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Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating

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  • Polito, Vito
  • Wickens, Mike

Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating sovereign credit ratings. These are determined by mapping the probability that the debt-GDP ratio might exceed a maximum debt limit at some point in the future into a credit rating. The debt limit can be either ad hoc or based on the financial ability of a government to change fiscal policy in the future to meet its outstanding obligations. When applied to quarterly U.S. data from 1970 to 2011, two clear instances are found in which the U.S. sovereign credit rating would have been downgraded on this basis: during the 1970s oil crisis and in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse in 2008. This result is robust to several alternative views on the maximum borrowing capacity of the U.S. economy.

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  • Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2014. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:202-218
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.008
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    2. Abdul Rafay & Yang Chen & Muhammad A.B.Naeem & Maham Ijaz, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Credit Ratings on Firm Performance and Stock Returns: An Evidence from Taiwan," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(3), pages 771-790, Summer.
    3. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 220-247.
    4. Zoran Ivanovic & Sinisa Bogdan & Suzana Baresa, 2015. "Modeling and Estimating Shadow Sovereign Ratings," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    5. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2014. "How the Euro Crisis Evolved and how to Avoid Another: EMU, Fiscal Policy and Credit Ratings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 364-374.
    6. Fabrice Collard & Michel Habib & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability In Advanced Economies," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 381-420, June.
    7. Gibert, Anna, 2022. "Signalling creditworthiness with fiscal austerity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Ferdinandusse, Marien & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Lalouette, Laure & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Palaiodimos, Georgios & Trindade Campos, Maria Manuel, 2017. "Euro area fiscal stance," Occasional Paper Series 182, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Sovereign risk; Fiscal limits; Default probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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