. H. Gulbrandsen & Martin B. Holm & Gisle J. Natvik, 2021. "How does monetary policy affect household indebtedness?," Working Paper 2021/5, Norges Bank.
    2. Gomes, Sandra & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2023. "A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area," Working Paper Series 2769, European Central Bank.
    3. Theo Drossidis & Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2024. "The Distributional Effects of Oil Supply New Shocks," Working Papers 975, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Paul Hubert & Frédérique Savignac, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Labor Income Inequality: the Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04524715, HAL.
    5. Vasileios Karaferis, 2025. "Inequality, Labour Market Dynamics and the Policy Mix: Insights from a FLANK," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 319, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

  2. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Discussion Papers 2024, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can we use high-frequency yield data to better understand the effects of monetary policy and its communication? Yes and no!," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-03 Classification-E4, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    2. Braun, Robin & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Saha, Tuli, 2023. "Measuring Monetary Policy in the UK: the UK Monetary Policy Event-Study Database," CEPR Discussion Papers 18595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kramkov, Viacheslav & Maksimov, Andrey, 2024. "Monetary surprises and term structure of interest rates: Identification through heteroscedasticity," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 5-34.
    4. Adra, Samer & Menassa, Elie, 2022. "The Fed’s dual shocks and the housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2022. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    9. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    10. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Can we Use High‐Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(328), pages 3-43, March.
    11. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England, revised 31 Aug 2022.

  3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "The Federal Reserve s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2018. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 274, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Chin, Michael & Graeve, Ferre De & Filippeli, Thomai & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Understanding International Long-Term Interest Rate Comovement," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields, and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2100, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2023. "The Impacts of Global Risk and US Monetary Policy on US Dollar Exchange Rates and Excess Currency Returns," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2037, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

  4. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Working Paper Series 2513, European Central Bank.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    3. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Salisu, Afees A. & van Eyden, Reneé, 2023. "Firm-level business uncertainty and the predictability of the aggregate U.S. stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 295-302.
    6. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," Economics Working Papers 2021-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Sonali Das, 2021. "Forecasting Output Growth of Advanced Economies Over Eight Centuries: The Role of Gold Market Volatility as a Proxy of Global Uncertainty," Working Papers 202133, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Matsumoto, Ryo & Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2022. "Central Bank Information Effects in Japan : The Role of Uncertainty Channel," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-126, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "Amplification effects of news shocks through uncertainty," 2017 Papers pca1251, Job Market Papers.
    12. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    13. Ascari, Guido & Fasani, Stefano & Grazzini, Jakob & Rossi, Lorenza, 2023. "Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 48-63.
    14. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhou, Jinlan & Du, Xiaodong, 2022. "Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Xi Wang & Jiayang Li & Guangbin Zhang, 2022. "Mixed Monetary–Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 167-196, March.
    17. Hiroshi Morita & Ryo Matsumoto & Taiki Ono, 2025. "Central bank information effects in Japan: the role of uncertainty channel," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 855-877, February.
    18. Smart Asomaning Sarpong & Akwasi Agyei, 2022. "Interactions Between Water Level, Crude Oil, and Hydroelectric Power Generation in Ghana; A Structured Vector Auto Regression Approach," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, May.
    19. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    20. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    21. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yang, Miao & Ge, Xinyu & Zhao, Chen, 2025. "Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate credit financing in China: The role of accounting information quality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    22. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2023. "Structural sources of oil market volatility and correlation dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    23. Francesco Ferlaino, 2024. "Does the financial accelerator accelerate inequalities?," Working Papers 538, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    24. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Chen, Peng & Miao, Xinru & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2023. "Do gold prices respond more to uncertainty shocks at the zero lower bound?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    26. Li, Shengfeng & Hoque, Hafiz & Thijssen, Jacco, 2021. "Firm financial behaviour dynamics and interactions: A structural vector autoregression approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    27. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    28. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  5. Mumtaz, Haroon & Musso, Alberto, 2018. "The evolving impact of global, region-specific and country-specific uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2147, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Financial integration or financial fragmentation? A euro area perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Tang, Guohao & Chen, Jian, 2025. "External trade policy uncertainty, corporate risk exposure, and stock market volatility," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    5. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    6. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
    7. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    12. Ignacio Garr'on & C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," Papers 2410.20628, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    13. Garrón Vedia, Ignacio & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 44814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Emmanuel O. Nwosu, 2023. "Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(4), pages 528-557, December.
    15. Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Europe: Spillovers and Common Shocks," Working Papers IES 2024/34, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2024.
    16. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Qatar-Gulf Crisis and Risk Management in Oil and Gas Markets," Working Papers hal-02101633, HAL.
    17. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
    18. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    20. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    21. Jawadi, Fredj & Pondie, Thierry M., 2024. "Political uncertainty and macro-financial dynamics in the BRICS," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    22. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    23. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    24. Priscila Espinosa & Jose M. Pavía, 2023. "Automation in Regional Economic Synthetic Index Construction with Uncertainty Measurement," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, April.
    25. Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Davidmac O. Ekeocha, 2024. "Terrorism and economic complexity in Africa: The unconditional impact of military expenditure," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 139-152, March.
    26. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 169-185, May.

  6. Haroon Mumtaz & Ahmed Pirzada & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Non-linear effects of oil shocks on stock prices," Working Papers 865, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," Working Paper Series 2834, European Central Bank.
    2. Ioannis Arampatzidis & Theologos Dergiades & Robert. K. Kaufmann & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. Stock Market: Implications for Low Carbon Policies," Working Paper series 21-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Battistini, Niccolò & Falagiarda, Matteo & Hackmann, Angelina & Roma, Moreno, 2022. "Navigating the housing channel of monetary policy across euro area regions," Working Paper Series 2752, European Central Bank.
    4. Davidson, Sharada Nia & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2024. "The nonlinear effects of banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2912, European Central Bank.

  7. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "Measuring the origins of macroeconomic uncertainty," Working Papers 864, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.

  8. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and Stock Prices in the United State," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Andre & Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 202309, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    4. Emmanuel O. Akande & Jeremiah D. Dandaura & Elijah Akanni, 2024. "Monetary policy instruments and inflation in Nigeria: a revisit of FAVAR," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-36, February.
    5. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets," Working Papers 201956, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 201742, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Miyazaki, Tomomi & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2024. "Stock market response to public investment under the zero lower bound: Cross-industry evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Centinaio, Alessandra & Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2024. "Government decisions and macroeconomic stability: Fiscal policies and financial market fluctuations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    12. Haroon Mumtaz & Katerina Petrova, 2023. "Changing Impact of Shocks: A Time‐Varying Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 635-654, March.
    13. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2022. "Money, debt, and the effects of fiscal stimulus," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-178.
    14. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen, 2020. "125 ​Years of time-varying effects of fiscal policy on financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 303-320.
    15. Boniface Yemba & Yi Duan & Nabaneeta Biswas, 2023. "Government spending news and stock price index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1816-1841.
    16. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to Legislated Tax Changes: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202047, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B., 2024. "The role of shifts in the effective tax rate on the cost of equity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 61-72.
    18. Shahida Perveen, Mustaghis-ur-Rahman, 2018. "Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Study of Pakistan Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(2), pages 2-23, October.
    19. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 377-381, May.
    20. Gkolfinopoulou, Michalitsa & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2025. "Effects of Tax Shocks on Inequality: Empirical Evidence from the United Kingdom," MPRA Paper 123457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  9. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR," Working Papers 855, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
    2. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz, 2020. "A Generalised Stochastic Volatility in Mean VAR. An Updated Algorithm," Working Papers 908, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2024. "Approximate Factor Models with a Common Multiplicative Factor for Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper series 24-04, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Antonio M. Conti & Elisa Guglielminetti & Marianna Riggi, 2019. "Labour productivity and the wageless recovery," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2023. "Structural sources of oil market volatility and correlation dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Joseph P Byrne & Erkal Ersoy, 2020. "Endogenous Uncertainty in the Oil Market: A Bayesian Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean Analysis," CEERP Working Paper Series 012, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    12. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  10. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann, 2017. "Non-linear effects of government spending shocks in the US. Evidence from state-level data," Working Papers 841, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    2. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2023. "Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2669-2709, December.
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Global and Country-Specific Climate Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 655-682, March.
    4. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    5. Li, Mingyang & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Faster fiscal stimulus and a higher government spending multiplier in China: Mixed-frequency identification with SVAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Wifag Adnan & Kerim Peren Arin & Aysegul Corakci & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022. "On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 991-1036, January.
    7. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-9, September.
    8. Matarrese, Marco Maria & Frangiamore, Francesco, 2023. "Italian local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from proxy-SVAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Davidson, Sharada Nia & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2024. "The nonlinear effects of banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2912, European Central Bank.
    10. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2024. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Working Paper Series 2972, European Central Bank.
    11. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A Note on State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 202187, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    13. Coppola, Gianluigi & Destefanis, Sergio & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo, 2024. "Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 538-556.
    14. Murray, James, 2024. "Fiscal policy reactions and impact over the labor income distribution," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 701-718.
    15. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giuliodori, Massimo & Lengyel, Andras & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2023. "Changing patterns of risk-sharing channels in the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 2849, European Central Bank.

  11. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "US financial shocks and the distribution of income and consumption in the UK," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Eickmeier & Benedikt Kolb & Esteban Prieto, 2018. "Effects of bank capital requirement tightenings on inequality," CAMA Working Papers 2018-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Ayako Saiki & Jon Frost, 2018. "Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy and Income Distribution: Revisited," Working Papers e126, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    3. George J. Bratsiotis & Kasun D. Pathirage, 2023. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2304, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  12. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Online Appendix to "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation"," Online Appendices 14-103, Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2018. "Labor market and financial shocks: a time varying analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1179, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
    3. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Jordà , Òscar & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 18166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    5. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    6. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    9. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    11. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    12. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    13. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    14. Hamza Bennani & Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model," Working Paper Series 2020-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    15. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    16. Graziano Moramarco, 2025. "Regime‐Switching Density Forecasts Using Economists' Scenarios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 833-845, March.
    17. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2017. "How to predict financial stress? An assessment of Markov switching models," Working Paper Series 2057, European Central Bank.
    18. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    20. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula, 2018. "A Profit-to-Provisioning Approach to Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Czech Example," Working Papers 2018/5, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    21. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    22. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    23. Gokan Toshitaka & Kichiko, Sergey & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2018. "How do trade and communication costs shape the spatial organization of firms?," IDE Discussion Papers 706, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    24. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    25. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    26. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    27. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness and the Business Cycle - Through the MIDAS Lens," CAMA Working Papers 2022-69, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    28. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus & Tuomas Peltonen, 2016. "Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries," Staff Working Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    29. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    30. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
    31. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2025. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, January.
    32. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    33. Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    34. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    35. Baek, Ingul & Liu, Jia & Noh, Sanha, 2024. "Real estate uncertainty and financial conditions over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 656-675.
    36. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino & Laust L. Særkjær, 2025. "The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier," CESifo Working Paper Series 11853, CESifo.
    37. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    38. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    39. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Fusun Celebi Boz & Melike Torun, 2024. "Do Economic and Financial Stabilities Matter for Political Stability in Estonia?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15202-15217, September.
    40. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    41. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    42. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    43. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2022. "Nonlinear transmission of financial shocks: Some new evidence," Working Paper 2022/3, Norges Bank.
    44. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    45. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    46. Alahverdi, Atefe & Daei-Karimzadeh, Saeed & Ghobadi, Sara, 2023. "Forecasting the Trend of Macroeconomic Variables in Terms of Financial Conditions Index in Iran: TVP-FAVAR Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(3), pages 161-185, December.
    47. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    48. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    49. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
    51. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    52. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, Doguhan Sundal, 2020. "Business cycles, financial conditions and nonlinearities," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    53. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    54. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    55. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
    56. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    57. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    58. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    59. Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    60. Moritz A. Roth, 2018. "International co-movements in recessions," Working Papers 1804, Banco de España.
    61. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Leonardo Del Vecchio & Arianna Miglietta, 2019. "Financial Conditions and 'Growth at Risk' in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    62. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    63. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé & Thompson, Kirsten & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2018. "Comparing the forecasting ability of financial conditions indices: The case of South Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 245-259.
    64. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    65. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    67. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    68. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    69. Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez & Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, 2021. "Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1165, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    70. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    71. Capasso Salvatore & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Vivero, 2023. "The Financial Conditions Index as an additional tool for policymakers in developing countries: the Mexican case," CSEF Working Papers 664, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    72. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    73. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    74. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    75. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    76. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    77. Joerg Schmidt, 2019. "Risk, Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission in Europe: Evidence from a Threshold-VAR approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201928, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    78. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    79. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    80. Martin Harding & Rafael Wouters, 2022. "Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions," Staff Working Papers 22-37, Bank of Canada.

  13. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Francesco Zanetti & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu, 2019. "Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 880, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Masashige Hamano & Philip Schnattinger & Mototsugu Shintani & Iichiro Uesugi & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Credit Market Tightness and Zombie Firms: Theory and Evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2025-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2021. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2021-02 Classification-E3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    5. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 18-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "Identification at the Zero Lower Bound," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2855-2885, November.
    8. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers 753, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s evolving QE programme: a model-based analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 823-845, November.
    10. Stefan Hohberger & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Staff Working Papers 18-11, Bank of Canada.
    11. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. M. Casares & H. Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2020. "The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment," Post-Print hal-03004552, HAL.
    13. Gründler, Daniel, 2023. "Expectations, structural breaks and the recent surge in inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    14. Finkelstein Shapiroy, Alan & Olivero, Maria, 2018. "Lending Relationships and Labor Market Dynamics," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    15. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2019. "Empirical evidence on the dynamics of investment under uncertainty in the U.S," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    16. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Private Sector Debt, Financial Constraints, and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 889-915, August.
    17. Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2021. "The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2021/039, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Daisuke Ikeda & Shangshang Li & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "Testing the Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan and the United States," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "The Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Working Papers 820, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    22. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    23. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
    24. Olli-Matti Juhani Laine, 2020. "The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2899-2924, December.
    25. Inda Mulaahmetovic, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing Measures of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(3), pages 141-163.
    26. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "The Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Working Papers 173173908, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    27. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay C. Lim, 2018. "What Do We Know about the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7366, CESifo.
    28. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    29. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 32098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Zhu, Bo & Lin, Renda & Deng, Yuanyue & Chen, Pingshe & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Intersectoral systemic risk spillovers between energy and agriculture under the financial and COVID-19 crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    31. Benjamin Baker & Murat Üngör, 2025. "Effects of Quantitative Easing on Economic Sentiment: Evidence from Three Large Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(1), pages 50-83, March.
    32. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest tate differentials," Ruhr Economic Papers 600, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Marc Anderes & Alexander Rathke & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "The role of ECB communication in guiding markets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 351-383, March.
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    6. Masek, Frantisek & Zemlicka, Jan, 2024. "Average inflation targeting: how far to look into the past and the future?," Working Paper Series 2955, European Central Bank.
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    107. Nalban, Valeriu, 2018. "Sectoral intermediate goods and redistributive effects of economic policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 292-307.
    108. Jongwook Park, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Income Inequality in Korea," Working Papers 2018-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    109. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2021. "Monetary Policy and the Top 1%: Evidence from a Century of Modern Economic History," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-41, December.
    110. Panagiotis Konstantinou & Anastasios Rizos & Artemis Stratopoulou, 2023. "The dynamic effect of macroprudential policies on income inequality: some evidence," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 248-265.
    111. Bunn, Philip & Haldane, Andrew & Pugh, Alice, 2020. "Has monetary policy made you happier?," Bank of England working papers 880, Bank of England.
    112. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Känzig, Diego R. & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "Capital and income inequality: An aggregate-demand complementarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 154-169.
    113. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2018. "Monetary policy and the redistribution of net worth in the US," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91320, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    114. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Distributional consequences of conventional and unconventional monetary policy," NBP Working Papers 327, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    115. Sonan Memon & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2021. "Income inequality and macroeconomic instability," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 758-789, May.
    116. Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK," MPRA Paper 90448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    117. Dr. Ameenullah Aman & Dr. Usman Ahmad & Sumera Muhammad Saleem, 2021. "Investigating the Link Between Macroeconomic Factors and Income Inequality of Asian Countries," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 376-387, December.
    118. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Peñalver, Antonio & Perez-Bernabeu, Alberto, 2020. "The effects of monetary policy on income and wealth inequality in the U.S. Exploring different channels," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-106.
    119. Shiou‐Yen Chu, 2022. "Markups, inequality and monetary‐fiscal policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 367-395, September.
    120. Champagne, Sarah N. & Macdiarmid, Jennie I. & Olusola, Omotayo & Phimister, Euan & Guntupalli, Aravinda Meera, 2024. "Heating or eating? The framing of food and fuel poverty in UK news media," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    121. Groiss, Martin, 2024. "Equalizing Monetary Policy - the Earnings Heterogeneity Channel in Action," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    122. Momo Komatsu, 2023. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Consumption Inequality: An Analysis of Transmission Channels through TANK Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1245-1270, August.
    123. Andrea Boitani & Lorenzo Di Domenico & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Monetary policy and inequality: an heterogenous agents’ approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def133, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    124. Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Tornese, 2024. "The Distributional Effects of Economic Uncertainty," Papers 2411.12655, arXiv.org.
    125. Thomas Gries & Lukas Wiechers & Sebastian José Luna-Victoria, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and wealth inequality: evidence from the US," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1865-1874.
    126. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2022. "Forecasting stock market (realized) volatility in the United Kingdom: Is there a role of inequality?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2146-2152, April.

