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What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen

Abstract

This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on 1,000 regression trees that are constructed based on six key macroeconomic variables. This agnostic, purely data driven method delivers (relatively) good outcome prediction performance. Out of sample root mean square errors (RMSE) systematically beat even the in-sample benchmark econometric models, with a 28% RMSE reduction relative to a naïve AR(1) model and a 8% RMSE reduction relative to OLS. Overall, the results highlight the role of expectations for inflation outcomes in advanced economies, even though their importance appears to have declined somewhat during the last 10 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2021. "What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?," BIS Working Papers 980, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:980
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    Cited by:

    1. Адилханова Зарина // Adilkhanova Zarina & Ержан Ислам // Yerzhan Islam, 2024. "Система селективно - комбинированного прогноза инфляции (SSCIF)// Selective-Combined Inflation Forecasting System," Working Papers #2024-13, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    2. Sona Benecka, 2025. "Forecasting Disaggregated Producer Prices: A Fusion of Machine Learning and Econometric Techniques," Working Papers 2025/2, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Filip Blaha & Jan Botka & Josef Sveda & Ales Michl, 2026. "AI-Based Forecasting of Czech Inflation: Quantile Regression Forests with Dynamic Weights," Working Papers 2026/09, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2023. "gingado: a machine learning library focused on economics and finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking: applications and tools, volume 59, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Araujo, Gustavo Silva & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2023. "Machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Brazil: New contenders versus classical models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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