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Michael T. Owyang

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Policy during high unemployment periods: still a bad idea?
      by sebastianfleitas in NEP-HIS blog on 2013-03-04 19:37:19

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 129-134, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data (AER 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2023. "Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models," Working Papers 2023-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Aug 2023.

    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.

  2. Kathryn Bokun & Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications," Working Papers 2020-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Aug 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Bastianin, Andrea & Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks across U.S. States," FEEM Working Papers 343506, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Yuan Zhao & Xue Gong & Weiguo Zhang & Weijun Xu, 2025. "Stock return forecasting based on the proxy variables of category factors," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, December.
    3. Robert Lehmann, 2024. "Prognosen des Wirtschaftswachstums der deutschen Bundesländer unter Echtzeitbedingungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(04), pages 03-07, August.
    4. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "READ-GER: Introducing German Real-Time Regional Accounts Data for Revision Analysis and Nowcasting," CESifo Working Paper Series 10315, CESifo.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2023. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10280, CESifo.
    6. Mitchell, James & Shiroff, Taylor, 2025. "Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).

  3. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," Working Papers 2020-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Michaillat, 2025. "Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier," Papers 2506.09664, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Li, Dongxin & Zhang, Li & Li, Lihong, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility with economic policy uncertainty: A smooth transition GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

  4. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2020. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Working Papers 2020-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Aug 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.

  5. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Contagious Switching," Working Papers 2019-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Feb 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Puneet Vatsa, 2021. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 54-66.
    2. Ivan Stankevich, 2025. "Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of G-20 countries GDP with endogenous regime-switching MIDAS models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1383-1410, September.
    3. Su, Xianfang & Chen, Meixia, 2024. "Financial connectedness in BRICS: Quantile effects and BRICS SUMMIT impacts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

  6. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Business Cycles Across Space and Time," Working Papers 2019-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 05 May 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock price crash risk: The mitigating role of ESG performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2533, European Central Bank.
    3. Tianbao Zhou & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2024. "How do financial variables impact public debt growth in China? An empirical study based on Markov regime-switching model," Papers 2407.02183, arXiv.org.
    4. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & Daniel Soques, 2019. "House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement," Working Papers 2019-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Jan 2021.
    5. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Jochen Güntner & Johannes Henßler, 2021. "Ease on the Cannons, Tighten on the Trumpets: Geopolitical Risk and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Economics working papers 2021-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

  7. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2025. "Conditional forecasts in large Bayesian VARs with multiple equality and inequality constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2025. "Large Bayesian VARs for Binary and Censored Variables," Papers 2506.01422, arXiv.org.

  8. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 2018-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 6, March.
    4. Konstantina Manou & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2025. "Does uncertainty matter for household consumption? A mean and a two tails approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(4), pages 909-941, December.
    5. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. ""Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic"," IREA Working Papers 202112, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2021.
    6. Amarila, Mark Reniel M. & Abueg, Luisito C., . "Do Philippine Stocks Catch Coronavirus? Some Econometric Check-up on Pandemic Data, 2021-2022," Journal of Economics, Management & Agricultural Development, Journal of Economics, Management & Agricultural Development (JEMAD), vol. 8(01).
    7. Chikhale, Nisha, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty shocks: Implications of wealth inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
    9. Jerow, Sam & Wolff, Jonathan, 2022. "Fiscal policy and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Grimme, Christian & Henzel, Steffen R., 2024. "Uncertainty and credit conditions: Non-linear evidence from firm-level data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1307-1323.
    11. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    12. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2021. "The Nonlinear Effect of Uncertainty in Portfolio Flows to Mexico," Working Papers 2021-11, Banco de México.
    13. Davide Brignone & Luca Gambetti & Martino Ricci, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England working papers 1118, Bank of England.
    14. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2019 - Deutsche Konjunktur im Sinkflug [German Economy Summer 2019 - German economy falters]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 56, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    15. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    16. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2020. "A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s," Working Papers 2020-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 31 Jan 2022.
    17. Suah, Jing Lian, 2020. "Uncertainty and Exchange Rates: Global Dynamics (Well, I Don't Quite Know Anymore)," MPRA Paper 109087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.
    19. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel, 2020. "Increasing Business Uncertainty and Credit Conditions in Times of Low and High Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8791, CESifo.
    20. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    21. Ojeda-Joya, Jair & Romero, José Vicente, 2023. "Global uncertainty shocks and exchange-rate expectations in Latin America," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

  9. Laura Coroneo & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Working Papers 2018-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 27 Mar 2020.

    Cited by:

    1. Arčabić, Vladimir & Panovska, Irina & Tica, Josip, 2024. "Business cycle synchronization and asymmetry in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Liu, Yuntong & Wei, Yu & Wang, Qian & Liu, Yi, 2022. "International stock market risk contagion during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Iulia LUPU & Adina CRISTE & Anca Dana DRAGU & Teodora Daniela ALBU, 2024. "Volatility Transitions in European Stock Markets: A Clustering-Based Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 65-80, October.
    4. Xiang, XueTing & Lim, Kian-Ping & Ong, Sheue-Li, 2025. "The dynamics and drivers of global market integration: Regional and cultural factors matter," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

  10. Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2017. "Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Working Papers 2017-22, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2024. "Fiscal Space and Policy Response to Financial Crises: Market Access and Deficit Concerns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 323-361, April.
    2. Senekovič Marko & Kavkler Alenka & Bekő Jani, 2019. "Estimation of Government Spending Multiplier in EU Economies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 16-29, March.
    3. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Han, Xu, 2025. "Global identification, estimation and inference of structural impulse response functions in factor models: A unified framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    5. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.

  11. Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2016. "Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2016-8, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Chen, Peng & Miao, Xinru, 2024. "Understanding the role of China's factors in international commodity price fluctuations: A perspective of monetary-fiscal policy interaction," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1464-1483.
    3. Januj Amar Juneja, 2022. "A Computational Analysis of the Tradeoff in the Estimation of Different State Space Specifications of Continuous Time Affine Term Structure Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 173-220, June.
    4. Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2017. "Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Working Papers 2017-22, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Oana Simona Hudea, 2018. "Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, Romania," Manager Journal, Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, vol. 28(1), pages 24-32, December.