  15. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe Andre & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Housing Returns and Volatility: Evidence from US State-Level Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "Persistence of State-Level Uncertainty of the United States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202208, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    6. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    9. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 86-97, January.
    10. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Economic Conditions across US States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202410, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Linyan Dai & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Impact of Uncertainty on State-Level Housing Markets of the United States: The Role of Social Cohesion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-9, March.
    12. Soojin Jo & Justin J. Lee, 2019. "Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1904, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
    16. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Hankins, William B. & Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2022. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on state-level employment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.
    19. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2022. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States," Working Papers 202251, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Cepni, Oguzhan & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    22. Chung, Min-Su & Lim, Hyunjoon, 2024. "Transmission of external shocks and regional heterogeneity: Evidence from Korean province-level data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    23. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2025. "The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    24. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    25. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    26. Azzouzi, asmae & Bousselhamia, Ahmed, 2021. "Impact des chocs d'incertitude liés au Covid-19 sur l’économie marocaine [Impact of uncertainty shocks related to the Covid-19 on the Moroccan economy]," MPRA Paper 110398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Alam, Ahmed W. & Farjana, Ashupta & Houston, Reza, 2023. "Firm investment steering through state-level policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    28. Ambrocio, Gene, 2019. "Measuring household uncertainty in EU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland.

  16. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Maxand, Simone, 2020. "Identification of independent structural shocks in the presence of multiple Gaussian components," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 55-68.
    2. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    3. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.

  17. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in the UK," Working Papers 738, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Inequality in the UK. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 783, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Dr. Ameenullah Aman & Dr. Usman Ahmad & Sumera Muhammad Saleem, 2021. "Investigating the Link Between Macroeconomic Factors and Income Inequality of Asian Countries," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 376-387, December.

  18. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 757, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2022. "Financial, Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Cross-Country Portfolio Equity Flows," Working Papers REM 2022/0235, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Kumar, Virender & Dua, Pami, 2024. "What explains foreign portfolio investment inflows to BRICS countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 32-46.
    3. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    4. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Beck, Krzysztof & Jackson, Karen, 2024. "Financial, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of cross-country portfolio equity flows: The case of developed countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

  19. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "What do VARs Tell Us about the Impact of a Credit Supply Shock?," Working Papers 739, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Berrak Bahadir & Kuhelika De & William D. Lastrapes, 2020. "Household Debt, Consumption and Inequality," Working Papers 2011, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    2. Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2021. "Measuring credit crunch in Italy: evidence from a survey-based indicator," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 567-592, April.
    3. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    4. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2020. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2020-13, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    6. Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Weakness of investment in Portugal: what role do credit supply and fiscal consolidation shocks play?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 19-45, February.
    7. Borsuk, Marcin & Przeworska, Joanna & Saunders, Anthony & Serwa, Dobromił, 2024. "The macroeconomic costs of the bank tax," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. George J. Bratsiotis & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2020. "Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2014, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?," Staff Working Papers 19-38, Bank of Canada.
    11. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    12. Feng Min & Fenghua Wen & Jiayu Xu & Nan Wu, 2023. "Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2088-2108, April.
    13. Eul Noh, 2024. "Revisiting the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 943-951, August.
    14. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.
    15. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2015. "Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1528, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    17. Erkmen G. Aslim & Shin‐Yi Chou & Kuhelika De, 2024. "Business cycles and healthcare employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 2123-2161, September.
    18. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2017. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were Loan Supply Shocks?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168208, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. David Finck & Paul Rudel, 2023. "Do credit supply shocks have asymmetric effects?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1559-1597, April.
    20. Daniel Kaufmann, 2017. "Is Deflation Costly After All? The Perils of Erroneous Historical Classifications," IRENE Working Papers 17-09, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    21. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    22. Maurin, Laurent & Andersson, Malin & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," EIB Working Papers 2021/09, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    23. Kwon, Dohyoung, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Credit Spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    24. von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "The importance of credit demand for business cycle dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    25. Andersson, Malin & Maurin, Laurent & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," Working Paper Series 2606, European Central Bank.
    26. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    27. Helmut Herwartz & Simone Maxand & Hannes Rohloff, 2022. "The Link between Monetary Policy, Stock Prices, and House Prices—Evidence from a Statistical Identification Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-53, December.
    28. Olli Palm'en, 2020. "Inflation Dynamics of Financial Shocks," Papers 2006.03301, arXiv.org.
    29. Carsen Jentsch & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2016. "Proxy SVARs: Asymptotic Theory, Bootstrap Inference, and the Effects of Income Tax Changes in the United States," Working Papers (Old Series) 1619, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Elijah Broadbent & Huberto M. Ennis & Tyler Pike & Horacio Sapriza, 2024. "Bank Lending Standards and the U.S. Economy," Working Paper 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    31. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    32. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    33. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    34. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    35. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    36. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.

  20. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 752, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    2. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Syeda Beena Zaidi & Abidullah Khan & Shabeer Khan & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Wadi B. Alonazi & Abul Ala Noman, 2023. "Connectedness between Pakistan’s Stock Markets with Global Factors: An Application of Quantile VAR Network Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Sun, Yunpeng & Lu, Zhou & Bao, Qun & Li, Ying & Li, Haoning, 2022. "The Belt & Road Initiative and the public and private debts of participating countries: The role of China's economic policy uncertainty," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 179-193.
    5. Chris Redl, 2019. "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
    7. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," IREA Working Papers 202015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2020.
    9. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Joseph P. Byrne & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Global and Country-Specific Climate Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 655-682, March.
    11. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Tang, Guohao & Chen, Jian, 2025. "External trade policy uncertainty, corporate risk exposure, and stock market volatility," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Wu, Chao & Zhao, Ke & Liu, Jinquan & Zhao, Xiuyi, 2024. "Cross-country spillovers of trade uncertainty and their formation mechanisms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Suh, Hyunduk & Yang, Jin Young, 2021. "Global uncertainty and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty: Different implications for firm investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    15. Kollmann, Robert, 2015. "Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    17. Chow Sheung-Chi & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wong Wing-Keung, 2018. "Causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns in China and India: evidence from linear and nonlinear panel and time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Krzysztof Rybiński, 2023. "Anti-pandemic restrictions, uncertainty and sentiment in seven countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-27, February.
    19. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    20. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1713-1730, September.
    21. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Kollmann, Robert, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," CEPR Discussion Papers 11911, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Shen, Yifan, 2020. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A historical perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    24. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    25. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    26. Shambaugh, Jay C. & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Interest rates across the world: Global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    27. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    28. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    29. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    30. Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2020. "Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model," NBER Working Papers 27844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    32. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    33. Nina Biljanovska & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2017. "Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2017/240, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    35. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Spillover among financial, industrial and consumer uncertainties. The case of EU member states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    36. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    37. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    38. Helena Chuliá & Rangan Gupta & Jorge M. Uribe & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Impact of US Uncertainties on Emerging and Mature Markets: Evidence from a Quantile-Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Papers 201656, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    39. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    42. Bobasu, Alina & Geis, André & Quaglietti, Lucia & Ricci, Martino, 2021. "Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2541, European Central Bank.
    43. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    44. Marcelo Arbex & Michael Batu & Sidney Caetano, 2020. "Stay At Home! Macroeconomic Effects of Pandemic-Induced Job Separation Shocks," Working Papers 2002, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    45. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    46. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International Business Cycles and Risk Sharing with Uncertainty Shocks and Recursive Preferences," MPRA Paper 70183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2023. "Estimation of the variance function in structural break autoregressive models with non‐stationary and explosive segments," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 181-205, March.
    48. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "Risk Sharing, the Exchange Rate and Net Foreign Assets in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 721, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    49. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2018. "The role of economic uncertainty in forecasting exchange rate returns and realized volatility: Evidence from quantile predictive regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 705-719, November.
    50. Choi, Sangyup, 2017. "Variability in the effects of uncertainty shocks: New stylized facts from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-144.
    51. Huang, Zhuo & Tong, Chen & Qiu, Han & Shen, Yan, 2018. "The spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the U.S. and China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 123-127.
    52. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    53. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    54. Dave, Chetan & Dressler, Scott & Malik, Samreen, 2022. "A Cautionary Tale of Fat Tails," Working Papers 2022-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    55. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.
    56. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.
    57. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    58. Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2024. "UK Foreign Direct Investment in uncertain economic times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    59. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    60. Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Europe: Spillovers and Common Shocks," Working Papers IES 2024/34, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2024.
    61. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    62. Shen, Yifan & Shi, Xunpeng & Zeng, Ting, 2017. "Global Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Activity and Commodity Price," MPRA Paper 90089, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Nov 2018.
    63. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Qatar-Gulf Crisis and Risk Management in Oil and Gas Markets," Working Papers hal-02101633, HAL.
    64. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
    65. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    66. Andreas Dibiasi & Samad Sarferaz, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," Post-Print hal-04167343, HAL.
    67. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    68. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2025. "Liquidity constraints, real estate regulation, and local government debt risks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    69. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    70. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-León, Danilo, 2022. "Fluctuations in global output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    71. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    72. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    73. Magkonis, Georgios & Rudkin, Simon & Zhang, Shuonan, 2024. "Re-examining international spillovers: An Asian perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    74. Li, Li & Tang, Yao & Xiang, Jingjie, 2020. "Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    75. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    76. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    77. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    78. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    79. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    80. Hwang, So Jung & Suh, Hyunduk, 2021. "Overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    81. Wu, Ping, 2024. "Should I open to forecast? Implications from a multi-country unobserved components model with sparse factor stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 903-917.
    82. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    83. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty," IREA Working Papers 202011, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    84. Camacho, Maximo & Caro, Angela & Peña, Daniel, 2023. "What drives industrial energy prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

  21. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pinter, Gabor, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR models: fat tails and stochastic volatility," Bank of England working papers 528, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H. & Sun, Chuanwang, 2024. "Forecasting oil prices: Can large BVARs help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
    3. Ellington, Michael, 2022. "Fat tails, serial dependence, and implied volatility index connections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 768-779.
    4. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Cloyne, James & Martinez, Joseba & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas," CEPR Discussion Papers 17455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: an application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1234, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    10. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2024. "BVARs and stochastic volatility," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 3, pages 43-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Walid Mansour & Hechem Ajmi & Karima Saci, 2022. "Regulatory policies in the global Islamic banking sector in the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 265-287, September.
    13. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," Working Paper series 18-38, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    14. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    17. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    18. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    19. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2020. "High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗," Working Papers 20-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    22. Tamás Kiss & Pär Österholm, 2021. "Corona, crisis and conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 755-759, May.
    23. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021. "Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
    24. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    25. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2024. "Fast and order‐invariant inference in Bayesian VARs with nonparametric shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1301-1320, November.
    26. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1715, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    28. Mumtaz,Haroon & Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations : Evidence from Emerging and Developed Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10564, The World Bank.
    29. Christian Hotz-Behofsits & Florian Huber & Thomas O. Zorner, 2018. "Predicting crypto-currencies using sparse non-Gaussian state space models," Papers 1801.06373, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    30. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    31. Galdi, Giulio & Casarin, Roberto & Ferrari, Davide & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    32. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2020. "The effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    34. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "Research on China's financial systemic risk contagion under jump and heavy-tailed risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    35. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    36. Praveen Kumar Tripathi & Manika Agarwal, 2024. "A Bayes Analysis of Random Walk Model Under Different Error Assumptions," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 1635-1652, October.
    37. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    38. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2022. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 583-602, April.
    39. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    40. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2023. "Forecasting extreme financial risk: A score-driven approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 720-735.
    41. Joel Hinaunye Eita & Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo, 2022. "Quantifying Foreign Exchange Risk in the Selected Listed Sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange: An SV-EVT Pairwise Copula Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, April.
    42. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    43. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    44. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2021. "DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors," Working Papers 21-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    45. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    46. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    47. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    48. Liu, Xiaochun, 2019. "On tail fatness of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    49. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    50. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan, 2020. "Flexible Fat-tailed Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 2020:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    51. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Working Papers 2021:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
    52. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2019. "A Sieve-SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models," Papers 1902.01456, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    53. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    54. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    55. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    56. Markus Brunnermeier & Darius Palia & Karthik A. Sastry & Christopher A. Sims, 2021. "Feedbacks: Financial Markets and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1845-1879, June.
    57. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    58. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    59. Ishaya Tambari & Pierre Failler, 2020. "Determining If Oil Prices Significantly Affect Renewable Energy Investment in African Countries with Energy Security Concerns," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    60. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    61. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2024. "Taxes, Innovation and Productivity," Working Papers 979, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    62. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.

  22. Q. Farooq Akram & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "The role of oil prices and monetary policy in the Norwegian economy since the 1980s," Working Paper 2016/1, Norges Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Filardo, Andrew & Lombardi, Marco & Montoro, Carlos & Ferrari, Massimo, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers, global commodity prices and cooperation," Working Papers 2018-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

  23. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2014. "The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 10083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Paper 2023/9, Norges Bank.
    2. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    3. Beutler, Toni & Gubler, Matthias & Hauri, Simona & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Bank lending in Switzerland: Driven by business models and exposed to uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Dong Jin Lee & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2020. "Impulse response analysis in conditional quantile models with an application to monetary policy," Discussion Papers 2020/08, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Robert Wojciechowski, 2024. "A Structural Approach to Growth-at-Risk," Papers 2410.04431, arXiv.org.
    7. Li, Zehao, 2022. "Financial intermediary leverage and monetary policy transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Marian Vavra, 2023. "Bias-Correction in Time Series Quantile Regression Models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    9. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Wang, Lu & Luo, Gong-li & Sharif, Arshian & Dinca, Gheorghita, 2021. "Asymmetric dynamics and quantile dependency of the resource curse in the USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.

  24. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Silvia Delrio & Richard Kima, 2020. "Financial Uncertainty and Real Activity: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," CESifo Working Paper Series 8426, CESifo.
    2. Japan Huynh, 2025. "Banking uncertainty and corporate financial constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 626-651, January.
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and the great recession: Nonlinearities matter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    6. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
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    140. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    141. Maya Jalloul & Mirela Miescu, 2021. "Equity Market Connectedness across Regimes of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 324219805, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    142. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    143. Prüser, Jan & Schlösser, Alexander, 2018. "On the time-varying effects of economic policy uncertainty on the US economy," Ruhr Economic Papers 761, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    144. Nicholas Apergis & Emmanuel Apergis, 2025. "Uncertainty and inflation: The role of COVID-19 stabilisation policies-Evidence from OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-9, February.
    145. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    146. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    147. Helena Chuliá & Ignacio Garrón & Jorge M. Uribe, 2021. ""Vulnerable Funding in the Global Economy"," IREA Working Papers 202106, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2021.
    148. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2023. "How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 864-875.
    149. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    150. Morita, Hiroshi & Yuasa, Shiro, 2022. "Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks : State-dependency and Asymmetry," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP22-6, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    151. Smales, L.A., 2022. "Investor attention in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    152. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    153. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    154. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    155. Mario Canales & Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2021. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Price-Setting: Evidence from CPI Microdata," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 908, Central Bank of Chile.
    156. Angelini, Giovanni & Costantini, Mauro & Easaw, Joshy, 2018. "Uncertainty and spillover effects across the Euro area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    157. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    158. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa & Duman, Gazi Murat, 2024. "Nonlinear network connectedness: Assessing financial risk transmission in MENA and influence of external financial conditions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    159. Huang, Yisu & Ma, Feng & Bouri, Elie & Huang, Dengshi, 2023. "A comprehensive investigation on the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty from non-U.S. countries for U.S. stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    160. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Jin, Tao & Kwok, Simon & Wang, Xi & Zheng, Xin, 2023. "Entrepreneurial risk shocks and financial acceleration asymmetry in a two-country DSGE model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    161. Večeřová Klára, 2023. "Moderating effect of institutional environment on economic policy uncertainty: evidence from firms’ investments," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 159-180, June.
    162. Andrea Cipollini & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2021. "Financial distress and real economic activity in Lithuania: a Granger causality test based on mixed-frequency VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 855-881, August.
    163. Li, Li & Chen, Hongyi & Xiang, Jingjie, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty, financial distress and real economic activities: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    164. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    165. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    166. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    167. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Daniel Gründler & Johann Scharler, 2024. "Sequencing the COVID‐19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(1), pages 119-136, February.
    168. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty," IREA Working Papers 202011, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    169. Grimme, Christian & Henzel, Steffen, 2023. "Uncertainty Shocks in Times of Low and High Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277629, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    170. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    171. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2023. "Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    172. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    173. Aidi Tang, 2023. "Financial Integration and International Dynamics: The Role of Volatility Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    174. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2017. "Uncertainty Through the Lenses of A Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Panel Markov Switching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 12339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    175. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    176. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    177. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    178. Pintér, Gábor, 2023. "Inflation and uncertainty in New Keynesian models: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

  25. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "The Changing Transmission of Uncertainty shocks in the US: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 735, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks in India - Gli effetti macroeconomici degli shock di incertezza in India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 373-383.
    2. Netésunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2016. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-002, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.

