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Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • James Cloyne
  • Joseba Martinez
  • Haroon Mumtaz
  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

The answer is "yes" for personal income taxes but "no" for corporate income taxes. Using narrative-identified US federal tax changes post-World War II and disaggregated sectoral data on consumer and producer prices, we show that higher average personal income tax rates lower prices across a broad range of sectors, but higher average corporate tax rates do not. There is also significant sectoral heterogeneity in the size of the effects. Finally, only personal tax increases lower inflation expectations, while corporate tax increases lead to persistent declines in stock prices. Our results are consistent with personal taxes affecting aggregate demand and corporate taxes persistently affecting supply conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 377-381, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:377-81
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231070
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
    3. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jo, Yoon Joo & Klopack, Ben, 2025. "Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. David, Antonio C. & Pienknagura, Samuel & Yépez, Juan F., 2025. "Can fiscal consolidations announcements help anchor inflation expectations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Prodromos Prodromidis, 2024. "Causes of the Recent Inflation in Greece and Suggestions for the Future," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 22(1), pages 31-46.
    5. Luca Fornaro, 2025. "Fiscal Stimulus with Supply Constraints," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(3), pages 708-732, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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