  12. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2015-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Apr 2020.

    Cited by:

    1. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Justiniano, Alejandro, 2019. "Forecasting economic activity with mixed frequency BVARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1692-1707.
    2. Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2024. "Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 626-640.
    3. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    5. Motegi, Kaiji & Sadahiro, Akira, 2018. "Sluggish private investment in Japan’s Lost Decade: Mixed frequency vector autoregression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 118-128.
    6. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2026. "Fiscal monitoring with VARs," Working Paper Series 3186, European Central Bank.
    7. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Niko Hauzenberger Massimiliano Marcellino Michael Pfarrhofer Anna Stelzer, 2026. "Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 26265, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Using hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    10. Anna Cole & Julian Kozlowski & Joseph Martorana, 2025. "The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 107(13), pages 1-14, September.
    11. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "Nowcasting Inflation," Working Papers 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2025. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1946-1968, September.
    13. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    14. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
    15. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Berger, Tino & Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Nowcasting the output gap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 18-34.
      • Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the Output Gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Serhii Lupenko & Andrii Horkunenko, 2025. "Stochastic Model and Rhythm-Adaptive Technologies of Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Processes with Cyclic Components," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, May.
    18. Juvonen, Petteri & Lindblad, Annika, 2025. "Nowcasting in real time: Large Bayesian vector autoregression in a test," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2025, Bank of Finland.
    19. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2019. "Assessing Nowcast Accuracy of US GDP Growth in Real Time: The Role of Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2019/01, Latvijas Banka.

  13. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law," Working Papers (Old Series) 1523, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Goto, Eiji & Bürgi, Constantin, 2021. "Sectoral Okun's law and cross-country cyclical differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 91-103.
    2. Pitoňáková, Renáta & Kucharčík, Rudolf & Kabát, Ladislav, 2025. "Is the response of the Slovak labor market asymmetric to output changes?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    3. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2021. "Asymmetry in Okun’s Law Revisited: New evidence on cyclical unemployment–cyclical output trade-off in the Free State Province using NARDL model," MPRA Paper 107126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Roberto Bande & Ángel Martín-Román, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    6. Andrew Keinsley & Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju, 2021. "The Nonlinear Unemployment-Inflation Relationship and the Factors That Define It," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 354-377, June.
    7. Ondřej Dvouletý & Alisa Gordievskaya & David Anthony Procházka, 2018. "Investigating the relationship between entrepreneurship and regional development: case of developing countries," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Kambale Kavese & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "A provincial perspective of nonlinear Okun's law for emerging markets: The case of South Africa," Working Papers 1819, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    9. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    10. Chipeta Chama & Meyer Daniel Francois & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2017. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Growth on Job Creation," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 20-41, August.
    11. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Porras, María Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2017. "Self-employment and Okun’s Law relationship: the Spanish case," MPRA Paper 83292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mindaugas Butkus & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2020. "Does Unemployment Responsiveness to Output Change Depend on Age, Gender, Education, and the Phase of the Business Cycle?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, November.
    14. Arabinda Basistha & Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic, 2017. "The role of spatial GDP spillovers in state-level Okun’s law," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 353-360, October.
    15. Lutho Mbekeni & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "South African unemployment in the post-financial crisis era: What are the determinants?," Working Papers 1903, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised May 2019.
    16. Louail Bilal & Ben Haj Hamida Hayet, 2021. "Asymmetry Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Arab countries: Application of the OKUN Law during 1960-2017," Management, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Zambrano-Monserrate, Manuel A., 2024. "Labor dynamics and unions: An empirical analysis through Okun's Law," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 613-628.
    18. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
    19. Mihai Mutascu & Alexandre Sokic, 2021. "Okun's law in the US: New insights in time and frequency," Post-Print hal-03676246, HAL.
    20. Cuesta, Lizeth, 2020. "Impacto de la política de empleo juvenil en la disminución del desempleo en los países de la Unión Europea, período 2002-2017 [Impact of youth employment policy on the reduction of unemployment in the countries of the European Union, period 2002-2," MPRA Paper 111026, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2021.
    21. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2020. "Formal and statistical aspects of estimating Okun's law at a regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1113-1136, August.
    22. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining deviations from Okun’s law," Working Paper Series 2699, European Central Bank.
    23. Diellza Kukaj, 2018. "Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Western Balkans," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejme_v1_i.
    24. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2018. "The State‐Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1879-1899, December.

  14. Laura E. Jackson & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement," Working Papers 2015-31, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalez Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32148, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Xufeng Jiang & Zelu Jia & Lefei Li & Tianhong Zhao, 2022. "Understanding Housing Prices Using Geographic Big Data: A Case Study in Shenzhen," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Philip Sauré & Andrei Levchenko & Raphael Auer, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," 2017 Meeting Papers 1208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Balatti Mozzanica, Mirco & Kose, Ayhan & Mckinnon, Kate Frances & Palombo, Edoardo & Sugawara, Naotaka & Verduzco Bustos, Guillermo & Vorisek, Dana, 2025. "From Tailwinds to Headwinds : Emerging and Developing Economies in the Twenty-First Century," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11169, The World Bank.
    5. Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir, 2024. "The comovement of bubbles’ responses to monetary policy shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Harrison, James M., 2023. "Exploring 200 years of U.S. commodity market integration: A structural time series model approach," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2022. "One scheme fits all: a central fiscal capacity for the EMU targeting eurozone, national and regional shocks," Working Paper Series 2666, European Central Bank.
    8. Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2024. "International trade fluctuations: Global versus regional factors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 331-358, February.
    9. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    11. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    12. Krzysztof Beck & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Globalization or Regionalization of Stock Markets? the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 317-330, July.
    13. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    14. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2020. "Housing markets, monetary policy, and the international co‐movement of housing bubbles," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 365-375, May.
    15. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    16. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Saban Nazlioglu & Sinem Pinar Gurel & Sevcan Gunes & Tugba Akin & Cagin Karul & Muhsin Kar, 2025. "Inflation co-movement: new insights from quantile factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 431-464, July.
    18. Klarl, Torben, 2018. "Housing is local: Applying a dynamic unobserved factor model for the Dutch housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 79-84.
    19. Guðmundsson, Guðmundur Stefán & Brownlees, Christian, 2021. "Detecting groups in large vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 2-26.
    20. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    21. Shambaugh, Jay C. & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Interest rates across the world: Global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    22. Javier Maldonado & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Accurate Confidence Regions for Principal Components Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1432-1453, December.
    23. Zahid,Hamza, 2023. "Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10402, The World Bank.

