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All together now: do international factors explain relative price comovements?

Author

Listed:
  • Karagedikli, Özer

    () (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    () (Bank of England)

  • Tanaka, Misa

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

Recent research has found evidence of increasing comovement in CPI inflation rates across industrialised countries. This paper considers whether this can be attributed to greater global integration of product markets. To examine this question, we build a data set of 28 matched product category price indices for fourteen advanced economies for 1998 Q1 to 2008 Q2, and decompose the inflation rates into a world factor, country-specific factors, and category-specific factors using a Bayesian dynamic factor model with Gibbs sampling. We find that the category-specific factors account for a large part of the comovement in the prices of goods which are intensive in internationally traded primary commodities; but this is less evident for other traded goods. We also find that both the world factor and the category-specific factors become more significant in explaining the movement in the relative prices in the second half of our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Karagedikli, Özer & Mumtaz, Haroon & Tanaka, Misa, 2010. "All together now: do international factors explain relative price comovements?," Bank of England working papers 381, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0381
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2010/all-together-now-do-international-factors-explain-relative-price-comovements.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    3. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
    4. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    6. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "Tradables and non-tradables inflation in Australia and New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, March.
    7. Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala, 2008. "The international dimension of inflation: evidence from disaggregated data," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    10. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miles Parker, 2016. "Global inflation: the role of food, housing and energy prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. John McDermott, 2010. "Discussion of What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disaggregated international price; dynamic factor model; Gibbs sampling;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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