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Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rate in Emerging Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Soyoung Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • Kuntae Lim

    (Bank of Korea)

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate in six emerging countries (Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia). VAR models are used, wherein sign restrictions on impulse responses are imposed to identify monetary policy shocks. The empirical model reflects the small open emerging economy features. The estimation period is the recent period in which these countries adopted inflation targeting and more flexible exchange rate regimes based on the experience of advanced countries. The main findings are as follows. First, various puzzles such as the ¡°exchange rate puzzle,¡± ¡°delayed overshooting puzzle,¡± and ¡°forward discount bias puzzle¡± are frequently found in these countries. Second, more severe puzzles are found in these emerging countries than in small open advanced countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim & Kuntae Lim, 2016. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rate in Emerging Countries," Working Papers 192016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:192016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Kim, Soyoung, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy, and Delayed Overshooting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 775-782, August.
    6. Seong-Hoon Kim & Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2014. "Delayed Overshooting: It’s an 80s Puzzle," CDMA Working Paper Series 201410, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    8. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    10. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    11. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    12. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    13. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    14. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    15. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: Puzzling Evidence from the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 95-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    18. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Soyoung Kim, 2014. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Exchange Rate in the Republic of Korea: Capital Flows in Stock and Bond Markets," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(1), pages 121-135, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; Monetary Policy Shocks; Exchange Rate; UIP Condition; Delayed Overshooting;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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