  15. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2015. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Working Papers (Old Series) 1524, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Prüser, Jan & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Regional composition of national house price cycles in the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 853, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    4. Lasse Bork & Stig V. Møller & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2020. "A New Index of Housing Sentiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(4), pages 1563-1583, April.
    5. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    6. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    7. Timmermann, Allan & Møller, Stig & Pedersen, Thomas & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2021. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 15875, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    9. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Growth-at-Risk of the United States: Housing Price versus Housing Sentiment or Attention," Working Papers 202401, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor, 2025. "(A)Synchronous Housing Markets of Global Cities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 178-208, August.
    12. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2021. "(A)Synchronous Housing Markets of Global Cities," MPRA Paper 107175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Choi, Chi-Young & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2021. "From banking integration to housing market integration - Evidence from the comovement of U.S. Metropolitan House Prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2018. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6887, CESifo.
    15. Prüser, Jan & Schmidt, Torsten, 2021. "Regional composition of national house price cycles in the US," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2021. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies in the UK," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(4), pages 445-467, November.

  16. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2014. "How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?," Working Papers 2014-19, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ryoichi Okuma, 2018. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Learning-Approach Perspective," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2019. "Shocking aspects of monetary policy on income inequality in the euro area," Working Papers hal-03403233, HAL.
    3. Halberstadt, Arne & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The effect of conventional and unconventional euro area monetary policy on macroeconomic variables," Discussion Papers 49/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 248, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Faia, Ester & Karau, Soeren, 2019. "Systemic Bank Risk and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13456, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    7. José García Revelo & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge, 2025. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," Working papers 1018, Banque de France.
    8. Benjamin K Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2018. "A time series model of interest rates with the effective lower bound," BIS Working Papers 715, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2019. "Evaluating the macroeconomic effects of the ECB s unconventional monetary policies," Working papers 708, Banque de France.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Valentina Massagli & Manuela Pedio, 2021. "Does the Cost of Private Debt Respond to Monetary Policy? Heteroskedasticity-Based Identification in a Model with Regimes," Working Papers 676, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Andrea Colabella, 2019. "Do the ECB’s monetary policies benefit emerging market economies? A GVAR analysis on the crisis and post-crisis period," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1207, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Milan Damjanović & Igor Masten, 2016. "Shadow short rate and monetary policy in the Euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 279-298, May.
    14. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    15. Margarit, Monica-Ionelia, 2022. "CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING THE MOST IMPORTANT CRISIS OF THE 21st CENTURY," Management Strategies Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 55(1), pages 109-116.
    16. Goran Jovičić & Davor Kunovac, 2017. "What is Driving Inflation and GDP in a Small European Economy: The Case of Croatia," Working Papers 49, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    17. Leo Krippner, 2020. "A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 951-962, June.
    18. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    19. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2020. "Income inequality and monetary policy in the Euro Area," Working Papers hal-03389183, HAL.
    20. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13411, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    21. Geun-Young Kim & Hail Park & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies: Breaks, Asymmetries and Fundamentals," Working Papers 2016-1, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

  17. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2014. "Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy," Working Papers 2014-20, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Kocak, Emrah & Bilgili, Faik & Bulut, Umit & Kuskaya, Sevda, 2022. "Is ethanol production responsible for the increase in corn prices?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 689-696.
    2. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    3. Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
    4. Sokbae Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2018. "Factor-Driven Two-Regime Regression," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-14, McMaster University.
    5. Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman & Julia Schaumburg, 2021. "Vector Autoregressions with Dynamic Factor Coefficients and Conditionally Heteroskedastic Errors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-056/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Li, Mengting & Ma, Xiaofu & Jia, Junsheng & Zhu, Chen, 2025. "Risk spillovers between the financial market and macroeconomic sectors under mixed-frequency information: A frequency domain perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    8. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2025. "Impact of financial stress on the REIT market stability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    11. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Cotter, John & Hallam, Mark & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Macro-financial spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Michael Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2022. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    14. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2017. "How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2017/218, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.

  18. Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo DiCecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts," Working Papers 2013-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Dec 2017.

    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    3. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2022. "Evaluating plant managers’ production plans over business cycles: asymmetric loss and rationality," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-29, August.
    4. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
    5. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael W. Mccracken & Michael T. Owyang, 2025. "Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 5-30, February.
    6. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
    7. Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Demetrescu, Matei & Roling, Christoph, 2025. "Testing the Predictive Ability of Possibly Persistent Variables under Asymmetric Loss," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 80-104.
    9. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2023. "Asymmetry and interdependence when evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

  19. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Hie Joo Ahn & Yunjong Eo, 2025. "Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-062r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 16 Dec 2025.
    2. Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    4. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & Terrones, Marco E., 2020. "Global Recessions," MPRA Paper 98608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Oana Simona Hudea, 2018. "Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, Romania," Manager Journal, Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, vol. 28(1), pages 24-32, December.
    7. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2022. "A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 69-99, March.