  26. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2014. "Fat-tails in VAR Models," Working Papers 714, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time-varying parameter regression models with stochastic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 10-14.
    2. Petrella, Ivan & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails," Bank of England working papers 577, Bank of England.
    3. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    4. Michal Franta, 2015. "Rare Shocks vs. Non-linearities: What Drives Extreme Events in the Economy? Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2015/04, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

  27. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "What do VARs Tell Us about the Impact of a Credit Supply Shock? An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 716, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, September.
    2. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.

  28. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Labor Market Dynamics: a Time-varying Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 728, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Qureshi, Irfan A., 2021. "The Role Of Money In Federal Reserve Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2037-2057, December.
    2. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2020. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 20-16, Bank of Canada.
    3. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    4. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    5. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    6. Olli-Matti Juhani Laine, 2020. "The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2899-2924, December.
    7. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 32098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    10. Crawley, Andrew & Welch, Sarah & Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Improving estimates of job matching efficiency with different measures of unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    12. Moura, Guilherme V. & Noriller, Mateus R., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a TVP-VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 78-83.
    13. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
    16. Josh Beverly & Shamar L. Stewart & Clinton L. Neill, 2023. "The dynamics of labor force participation: Is all quiet on the Appalachian front?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2867-2898, December.
    17. Zens, Gregor & Böck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2020. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the US labor market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.

  29. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 977, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    2. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.

  30. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "The Effect of Labor and Financial Frictions on Aggregate Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 690, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Eleni Iliopulos & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2019. "Welfare Cost of Fluctuations When Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03970668, HAL.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2015. "Factor adjustment costs: A structural investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 341-355.
    3. Cristina Fuentes-Albero, 2014. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-84, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Yahong Zhang, 2011. "Financial Factors and Labour Market Fluctuations," Staff Working Papers 11-12, Bank of Canada.
    5. Yaprak Tavman, 2015. "A comparative analysis of macroprudential policies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 334-355.
    6. Finkelstein Shapiroy, Alan & Olivero, Maria, 2018. "Lending Relationships and Labor Market Dynamics," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    7. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2014. "The credibility of Hong Kong's currency board system: Looking through the prism of MS-VAR models with time-varying transition probabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Matteo Coronese & Isabelle Salle, 2018. "The "Rajan Hypothesis": a counter-factual experiment," LEM Papers Series 2018/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Nolan, Charles & Shafiei, Maryam, 2021. "Deep recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 310-323.
    10. Alexey Ponomarenko & Stas Tatarintsev, 2020. "Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps58, Bank of Russia.
    11. Clymo, Alex, 2020. "Discounts, rationing, and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Ichiro Muto & Nao Sudo & Shunichi Yoneyama, "undated". "Productivity Slowdown in Japan's Lost Decades: How Much of It Can Be Attributed to Damaged Balance Sheets?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    13. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    14. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2019. "Jobless recoveries: The interaction between financial and search frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082491, HAL.
    16. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01082491, HAL.
    17. Smets, Frank & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Slow recoveries: Any role for corporate leverage?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 54-85.
    18. Josep M. Raya & José García-Montalvo, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a Macroprudential Tool: A Precautionary Tale," Working Papers 1008, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Unemployment fluctuations in a small open-economy model with segmented labour markets: The case of Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 6-20.
    21. Gábor Pintér, 2019. "House Prices and Job Losses," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 991-1013.
    22. José Garcia Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a macroprudential tool: a precautionary tale," Economics Working Papers 1592, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    23. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili, 2019. "Wages and prices in the euro area: exploring the nexus," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 518, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    24. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Investment dynamics and forecast: Mind the frequency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    25. Tatiana Kirsanova & Charles Nolan & Maryam Shafiei Deh Abad, 2016. "Deep Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Working Papers 2016_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    26. Matsue, Toyoki, 2022. "Role of worker flows in the relationship between job offers and employment," MPRA Paper 115316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Arno Hantzsche & Simon Savsek & Sebastian Weber, 2018. "Labour Market Adjustments to Financing Conditions under Sectoral Rigidities in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 769-794, September.

  31. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo.
    2. Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Historical Volatility of Advanced Equity Markets: The Role of Local and Global Crises," Working Papers 201931, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    4. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Working Paper Series 2513, European Central Bank.
    5. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
    6. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    7. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Eduardo Schirmer Finn, 2022. "Can credibility offset electricity price effect on business confidence? An empirical investigation from a large emerging economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 1229-1242, March.
    10. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    11. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    12. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Bin Wang & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood, 2024. "R&D Spending and Economic Policy Uncertainty in Asian Countries: an Advanced Panel Data Estimation Study," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 4710-4729, March.
    14. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    15. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers 753, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Chow Sheung-Chi & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wong Wing-Keung, 2018. "Causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns in China and India: evidence from linear and nonlinear panel and time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Less bang for the buck? Assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 358, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    21. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    22. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2021. "Data Revisions and the Effects of Monetary Policy Volatility," MPRA Paper 107581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    24. Cui Jinxin & Zou Huiwen, 2020. "Connectedness Among Economic Policy Uncertainties: Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domain Perspectives," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(5), pages 401-433, October.
    25. Popiel Michal Ksawery, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and US output," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    26. Yujia, Li & Zixiang, Zhu & Ming, Che, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous responses?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    27. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    28. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2017. "The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1052-1064.
    29. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    30. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7697, CESifo.
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    7. Angelini, Giovanni & Fanelli, Luca, 2018. "Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," MPRA Paper 93864, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2019.
    8. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    20. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2015. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in OECD Countries: How Important is the Extent of Policy Uncertainty?," Working Papers 201587, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    50. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2015. "Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1528, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    51. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    52. Hauzenberger, Niko & Böck, Maximilian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna & Zens, Gregor, 2018. "Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area," ESRB Working Paper Series 80, European Systemic Risk Board.
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    85. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
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  33. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US Output and inflation," Joint Research Papers 4, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2018. "Labor market and financial shocks: a time varying analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1179, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
    3. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Jordà , Òscar & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 18166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    5. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    6. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    9. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    11. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    12. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    13. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    14. Hamza Bennani & Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model," Working Paper Series 2020-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    15. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    16. Graziano Moramarco, 2025. "Regime‐Switching Density Forecasts Using Economists' Scenarios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 833-845, March.
    17. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2017. "How to predict financial stress? An assessment of Markov switching models," Working Paper Series 2057, European Central Bank.
    18. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    20. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula, 2018. "A Profit-to-Provisioning Approach to Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Czech Example," Working Papers 2018/5, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    21. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    22. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    23. Gokan Toshitaka & Kichiko, Sergey & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2018. "How do trade and communication costs shape the spatial organization of firms?," IDE Discussion Papers 706, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    24. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    25. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
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    27. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness and the Business Cycle - Through the MIDAS Lens," CAMA Working Papers 2022-69, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    28. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus & Tuomas Peltonen, 2016. "Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries," Staff Working Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    29. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    30. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
    31. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2025. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, January.
    32. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    33. Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    34. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    35. Baek, Ingul & Liu, Jia & Noh, Sanha, 2024. "Real estate uncertainty and financial conditions over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 656-675.
    36. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino & Laust L. Særkjær, 2025. "The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier," CESifo Working Paper Series 11853, CESifo.
    37. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    38. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    39. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Fusun Celebi Boz & Melike Torun, 2024. "Do Economic and Financial Stabilities Matter for Political Stability in Estonia?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15202-15217, September.
    40. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    41. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    42. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    43. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2022. "Nonlinear transmission of financial shocks: Some new evidence," Working Paper 2022/3, Norges Bank.
    44. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    45. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    46. Alahverdi, Atefe & Daei-Karimzadeh, Saeed & Ghobadi, Sara, 2023. "Forecasting the Trend of Macroeconomic Variables in Terms of Financial Conditions Index in Iran: TVP-FAVAR Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(3), pages 161-185, December.
    47. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    48. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    49. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
    51. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    52. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, Doguhan Sundal, 2020. "Business cycles, financial conditions and nonlinearities," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    53. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    54. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    55. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
    56. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    57. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    58. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    59. Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    60. Moritz A. Roth, 2018. "International co-movements in recessions," Working Papers 1804, Banco de España.
    61. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Leonardo Del Vecchio & Arianna Miglietta, 2019. "Financial Conditions and 'Growth at Risk' in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    62. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    63. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé & Thompson, Kirsten & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2018. "Comparing the forecasting ability of financial conditions indices: The case of South Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 245-259.
    64. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    65. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    67. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    68. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    69. Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez & Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, 2021. "Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1165, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    70. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    71. Capasso Salvatore & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Vivero, 2023. "The Financial Conditions Index as an additional tool for policymakers in developing countries: the Mexican case," CSEF Working Papers 664, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    72. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    73. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    74. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    75. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    76. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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  34. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2020. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve. Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," WIFO Working Papers 606, WIFO.
    3. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

  35. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Factor adjustment costs: a structural investigation," Bank of England working papers 467, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Karp, Larry & Rezai, Armon, 2017. "Asset prices and climate policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6fx579fp, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    3. Amundsen, Alexander, 2023. "Interaction effects in the adjustment cost function of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "Flexible prices, labor market frictions, and the response of employment to technology shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Le Xu & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Adoption and Termination of Suppliers over the Business Cycle," Discussion Papers 2416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Masashige Hamano, 2013. "On business cycles of variety and quality," DEM Discussion Paper Series 13-21, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    7. Juan Carlos Parra‐Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2023. "Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Likelihood Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 304-330, April.
    8. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Nadine Yamout & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Dutch Disease, Unemployment and Structural Change," Working Papers 262, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Ako Viou Bahun-Wilson, 2022. "On the Role of Product Quality in Product Reallocation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 22-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    10. Tang, Le, 2022. "The dynamic demand for capital and labor: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "On Quality and Variety Bias in Aggregate Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1343-1363, September.
    12. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Leonardo Melosi & Eran Yashiv & Renato Faccini, 2016. "Hiring and Investment Frictions as Inflation Determinants," 2016 Meeting Papers 1606, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Eran Yashiv & Renato Faccini, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Marginal Costs: the Crucial Role of Hiring and Investment Frictions," 2014 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Hirokazu Mizobata & Hiroki Toyoda, 2016. "Business Cycles, Asset Prices, and the Frictions of Capital and Labor," KIER Working Papers 953, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Epstein, Brendan & Mukherjee, Rahul & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Ramnath, Shanthi, 2020. "Trends in aggregate employment, hours worked per worker, and the long-run labor wedge," MPRA Paper 99289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2016. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Discussion Papers 05/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2020. "The Minimum Wage Puzzle in Less Developed Countries: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2020/023, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Investment dynamics and forecast: Mind the frequency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

  36. Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    3. Butt, Nick & Churm, Rohan & McMahon, Michael & Morotz, Arpad & Schanz, Jochen, 2015. "QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 244, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Inequality in the UK. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 783, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    6. Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka, 2018. "Growing pension deficits and the expenditure decisions of UK companies," Discussion Papers 2018/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    7. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    8. G.M. Gallo & D. Lacava & E. Otranto, 2020. "On Classifying the Effects of Policy Announcements on Volatility," Working Paper CRENoS 202008, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    10. Phil Molyneux & Rue Xie & John Thornton & Alessio Reghezza, 2017. "Did Negative Interest Rates Impact Bank Lending?," Working Papers 17002, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    11. Deng, Kaihua & Todd, Walker, 2016. "Is the US quantitative easing more effective than China's? A second thought," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-23.
    12. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Demetrio Lacava & Luca Scaffidi Domianello, 2021. "The Incidence of Spillover Effects during the Unconventional Monetary Policies Era," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, September.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," CESifo Working Paper Series 3879, CESifo.
    16. Markus Heckel & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2022. "Unconventional Monetary Policy through Open Market Operations: A Principal Component Analysis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-28, Winter/Sp.
    17. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Fructuoso Borrallo & Ignacio Hernando & Javier Vallés, 2016. "The effects of us unconventional monetary policies in Latin America," Working Papers 1606, Banco de España.
    19. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2013. "Is the UK triple-A?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: Worth a try?," Post-Print hal-03568216, HAL.
    21. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2019. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-74.
    23. Brian Fabo & Martina Jancokova & Elisabeth Kempf & Lubos Pastor, 2023. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
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    162. CĂLIN, Adrian Cantemir, 2015. "The Effects Of The Federal Reserve’S Tapering Announcements On The Us Real Estate Market," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(3), pages 79-90.
    163. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St‐Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    164. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Quantitative Easing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Country Study," KAE Working Papers 2023-088, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    165. Cohen, Lior, 2023. "The effects of the BoJ's ETF purchases on equities and corporate investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    166. Lewis, Vivien & Roth, Markus, 2017. "The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs," Discussion Papers 23/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    167. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    168. Joyce, Michael & Tong, Matthew & Woods, Robert, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
    169. Eleni Zafeiriou & Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos & Constantinos Tsanaktsidis & Stavros Garefalakis & Konstantinos Panitsidis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Garyfallos Arabatzis, 2022. "Energy and Mineral Resources Exploitation in the Delignitization Era: The Case of Greek Peripheries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    170. Stefan Behrendt, 2013. "Monetary Transmission via the Central Bank Balance Sheet," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 49-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    171. Phil Molyneux & Alessio Reghezza & John Thornton & Ru Xie, 2020. "Did Negative Interest Rates Improve Bank Lending?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 51-68, February.
    172. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2016. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England's Asset Purchase Program," Research Papers in Economics 2016-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    173. Tyler K. Jensen & Robert R. Johnson & Michael J. McNamara, 2019. "Funding conditions and insurance stock returns: Do insurance stocks really benefit from rising interest rate regimes?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 367-391, December.
    174. Cong Gu & Benfu Lv & Ying Liu & Geng Peng, 2021. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Cryptocurrency," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 27-34.
    175. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    176. Steve Talbot, 2016. "Creating a smart rural economy through smart specialisation: The microsphere model," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 31(8), pages 892-919, December.
    177. Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Emanuel List, 2015. "Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik," IMK Report 107-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    178. Tomasz Wieladek & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2016. "The European Central Bank's QE: A New Hope," CESifo Working Paper Series 5946, CESifo.
    179. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wang, Ziqing, 2023. "UK monetary and fiscal policy since the Great Recession- an evaluation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    180. Schüder, Stefan, 2014. "Expansive monetary policy in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 239-252.
    181. Tiago Araújo & Óscar Afonso & Pedro Cunha Neves & Elena Sochirca, 2025. "International spillovers of unconventional monetary policy: A meta-analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 24(2), pages 205-224, May.
    182. Wieladek, Tomasz & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2016. "The European Central Bank’s QE: A new hope," CEPR Discussion Papers 11309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    183. Taoufik Bouraoui, 2015. "The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(15), pages 1562-1573, March.
    184. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers in Economics 37365, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    185. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    186. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England, revised 31 Aug 2022.
    187. Jorge Alberto Fornero & Roque Esteban Montero & Andrés J. Yany, 2017. "Reassessing the Effects of Foreign Monetary Policy on Output: New Evidence from Structural and Agnostic Identification Procedures," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), International Spillovers of Monetary Policy, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 31-72, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    188. Steeley, James M., 2015. "The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 303-336.
    189. LUPU, Radu & CALIN, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "Co-Movements Of Regime Shifts In Gbp Currency Pairs Around Boe Quantitative Easing Announcements," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(3), pages 89-101.

