IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v96y2024ipcs1059056024007123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Xiao
  • Yu, Mingzhe

Abstract

As the most innovative initiative for the liberalization of Chinese bond market, the Bond Connect program greatly promotes the participation of cross-border capitals. In this paper, by analyzing the changes in the number of foreign investors entering the market, the volume of bond trading and the total amount of bond holdings, we find that the Bond Connect has become the dominant platform for foreign investors to participate in the Chinese bond market. Besides, using a TVP-VAR model based on a set of monthly time-series data from July 2017 to September 2023, we identify the dynamic impacts of four macroeconomic shocks: bond market forces, economic growth forces, monetary policy shocks, and economic policy uncertainty, on net capital inflows into the Chinese bond market. The results indicate that all these macroeconomic forces significantly affect capital inflows, with bond market forces exerting the greatest impact. Moreover, the direction, magnitude, and trends of each macro factor's impact on net capital inflows exhibit distinct characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Xiao & Yu, Mingzhe, 2024. "Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pc:s1059056024007123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103720
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024007123
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103720?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozge Akinci & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers," Staff Reports 1016, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    3. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.
    4. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    5. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    6. Hung-Gay Fung & Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu & Fan Zhang, 2019. "The Development of China’s Bond Market," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 107-123, January.
    7. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    8. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    11. Zhiguo He & Yuehan Wang & Xiaoquan Zhu, 2023. "The Stock Connect to China," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 125-130, May.
    12. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    13. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    14. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Marlene Amstad & Zhiguo He, 2019. "Chinese Bond Market and Interbank Market," NBER Working Papers 25549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    17. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    18. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    19. Ricco, Giovanni & Degasperi, Riccardo & Hong, Simon, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Nguyen Thanh Binh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 159-172.
    21. Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Regulating capital flows to emerging markets: An externality view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 61-80.
    22. Banerjee, Ryan & Devereux, Michael B. & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2016. "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 275-297.
    23. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    24. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    25. Robin Koepke, 2019. "What Drives Capital Flows To Emerging Markets? A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 516-540, April.
    26. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    27. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    28. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    29. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    30. Sha, Yezhou & Zhang, Ping & Wang, Yiru & Xu, Yifan, 2022. "Capital market opening and green innovation——Evidence from Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    31. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2016. "International capital flows to emerging markets: National and global determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 82-100.
    32. Fan, Qingliang & Wang, Ting, 2017. "The impact of Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect policy on A-H share price premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 222-227.
    33. Wang, Jian & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Is capital flow management effective? Evidence based on U.S. monetary policy shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    34. French, Joseph J. & Li, Wei-Xuan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and fund flows to the United States," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    35. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    36. Ying Xu & Hai Anh La, 2017. "Spillovers of the United States’ Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: The Bank Lending Channel," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2744-2769, December.
    37. Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias & Ulloa, Barbara, 2016. "What drives international portfolio flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-72.
    38. Wang, Shuxun, 2021. "How does stock market liberalization influence corporate innovation? Evidence from Stock Connect scheme in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    39. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    40. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    41. Bevan, Alan A. & Estrin, Saul, 2004. "The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 775-787, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "External shocks, cross-border flows and macroeconomic risks in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2111-2148, May.
    5. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gül, Selçuk & Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2020. "Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2024. "Capital flows-at-risk: Push, pull and the role of policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Schreiber, Sven, 2024. "Expectations, sentiments and capital flows to emerging market economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Dong Phong & Ho, Viet Tien & Nguyen, Trung Thong, 2017. "Where do the advanced countries invest? An investigation of capital flows from advanced countries to emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 142-154.
    10. Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Castelblanco, Geraldine & Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás & Ruiz-Sanchez, Maria A., 2024. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows: An Emerging Market Survey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Boubekeur Baba & Güven Sevil, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Martha López-Piñeros & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Miguel Sarmiento, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Portfolio Flows in an Emerging Market Economy," Borradores de Economia 1200, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    16. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    17. Ines Buono & Flavia Corneli & Enrica Di Stefano, 2024. "Capital inflows to emerging countries and their sensitivity to the global financial cycle," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 17-34, April.
    18. Nguyen Ba Trung, 2022. "Output fluctuations and portfolio flows to emerging economies: The role of monetary uncertainty," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 285-295, December.
    19. Parra-Polanía, Julián & Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2024. "Are FX communications effective? Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Mélina London & Maëva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pc:s1059056024007123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.