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Measuring The Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks: A Bayesian Favar Approach With Sign Restriction

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Uhlig

    (University of Chicago)

  • Pooyan Amir Ahmadi

    (Goethe University)

Abstract

We estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks in a Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregression (BFAVAR). We propose a novel identication strategy of imposing sign restrictions directly on the impulse responses of large sets of variables. The novel feature and key strength of our approach is the additional "bite" due to the differences in factor loadings across sets of time series representing, say, "prices" or "output". Furthermore, our procedure does not require a structural interpretation of the factors themselves or adding observables to the list of factors. We impose the conventional wisdom regarding the responses of prices, monetary aggregates, spreads and interest rates. Our results are robust across different subsamples and avoid anomalies arising in Cholesky identications.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Uhlig & Pooyan Amir Ahmadi, 2012. "Measuring The Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks: A Bayesian Favar Approach With Sign Restriction," 2012 Meeting Papers 1060, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 381-419.
    2. Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2009. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 7546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Gobbi & Tim Willems, 2011. "Identifying US Monetary Policy Shocks through Sign Restrictions in Dollarized Countries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-145/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Afanasyeva, Elena & Guentner, Jochen, 2014. "Bank Risk Taking, Credit Booms and Monetary Policy," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100436, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Elena Afanasyeva & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Lending Standards, Credit Booms and Monetary Policy," Economics working papers 2014-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Dées, Stéphane & Güntner, Jochen, 2014. "The international dimension of confidence shocks," Working Paper Series 1669, European Central Bank.
    5. Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De Nicolo, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks; Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 12/58, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. James H. Stock, 2010. "The Other Transformation in Econometric Practice: Robust Tools for Inference," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, pages 83-94.
    8. César Carrera & Fernando Pérez Forero & Nelson Ramírez-Rondán, 2015. "Effects of U.S. Quantitative Easing on Latin American Economies," Working Papers 2015-35, Peruvian Economic Association.
    9. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner, 2015. "How do Individual Sectors Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? A Structural Dynamic Factor Approach Applied to Swiss Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(III), pages 167-225, September.
    10. Harald Uhlig, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 141-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Vega, Marco, 2014. "The Dynamic Effects of Interest Rates and Reserve Requirements," Working Papers 2014-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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