  37. Christiane Baumeister & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Changes in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Staff Working Papers 12-13, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Mandel, Antoine & Taghawi-Nejad, Davoud & Veetil, Vipin P., 2019. "The price effects of monetary shocks in a network economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 300-316.
    3. Velasco, Sofia, 2024. "Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR," Working Paper Series 2983, European Central Bank.
    4. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    6. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    7. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-128.
    8. Gregory E. Givens & Robert R. Reed, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Investment Dynamics: Evidence from Disaggregate Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1851-1878, December.
    9. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach," Working Papers 16.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    10. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    11. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    12. S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    14. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    15. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    16. Zeno Enders, 2020. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Segmented Asset Markets and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 1031-1056.
    17. Asharani Samal & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilise Food Inflation in India? Evidence From Quantile Regression Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 361-372, September.
    18. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    19. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.
    20. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    21. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    22. Reed, Robert R. & Ume, Ejindu S., 2019. "Housing, liquidity risk, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-162.
    23. Allayioti, Anastasia & Gόrnicka, Lucyna & Holton, Sarah & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price data," Working Paper Series 3003, European Central Bank.
    24. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    25. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    26. Ying Lun Cheung, 2024. "Identification of Time-Varying Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 76-94, January.
    27. Nuwat Nookhwun & Pym Manopimoke, 2023. "Disaggregated Inflation Dynamics in Thailand: Which Shocks Matter?," PIER Discussion Papers 211, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    28. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    29. Vipin P. Veetil & Lawrence H. White, 2017. "Towards a New Austrian Macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 19-38, March.
    30. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 377-381, May.
    31. Phan, Tuan, 2016. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Aggressive, But Less Effective Over Time?," MPRA Paper 107200, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  38. Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    2. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan supply shocks in Macedonia: a Bayesian SVAR approach with sign restrictions," Working Papers 2016-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.
    5. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.

  39. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Yoosoon Chang & Ana Maria Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-002 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    3. Gabriela Nodari, 2013. "Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty and Credit Spreads in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0170, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
    5. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Working Paper Series 2513, European Central Bank.
    6. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    7. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Chris Redl, 2019. "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    10. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    11. Ameet Kumar & Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro & Rakesh Kumar & Niaz Hussain Ghumro & Sarfraz Ahmed Dakhan & Vikesh Kumar, 2020. "Decomposing the Effect of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on Real and Financial Sectors: Evidence from BRIC Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-23, December.
    12. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    13. Giovanni Marin & Marco Modica, 2021. "Local demand shocks and firms' survival: An application to the Italian economy during the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 745-775, June.
    14. Stefan Klößner & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2014. "International Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 14-57, Bank of Canada.
    15. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    16. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    17. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers 753, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Cho, Daeha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks, precautionary pricing, and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Joonseok Oh & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2025. "Macro Uncertainty, Unemployment Risk, And Consumption Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 287-312, February.
    22. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    23. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    24. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    25. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 135-155, May.
    26. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    27. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    28. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    29. Joonseok Oh, 2020. "The Propagation Of Uncertainty Shocks: Rotemberg Versus Calvo," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1097-1113, August.
    30. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 863, Bank of England.
    31. Dison, Will & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Do macro shocks matter for equities?," Bank of England working papers 692, Bank of England.
    32. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, 2022. "Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial realms overlap," Working Papers wp1174, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    33. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," BCAM Working Papers 1404, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    34. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    35. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    36. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(22), pages 2392-2407, May.
    37. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2015. "The Role of Financial Depth on The Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," EcoMod2015 8285, EcoMod.
    38. Nina Biljanovska & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2017. "Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2017/240, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Macro Uncertainty and Unemployment Risk," Working Paper Series 395, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    40. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    41. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    42. Ken Miyajima, 2020. "Exchange rate volatility and pass‐through to inflation in South Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 404-418, September.
    43. Md Rafayet Alam, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for Canada?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2725-2732.
    44. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack, 2017. "Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    45. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Financial and nonfinancial global stock market volatility shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 128-134.
    46. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    47. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    48. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    49. Dario Bonciani & Andrea Tafuro, 2018. "The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Daily Prices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 89-104, April.
    50. Caglayan, Mustafa & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2016. "Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 75250, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2016.
    51. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    52. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2017. "Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks: Learning from Heterogeneous Responses on a Panel of EU Countries," Working Papers 2017/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    53. Valentina Colombo, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0160, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    54. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    55. Ma, Dan & Zhang, Chuan & Hui, Yarong & Xu, Bing, 2022. "Economic uncertainty spillover and social networks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 454-467.
    56. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
    57. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    58. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    59. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    60. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    61. Sanha Noh, 2020. "Posterior Inference on Parameters in a Nonlinear DSGE Model via Gaussian-Based Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 795-841, December.
    62. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2020. "Revising the Impact of Financial and Non-Financial Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks," MPRA Paper 103019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    64. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    65. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhou, Jinlan & Du, Xiaodong, 2022. "Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    66. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    67. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    68. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    69. Meng Yan & Kai Shi, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from China’s Investment Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 457-495, July.
    70. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    71. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    72. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    73. Yuting Gong & Zhongzhi He & Wenjun Xue, 2023. "EPU spillovers and sovereign CDS spreads: A cross‐country study," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1770-1806, December.
    74. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    75. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    76. Morita, Hiroshi & Yuasa, Shiro, 2022. "Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks : State-dependency and Asymmetry," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP22-6, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    77. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    78. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    79. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    80. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    81. Angelini, Giovanni & Costantini, Mauro & Easaw, Joshy, 2018. "Uncertainty and spillover effects across the Euro area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    82. OH, Joonseok, 2019. "The propagation of uncertainty shocks : Rotemberg vs. Calvo," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/01, European University Institute.
    83. Fontaine, Idriss & Razafindravaosolonirina, Justinien & Didier, Laurent, 2018. "Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-19.
    84. Liyan Han & Mengchao Qi & Libo Yin, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4907-4921, November.
    85. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    86. Aidi Tang, 2023. "Financial Integration and International Dynamics: The Role of Volatility Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    87. Angelini Giovanni & Costantini Mauro & Easaw Joshy, 2024. "Estimating uncertainty spillover effects across euro area using a regime dependent VAR model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 39-59, February.
    88. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  40. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Bogdan DIMA & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Flavia BARNA, 2019. "Inflation Contagion Effects in the Baltic Countries: A Time-varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 72-87, March.
    2. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2019. "Time-varying cointegration and the UK great ratios," Bank of England working papers 789, Bank of England.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    5. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    6. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Forecast evaluation of DSGE models: Linear and nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1130, September.
    7. Kelly Burns, 2016. "A Reconsideration of the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle: An Alternative Approach to Model Estimation and Forecast Evaluation," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 20(1), pages 41-83, March.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
    9. Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2019. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.08, Bank of Israel.
    10. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    11. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-128.
    12. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "UK macroeconomic volatility: Historical evidence over seven centuries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 767-789.
    13. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    14. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "An Assessment of UK Macroeconomic Volatility: Historical Evidence Using Over Seven Centuries of Data," Working Papers 201779, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816, November.
    16. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Serdar Neslihanoglu & Stelios Bekiros & John McColl & Duncan Lee, 2021. "Multivariate time-varying parameter modelling for stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 947-972, August.
    18. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    19. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Time-Varying Causality between Research Output and Economic Growth in the US," Working Papers 201350, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Sun, Yanpeng & Mirza, Nawazish & Qadeer, Abdul & Hsueh, Hsin-Pei, 2021. "Connectedness between oil and agricultural commodity prices during tranquil and volatile period. Is crude oil a victim indeed?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    21. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Jouchi Nakajima, 2019. "Steady-state growth," BIS Working Papers 812, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    23. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
    24. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    25. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    26. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    27. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    28. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    29. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    30. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "International stock return predictability: Is the role of U.S. time-varying?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 121-146, February.
    31. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    32. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    33. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    34. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Philips Curve," Working Papers 2018:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    35. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    36. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    37. Ozcelik, Oguzhan, 2022. "Effects of Uncertainties on Mode of Payment Terms in Foreign Trade between Turkey and the US: The Time-Varying Bootstrap Causality Test (Türkiye-ABD Dış Ticaretinde Ödeme Şekli Tercihlerine Belirsizli," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, April.
    38. Mehmet Akif, Destek & Muhammad, Shahbaz & Ilyas, Okumus & Shawkat, Hammoudeh & Avik, Sinha, 2020. "The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in G-7 countries: evidence from time-varying parameters with a long history," MPRA Paper 100514, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2020.
    39. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    40. Schlösser, Alexander, 2020. "Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 838, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    41. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    42. Bergmeir, Christoph & Costantini, Mauro & Benítez, José M., 2014. "On the usefulness of cross-validation for directional forecast evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 132-143.
    43. Yilanci, Veli & Kilci, Esra N., 2021. "The role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in predicting prices of precious metals: Evidence from a time-varying bootstrap causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    44. Rafael Ravnik, 2014. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes," Working Papers 40, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    45. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    46. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    47. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    48. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    49. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.
    50. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    51. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2017. "Prévisions de l’inflation et de la croissance en zone CEMAC [Inflation and real growth forecasts in CEMAC zone]," MPRA Paper 116433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Kyle E. Binder & James W. Mjelde, 2018. "Projecting impacts of carbon dioxide emission reductions in the US electric power sector: evidence from a data-rich approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 143-155, November.

  41. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    3. Emmanuel O. Akande & Jeremiah D. Dandaura & Elijah Akanni, 2024. "Monetary policy instruments and inflation in Nigeria: a revisit of FAVAR," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-36, February.
    4. Anthoulla Phella, 2020. "Forecasting With Factor-Augmented Quantile Autoregressions: A Model Averaging Approach," Papers 2010.12263, arXiv.org.
    5. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2016. "Monetary policy transmission in an open economy:new data and evidence from the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86235, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1007, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    9. Cloyne, James & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: a new measure for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 493, Bank of England.
    10. Forbes, Kristin & Kirkham, Lewis & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "A trendy approach to UK inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 49, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    11. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    12. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    13. Victor Pontines, 2020. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: Empirical evidence from Korea," CAMA Working Papers 2020-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Karin Klieber, 2023. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Papers 2309.04821, arXiv.org.
    16. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    17. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Working Papers No 5/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 225-236.
    19. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    20. Borzykh, Olga, 2016. "Bank lending channel in Russia: A TVP-FAVAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 96-117.
    21. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    22. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    23. Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver & Taylor, Alan M., 2016. "Monetary versus macroprudential policies:causal impacts of interest rates andcredit controls in the era of the UKradcliffe report," Economic History Working Papers 67035, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    24. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    25. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles," Working Papers No 4/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    26. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    27. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    28. Evans, Jocelyn D. & Robertson, Mari L., 2018. "The effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 164-168.
    29. Anastasios Evgenidis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2015. "What are the International Channels Through Which a US Policy Shock is Transmitted to The World Economies? Evidence from a Time Varying FAVAR," Working Papers 190, Bank of Greece.
    30. Colin Ellis, 2020. "Have Macron’s Recent Labour Reforms Been as Impactful as Past German Reforms?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 89-100, July.
    31. Juan S. Holguín & Jorge M. Uribe, 2020. "The credit supply channel of monetary policy: evidence from a FAVAR model with sign restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2443-2472, November.
    32. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    33. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.
    34. Jan Prüser & Alexander Schlösser, 2020. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on European economies: evidence from a TVP-FAVAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2889-2910, June.
    35. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    36. Francesco Zanetti & Christoph Görtz & Wei Li & John Tsoukalas, 2020. "Vintage Article: The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks in the United Kingdom: an External Instruments Approach," Economics Series Working Papers 812, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Kapetanios, George & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Petrova, Katerina & Waldron, Matthew, 2019. "A time-varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    38. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    39. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    40. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    41. Taylor, Alan M. & Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver, 2016. "Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe R," CEPR Discussion Papers 11353, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    43. Klieber, Karin, 2024. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    44. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    45. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    46. Anastasios Evgenidis & Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1549-1579, May.
    47. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    48. Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver & Davis, Alan, 2016. "Monetary versus macroprudential policies causal impacts of interest rates and credit controls in the era of the UK Radcliffe Report," Bank of England working papers 610, Bank of England.
    49. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    50. Czudaj, Robert L., 2019. "Dynamics between trading volume, volatility and open interest in agricultural futures markets: A Bayesian time-varying coefficient approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 78-145.

  42. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Tawakol A. Fadol, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of the Macroeconomic Indicators Shocks on KSA Non-oil Exports 1970-2019: (SVAR) Analysis and (NARDL) Assessment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 118-128.
    2. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    3. Millard, Stephen & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Oil shocks and the UK economy: the changing nature of shocks and impact over time," Bank of England working papers 476, Bank of England.

  43. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    6. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    7. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
    8. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Muhammad Khan, 2013. "Inflation and Sectoral Output Growth Variability in Bulgaria," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 687-704, December.
    10. Yoshiyuki Fukuda & Yuki Kimura & Nao Sudo & Hiroshi Ugai, 2013. "Cross-country Transmission Effect of the U.S. Monetary Shock under Global Integration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    11. Eickmeier Sandra, 2010. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
    12. Hacioglu, Sinem & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2016. "Interpreting the latent dynamic factors by threshold FAVAR model," Bank of England working papers 622, Bank of England.
    13. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsø, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 15242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. MARGARITA Ilinca Andrada & CAZACU Mihai, 2024. "Regional And Local Macroeconomic Policies From The Perspective Of The Development Of Emerging States," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 76(2), pages 22-28, June.
    15. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.
    16. Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk & Hillebrand, Eric & Urga, Giovanni, 2019. "Consistent estimation of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 535-562.
    17. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    19. MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
    20. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    21. Moses K. Tule & Taiwo Ajilore & Augustine Ujunwa, 2019. "Monetary Policy Contagion in the West African Monetary Zone," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 375-398, November.
    22. Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Eric Hillebrand & Giovanni Urga, 2015. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying Loadings in High-Dimensional Factor Models," CREATES Research Papers 2015-61, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    23. Andrew Binning, 2013. "Underidentified SVAR models: A framework for combining short and long-run restrictions with sign-restrictions," Working Paper 2013/14, Norges Bank.

  44. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2011. "Estimating the Aggregate Consumption Euler Equation with State-Dependent Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 8233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1237-1260, November.

  45. Barnett, Alina & Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    4. Eliana González & Munir Jalil & José Vicente Romero, 2010. "Inflación y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 618, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Domit, Sílvia & Jackson, Chris & Roberts-Sklar , Matt, 2015. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to inflation?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(55), pages 165-180.
    7. Maule, Becky & Pugh, Alice, 2012. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to the economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(1), pages 110-121.
    8. Harimohan, Rashmi, 2012. "How has the risk to inflation from inflation expectations evolved?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 114-123.
    9. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.

  46. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Özer Karagedikli & Ryan, Michael & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    5. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2013. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Role of Supply Shocks Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79821, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
    11. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    12. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    13. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1012-1035, December.
    14. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    15. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    16. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eva Ortega & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2019. "Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area," Working Papers 1934, Banco de España.
    17. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
    18. Karagedikli, Özer & Ryan, Michael & Steenkamp, Daan & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2016. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks on the New Zealand economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 945-959.
    19. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Wróblewska, Justyna, 2019. "Insulating property of the flexible exchange rate regime: A case of Central and Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 93813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Abbate, Angela & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models," Discussion Papers 19/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Akbar, Muhammad & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2021. "Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 574-600.
    23. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    24. Rozina Shaheen, 2019. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Labor Supply under a Time-Varying Structural VAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, June.
    25. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.
    26. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2019. "Is there any theory that explains the SEK?," MPRA Paper 95072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2019.
    28. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    29. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    30. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2018. "Time-Frequency Response Analysis of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers IES 2018/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2018.
    31. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 781-807, December.
    32. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    33. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    34. Michael Debabrata Patra & Joice John, 2018. "Non-Linear, Asymmetric and TimeVarying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India," Working Papers id:12700, eSocialSciences.
    35. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    36. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
    37. Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku & Ilir Vika, 2023. "Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1297-1326, April.
    38. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.

  47. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from a time-varying factor-augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 401, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    3. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.
    4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
    5. Garreth Rule, 2012. "Collateral management in central bank policy operations," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 31, April.
    6. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hacioglu, Sinem & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2016. "Interpreting the latent dynamic factors by threshold FAVAR model," Bank of England working papers 622, Bank of England.
    9. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2013. "The Growth and Stabilization Properties of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia," IMF Working Papers 2013/149, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    11. Garreth Rule, 2011. "Issuing central bank securities," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 30, April.
    12. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    13. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    14. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipińska, 2014. "Practical Tools For Policy Analysis In Dsge Models With Missing Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1145-1163, November.
    15. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Rafiq Sohrab, 2012. "Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Japan Effective?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, August.
    18. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    19. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    20. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    21. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipinska, 2012. "Practical tools for policy analysis in DSGE models with missing channels," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  48. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving UK macroeconomic dynamics: a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 386, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Velasco, Sofia, 2024. "Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR," Working Paper Series 2983, European Central Bank.
    3. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    5. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    6. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    7. Jalali-Naini , Ahmad. R. & Hemati , Maryam, 2012. "The Effect of Monetary Shocks on Disaggregated Prices in a Data Rich Environment: a Bayesian FAVAR Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 27-60, July.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.
    9. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Tavakolian , Hossein & Babaee , Majid & Shakeri , Abbas, 2018. "How Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Indicators Affect Inflation in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 267-289, July.
    11. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.

