IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ccb/jrpapr/1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Haroon Mumtaz
  • Alexandra Solovyeva
  • Elena Vasilieva

Abstract

We examine the importance of macroeconomic effects of changes in asset prices and credit aggregates for the Russian economy. We show that the amplitude of the fluctuations of asset prices and lending was exceptionally large in 2006-2009. This implies that the asset price and the lending channel may be significant for Russia. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with steady state priors and sign restrictions on impulse response functions. Our results suggest that an asset price bust and a credit squeeze have accentuated the impact of financial crisis on the real economy.Â

Suggested Citation

  • Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:ccb:jrpapr:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Roland Beck & Annette Kamps & Elitza Mileva, 2007. "Long-term growth prospects for the Russian economy," Occasional Paper Series 58, European Central Bank.
    3. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 662, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    5. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
    7. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    2. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    5. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 46-73, January.
    2. Salmsnov, Oleg & Babina, Natalia & Koba, Ekaterina & Koba, Ekaterina & Lopatina, Olga, 2017. "Efficiency of Monetary Policy Mechanisms Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis in the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 112276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2017.
    3. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
    4. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    5. Salmanov, Oleg & Zaernjuk, Victor & Lopatina, Olga & Drachena, Irina & Vikulina, Evgeniya, 2016. "Investigating the Impact of Monetary Policy using the Vector Autoregression Method," MPRA Paper 112280, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2016.
    6. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    7. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    8. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    9. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
    11. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
    12. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    16. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    17. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "US financial shocks and the distribution of income and consumption in the UK," Working Papers 845, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    19. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Forecasting large datasets with Bayesian reduced rank multivariate models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 735-761, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ccb:jrpapr:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maria Brady (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ccbgvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.