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Politikberatung mit dem Simulationsmodell PACE-L : Möglichkeiten und Grenzen am Beispiel einer Senkung der Sozialabgaben

  • Feil, Michael

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Zika, Gerd

    ()

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

"Der Beitrag stellt das numerische allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell PACE-L (Policy Analysis based on Computable Equilibrium, Labour market module) in kompakter Form vor. Dieses quantitative gesamtwirtschaftliche Modell wird am IAB zur Beurteilung von beschäftigungsrelevanten Reformvorschlägen, insbesondere im Bereich der Steuerpolitik und Sozialen Sicherung, verwendet. Der Beitrag beschreibt erstens die PACE-L zugedachte Rolle im Rahmen der IAB-Forschung. Zweitens diskutiert er den dem Modell zugrunde liegenden Gleichgewichtsbegriff. Wir versuchen dabei zu verdeutlichen, warum ein Gleichgewichtsmodell zur Untersuchung von Arbeitslosigkeit und damit verbundenen Fragestellungen geeignet ist. Drittens präsentieren wir einige Simulationsrechnungen mit einer neueren Version von PACE-L. Schließlich vergleichen wir ausgewählte Ergebnisse von PACE-L mit zwei makroökonometrischen Modellen, dem IAB/ INFORGE- und dem IAB/RWI-Modell. Der Modellvergleich zeigt, dass die längerfristigen Wirkungen verminderter Sozialabgaben von allen drei Modellen insgesamt recht ähnlich quantifiziert werden. Allerdings deuten insbesondere die Ergebnisse mit dem IAB/INFORGE-Modell darauf hin, dass sich die kurzfristigen Effekte einer solchen Politik von den längerfristigen unterscheiden können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB-Forschungsbericht with number 200517.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 23 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:200517
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