  49. Karagedikli, Özer & Mumtaz, Haroon & Tanaka, Misa, 2010. "All together now: do international factors explain relative price comovements?," Bank of England working papers 381, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ha, Jongrim & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2021. "One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Parker, Miles, 2018. "How global is “global inflation”?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-197.
    3. Francois de Soyres & Sebastian Franco, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," World Bank Publications - Reports 33059, The World Bank Group.
    4. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2019. "Global Inflation Synchronization," CAMA Working Papers 2019-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. John McDermott, 2010. "Discussion of What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Michael Callaghan & Enzo Cassino & Tugrul Vehbi & Benjamin Wong, 2019. "Opening the toolbox: how does the Reserve Bank analyse the world?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-14, April.

  50. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 397, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Bilgili, Faik, 2012. "Linear and nonlinear TAR panel unit root analyses for solid biomass energy supply of European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6775-6781.
    2. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    3. Garreth Rule, 2012. "Collateral management in central bank policy operations," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 31, April.
    4. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
    5. Garreth Rule, 2011. "Issuing central bank securities," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 30, April.
    6. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    8. Andrej Drygalla, 2015. "Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters," FIW Working Paper series 139, FIW.

  51. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 363, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    3. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    5. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    6. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
    7. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    8. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    10. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.
    11. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    12. Dorota Toczydlowska & Gareth W. Peters, 2018. "Financial Big Data Solutions for State Space Panel Regression in Interest Rate Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-45, July.

  52. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "One TV, One Price?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Rui & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tran, Vu, 2023. "Information flows and the law of one price," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Cagé, Julia & Rouzet, Dorothée, 2015. "Improving “national brands”: Reputation for quality and export promotion strategies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 274-290.
    3. Nemet, Gregory F. & O’Shaughnessy, Eric & Wiser, Ryan & Darghouth, Naïm & Barbose, Galen & Gillingham, Ken & Rai, Varun, 2017. "Characteristics of low-priced solar PV systems in the U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 501-513.
    4. Rühl, Christian, 2016. "Size and welfare costs of price differences across European countries," CFS Working Paper Series 535, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Talavera, Oleksandr & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2015. "Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integration," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112885, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Gobillon, Laurent & Wolff, François-Charles & Guillotreau, Patrice, 2013. "Evaluating the law of one price using micro panel data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Herz, Benedikt & Mejer, Malwina, 2020. "The effect of design protection on price and price dispersion: Evidence from automotive spare parts," MPRA Paper 104137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2020.
    8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2014. "The Penn effect within a country: evidence from Japan," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 1070-1089.
    9. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2016. "Understanding Post‐Euro Law‐of‐One‐Price Deviations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1073-1111, September.
    10. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2020. "How different are Monetary Unions to national economies according to prices?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2020, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    11. Rühl, Christian, 2016. "Size and welfare costs of price differences across European countries," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145701, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Miguel González-Maestre & Francisco Martínez-Sánchez, 2015. "Quality choice and advertising regulation in broadcasting markets," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 107-126, March.
    13. Beck, Guenter W. & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2020. "Price gaps at the border: Evidence from multi-country household scanner data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2014. "Law-of-One-Price Deviations Before and After the Euro: The case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(2), pages 61-85, December.
    15. Baxter, Marianne & Landry, Anthony, 2017. "IKEA: Product, pricing, and pass-through," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 507-520.
    16. Martin Falk, 2011. "International Price Differences in Ski Lift Tickets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 303-336, September.
    17. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 40-59.
    18. Dmitry Kulikov, 2015. "Law of One Price in the euro area: an empirical investigation using Nielsen disaggregated price data," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jan 2015.
    19. Cerasa, Andrea & Buscaglia, Daniela, 2019. "A hedonic model of import steel prices: Is the EU market integrated?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-249.
    20. Fischer, Christoph, 2009. "Price convergence in the EMU? Evidence from micro data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Greiner, Tanja & Sahm, Marco, 2018. "How effective are advertising bans? On the demand for quality in two-sided media markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-60.
    22. Zhang, Qi, 2017. "The Balassa–Samuelson relationship: Services, manufacturing and product quality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 55-82.
    23. Romero, Jaime & Cruz-Roche, Ignacio & Charron, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "The myth of price convergence under economic integration: A proposed explanation for the difference in food prices across European countries," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 267-276.
    24. Beck, Günter W. & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2016. "Prices and consumer purchasing preferences at the border: Evidence from a multi-country household scanner data set," CFS Working Paper Series 536, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    25. Herz, Benedikt & Mejer, Malwina, 2021. "The effect of design protection on price and price dispersion: Evidence from automotive spare parts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    26. Marina Glushenkova & Marios Zachariadis, 2020. "Understanding post-Crisis price deviations in Europe: Disintegration or mere adjustment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1797-1814, April.

  53. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2009. "What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices?," Bank of England working papers 364, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Sigal Ribon, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Inflation: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach using disaggregated data," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2011.12, Bank of Israel.
    2. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper, 2011. "Parameter Identification in a Estimated New Keynesian Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 251, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Zhu, Tingting & Rafiq, M.S., 2013. "Are Prices Sticky in Large Developing Economies? An Empirical Comparison of China and India," MPRA Paper 60985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Imran Hussain Shaha & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Seeking price and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area: The role of house prices and stock prices," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1707, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    5. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    6. Ellis, Colin, 2009. "Do supermarket prices change from week to week?," Bank of England working papers 378, Bank of England.
    7. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "How do Individual UK Producer Prices Behave?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 16-34, February.
    8. Huw Dixon & Jeremy Franklin & Stephen Millard, 2023. "Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 805-829, August.
    9. Jalali-Naini , Ahmad. R. & Hemati , Maryam, 2012. "The Effect of Monetary Shocks on Disaggregated Prices in a Data Rich Environment: a Bayesian FAVAR Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 27-60, July.
    10. Kaufmann, Daniel & Lein, Sarah M., 2013. "Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 384-394.
    11. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "Examining The Behaviour Of Individual UK Consumer Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 35-55, February.

  54. Mumtaz, Haroon & Simonelli, Saverio & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective," Discussion Papers 28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?," Working Papers No 8/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    4. Kyriakos Drivas & Claire Economidou & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2022. "Technological Leaders, Laggards and Spillovers: A Network GVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-269, April.
    5. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    6. Dai, Yixin & Yu, Cong & Xu, Xiangyun & Zhou, Jindie & Teng, Fengfan, 2024. "The macro driving factors of co-movement of RMB with other currencies in FX markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    7. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    8. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2021. "Testing for international business cycles: A multilevel factor model with stochastic factor selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Berger, Tino & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "Global vs. group-specific business cycles: The importance of defining the groups," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 334, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Adesina, Oluwaseun A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2024. "Model-free and Model-based connectedness in highly, medium and lowly correlated financial returns: analyses of OECD inflations," MPRA Paper 123108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    12. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2015. "Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 403-421, September.
    13. Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2011. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2011/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    14. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pacce, Matías, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Paper Series 2484, European Central Bank.
    15. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4085, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Luis M. Viceira & Zixuan (Kevin) Wang, 2018. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors," NBER Working Papers 24646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2016. "Finance and synchronization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86226, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Understanding global liquidity," Discussion Papers 03/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Business Cycle Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 7468, CESifo.
    21. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2019. "Direct and Network Effects of Idiosyncratic TFP Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 65, Bank of Lithuania.
    23. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Drivers of Turkish inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 315-323.
    24. Khandokar Istiak & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Humaira Husain & Kazi Sohag, 2021. "The Spillover of Inflation among the G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, August.
    25. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies," Working Papers No 6/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    26. Philip Sauré & Andrei Levchenko & Raphael Auer, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," 2017 Meeting Papers 1208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Andrés Fernández & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/280, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
    29. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 120-146, June.
    30. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," IMF Working Papers 2016/054, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Monnet, Eric & Puy, Damien, 2021. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Eric Girardin & Cheikh Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Post-Print hal-01985975, HAL.
    33. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2013. "Globally correlated nominal fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 613-631.
    34. Uluc Aysun & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2019. "The common sources of business cycles in Trans‐Pacific countries and the US? A comparison with NAFTA," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1077-1109, April.
    35. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2015. "Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 65-136, September.
    36. Drago Bergholt & Tommy Sveen, 2014. "Sectoral Interdependence and Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Open Economies," Working Papers No 2/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    37. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia, 2017. "What has caused global business cycle decoupling: Smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 300, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    38. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    39. Jingjing Lyu & Bernd Süssmuth, 2024. "Global Linkages across Sectors and Frequency Bands: A Band Spectral Panel Regression Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10970, CESifo.
    40. Hanna Armelius & Christoph Bertsch & Isaiah Hull & Xin Zhang, 2019. "Spread the Word: International Spillovers from Central Bank Communication," BIS Working Papers 824, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. Gantungalag Altansukh & Ralf Becker & George Bratsiotis & Denise R. Osborn, 2018. "Structural Breaks in International Inflation Linkages for OECD Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 240, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    42. Gyun Cheol Gu, 2015. "Why Have U.S. Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 661-685, November.
    43. Kai Carstensen & Leonard Salzmann, 2016. "The G7 Business Cycle in a Globalized World," CESifo Working Paper Series 5980, CESifo.
    44. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," CAMA Working Papers 2013-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    45. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    46. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    47. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    48. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Paper 2012/11, Norges Bank.
    49. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2016. "Is there really a Global Business Cycle? A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-088/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    50. Grzegorz Wesołowski & Oleg Gurshev, 2025. "US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle," Working Papers 2025-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    51. Salzmann, Leonard, 2016. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145633, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    52. Dilip M. Nachane & Amlendu Dubey, 2021. "The Spectral Envelope: An Application to the Decoupling Problem in Economics," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 287-308, December.
    53. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    54. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    55. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    56. Dilip Nachane & Amlendu Dubey, 2018. "India in the globalized economy : Growth spillovers & business cycle synchronization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 89-115, January.
    57. Hugo Gerard, 2012. "Co-movement in Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    58. Servén, Luis & Abate, Girum Dagnachew, 2020. "Adding space to the international business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    59. António Rua & Francisco Dias, 2020. "A non-hierarchical dynamic factor model for three-way data," Working Papers w202007, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    60. Julio Carrillo, 2017. "Inquiry on the Transmission of U.S. Aggregate Shocks to Mexico: A SVAR Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    61. Kang, Sang Hoon & Lahmiri, Salim & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Inflation cycle synchronization in ASEAN countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    62. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    63. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George J. & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the Globalisation of Inflation?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74, pages 1-27.
    64. Alberto Americo & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Johannes Damp & Sjur Nilsen & Daniel Rees & Rafael Schmidt & Christian Schmieder, 2025. "Inflation cycles: evidence from international data," BIS Working Papers 1264, Bank for International Settlements.
    65. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2018. "The Determinants Of Indonesian Business Cycle," Working Papers WP/30/2018, Bank Indonesia.
    66. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    67. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Intersectoral Network-Based Channel of Aggregate TFP Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 63, Bank of Lithuania.
    68. Aysun, Uluc, 2024. "Identifying the external and internal drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    69. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.
    70. Aysun, Uluc, 2022. "A structural approach to measuring the degree of economic integration: Evidence from G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    71. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign shocks," Working Paper 2015/15, Norges Bank.
      • Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers No 11/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    72. Eugen Scarlat, 2016. "Connectivity - Based Clustering of GDP Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 23-38, March.
    73. Lange, Ronald H., 2015. "International long-term yields and monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 292-310.
    74. Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ & Roman MARŠÁLEK, 2012. "Time and frequency domain in the business cycle structure," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(7), pages 332-346.
    75. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    76. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    77. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
    78. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    79. Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2022. "Encompassing measures of international consumption risk sharing and their link with trade and financial globalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 433-449, March.
    80. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.
    81. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    82. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Olaolu Olayeni, 2015. "Analyzing Time–Frequency Based Co-movement in Inflation: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 91-109, January.
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  55. Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2008. "Investigating the structural stability of the Phillips curve relationship," Bank of England working papers 350, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. William, Barnett & Guo, Chen, 2015. "Bifurcation of macroeconometric models and robustness of dynamical inferences," MPRA Paper 63772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    3. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Staff Reports 388, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    5. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Barrera-Chaupis, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012 [The relationship between inflation's and growth's discrete cycles: Peru 1993-2012]," MPRA Paper 60959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    8. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    10. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    11. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    12. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2014. "Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 58737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    15. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    16. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    17. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    18. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.

  56. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?," Working Papers No 8/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kaneez, Fatima & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    4. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    5. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    6. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-32.
    8. Karagedikli, Özer & Mumtaz, Haroon & Tanaka, Misa, 2010. "All together now: do international factors explain relative price comovements?," Bank of England working papers 381, Bank of England.
    9. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
    10. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. F. Ferroni & B. Klaus, 2014. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Working papers 522, Banque de France.
    12. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2011. "Are EME indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Bank of England working papers 410, Bank of England.
    13. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    14. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    15. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    16. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    17. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    18. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
    19. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    20. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    21. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
    24. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2016. "The Identification Of Inflation Rate Determinants In The Usa Using The Stochastic Search Variable Selection," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 8(1), pages 171-181, March.
    25. Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  57. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Marwa Elsherif, 2024. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-69, May.
    2. Jamie Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-038/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2020. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 20-16, Bank of Canada.
    4. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    5. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large-scale mixture innovation models," Papers 1607.04532, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    6. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    8. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    9. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    10. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    11. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    12. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    13. Alessia Paccagnini, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure During The Great Moderation," Open Access publications 10197/7324, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    14. Laura Liu & Christian Matthes & Katerina Petrova, 2022. "Monetary Policy Across Space and Time," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 37-64, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
    17. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
    18. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    19. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    20. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    21. Wohlfarth, Paul & Chen, Xiaohong, 2024. "Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of CIP violations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    22. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
    23. Petrova, Katerina, 2019. "A quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach to time varying parameter VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 286-306.
    24. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015. "A Bayesian Local Likelihood Method for Modelling Parameter Time Variation in DSGE Models," Working Papers 770, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    25. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    26. Nikola Mirkov, 2014. "International financial transmission of the Fed's monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 7-49, September.
    27. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    28. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    29. Kapetanios, George & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Petrova, Katerina & Waldron, Matthew, 2019. "A time-varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    30. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    31. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    32. Lyu, Yongjian & Tuo, Siwei & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility：New evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    33. Lyu, Yongjian & Wei, Yu & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Good volatility, bad volatility and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the crude oil futures market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    34. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the role of economic uncertainty in oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a new time-varying oil market model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    35. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    36. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    37. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2022. "Is gold a safe haven for exchange rate risks? An empirical study of major currency countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

  58. Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 746, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Luca Benati, 2008. "The “Great Moderation” in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
    4. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
    5. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
    6. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    9. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    10. B. Hofmann & G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2010. "Time Variation in U.S. Wage Dynamics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/691, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2014. "Evolving UK and US macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of a model of deterministic structural change," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 305-345, August.
    12. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    13. Michael Ellington, 2022. "The Empirical Relevance of the Shadow Rate and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1605-1635, September.
    14. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03498781, HAL.
    15. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 26-41.
    17. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2012. "Monetary policy in a small open economy with fixed exchange rate: The case of Macedonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 594-608.
    18. Corina SAMAN, 2016. "The Impact of the US and Euro Area Financial Systemic Stress to the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-183, December.
    19. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    21. Angelia L. Grant, 2017. "The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 224-232, January.
    22. Berg Tim Oliver, 2015. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 13-46, April.
    23. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2014. "Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1591-1626, December.
    24. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    25. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    26. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    27. Alexie Alupoaiei & Ana-Maria Sandica, 2013. "Assessing Structural Convergence between Romanian Economy and Euro Area: A Bayesian Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 372-383, July.
    28. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2016. "The Effect Of Labor And Financial Frictions On Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 313-341, January.
    29. Orkida (Findiku) Ilollari & Gentiana Gjino, 2013. "Financial crisis. Implementation of macro- and micro-prudential regulation," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 83-91, June.
    30. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    32. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Would the Bundesbank have prevented the Great Inflation in the United States?," Working Paper Series 1134, European Central Bank.
    33. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2013. "Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-141.
    34. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    35. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, Inflation and Asset Prices in a Time-Varying Framework for the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 08/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    36. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2021. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," Working papers 829, Banque de France.
    37. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2012. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market: How to Check Sign Restrictions in Structural VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1195, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    38. Landolfo, Luigi, 2007. "Modeling the impact of external factors on the euro area's HICP and real economy: a focus on pass-through and the trade balance," Working Paper Series 789, European Central Bank.
    39. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    40. Prüser, Jan, 2021. "The horseshoe prior for time-varying parameter VARs and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    41. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.
    42. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    43. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Kirchner, Markus, 2010. "Transmission of government spending shocks in the euro area: Time variation and driving forces," Working Paper Series 1219, European Central Bank.
    44. Qureshi, Irfan, 2018. "Money Aggregates and Determinacy : A Reinterpretation of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1156, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    45. Jinshun Wu & Luyao Wu, 2024. "Bayesian Local Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying DSGE Models: Allowing for Indeterminacy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2437-2476, October.
    46. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2018. "Time-Frequency Response Analysis of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers IES 2018/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2018.
    47. Banerjee, A. & Sheheryar Malik, 2012. "The changing role of expectations in US monetary policy: A new look using the Livingston Survey," Working papers 376, Banque de France.
    48. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    49. Michael Ellington & Chris Florackis & Costas Milas, 2016. "Liquidity Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-varying Parameter VAR," Working Paper series 16-28, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    50. Christiane Baumeister & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Changes in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Staff Working Papers 12-13, Bank of Canada.
    51. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    52. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
    53. Hahn, Elke & Mestre, Ricardo, 2011. "The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s," Working Paper Series 1356, European Central Bank.
    54. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.
    55. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area," Working Paper Research 142, National Bank of Belgium.

