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The Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing in the United States for Russian Economy. Macroeconometric Analysis

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  • Skrypnik, D.

    (Russian Academy of Sciences - Institute of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper reviews recent episodes of quantitative easing in the United States and associated internal and external transmission mechanisms. On the basis of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) specific features of transmission for the Russian economy are revealed. The U.S. active balance monetary policy maintains oil prices at a high level, which allows Russian economy to grow at relatively high rate. However, if current economic policy in Russia unchanged, unchanged it conserves further existing model of economic growth making it unstable to external shocks and ineffective in the long-run. Thus, cancellation of the U.S. quantitative easing will cause sharp fall (severe recession) in growth rate of the Russian economy, slow recovery and only a very gradual improvement in the structure of production.

Suggested Citation

  • Skrypnik, D., 2014. "The Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing in the United States for Russian Economy. Macroeconometric Analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 74-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2014:i:22:p:74-101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative easing; spillovers effects; economic policy; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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