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The effect of news shocks and monetary policy

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  • Gambetti, Luca
  • Korobilis, Dimitris
  • Tsoukalas, John D.
  • Zanetti, Francesco

Abstract

A VAR model estimated on U.S. data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news TFP shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and broadly decline in the post-1980s. Corporate bond spreads decline significantly, and durable spending rises significantly in the post-1980 period while the opposite short-run response is observed in the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the Federal Reserve has adopted a restrictive stance before the 1980s with the goal of retaining control over inflation while adopting a neutral/accommodative stance in the post-1980 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Gambetti, Luca & Korobilis, Dimitris & Tsoukalas, John D. & Zanetti, Francesco, 2017. "The effect of news shocks and monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86145, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86145
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/86145/
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    3. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2018. "Towards Technology-News-Driven Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 360, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Rick Van der Ploeg & Fidel Perez-Sebastian & Ohad Raveh, 2019. "Oil Discoveries and Protectionism," Economics Series Working Papers 895, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke & Kristina Bluwstein, 2018. "When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 1823, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    7. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Serpieri, Carolina, 2018. "Comparing Central Europe and the Baltic macro-economies: A Bayesian approach," EconStor Preprints 175242, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News shocks; Business cycles; VAR models; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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