  59. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Mykhaylova Olena & Staveley-O’Carroll James, 2014. "International transmission of productivity shocks with nonzero net foreign debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 579-624, January.
    2. Matthieu Bussière & Guillaume Gaulier & Walter Steingress, 2017. "Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities," Staff Working Papers 17-41, Bank of Canada.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    4. Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter & Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Guillaume Gaulier & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Isabelle Méjean, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Trough at the Product Level," Working Papers 2006-02, CEPII research center.
    7. Valérie Mignon & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Accounting for changes in the Eurozone trade structure," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through into German import prices - a disaggregated perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(34), pages 4164-4177, December.
    9. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Berner, Eike, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through: New evidence from German micro data," Economics Working Papers 2011-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    11. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy: an estimated Markov-switching DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 397, Bank of England.
    12. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    13. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Tunisia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/319, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Wang, Jian, 2010. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 55-78, February.
    16. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
    17. Doo Bong, HAN & Ji-Yong, LEE, 2009. "Spikes and Pass-Through of Global Grain Prices on the Korean Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Rural Economics, Agricultural Economics Society of Japan, vol. 81(2), pages 1-9, September.
    18. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries," Working Paper Series 822, European Central Bank.
    19. Yamin Ahmad & Olena Mykhaylova, 2015. "Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 15-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2017.
    20. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Forecasting inflation under uncertainty: The forgotten dog and the frisbee," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    21. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    22. Chung, Wanyu, 2016. "Imported inputs and invoicing currency choice: Theory and evidence from UK transaction data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 237-250.
    23. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
    24. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    25. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    26. Khun, Channary & Lim, Sokchea & Basnet, Hem, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Japanese Import Prices: Evidence at Both Bilateral and Product Levels," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(2), pages 115-132, November.
    27. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Exchange Rate Targeting in the Presence of Foreign Debt Obligations," Working Papers 1604, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    28. Jovic, Srdjan & Smigic Miladinovic, Jasmina & Micic, Radmila & Markovic, Sanja & Rakic, Goran, 2019. "Analysing of exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) by adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 333-338.
    29. Roberto Álvarez & Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 465, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.
    31. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    32. Christian Pinshi & Emmanuel Sungani, 2018. "The Relevance Of Pass-Through Effect: Should We Revisit Monetary Policy Regime?," Post-Print hal-02566800, HAL.
    33. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," Borradores de Economia 5089, Banco de la Republica.
    34. M. Nusrate Aziz & Nick Horsewood & Somnath Sen, 2014. "The First and Second Stage Pass-through of Exchange Rates: A Developing Country Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 595-609, August.

  60. Andrew Benito & Haroon Mumtaz, 2006. "Consumption excess sensitivity, liquidity constraints and the collateral role of housing," Bank of England working papers 306, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Hong Kong's Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 152014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Jingjing Yan, 2018. "The Heterogenous Impact of Fluctuation of Housing Prices upon Consumption of Urban Households in China," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-8.
    3. M.A. Akudugu, 2011. "Rural banks' financial capital and livelihoods development of women farmers in Ghana," Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(4), pages 248-264, October.
    4. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    5. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    6. Declan French & Donal McKillop & Tripti Sharma, 2017. "Analysis of Housing Equity Withdrawal by its Forms," CHaRMS Working Papers 17-04, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    7. Surico, Paolo & Cloyne, James, 2013. "Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 9649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Umar Faruqui & Samah Torchani, 2012. "How Important Are Liquidity Constraints for Canadian Households? Evidence from Micro-Data," Discussion Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.
    9. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2011. "Valuing Homeownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 491-504, November.
    10. Hjortsoe, Ida & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "Monetary policy and the current account; theory and evidence," Discussion Papers 45, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    11. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2014. "Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-28.
    12. Tatiana Kirsanova & Jack Rogers, 2013. "Fixed versus Variable Rate Debt Contracts and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 1306, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    13. Chamil W. Senarathne & Wei Jianguo, 2018. "The Stochastic Implications of Permanent Income Hypothesis for US Speculative Traders: Implications for Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 20(2), pages 5-32, December.
    14. Kangogo, Daniel & Lagat, Job & Ithinji, Gicuru, 2013. "The Influence of Social Capital Dimensions on Household Participation in Micro-Credit Groups and Loan Repayment Performance in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya," MPRA Paper 48624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
    16. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2014. "Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Irish Households, 1994 to 2005," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 511-535.
    17. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2007. "The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 287, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    18. Besley, Tim & Surico, Paolo & Meads, Neil, 2008. "Household External Finance and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 6934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ke Chen & Miss Mali Chivakul, 2008. "What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 2008/202, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Andrew Benito, 2007. "Housing equity as a buffer: evidence from UK households," Bank of England working papers 324, Bank of England.
    21. Hjortsoe, Ida & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2018. "How does financial liberalisation affect the influence of monetary policy on the current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 93-123.
    22. Hsuan-Hua Huang & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2023. "Liquidity Constraints, Cash Windfalls, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners," Papers 2303.17029, arXiv.org.
    23. Dalina Amonhaemanon, 2015. "The Impact of Stock Price and Real Estate Price Shocks on Consumption: The Thai Experience," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 137-148, January.
    24. Akudugu, M. A., 2012. "Estimation of the Determinants of Credit Demand by Farmers and Supply by Rural Banks in Ghana’s Upper East Region," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 2(02), pages 1-13, June.

  61. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2005. "'Aggregation Bias' DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. C. Thubin & Thomas Ferrière & Eric Monnet & Magali Marx & Vichett Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    2. Mayoral, Laura & Dolores Gadea, María, 2011. "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 290-304.
    3. Ariel Burstein & Gita Gopinath, 2013. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation: Aggregation Bias and Convergence," Working Papers 2007_41, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2010. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Working Paper Series 2010-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries," Working Paper Series 822, European Central Bank.
    8. Berka, Martin, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristics of goods," MPRA Paper 8606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
    9. Alexis Antoniades, 2012. "Local Versus Producer Currency Pricing: Evidence From Disaggregated Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1229-1241, November.
    10. Giorgio Fazio & Peter McAdam & Ronald MacDonald, 2007. "Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 389-404, September.
    11. Christian J. Murray & Hatice Ozer-Balli & David H. Papell, 2006. "PPP Persistence within Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Panels," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 388-398, Izmir University of Economics.
    12. M. Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 875-894.
    13. Tm Mokoena, 2007. "Taking The Puzzle Out Of The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: An Application In Respect Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(1), pages 22-34, March.

  62. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Mi Dai & Jianwei Xu, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China: 2000–2009," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 100-120, September.
    3. Weshah Razzak, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: An Update," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & ABM Nasir, 2015. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Commodity Prices in Asian Countries," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 231-240, July.
    5. Radek Stefanski, 2019. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," 2019 Meeting Papers 101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2010. "One TV, One Price?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00612524, HAL.
    7. Yang, Yang & Zhao, Zhao, 2020. "Quantile nonlinear unit root test with covariates and an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 728-736.
    8. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    9. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 599, Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. Vahagn Galstyan, 2007. "How Persistent are International Capital Flows?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp232, IIIS.
    11. Fan, Rui & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tran, Vu, 2023. "Information flows and the law of one price," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Kolev, Galina, 2012. "Quo vadis Eurozone? A reappraisal of the real exchange rate criterion," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66061, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Hyeongwoo Kim & Ippei Fujiwara & Bruce E. Hansen & Masao Ogaki, 2015. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 874-903, September.
    14. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2005. "U.S. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Relative Price Fluctuations," IEPR Working Papers 05.16, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
    15. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2022. "Dominant currency debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 571-589.
    16. Duo Qin, 2006. "Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from Five OECD Countries," Working Papers 575, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. Wimanda, Rizki E., 2009. "Price variability and price convergence: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 427-442, September.
    18. Marina Glushenkova & Andros Kourtellos & Marios Zachariadis, 2016. "Barriers to price convergence," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2016, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    19. Fullerton Jr., Thomas M. & Fierro, Karen P. & Villalobos, Emmanuel, 2009. "Cross-border restaurant price and exchange rate interactions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 281-288, December.
    20. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Montagnoliz, Alberto, 2010. "International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-57, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    21. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2020. "A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 27420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo.
    23. Kenneth W. Clements & H. Y. Izan & Yihui Lan, 2009. "A Stochastic Measure of International Competitiveness," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(1‐2), pages 51-81, March.
    24. Jayanta Sarkar & Hiranya K. Nath, 2013. "City Relative Price Dynamics in Australia: Are Structural Breaks Important?," Working Papers 1301, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    25. Méjean, Isabelle, 2008. "Can firms' location decisions counteract the Balassa-Samuelson effect?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 139-154, December.
    26. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Tasiou, Menelaos & Ventouri, Alexia, 2021. "State-level wage Phillips curves," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-11.
    27. Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Aggregation Bias in Trade Elasticities: The Case of Macedonia," FIW Working Paper series 106, FIW.
    28. Talavera, Oleksandr & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2015. "Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integration," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112885, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Mayoral, Laura & Dolores Gadea, María, 2011. "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 290-304.
    30. Carlos Carvalho, 2005. "Heterogeneity in Price Setting and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," Macroeconomics 0509017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    31. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank.
    32. Méjean, Isabelle & Schwellnus, Cyrille, 2009. "Price convergence in the European Union: Within firms or composition of firms?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-10, June.
    33. Ariel Burstein & Gita Gopinath, 2013. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    35. David C. Parsley, 2010. "Exchange Rate Passthrough in South Africa Panel Evidence from Individual Goods and Services," Working Papers 3580, South African Reserve Bank.
    36. Oleg Itskhoki, 2020. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 28225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "On the Importance of Sectoral and Regional Shocks for Price‐Setting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1234-1253, November.
    38. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 10614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Auer, Raphael, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," CEPR Discussion Papers 10344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Bernard Candelpergher & Michel Miniconi & Florian Pelgrin, 2015. "Long-memory process and aggregation of AR(1) stochastic processes: A new characterization," Working Papers hal-01166527, HAL.
    41. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2010. "Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: The role of sticky information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 48-60, May.
    42. Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2009. "Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products," MPRA Paper 21117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2011. "Home bias and the persistence of real exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 55-59.
    44. Bal??zs ??gert, & L??szl?? Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    45. Marios Zachariadis, 2012. "Global Versus Local Shocks in Micro Price Dynamics," 2012 Meeting Papers 66, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    46. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Law of One Price: Nonlinearities in Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    47. Eric JONDEAU & Florian PELGRIN, 2014. "Estimating Aggregate Autoregressive Processes When Only Macro Data are Available," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-43, Swiss Finance Institute.
    48. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0222, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
    49. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    50. N/A, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Bruegel Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    51. Fabio Canova, 2024. "Should we trust cross‐sectional multiplier estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 589-606, June.
    52. Richard Fabling & Arthur Grimes, 2004. "Insolvency and Economic Development: Regional Variation and Adjustment," Working Papers 03_18, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    53. Rehim Kılıç, 2009. "Nonlinearity and Persistence in PPP: Does Controlling for Nonlinearity Solve the PPP Puzzle?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 570-587, August.
    54. Hiranya K. Nath & Natalie Hegwood, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Relative Price Convergence among U.S. Cities," Working Papers 1204, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    55. Kyoji Fukao & Cristiano Perugini, 2021. "The Long‐Run Dynamics of the Labor Share in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 445-480, June.
    56. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander, 2013. "Spatial considerations on the PPP debate," Working Paper Series 1534, European Central Bank.
    57. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2011. "Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 5478, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    58. Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered," CESifo Working Paper Series 4870, CESifo.
    59. Laura Mayoral, 2013. "Heterogeneous Dynamics, Aggregation, And The Persistence Of Economic Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1295-1307, November.
    60. Matteo Pelagatti & Emilio Colombo, 2012. "Unpuzzling the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 221, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
    61. Quynh Chau Pham Holland & Benjamin Liu & Eduardo Roca, 2019. "International funding cost and heterogeneous mortgage interest-rate pass-through: a bank-level analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1255-1289, October.
    62. Félix Chan & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Stability tests for heterogeneous panel data," Working Papers halshs-00589114, HAL.
    63. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Zhu, Tingting & Rafiq, M.S., 2013. "Are Prices Sticky in Large Developing Economies? An Empirical Comparison of China and India," MPRA Paper 60985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
    66. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    67. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Chris & Papell, David, 2009. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," MPRA Paper 26091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Haroon Mumtaz & Ozlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through into U.K. import prices: evidence from disaggregated data," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue June.
    69. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?," Working Papers halshs-00559170, HAL.
    70. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the complementarity of equilibrium exchange-rate approaches," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00634789, HAL.
    71. Pino, Gabriel & Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni, 2013. "Forecasting disaggregates by sectors and regions : the case of inflation in the euro area and Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    72. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "What Determines European Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 15753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
    74. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-376, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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Articles

  1. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Fasani, Stefano & Grazzini, Jakob & Rossi, Lorenza, 2023. "Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 48-63.

  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "The Changing Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the U.S," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 239-252, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H. & Sun, Chuanwang, 2024. "Forecasting oil prices: Can large BVARs help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    3. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
    5. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural Interpretation," Working papers 714, Banque de France.
    6. Ellington, Michael, 2022. "Fat tails, serial dependence, and implied volatility index connections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 768-779.
    7. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Amritkant MISHRA, 2024. "Do Economic Policy Uncertainty Have Ramifications On Inflation And Stock Market Performance? Evidence From Global Framework," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 19(3), pages 172-190, December.
    9. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    10. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    11. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2019. "Bayesian Analysis of Coefficient Instability in Dynamic Regressions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-32, June.
    13. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    14. Haque, Qazi & Magnusson, Leandro M., 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    18. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2019. "Empirical evidence on the dynamics of investment under uncertainty in the U.S," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    20. Sangyup Choi & Jeeyeon Phi, 2023. "Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality," CAMA Working Papers 2023-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Ahmed Kamara & Niraj P. Koirala, 2023. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, January.
    22. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2024. "Macro‐financial linkages in the high‐frequency domain: Economic fundamentals and the Covid‐induced uncertainty channel in US and UK financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1581-1608, April.
    23. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    24. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    25. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    26. Bowen Fu & Mengheng Li & Qazi Haque, 2025. "Exchange Rates, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Time‐Varying Fama Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 310-324, April.
    27. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Onour , Ibrahim A., 2021. "Modeling and assessing systematic risk in stock markets in major oil exporting countries," Economic Consultant, Scientific and Educational Initiative LLC, vol. 35(3), pages 18-29.
    29. Yeonggyu Yun & Hye-Young Jung, 2020. "Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Household Consumption and Working Hours: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    30. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks," Discussion Papers 14/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    32. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "The confidence channel of U.S. financial uncertainty: Evidence from industry-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    33. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
    34. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel, 2020. "Increasing Business Uncertainty and Credit Conditions in Times of Low and High Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8791, CESifo.
    35. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    36. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    37. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    38. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    39. Usman, Ojonugwa & Ozkan, Oktay & Koy, Ayben & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2024. "Energy-related uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S: A multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 235-247.
    40. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    41. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    42. Jan Prüser & Alexander Schlösser, 2020. "On the Time‐Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the US Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(5), pages 1217-1237, October.
    43. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    44. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    45. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    46. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    47. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    48. Tim Kovalenko, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size," Working Papers 212, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    49. Lyu, Yongjian & Tuo, Siwei & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility：New evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    50. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    51. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    52. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    53. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
    54. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    55. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    56. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    57. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2023. "Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    58. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
    59. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    60. Pintér, Gábor, 2023. "Inflation and uncertainty in New Keynesian models: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

  4. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.

