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The Identification Of Inflation Rate Determinants In The Usa Using The Stochastic Search Variable Selection

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  • Mihaela SIMIONESCU

    () (Senior Researcher, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Inflation rate determinants for the USA have been analyzed in this study starting with 2008, when the American economy was already in crisis. This research brings, as a novelty, the use of Bayesian Econometrics methods to identify the monthly inflation rate in the USA. The Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) has been applied for a subjective probability acceptance of 0.3. The results are validated also by economic theory. The monthly inflation rate was influenced during 2008-2015 by: the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, crude oil prices, the trade weighted U.S. Dollar Index and the M2 Money Stock. The study might be continued by considering other potential determinants of the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2016. "The Identification Of Inflation Rate Determinants In The Usa Using The Stochastic Search Variable Selection," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 8(1), pages 171-181, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2016:v:8:i:1:p:171-181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charfeddine Lanouar & Guégan Dominique, 2011. "Which is the Best Model for the US Inflation Rate: A Structural Change Model or a Long Memory Process?," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 5-25, January.
    2. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2015. "Modelling the Link Between US Inflation and Output: The Importance of the Uncertainty Channel," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(5), pages 431-453, November.
    3. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 323-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
    5. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2006. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1877-1893, November.
    6. Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala, 2009. "The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 101-120, February.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "The Boskin Commission Report and its Aftermath," NBER Working Papers 7759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation rate; stochastic search; crisis; prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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