  20. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Iwata, Yasuharu & Kajita, Yuto & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Time-varying Fiscal Multipliers Identified by Systematic Component: A Bayesian Approach to TVP-SVAR model," MPRA Paper 92631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cl aud, G. & Matthieu Lemoine & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
    3. Syed Hussain & Lin Liu, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Shocks: New Narrative Evidence from Canada," Working Papers 202201, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Legislative Tax Announcements and GDP: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202134, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Lastauskas, Povilas & Stakėnas, Julius, 2020. "Labor market reforms and the monetary policy environment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595.
    7. Vincent Belinga & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2015. "(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2015/114, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," Working Paper Series 2014-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," NBER Working Papers 23074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
    11. Mario Alloza & Pablo Burriel & Javier J. Pérez, 2018. "Fiscal policies in the euro area: revisiting the size of spillovers," Working Papers 1820, Banco de España.
    12. Olivier Gervais, 2019. "How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections," Discussion Papers 2019-6, Bank of Canada.
    13. Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 20533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bill Dupor, 2015. "Local Fiscal Multipliers, Negative Spillovers and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 2015-26, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2022. "A functional classification analysis of government spending multipliers," Working Papers 298, Bank of Greece.
    16. Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," CESifo Working Paper Series 11312, CESifo.
    17. Bill Dupor & Guerrero Rodrigo, 2016. "Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers," Working Papers 2016-4, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Marco Bernardini & Gert Peersman, 2015. "Private Debt Overhang And The Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence For The United States," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/901, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    19. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
    20. John J. Heim, 2016. "Do government stimulus programs have different effects in recessions, or by type of tax or spending program?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1333-1368, December.
    21. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Local projections in unstable environments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    22. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    23. Isabel Busom & Jorge Vélez-Ospina, 2020. "Subsidising Innovation over the Business Cycle," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-09, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    24. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of public expenditure in research and development," Working Papers 64, Birkbeck Centre for Innovation Management Research, revised 29 Mar 2023.
    25. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    26. Mathias Klein, 2017. "Austerity and Private Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1555-1585, October.
    27. Jo, Taewoong & Kang, Jihye & Hur, Joonyoung, 2025. "What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    28. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Ünal, 2023. "Estimating policy-corrected long-term and short-term tax elasticities for the USA, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 465-504, January.
    29. Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes & Born, Benjamin, 2015. "Does austerity pay off?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10425, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2017. "Size Effects of Fiscal Policy and Business Confidence in the Euro Area," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    31. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    32. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Sudden Stops," Working Papers 1712, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    33. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2024. "Fiscal Space and Policy Response to Financial Crises: Market Access and Deficit Concerns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 323-361, April.
    34. Davide Furceri & Jun Ge & Prakash Loungani & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The distributional effects of government spending shocks in developing economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1574-1599, August.
    35. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-6, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    36. György Molnár & Gábor Dániel Soós & Balázs Világi, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 58-85.
    37. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    38. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    39. Urbain Thierry Yogo & Douzounet Mallaye & Gaëlle Tatiana Timba, 2015. "On the Quest of Resource blessing: Re-examining the effect of oil on Income Inequality," Working Papers hal-04141418, HAL.
    40. Sardar, Naafey & Sharma, Shahil, 2022. "Oil prices & stock returns: Modeling the asymmetric effects around the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    41. Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 2014/213, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Julien Albertini & Stéphane Auray & Hafedh Bouakez & Aurélien Eyquem, 2020. "Taking off into the Wind: Unemployment Risk and State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers," Working Papers 2002, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
    44. Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Warmedinger, Thomas & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers and beyond," Occasional Paper Series 162, European Central Bank.
    45. Mencinger, Jernej & Aristovnik, Aleksander & Verbič, Miroslav, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 448-461.
    46. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    47. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  21. Valerie Ramey & Sarah Zubairy & Michael Owyang, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data," 2013 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Iwata, Yasuharu & Kajita, Yuto & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Time-varying Fiscal Multipliers Identified by Systematic Component: A Bayesian Approach to TVP-SVAR model," MPRA Paper 92631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cl aud, G. & Matthieu Lemoine & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Legislative Tax Announcements and GDP: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202134, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Lastauskas, Povilas & Stakėnas, Julius, 2020. "Labor market reforms and the monetary policy environment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595.
    6. Vincent Belinga & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2015. "(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2015/114, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," Working Paper Series 2014-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," NBER Working Papers 23074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
    10. Mario Alloza & Pablo Burriel & Javier J. Pérez, 2018. "Fiscal policies in the euro area: revisiting the size of spillovers," Working Papers 1820, Banco de España.
    11. Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 20533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bill Dupor, 2015. "Local Fiscal Multipliers, Negative Spillovers and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 2015-26, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Bill Dupor & Guerrero Rodrigo, 2016. "Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers," Working Papers 2016-4, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Marco Bernardini & Gert Peersman, 2015. "Private Debt Overhang And The Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence For The United States," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/901, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
    16. John J. Heim, 2016. "Do government stimulus programs have different effects in recessions, or by type of tax or spending program?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1333-1368, December.
    17. Isabel Busom & Jorge Vélez-Ospina, 2020. "Subsidising Innovation over the Business Cycle," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-09, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. Tran Thi Kim Oanh, 2024. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies Interaction in Crisis: An Insight Into Japan," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440241, February.
    19. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    20. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2017. "Size Effects of Fiscal Policy and Business Confidence in the Euro Area," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    21. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Sudden Stops," Working Papers 1712, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    22. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    23. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    24. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
    25. Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    164. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.
    165. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Identification of Sign-Dependency of Impulse Responses," Working Papers 1907, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    166. Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2021. "Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    167. Borsoi, Nicolas & Teles, Vladimir K, 2020. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bad Times: Does the Nature of a Recession Matter?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(1), August.
    168. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2014. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    169. U. Devrim Demirel, 2020. "Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05," Working Papers 56522, Congressional Budget Office.
    170. Jia, Bijie, 2018. "Second Thoughts on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy E ffects in the United States," MPRA Paper 90298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    171. Tsoungui Belinga,Vincent De Paul, 2016. "Effects of fiscal policy shocks in an open economy : evidence from Canada," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7654, The World Bank.
    172. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Stimulus versus Austerity: The Asymmetric Government Spending Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 10584, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    173. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik & Osowski, Thomas, 2015. "Planned fiscal consolidations and growth forecast errors: New panel evidence on fiscal multipliers," Ruhr Economic Papers 569, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    174. Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi, 2020. "Some Amendments to the Algebraic Representation and Empirical Estimation of the Fiscal Multipliers," MPRA Paper 104346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    175. Petrović, Pavle & Arsić, Milojko & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2021. "Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 580-597.
    176. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
    177. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    178. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Panas, 2021. "Investigating government spending multiplier for the US economy: empirical evidence using a triple lasso approach," Working Papers 292, Bank of Greece.
    179. Melosi, Leonardo & Morita, Hiroshi & Rogantini Picco, Anna & Zanetti, Francesco, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    180. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.