    Cited by:

    1. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "Persistence of State-Level Uncertainty of the United States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202208, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Saltzman, Bennett & Yung, Julieta, 2018. "A machine learning approach to identifying different types of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-62.
    4. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Economic Conditions across US States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202410, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Linyan Dai & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Impact of Uncertainty on State-Level Housing Markets of the United States: The Role of Social Cohesion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-9, March.
    8. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Mamadou Bah & Nelson Abila, 2024. "Institutional determinants of insurance penetration in Africa," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 138-179, January.
    10. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    11. Soojin Jo & Justin J. Lee, 2019. "Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1904, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Huang, Zhuo & Tong, Chen & Qiu, Han & Shen, Yan, 2018. "The spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the U.S. and China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 123-127.
    17. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    18. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Drygalla, Andrej & Gebauer, Stefan & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Lindner, Axel & Michelsen, Claus & Rieth, Malte & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Kurzfristige ökonomische Effekte eines "Brexit" auf die deutsche Wirtschaft: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie," IWH Online 3/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Hankins, William B. & Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2022. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on state-level employment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2022. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States," Working Papers 202251, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi-Keung (Marco) & Sheng, Xin, 2020. "Graph theory-based network analysis of regional uncertainties of the US Economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    22. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    23. Wei‐Fong Pan & James Reade & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Measuring US regional economic uncertainty," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1149-1178, September.
    24. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Forecasting Charge-Off Rates with a Panel Tobit Model: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 202092, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Cepni, Oguzhan & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    26. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2025. "The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    27. Shen, Yifan & Shi, Xunpeng & Zeng, Ting, 2017. "Global Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Activity and Commodity Price," MPRA Paper 90089, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Nov 2018.
    28. Andreas Dibiasi & Samad Sarferaz, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," Post-Print hal-04167343, HAL.
    29. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wadström, Christoffer & Sharmi, Rubaiya Zaman, 2022. "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    30. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    31. Wang, Xinya & Xu, Xin & Rong, Xueyun & Xuan, Siyuan, 2024. "Identification of the contagion effect in China's financial market uncertainties: A multiscale and dynamic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1340-1362.
    32. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Udomsak Wongchoti & Su Dinh Thanh, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for insurance development? Evidence from 16 OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(4), pages 614-648, October.
    33. Tangyong Liu & Xu Gong & Lizhi Tang, 2022. "The uncertainty spillovers of China's economic policy: Evidence from time and frequency domains," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4541-4555, October.
    34. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Uncertainty and forecastability of regional output growth in the UK: Evidence from machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1049-1064, September.
    35. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Do U.S. economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil-price returns? A quantile machine-learning approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.

  5. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "What Do Vars Tell Us About The Impact Of A Credit Supply Shock?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 625-646, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on inequality in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 410-423.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
    2. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023. "Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
    3. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2024. "BVARs and stochastic volatility," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 3, pages 43-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Economic Growth in the Presence of Fiscal Consolidation in South Africa from 1994 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2022. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 859-884, June.
    7. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez Fernández, Nerea, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in Spain: SVAR approach with sign restrictions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    10. Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK," MPRA Paper 90448, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  11. Faccini, Renato & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2016. "International fiscal spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 31-45.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0220, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Désirée I Christofzik & Steffen Elstner, 2021. "International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: evidence from Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 578-600.
    3. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2018. "Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2018/103, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2020. "International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending," Working papers 2020rwp-179, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    6. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    7. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Fabrice Dabiré & Hashmat Khan & Patrick Richard & Jean-François Rouillard, 2021. "Characterizing G-multipliers in Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 21-14, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 14 Mar 2023.
    9. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Ong, Kian, 2018. "Do fiscal spending news shocks generate financial spillovers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 46-49.
    11. Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James & Young, Eric R., 2023. "Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2024. "Fiscal spillover in emerging economies: Real versus financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    14. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2019. "The international transmission of US tax shocks: a proxy-SVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1223, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel Murphy & Eric Young & Kieran Walsh, 2018. "Debt Burdens and the Interest Rate Response to Fiscal Stimulus: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," 2018 Meeting Papers 936, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Vanessa Kunzmann, 2023. "Estimating Regime Dependent Fiscal Spillover Effects in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 227, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    17. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel Murphy & Kieran James Walsh & Eric R. Young, 2019. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Discussion Papers Series 609, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    18. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2024. "Global shocks, budgets deficits, and international fiscal policy coordination," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1341-1363, August.
    19. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Michael B. Devereux, 2018. "International Fiscal Spillovers: A Review Essay," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 29-50.
    22. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    23. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Drivers of international fiscal spillovers," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 1491-1536, November.
    24. Wen Zhang, 2024. "The evolving international effects of China's government spending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1851-1869, May.
    25. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    27. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2025. "Adaptive Importance Sampling Estimation of an Open Economy Model with Fiscal Policy," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS111, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    28. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel P. Murphy & Kieran Walsh & Eric Young, 2020. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus," Working Papers 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    29. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.
    30. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2024. "Tax shocks, firm entry, and productivity in the open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    31. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.

  12. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2016. "The Effect Of Labor And Financial Frictions On Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 313-341, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "The International Transmission Of Volatility Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 512-533, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Time-Varying Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 319-338, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2015. "Factor adjustment costs: A structural investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 341-355.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.

    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2016. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states," Working Papers 204, Bank of Greece.

  17. Andrea Carriero & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2015. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1223-1238, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.

    Cited by:

    1. Doojav Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam Davaajargal, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Mongolia: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 27-48, January.
    2. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2020. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers e152, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    3. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    5. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1713-1730, September.
    6. Akbari Dehbaghi, Simin & Arman, Seyed Aziz & Ahangari, Majid, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran\'s economy: Global Modeling," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 151-180, April.
    7. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    8. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Working Papers No 5/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.
    11. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    13. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2017. "How far does monetary policy reach? Evidence from factor-augmented vector autoregressions for Poland," NBP Working Papers 273, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Takeshi Yagihashi & David D. Selover, 2017. "How Do the Trans-Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2097-2124, October.
    15. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Ying Lun Cheung, 2024. "Identification of Time-Varying Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 76-94, January.
    18. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.

  19. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 535-558, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7697, CESifo.
    2. Eric Tong, 2018. "Collateral crises and unemployment," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 72-90, January.
    3. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    4. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Carbon policies and productivity uncertainty: An intertemporal analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Jamie Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-038/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Working Paper Series 2513, European Central Bank.
    7. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
    9. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    10. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. K. Istrefi & A. Piloiu, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 33, november..
    13. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2024. "Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 18899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Kui-Wai Li, 2017. "Is there an ‘interest rate – speculation’ relationship? Evidence from G7 in the pre- and post-2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(21), pages 2041-2059, May.
    16. Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
    17. Qadan, Mahmoud & Shuval, Kerem & David, Or, 2023. "Uncertainty about interest rates and the real economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    19. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    20. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2020. "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 367-379, April.
    21. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, "undated". "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    22. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    23. Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2015. "Incorporating Economic Policy Uncertainty in US Equity Premium Models: A Nonlinear Predictability Analysis," Working Papers 201545, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.

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    1. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2006. "The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence," Economics Working Papers 971, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2006.
    2. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Financial integration or financial fragmentation? A euro area perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    5. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis," Working Papers No 05/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    8. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
    9. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Jirka Slacalek & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2007. "Price convergence in the enlarged internal market," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 292, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Paper 2023/9, Norges Bank.
    11. Sentana, Enrique & Galesi, Alessandro, 2015. "Fast ML estimation of dynamic bifactor models: an application to European inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Raphael Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew J. Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: the Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," Globalization Institute Working Papers 300, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    14. Friedrich, Christian, 2016. "Global inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: What explains the puzzles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 31-34.
    15. Bobeica, Elena & Jarociński, Marek, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 30.
    16. Patrick Blagrave, 2020. "Inflation co-movement in emerging and developing Asia: the monsoon effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(15), pages 1277-1283, September.
    17. Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-66, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    18. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Bian, Zhicun & Ma, Jun & Ni, Jinlan & Stewart, Shamar, 2020. "Synchronization of regional growth dynamics in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    20. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 18-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    22. Raphael A. Auer & Aaron Mehrotra, 2014. "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific," Working Papers 2014-05, Swiss National Bank.
    23. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ha, Jongrim & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2021. "One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    25. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2014. "Online Appendix to "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR"," Online Appendices 13-184, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    27. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "What drives the global interest rate," Globalization Institute Working Papers 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    28. Marcel Förster & Markus Jorra & Peter Tillmann, 2012. "The Dynamics of International Capital Flows: Results from a Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201221, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    29. Lilian Muchimba & Mimoza Shabani & Alexis Stenfors & Jan Toporowski, 2024. "Decomposing the Rate of Inflation: Price-Setting and Monetary Policy," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-04, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    30. Luis J. Álvarez & Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos, 2021. "Inflation comovements in advanced economies: Facts and drivers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 485-509, February.
    31. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Li Li, 2014. "An international perspective on the recent behavior of inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 267-294.
    32. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "The nature of trade, global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 2007-2031, July.
    33. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    34. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1181-1208, October.
    35. Parker, Miles, 2018. "How global is “global inflation”?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-197.
    36. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    37. Aleksandra Halka & Karol Szafranek, 2017. "Determinants of low inflation in emerging, small open economy. Comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches," EcoMod2017 10560, EcoMod.
    38. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Research 350, National Bank of Belgium.
    39. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Drivers of Turkish inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 315-323.
    40. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    41. Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global factors and trend inflation," BIS Working Papers 688, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Mumtaz, Haroon & Simonelli, Saverio & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective," Discussion Papers 28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    43. Ergemen, Yunus Emre, 2022. "Forecasting inflation rates with multi-level international dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    44. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    45. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    46. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2019. "The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_022, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    47. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Papers 733, DNB.
    48. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno, 2014. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    49. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    50. Saverio Simonelli & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "A Historical Perspective on International Co-movements: 1821-2007," 2009 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    51. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 120-146, June.
    52. Tino Berger & Sibylle Grabert & Bernd Kempa, 2016. "Global and Country-Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 694-716, October.
    53. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. F. Ferroni & B. Klaus, 2014. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Working papers 522, Banque de France.
    55. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    56. Eric Girardin & Cheikh Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Post-Print hal-01985975, HAL.
    57. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2013. "Globally correlated nominal fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 613-631.
    58. Alesina, Alberto Francesco, 2008. "Comments on "When Do Policy Reforms Work?' by Daron Acemoglu et al," Scholarly Articles 12553722, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    59. Ha,Jongrim & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2019. "Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8761, The World Bank.
    60. Panpan Zhu & Qingjie Zhou & Yinpeng Zhang, 2024. "Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    61. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
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    63. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Martin Feldkircher & Elizaveta Lukmanova & Gabriele Tondl, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp289, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    65. Magdalena Kozera-Kowalska & Jarosław Uglis & Jarosław Lira, 2021. "A framework to measure the taxonomic of economic anchor: A case study of the Three Seas Initiative countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-24, May.
    66. Gantungalag Altansukh & Ralf Becker & George Bratsiotis & Denise R. Osborn, 2018. "Structural Breaks in International Inflation Linkages for OECD Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 240, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    67. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    68. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2019. "Global Inflation Synchronization," CAMA Working Papers 2019-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    69. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Global Slack and Domestic Inflation Rates: A Structural Investigation for G-7 Countries," Working Papers 080919, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
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    71. Elena Bobeica & Marek Jarociński, 2019. "Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 199-232, March.
    72. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
    73. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    74. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    75. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
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    80. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    81. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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    84. Sun, Yulong, 2024. "Prices and returns: Role of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    85. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    86. Georgios Magkonis & Abhijit Sharma, 2019. "Inflation Linkages Within The Eurozone: Core vs. Periphery," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 277-289, May.
    87. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
    88. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    89. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    90. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Fast computation of the deviance information criterion for latent variable models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 847-859.
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    94. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mujahid, Nooreen & Ali, Amjad, 2013. "Impact of Financial Development and Globalization on Inflation: The Role of Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 51675, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Nov 2013.
    95. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & Pablo Querubin & James A. Robinson, 2008. "When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 14033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    96. Dahlan Abdullah & Nurul Husna Zabidi & Dina Nurzafira Zulzamzuri & Ahmad Redhuan Abu Bakar & Siti Aisyah Tumin & Teku Zariff Zaeimoedin, 2024. "Unpacking the Inflation Basket: A Systematic Literature Review of Key Determinants of Rising Food Prices and their Global Impact," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(9), pages 706-713, September.
    97. Netésunajev, Aleksei & Winkelmann, Lars, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    98. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Working Papers 145, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    99. Seohyun Lee, 2025. "Measuring Interdependence of Inflation Uncertainty," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2707-2741, May.
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    101. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    102. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    103. Kang, Sang Hoon & Lahmiri, Salim & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Inflation cycle synchronization in ASEAN countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    104. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    105. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2017. "The impact of EMU on bond yield convergence: Evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 206-222.
    106. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    107. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Commonality and Heterogeneity in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 70078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    108. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George J. & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the Globalisation of Inflation?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74, pages 1-27.
    109. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    110. Gent Bajraj & Guillermo Carlomagno & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2023. "Where is the Inflation? The Diverging Patterns of Prices of Goods and Services," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 969, Central Bank of Chile.
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    113. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Intersectoral Network-Based Channel of Aggregate TFP Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 63, Bank of Lithuania.
    114. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    115. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.
    116. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    117. Arpita Chatterjee, 2014. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Comovement: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Discussion Papers 2014-19, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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    120. Saygılı, Hülya, 2023. "How do real and monetary integrations affect inflation dynamics?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 18-27.
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    129. Paweł Gajewski, 2017. "Sources of Regional Inflation in Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 261-276, May.
    130. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    131. Mikolajun, Irena & Lodge, David, 2016. "Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors," Working Paper Series 1948, European Central Bank.
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    133. Chon, Sora, 2020. "International Inflation Synchronization and Implications," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 42(2), pages 57-84.

  26. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral Technology Shocks And The Dynamics Of Labor Input: Results From An Agnostic Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2020. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve. Empirical Evidence from EU Enlargement," WIFO Working Papers 606, WIFO.
    3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2015. "Factor adjustment costs: A structural investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 341-355.
    4. Michael Ellington & Chris Martin & Bingsong Wang, 2024. "Revisiting Real Wage Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 613-626, March.
    5. Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Discussion Papers 2436, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "News and Labor Market Dynamics in the Data and in Matching Models," Economics Series Working Papers 699, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Matthias Gubler & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S," Working Papers 2013-05, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    10. Agostino Consolo & Filippos Petroulakis, 2022. "Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?," Working Papers 295, Bank of Greece.
    11. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    12. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "Flexible prices, labor market frictions, and the response of employment to technology shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    14. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Klein, Mathias & Krause, Christopher, 2015. "Technology-Labor and Fiscal Spending Crowding-in Puzzles: The Role of Interpersonal Comparison," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Saidul Islam, 2024. "Investment-specific technology shocks and business cycle: evidence from a sign restriction approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 249-283, June.
    17. Ellington, Michael & Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2021. "Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Carlos Madeira & Leonardo Salazar, 2023. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on a Labor Market with Heterogeneous Workers: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 980, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State dependence in labour market fluctuations," Working Papers 47, European Stability Mechanism.
    20. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 32098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Martin Iseringhausen & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2025. "A survey-based measure of asymmetric macroeconomic risk in the euro area," Working Papers 68, European Stability Mechanism, revised 11 Feb 2025.
    22. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    23. Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2016. "News shocks and labour market dynamics in matching models," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 906-930, August.
    24. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    25. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    26. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    27. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    28. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    29. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Agostino Consolo & Claudia Foroni & Catalina Martínez Hernández, 2023. "A Mixed Frequency BVAR for the Euro Area Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 1048-1082, October.
    31. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Labor Market Dynamics: a Time-varying Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 728, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    32. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    33. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    34. Alok Johri & Muhebullah Karimzada, 2015. "Learning Efficiency Shocks, Knowledge Capital and the Business Cycle : A Bayesian Evaluation," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-11, McMaster University.
    35. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino, 2024. "Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    36. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.

