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Health care policy uncertainty and state-level employment

Author

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  • Nopphol Witvorapong

    (Chulalongkorn University)

  • Chak Hung Jack Cheng

    (University of South Carolina Upstate)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of health care policy uncertainty (HCPU) on aggregate- and state-level employment in the USA. Using quarterly data during 1985Q1–2021Q4, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that HCPU has adverse effects on both aggregate- and state-level employment. The effects at the state level are heterogeneous in terms of both the magnitude and the impact persistence, lasting up to 5 quarters. The heterogeneity can be explained by state-specific structural factors, most notably the right-to-work legislation. The study suggests that uncertainty in health care policies has an economic cost that may be partially preventable.

Suggested Citation

  • Nopphol Witvorapong & Chak Hung Jack Cheng, 2024. "Health care policy uncertainty and state-level employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2501-2532, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:66:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02532-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02532-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health care policy uncertainty; Health policy; Employment; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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