  22. Andra C. Ghent & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom?," Working Papers 2012-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Sumit Agarwal & Efraim Benmelech & Nittai Bergman & Amit Seru, 2012. "Did the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) Lead to Risky Lending?," NBER Working Papers 18609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daniel Ringo, 2023. "Mortgage Lending, Default, and the Community Reinvestment Act," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 77-102, February.
    3. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis," NBER Working Papers 18082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Agata M. Lozinskaia & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2016. "Discontinuity in Relative Credit Losses: Evidence from Defaults on Government-Insured Residential Mortgages," HSE Working papers WP BRP 55/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Tyler T. Yang & Jessie Y. Zhang, 2016. "Contagious Real Estate Cycle: Case of the US Subprime Related Crisis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(2), pages 171-196.
    6. Adelino, Manuel & Scott Frame, W. & Gerardi, Kristopher, 2017. "The effect of large investors on asset quality: Evidence from subprime mortgage securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-51.
    7. Rossen Valkanov & Andra Ghent, 2014. "Complexity in Structured Finance: Financial Wizardry or Smoke and Mirrors," 2014 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Lee, Hyojung & Bostic, Raphael W., 2020. "Bank adaptation to neighborhood change: Mortgage lending and the Community Reinvestment Act," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Dan Immergluck, 2015. "A look back: what we now know about the causes of the US mortgage crisis," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 269-285, November.
    10. W. Scott Frame, 2015. "Introduction to Special Issue: Government Involvement in Residential Mortgage Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 807-819, November.
    11. Ronel Elul, 2015. "The government-sponsored enterprises: past and future," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 11-20.
    12. Neil Bhutta, 2014. "The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-91, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Franklin Allen & Xian Gu, 2018. "The Interplay between Regulations and Financial Stability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 233-248, June.
    14. Lei Ding & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2017. "“Don't Know What You Got Till It’s Gone” — The Effects of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) on Mortgage Lending in the Philadelphia Market," Working Papers 17-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Jason Thomas & Robert Order, 2020. "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Risk-Taking and the Option to Change Strategy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 270-307, April.

  23. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Özge Savascin, 2012. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Working Papers 2012-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Wiemann, T., 2018. "Intertemporal Similarity of Economic Time Series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2533, European Central Bank.
    4. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Berger Tino & Hienzsch Sebastian, 2025. "Which Global Cycle? A Stochastic Factor Selection Approach for Global Macro-Financial Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 29(5), pages 541-559.
    6. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2021. "Testing for international business cycles: A multilevel factor model with stochastic factor selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Berger, Tino & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "Global vs. group-specific business cycles: The importance of defining the groups," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 334, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Wang, Zongrun & Zhou, Ling & Mi, Yunlong & Shi, Yong, 2022. "Measuring dynamic pandemic-related policy effects: A time-varying parameter multi-level dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    11. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    12. Philip Hans Franses & Thomas Wiemann, 2020. "Intertemporal Similarity of Economic Time Series: An Application of Dynamic Time Warping," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 59-75, June.
    13. Oh, Dong Hwan & Patton, Andrew J., 2023. "Dynamic factor copula models with estimated cluster assignments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    14. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 97-115.
    16. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Business Cycles across Space and Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 921-952, June.
    17. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    18. Pedro André Cerqueira & Rodrigo Martins, 2025. "The Economy in People’s Minds: are EU Countries Connected?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 1439-1461, November.
    19. Guðmundsson, Guðmundur Stefán & Brownlees, Christian, 2021. "Detecting groups in large vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 2-26.
    20. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2021. "Dynamic Factor Copula Models with Estimated Cluster Assignments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-029r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 06 May 2022.
    21. Sylvia Kaufmann & Markus Pape, 2023. "Bayesian (non-)unique sparse factor modelling," Working Papers 23.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    22. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    23. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    24. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    25. Shambaugh, Jay C. & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Interest rates across the world: Global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    26. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor, 2025. "(A)Synchronous Housing Markets of Global Cities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 178-208, August.
    27. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    28. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2021. "(A)Synchronous Housing Markets of Global Cities," MPRA Paper 107175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    30. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2024. "Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-149, January.
    31. Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell & Daniel Soques, 2022. "The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves," Working Papers 2022-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 24 Oct 2025.
    32. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2023. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 533-555, June.
    33. Vítor Castro & Pedro A. Cerqueira & Rodrigo Martins, 2024. "Is There a Pervasive World Real Credit Cycle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 99-119, February.

  24. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state level data," Working Papers 2012-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Andres Romeu & Salvador Ramallo, 2026. "Probabilistic Classification in Business Cycles Identification Based on Generalized ROC," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 3-21, January.
    2. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fossati Sebastian, 2016. "Dating US business cycles with macro factors," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 529-547, December.
    4. Hie Joo Ahn & Yunjong Eo, 2025. "Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-062r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 16 Dec 2025.
    5. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christian Garciga & James Mitchell, 2025. "Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(13), pages 1-12, November.
    7. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    8. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    9. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    10. Kathryn Bokun & Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications," Working Papers 2020-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Aug 2021.
    11. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
    13. Oguzhan Cepni & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting National Recessions of the United States with State-Level Climate Risks: Evidence from Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 202252, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Ilias Filippou & Christian Garciga & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2024. "Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(08), pages 1-8, April.
    15. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics," Working Papers 16.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    16. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    17. Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    18. Ashton de Silva & Maria Yanotti & Sarah Sinclair & Sveta Angelopoulos, 2023. "Place‐Based Policies and Nowcasting," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 363-370, September.