  27. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Alex Haberis & Anna Lipińska, 2020. "A Welfare‐Based Analysis of International Monetary Policy Spillovers at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1107-1145, August.
    2. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
    3. Kostas Mavromatis, 2020. "Finite Horizons and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 327-378, September.
    4. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions and Structural Changes: A Markov-Switching DSGE approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    5. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation," Working Paper 2013/24, Norges Bank.
    6. Boris Blagov, 2013. "Financial crises and time- varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-Switching DSGE model for Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    7. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba & Lisandro Fermin & Soledad Torres, 2025. "Modeling Maximum drawdown Records with Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processe in Capital Markets," Papers 2503.23221, arXiv.org.
    9. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    11. Himmels, Christoph & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2018. "Discretionary policy in a small open economy: Exchange rate regimes and multiple equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-64.
    12. Sergey Ivashchenko & Semih Emre Çekin & Kevin Kotzé & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Forecasting with Second-Order Approximations and Markov-Switching DSGE Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 747-771, December.
    13. Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
    15. William A. Barnett & Giovanni Bella & Taniya Ghosh & Paolo Mattana & Beatrice Venturi, 2021. "Chaos in the UK New Keynesian Macroeconomy," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202119, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2021.
    16. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    17. Pawel Baranowski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    18. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State dependence in labour market fluctuations," Working Papers 47, European Stability Mechanism.
    19. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    20. Zamarripa, Rene, 2024. "Parameter instabilities and monetary policy in a small open economy: Evidence from an estimated model for the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    21. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    22. Frédéric Karamé, 2018. "A new particle filtering approach to estimate stochastic volatility models with Markov-switching," Post-Print hal-02296093, HAL.
    23. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    24. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models," Working Papers No 4/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    25. Lenhle Dlamini & Harold Ngalawa, 2022. "Macroprudential policy and house prices in an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for South Africa," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 304-336, June.
    26. Sebastián Cadavid Sánchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    27. Xiaoshan Chen & Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2013_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    28. Alstadheim, Ragna & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2021. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    29. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    30. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    31. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    32. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    33. Kirsanova, Tatiana & le Roux, Stephanus, 2013. "Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-52, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    34. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Variables with a Markov-Switching Small Open-Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    35. Barnett, William A. & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2022. "Is policy causing chaos in the United Kingdom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    36. Oliveira, Eleonora de & Palma, Andreza A. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2024. "A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    37. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2021. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies in the UK," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(4), pages 445-467, November.
    38. Hur, Joonyoung & Lee, Kang Koo, 2017. "Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 473-486.
    39. Choi, Jinho & Hur, Joonyoung, 2015. "An examination of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea exploiting a Markov-switching DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-199.
    40. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    41. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2018. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6887, CESifo.

  28. Haroon Mumtaz & Ozlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through into U.K. import prices: evidence from disaggregated data," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue June.

    Cited by:

    1. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia, 2016. "A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 985-1000.
    2. Md Deluair Hossen, 2023. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Data Frequency: Firm-Level Evidence from Bangladesh," Papers 2303.04101, arXiv.org.
    3. Ghosh, Amit, 2013. "Exchange rate pass through, macro fundamentals and regime choice in Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 163-171.

  29. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Jean M. Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2010. "One TV, One Price?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 753-781, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Jamie Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-038/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
    3. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    4. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    5. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    6. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    7. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.
    8. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 18-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André Santos, 2015. "Measuring Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios using Yield Curve Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 65-82, June.
    10. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    11. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2014. "Online Appendix to "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR"," Online Appendices 13-184, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    12. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large-scale mixture innovation models," Papers 1607.04532, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    13. Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    14. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    15. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2015. "Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Chan R. Mang, 2014. "Uncertain Risk and Return in Bond Markets, I," 2014 Papers pma1706, Job Market Papers.
    17. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 26-41.
    18. Faccini, Renato & Millard, Stephen & Zanetti, Francesco, 2011. "Wage rigidities in an estimated DSGE model of the UK labour market," Bank of England working papers 408, Bank of England.
    19. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    20. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    21. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    22. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
    23. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    24. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    25. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    26. Dungey, Mardi & Tugrul Vehbi, M, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," Working Papers 11610, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    27. Alessia Paccagnini, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure During The Great Moderation," Open Access publications 10197/7324, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    28. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    29. Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2024. "The shape of the Treasury yield curve and commodity prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    30. Park, Kwangyong, 2022. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates and central bank credibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    31. Han, Xu, 2018. "Estimation and inference of dynamic structural factor models with over-identifying restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 125-147.
    32. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
    33. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2014. "Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 546-572, March.
    34. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
    35. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    36. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    37. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    38. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    39. Rogier Quaedvlieg & Peter Schotman, 2022. "Hedging Long-Term Liabilities [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 505-538.
    40. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    41. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    42. Francesco Bianchi, 2010. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Working Papers 10-40, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    43. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    45. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna, 2018. "Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-192.
    46. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng & Lu, Lina, 2014. "Estimation and inference of FAVAR models," MPRA Paper 60960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Han, Xu, 2015. "Tests for overidentifying restrictions in Factor-Augmented VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 394-419.
    48. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    49. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    50. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    51. Marius Acatrinei, 2017. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and latent factor of the EU yield curve," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 11, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    52. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    53. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.
    54. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    55. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    56. Nicholas Addai Boamah, 2016. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rate: the case of Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, January.
    57. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.
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  32. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
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  33. Benito, Andrew & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "Excess Sensitivity, Liquidity Constraints, And The Collateral Role Of Housing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 305-326, June.

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    1. John Gathergood & Joerg Weber, 2015. "Is Poor Financial Literacy a Barrier to Home Ownership?," Discussion Papers 2015/16, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    2. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    3. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
    4. Andrew Benito & Jumana Saleheen, 2013. "Labour Supply as a Buffer: Evidence from UK Households," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(320), pages 698-720, October.
    5. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    6. Surico, Paolo & Cloyne, James, 2013. "Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 9649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Umar Faruqui & Samah Torchani, 2012. "How Important Are Liquidity Constraints for Canadian Households? Evidence from Micro-Data," Discussion Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.
    8. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2011. "Valuing Homeownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 491-504, November.
    9. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    10. Tatiana Kirsanova & Jack Rogers, 2013. "Fixed versus Variable Rate Debt Contracts and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 1306, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    11. Declan French, 2016. "Financial Strain in the United Kingdom," CHaRMS Working Papers 16-02, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    12. Viola Angelini & Peter Simmons, "undated". "Housing Debt and Consumption," Discussion Papers 11/20, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Kangogo, Daniel & Lagat, Job & Ithinji, Gicuru, 2013. "The Influence of Social Capital Dimensions on Household Participation in Micro-Credit Groups and Loan Repayment Performance in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya," MPRA Paper 48624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2012. "A DSGE-based assessment of nonlinear loan-to-Value policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21204, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    15. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2014. "Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Irish Households, 1994 to 2005," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 511-535.
    16. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2007. "The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 287, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    17. Gathergood, John & Weber, Jörg, 2017. "Financial literacy: A barrier to home ownership for the young?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 62-78.
    18. Guo, Sheng, 2010. "The superior measure of PSID consumption: An update," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 253-256, September.
    19. Ms. Pritha Mitra, 2011. "Capital Flows to EU New Member States: Does Sector Destination Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/067, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Besley, Tim & Surico, Paolo & Meads, Neil, 2008. "Household External Finance and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 6934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2018. "Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 632-657, October.

  34. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.

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    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9884, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland & J rn I. Halvorsen, 2010. "How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence," Working Papers No 1/2010, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    6. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    7. Özer Karagedikli & Ryan, Michael & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Kristin Forbes & Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose, 2024. "Rate Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2402, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Harald Uhlig & Pooyan Amir Ahmadi, 2012. "Measuring The Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks: A Bayesian Favar Approach With Sign Restriction," 2012 Meeting Papers 1060, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Raphael Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew J. Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: the Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," Globalization Institute Working Papers 300, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Vasishtha, Garima & Maier, Philipp, 2013. "The impact of the global business cycle on small open economies: A FAVAR approach for Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 191-207.
    13. Lian An & Xiaomei Ren & Huimin Li & Jing Xu, 2017. "Exchange Rate And Us Macroeconomy: Evidence From The Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 483-508, June.
    14. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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    17. Carvallo, Oscar & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2016. "Macroeconomic shocks, bank stability and the housing market in Venezuela," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 174-196.
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    24. Akbari Dehbaghi, Simin & Arman, Seyed Aziz & Ahangari, Majid, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran\'s economy: Global Modeling," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 151-180, April.
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    29. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
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    43. Raphael Auer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Raphael Schoenle, 2024. "Sixty years of global inflation: a post-GFC update," BIS Working Papers 1189, Bank for International Settlements.
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    102. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    103. Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe & Sierra, Lya Paola, 2019. "Importancia de los términos de intercambio en la economía colombiana," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    104. Anastasios Evgenidis & Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1549-1579, May.
    105. Oladunni, Sunday, 2019. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Oil-exporting Small Open Economies: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    106. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
    107. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    108. Hongyi Chen & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy: A Factor-augmented VAR Approach," Working Papers 092016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    109. Ji, Kan & Qian, Zongxin, 2015. "Does tax policy affect credit spreads? Evidence from the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 318-329.
    110. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
    111. Mirela Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 280730188, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    112. Patrick Hendy & Benjamin Beckers, 2024. "How Do Global Shocks Affect Australia?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    113. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2019. "Dynamic credit convergence in CARD: The spreading of common shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    114. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 437, Bank of England.
    115. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    116. Ashvin Ahuja & Suchot Piamchol & Bunnaree Punnarach & Tientip Subhanij, 2008. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," Working Papers 2008-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    117. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    118. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    119. N. Melisa Bilgin & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Producer Price Inflation Connectedness and Input-Output Networks," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1813, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

  35. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "International influences on domestic prices and activities: a FAVAR approach to open economy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.

  36. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 639-649, 04/05.

    Cited by:

    1. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Mr. Haroon Mumtaz & Mr. Jean Imbs & Mr. Morten O. Ravn & Ms. Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2003/068, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marina Glushenkova & Andros Kourtellos & Marios Zachariadis, 2016. "Barriers to price convergence," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2016, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank.
    5. Rodolphe Blavy & Luciana Juvenal, 2008. "Mexico's integration into NAFTA markets: a view from sectoral real exchange rates," Working Papers 2008-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    7. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Law of One Price: Nonlinearities in Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Christian Daude & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Arne Nagengast, 2014. "On the Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Interventions in Emerging Markets," CID Working Papers 288, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Brenton, Paul & Portugal-Perez, Alberto & Regolo, Julie, 2014. "Food prices, road infrastructure, and market integration in Central and Eastern Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7003, The World Bank.
    10. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    11. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    12. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Georg H. Strasser, 2010. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
    14. Chi-Young Choi & Anthony Murphy & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2017. "Segmentation of consumer markets in the US: What do intercity price differences tell us?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 738-777, August.
    15. Camarero, Mariam & Ordóñez, Javier, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 444-449.
    16. Hongjun Li & Zhongjian Lin & Cheng Hsiao, 2015. "Testing purchasing power parity hypothesis: a semiparametric varying coefficient approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 427-438, February.
    17. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    18. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda Tesar, 2005. "A Re-Examination of the Border Effect," Working Papers 546, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    19. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries," Working Paper Series 822, European Central Bank.
    20. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    21. Berka, Martin, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristics of goods," MPRA Paper 8606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
    22. Kai-yin Woo & Shu-kam Lee & Paul Kwok Shum, 2021. "Evidence on PPP with China along the belt and road using the three-regime TAR cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2391-2405, May.
    23. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Inkoo Lee & Sang Soo Park & Marios Zachariadis, 2023. "Non‐linearities in international prices," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 1032-1062, August.
    25. Caputo, Rodrigo, 2015. "Persistent real misalignments and the role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-116.
    26. Hyeyoen Kim, 2011. "Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Post-Print hal-00665456, HAL.
    27. Ming-Jen Chang, 2016. "Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence From Pacific Rim Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-20, September.
    28. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    29. Dimitris, Christopoulos & Miguel, Leon-Ledesma, 2009. "Smooth Breaks and Nonlinear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 22553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "On the performance of a nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity in the presence of linearity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1389-1396.
    31. Enders, Walter & Pascalau, Razvan, 2015. "Pretesting for multi-step-ahead exchange rate forecasts with STAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 473-487.
    32. Jyh‐Lin Wu & Pei‐Fen Chen & Ching‐Nun Lee, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity, Productivity Differentials And Non‐Linearity," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 271-287, June.
    33. Lim, Eun Son & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2019. "Free trade agreements and market integration: Evidence from South Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 241-256.
    34. Carlos Felipe Lopez Suarez & Jose Antonio Rodriguez Lopez, 2008. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 080911, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
    35. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    36. Hyeyoen Kim, 2012. "Large data sets, nonlinearity and the speed of adjustment to real exchange rate shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 631-639, February.
    37. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1125-1132.
    38. Luciana Juvenal & Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2008. "Mexico’s Integration into NAFTA Markets: A View from Sectoral Real Exchange Rates and Transaction Costs," IMF Working Papers 2008/123, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    40. Sophie Béreau & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling," Working Papers 2008-23, CEPII research center.
    41. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    42. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.
    43. Choi, Jae Hoon & Song, Seongho, 2022. "Revisiting the PPP puzzle: Nominal exchange rate rigidity and region of inaction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    44. Lo Ming Chien, 2008. "Nonlinear PPP Deviations: A Monte Carlo Investigation of Their Unconditional Half-Life," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-31, December.

Software components

    Sorry, no citations of software components recorded.

Books

  1. Andrew P Blake & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Applied Bayesian econometrics for central bankers," Technical Books, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 4, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Chris Redl, 2019. "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    3. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    4. Chafwehé, Boris & Colciago, Andrea & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Reallocation, productivity, and monetary policy in an energy crisis," Bank of England working papers 1091, Bank of England.
    5. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2020. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers e152, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    6. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan supply shocks in Macedonia: a Bayesian SVAR approach with sign restrictions," Working Papers 2016-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    7. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Working Paper Series 2026, European Central Bank.
    8. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    12. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2016. "Finance and synchronization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86226, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    15. Glocker, Christian & Url, Thomas, 2022. "Financial sector rescue programs: Domestic and cross border effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
    17. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    18. Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2016. "Do all oil price shocks have the same impact? Evidence from the Euro Area," Economic Letters 07/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    20. Corina SAMAN, 2016. "The Impact of the US and Euro Area Financial Systemic Stress to the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-183, December.
    21. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.
    22. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    23. Zahid,Hamza, 2023. "Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10402, The World Bank.
    24. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    25. Malgorzata Skibinska, 2017. "Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending," KAE Working Papers 2017-027, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    26. Anca Mihaela COPACIU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2022. "Spillovers in the Presence of Financial Stress – An Application to Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-43, April.
    27. Taylor, Mark & Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2016. "Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 11689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    29. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.
    30. Shevelev A.A., 2017. "Bayesian approach to evaluate the impact of external shocks on Russian macroeconomics indicators," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 17(1), pages 26-40.
    31. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Bayesian Modelling Of Inflation Rate In Romania," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(2), pages 147-160, June.
    32. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," Working Papers 202033, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    33. Pestova, Anna (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail (Мамонов, Михаил), 2016. "Estimating the Influence of Different Shocks on Macroeconomic Indicators and Developing Conditional Forecasts on the Basis of BVAR Model for the Russian Economy [Оценка Влияния Различных Шоков На Д," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 56-92, August.
    34. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    35. Sergey Vlasov & Elena Deryugina, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps28, Bank of Russia.
    36. Andrea Colciago & Riccardo Silvestrini, 2020. "Monetary policy, productivity, and market concentration," Working Papers 685, DNB.
    37. Demeshev, Boris & Malakhovskaya, Oxana, 2016. "BVAR mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 118-141.
    38. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    39. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
    40. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Моделирование Эффекта Переноса Валютного Курса На Цены В России // Modeling The Transfer Effect Of Exchange Rate On Prices In Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(3), pages 136-154.
    41. Pervin, Shahida, 2018. "Dynamics and Interactions of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Investigation in the UK Economy with Bayesian VAR," MPRA Paper 91816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    43. Julio Carrillo, 2017. "Inquiry on the Transmission of U.S. Aggregate Shocks to Mexico: A SVAR Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    44. Yasemin Erduman & Neslihan Kaya, 2014. "Determinants of Bond Flows to Emerging Markets: How Do They Change Over Time?," Working Papers 1428, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    45. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    46. Owen Grech & Noel Rapa, 2016. "STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    47. Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    48. Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Zahid,Hamza, 2023. "Commodity Price Cycles :Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10401, The World Bank.
    49. Danica Unevska-Andonova, 2018. "Inflation Decomposition Model: Application to Macedonian inflation," Working Papers 2018-06, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    50. Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting," CQE Working Papers 10422, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    51. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    52. И Управления Мир Экономики, 2017. "Байесовский подход к анализу влияния монетарной политики на макроэкономические показатели России. Bayesian approach to the analysis of monetary policy impact on Russian macroeconomics indicators," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 17(4), pages 53-70.
    53. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    54. Salzmann, Leonard, 2019. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," EconStor Preprints 206691, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    55. Karel Bruna & Quang Van Tran, 2018. "Inflation Targeting and Variability of Money Market Interest Rates Under a Zero Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 519-539, December.
    56. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    57. Matei KUBINSCHI & Dinu BARNEA, 2016. "Systemic Risk Impact on Economic Growth - The Case of the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 79-94, December.
    58. Lartey, Abraham, 2018. "Oil Price Dynamics and Business Cycles in Nigeria:A Bayesian Time Varying Analysis," MPRA Paper 90038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    60. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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