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A Note on State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Sheng

    (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

Utilising a nonlinear (regime-switching) mixed-frequency panel vector autoregression model, we study the effects of government spending shocks in the United States (US) over the business cycle, while considering the role of partisan conflict. In particular, we investigate whether partisan conflict is relevant to the differences in fiscal spending multipliers in expansionary and recessionary business cycle phases upon the impact of annual government spending shocks using quarterly state-level data covering 1950:Q1 to 2016:Q4. We find new evidence that fiscal multipliers can vary with economic and political conditions. The cumulated effects of government spending shocks are strong and persistent in recessions when the level of partisan conflict is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A Note on State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 202187, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202187
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 851-862, December.
    3. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
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    6. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Spending Shocks; Fiscal Policy Multiplier; Partisan Conflict; Panel Analysis; Vector Autoregressions; Mixed-Frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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