  25. Andra C. Ghent & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods," Working Papers 2011-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli & Md Taslim Uddin & Alberto Zazzaro, 2023. "Discrimination Of Immigrants In Mortgage Pricing And Approval: Evidence From Italy," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 180, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    2. Jérémie BERTRAND & Laurent WEILL, 2019. "Do Algorithms Discriminate Against African Americans in Lending?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2019-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    3. H. Young Baek & David D. Cho, 2023. "Are Minorities Still Paying Higher Mortgage Interest Rates?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 31-47, May.
    4. Andra C. Ghent & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 820-854, November.
    5. Bartlett, Robert & Morse, Adair & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy, 2022. "Consumer-lending discrimination in the FinTech Era," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 30-56.
    6. Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen & David Hao Zhang, 2020. "Mortgage Prepayment, Race, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 20-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Conklin, James N. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Lambie-Hanson, Lauren, 2025. "Can everyone tap into the housing piggy bank? Racial disparities in access to home equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Bucciol, Alessandro & Papadovasilaki, Dimitra, 2023. "Portfolio decisions and perceived racial discrimination," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Natalya Presman & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2019. "Does Location Matter? Evidence on Differential Mortgage Pricing in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.14, Bank of Israel.
    10. Jordan van Rijn & Shuwei Zeng & Paul Hellman, 2021. "Financial institution objectives and auto loan pricing: Evidence from the survey of consumer finances," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 995-1039, September.
    11. Sewin Chan & Andrew F. Haughwout & Joseph Tracy, 2015. "How mortgage finance affects the urban landscape," Staff Reports 713, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Marsha J. Courchane & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Evidence and Actions on Mortgage Market Disparities: Research, Fair Lending Enforcement and Consumer Protection," Working Papers 2018-052, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    13. Stephen L. Ross & Yuan Wang, 2022. "Mortgage Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures," Working Papers 2022-001, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    14. Matteo Crosignani & Hanh Le, 2023. "Stakeholders’ Aversion to Inequality and Bank Lending to Minorities," Staff Reports 1079, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Robert Bartlett & Adair Morse & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2019. "Consumer-Lending Discrimination in the FinTech Era," NBER Working Papers 25943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Xiaoran Jia & Kiridaran Kanagaretnam, 2025. "Digital Inclusion and Financial Inclusion: Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Lending," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 196(2), pages 345-380, January.
    17. Oberg, Phillip Michael, 2017. "The housing bubble and the evolution of the homeownership gap," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 25-35.
    18. Gupta, Arpit & Hansman, Christopher & Mabille, Pierre, 2025. "Financial constraints and the racial housing gap," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    19. Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He & Yonglin Wang & Qi Zhang, 2023. "Lenders’ pricing strategy: Do neighborhood risks matter?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1011-1047, July.
    20. D Dulani Jayasuriya & Mohamed Ayaz & Michael Williams, 2023. "The use of digital footprints in the US mortgage market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 353-401, March.
    21. Andreas Fuster & Paul Goldsmith‐Pinkham & Tarun Ramadorai & Ansgar Walther, 2022. "Predictably Unequal? The Effects of Machine Learning on Credit Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 5-47, February.
    22. Manthos D. Delis & Panagiotis Papadopoulos, 2019. "Mortgage Lending Discrimination Across the U.S.: New Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 341-368, December.
    23. Lei Zhang & Tammy Leonard, 2021. "External validity of hedonic price estimates: Heterogeneity in the price discount associated with having Black and Hispanic neighbors," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 62-85, January.
    24. Neil Bhutta & Aurel Hizmo, 2020. "Do Minorities Pay More for Mortgages?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Ricardo T. Fernholz & Rory Kramer, 2024. "Racing to Zipf's law: Race and metropolitan population size 1910–2020," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 649-670, June.
    26. Suzuki, Masatomo & Kawai, Kohei & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2022. "Discrimination against the atypical type of tenants in the Tokyo private rental housing market: Evidence from moving-in inspection and rent arrear records," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    27. Hanson, Andrew & Hawley, Zackary & Martin, Hal & Liu, Bo, 2016. "Discrimination in mortgage lending: Evidence from a correspondence experiment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 48-65.
    28. James B. Kau & Lu Fang & Henry J. Munneke, 2019. "An Unintended Consequence of Mortgage Financing Regulation – a Racial Disparity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 549-588, November.
    29. Natalya Bikmetova & Geoffrey K. Turnbull & Velma Zahirovic‐Herbert, 2023. "Ethnicity in housing markets: Buyers, sellers and agents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 196-232, January.

  26. Ruben Hernandez & Michael Owyang & Andra Ghent, 2011. "Race and Subprime Loan Pricing," ERSA conference papers ersa11p923, European Regional Science Association.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Andra C. Ghent & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom?," Working Papers 2012-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  27. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    2. J. Isaac Miller, 2012. "Mixed-frequency Cointegrating Regressions with Parsimonious Distributed Lag Structures," Working Papers 1211, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Morita, Hiroshi & 森田, 裕史, 2019. "Forecasting Public Investment Using Daily Stock Returns," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-88, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Ching Wai Chiu & Bjorn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernan D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Cláudia Duarte, 2014. "Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS regressions," Working Papers w201401, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Pitschner, Stefan, 2013. "Using Financial Markets To Estimate the Macro Effects of Monetary Policy:," Working Paper Series 267, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

