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Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy

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  • Li, Li
  • Tang, Yao
  • Xiang, Jingjie

Abstract

This paper proposes a measure of China's monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) based on a Bayesian MCMC estimation procedure, investigates the economic impact of MPU, and outlines the impact channels. Empirical findings suggest that MPU depresses China's economy via higher credit risk and lower economic growth. Moreover, the decrease in output is amplified and made more persistent when the economy is simultaneously exposed to higher credit risk. Because China has experienced massive credit expansion over the past decades, the economy is currently more vulnerable to the increase in MPU than it ever was.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Li & Tang, Yao & Xiang, Jingjie, 2020. "Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:44:y:2020:i:c:s1566014119306077
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2020.100714
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiang, Jingjie & Li, Li, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1025-1044.
    2. Yan Jiang & Yaping Xu & Shengsheng Li, 2022. "How Does Monetary Policy Uncertainty Influence Firms’ Dynamic Adjustment of Capital Structure," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    3. Chong-Chuo Chang & Kuen-Shiou Yang, 2021. "Loose monetary policy and firm uncertainty," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-27, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy uncertainty; Economic fluctuation; Credit risk; Bayesian MCMC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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