  28. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2011. "Where is an oil shock?," Working Papers 2011-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. David C Broadstock & Rui Wang & Dayong Zhang, 2014. "The direct and indirect effects of oil shocks on energy related stocks," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 146, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price and Oil Volatility Index (OVX) on the Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Oil Importing/Exporting Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Monica Dudian & Mihaela Mosora & Cosmin Mosora & Stefanija Birova, 2017. "Oil Price and Economic Resilience. Romania’s Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-8, February.
    4. Abdulmohsen Alfalih, Abdullah & Bel Hadj, Tarek, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on employment in an oil producing country: Do human capital, institutions and oil rents matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Broadstock, David C. & Wang, Rui & Zhang, Dayong, 2014. "Direct and indirect oil shocks and their impacts upon energy related stocks," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 451-467.
    6. Arlan Brucal & Michael J. Roberts, 2018. "Not All Regions Are Alike: Evaluating the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Local and Aggregate Economies," Working Papers 2018-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    7. Laura Cueppers & Dieter Smeets, 2015. "How Do Oil Price Changes Affect German Stock Returns?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 321-334.
    8. Alexeev, Michael & Chih, Yao-Yu, 2021. "Energy price shocks and economic growth in the US: A state-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Kyung-Jin Boo, 2015. "Sustainable Energy Development in Nigeria: Overcoming Energy Poverty," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 580-597.
    11. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, March.
    12. Shekar Shetty & Zahid Iqbal & Mansour Alshamali, 2013. "Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity in Texas Cities," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 371-383, December.
    13. Vipin Arora & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Shuping Shi, 2011. "Testing for Explosive Behaviour in Relative Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy," Monash Economics Working Papers 37-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Husaini Said & Evangelos Giouvris, 2019. "Oil, the Baltic Dry index, market (il)liquidity and business cycles: evidence from net oil-exporting/oil-importing countries," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(4), pages 349-416, December.
    15. Karaki, Mohamad, 2017. "Asymmetries in the Responses of Regional Job Flows to Oil Price Shocks," MPRA Paper 89796, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Aug 2017.

  29. Kristie M. Engemann & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence," Working Papers 2010-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Jochen Güntner & Katharina Linsbauer, 2016. "The effects of oil supply and demand shocks on U.S. consumer Sentiment," Economics working papers 2016-14, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 79-87.
    3. Gross, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
    4. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    5. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2019. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Nigeria: Some Insights from an Estimated DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
    7. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2020. "On the Link between Oil Price and House Prices in the U.S.: Asymmetric Evidence from State Level Data," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 65-106.
    9. Juncal Cunado & Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2015. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies," Staff Working Papers 15-23, Bank of Canada.
    10. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Daniel, Betty & Hafner, Christian & Manner, Hans & Simar, Leopold, 2017. "Asymmetries in Business Cycles and the Role of Oil Prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2017010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    12. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Audi, Mohamed & Ouled Ahmed Ben Ali, Raja, 2015. "Revising empirical linkages between direction of Canadian stock price index movement and Oil supply and demand shocks: Artificial neural network and support vector machines approaches," MPRA Paper 66029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77, April.
    15. Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov, 2018. "Pricing in Oil Market and Using Probit Model for Analysis of Stock Market Effects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 69-73.
    16. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?," Post-Print hal-01511915, HAL.
    17. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(2), pages 133-170, April.
    18. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "The Effects of Disaggregate Oil Shocks on Aggregate Expected Skewness of the United States," Working Papers 202302, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    21. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    22. Trabelsi, Nader, 2017. "Asymmetric tail dependence between oil price shocks and sectors of Saudi Arabia System," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 26-41.
    23. Cunado, Juncal & Jo, Soojin & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2015. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 867-879.
    24. Luiggi Donayre & Neil A. Wilmot, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 167-182.
    25. Engemann, Kristie & Owyang, Michael T. & Wall, Howard J., 2011. "Where is an oil shock?," MPRA Paper 31383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Anaya Longaric, Pablo & Kostakis, Vasileios & Parisi, Laura & Vinci, Francesca, 2025. "Oil shocks and firm investment on the two sides of the Atlantic," Working Paper Series 3116, European Central Bank.
    27. Andrea Gatto & Francesco Busato, 2019. "Defining, measuring and ranking energy vulnerability," CREATES Research Papers 2019-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    28. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Nonlinearities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 16186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    30. Soma Patra, 2022. "Oil price shocks, firm entry and exit in a heterogeneous firm model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 349-378, February.
    31. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
    32. Nima Ebrahimi & Craig Pirrong, 2020. "Oil jump risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1282-1311, August.
    33. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Bello, Ajide Kazeem & Agboola, Yusuf H., 2020. "A new insight into oil price-inflation nexus," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    34. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2017. "Volatility of commodity futures prices and market-implied inflation expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 133-141.
    35. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HarzAllah, AMIRA, 2024. "Effet du ROP, RIP, et R sur RSP: Symétrie ou Asymétrie? Cas des pays exportateurs et importateurs de pétrole [ROP, RIP, and R effects on RSP, symmetric or asymmetric? case of oil exporter and importer countries]," MPRA Paper 120938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2025. "Effects of oil shocks on global securitized real estate markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    37. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Marco Terrones, 2013. "Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?," IMF Working Papers 2013/203, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Hong Thai Le & Marta Disegna, 2018. "Responses of macroeconomy and stock markets to structural oil price shocks: New evidence from Asian oil refinery," BAFES Working Papers BAFES25, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    39. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Saidi, Youssef, 2015. "Oil supply and demand shocks and stock price: Evidence for some OECD countries," MPRA Paper 63556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Nermeen Harb & Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. Abdelsalam, 2019. "Effect Of Oil Prices On Stock Markets: Evidence From New Generation Of Star Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 466-482, July.
    41. Alexey Mikhaylov, 2019. "Oil and Gas Budget Revenues in Russia after Crisis in 2015," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 375-380.
    42. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2011. "Speculation in the oil market," Working Papers 2011-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    43. Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 21-39.
    44. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Khraief, Naceur, 2014. "Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    45. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers halshs-02549044, HAL.

  30. Michael J. Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Aug 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Lixiong Yang & Chingnun Lee & I‐Po Chen, 2021. "Threshold model with a time‐varying threshold based on Fourier approximation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 406-430, July.
    2. Zhu, Yanli & Chen, Haiqiang, 2017. "The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 522-535.

  31. Riccardo DiCecio & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain," Working Papers 2010-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2533, European Central Bank.
    2. Boss, Konstantin & Testa, Alessandra, 2025. "What goes around comes around: The US climate-economic cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Liyu Dou & Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik, 2023. "Max-Share Misidentification," Working Paper 25-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "The identification of dominant macroeconomic drivers: coping with confounding shocks," Working Paper Series 2534, European Central Bank.
    5. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Lovcha, Yuliya & Pérez Laborda, Àlex, 2016. "The Variance-Frequency Decomposition as an Instrument for VAR Identification: an Application to Technology Shocks," Working Papers 2072/261537, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    8. Guay, Alain & Pelgrin, Florian, 2023. "Structural VAR models in the Frequency Domain," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).

  32. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," Working Papers 2010-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    3. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    4. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    5. Scott W Hegerty, 2015. "Dollar depreciations and monthly local employment in three Midwestern states: Evidence from time-series and cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 291-297.

  33. Riccardo DiCecio & Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2010. "A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock," Working Papers 2005-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Grzegorz Wesołowski & Oleg Gurshev, 2025. "US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle," Working Papers 2025-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2021. "Policy errors and business cycle fluctuations: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 176-198.
    3. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2018. "Towards Technology-News-Driven Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 360, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Yangyang Ji, 2026. "Are positive technology shocks expansionary at the zero lower bound?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 1-42, February.
    5. Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Tony Yates, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    6. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
    7. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    8. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Valentin Kecht & Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The Diffusion of Technological Progress in ICT," CESifo Working Paper Series 8790, CESifo.
    9. Olivier CARDI & Romain RESTOUT, 2023. "Why Hours Worked Decline Less After Technology Shocks?," Working Papers of BETA 2023-30, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What Moves Treasury Yields?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15978, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Patrick Feve, 2016. "Sentiments in SVARs," 2016 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Andre Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2013. "Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations: comment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
    15. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2533, European Central Bank.
    17. Karamysheva, Madina & Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "Do we reject restrictions identifying fiscal shocks? identification based on non-Gaussian innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Ryan Chahrour & Sanjay K. Chugh & Tristan Potter, 2023. "Anticipated productivity and the labor market," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), pages 897-934, July.
    19. Luisito Bertinelli & Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2021. "Labor Market Effects of Technology Shocks Biased Toward the Traded Sector," DEM Discussion Paper Series 21-15, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    20. Belke, Ansgar & Elstner, Steffen & Rujin, Svetlana, 2020. "Growth prospects and the trade balance in advanced economies," Ruhr Economic Papers 827, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, revised 2020.
    21. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    22. Hashmat Khan & Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Maya M. Papineau, 2015. "Carbon Emissions and Business Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 15-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 10 Jan 2019.
    23. Oscar Jaulin & Andrey Ramos, 2025. "Becoming Green: Decomposing the Macroeconomic Effects of Green Technology News Shocks," Papers 2507.18386, arXiv.org.
    24. Maria Bolboaca & Sarah Fischer, 2019. "Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence," Working Papers 19.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    25. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    26. Christoph Gortz & John Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers 21-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    27. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John D., 2018. "Sectoral TFP news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 31-36.
    28. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    29. Keagile Lesame & Richard Kima, "undated". "Macroeconomic effects of lowering South Africa’s inflation target: An SVAR analysis," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2025:i::id:218, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    30. Herrera, Luis & Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Learning from news," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    31. José-Elías Gallegos, 2023. "Inflation persistence, noisy information and the Phillips curve," Working Papers 2309, Banco de España.
    32. Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2025. "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 395-410, June.
    33. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    34. Christoph Görtz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, "undated". "What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs," Carleton Economic Papers 19-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    35. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotić, 2020. "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Chia‐Yi Yen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2020. "Understanding The Macroeconomic Impact Of Illiquidity Shocks In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1245-1278, July.
    37. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Francesco Zanetti & Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 838, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    39. Raveh, Ohad & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2024. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary? The Role of Natural Resources," MPRA Paper 120355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "News and Labor Market Dynamics in the Data and in Matching Models," Economics Series Working Papers 699, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    41. Toshihiro OKUBO & Alexander F. WAGNER & Kazuo YAMADA, 2017. "Does Foreign Ownership Explain Company Export and Innovation Decisions? Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 17099, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    42. Alina Barnett & Ryland Thomas, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    43. Morita, Hiroshi, 2020. "Fiscal multipliers in the most aged country: Empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-100, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    44. Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 225-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke & Kristina Bluwstein, 2018. "When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 1823, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    46. Liyu Dou & Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik, 2023. "Max-Share Misidentification," Working Paper 25-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    47. Masahiko Shibamoto, 2023. "Inflation, Business Cycle, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Inflationary Pressure," Discussion Paper Series DP2023-04, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    48. Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2013. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 476, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    49. Alvaro Fernandez-Gallardo & Ivan Paya, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy in the Euro Area," Working Papers 307121127, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    50. Lovcha, Yuliya & Pérez Laborda, Alejandro, 2016. "Frequency-Domain Estimation as an Alternative to Pre-Filtering External Cycles in Structural VAR Analysis," Working Papers 2072/290743, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    51. Moura, Alban, 2021. "Are neutral and investment-specific technology shocks correlated?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    52. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    53. Angeletos, George-Marios & Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2020. "Business Cycle Anatomy," TSE Working Papers 20-1065, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised 10 Jun 2026.
    54. Francesco Fusari & Joe Marlow & Alessio Volpicella, 2024. "Estimation and Inference of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Set-Identified SVARs," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0424, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    55. Hafedh BOUAKEZ & Laurent KEMOE, 2017. "News Shocks, Business Cycles, and the Disinflation Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche 05-2017, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    56. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," NBER Working Papers 11694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Thomas Drechsel, 2018. "Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2018 Papers pdr141, Job Market Papers.
    58. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2018. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1240, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    59. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    60. Wemy, Edouard, 2021. "Capital-labor substitution elasticity: A simulated method of moments approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 14-44.
    61. Jamil Sayeed, 2020. "Identifying Key Macroeconomic Shocks to Canadian GDP," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2020/11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    62. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "The identification of dominant macroeconomic drivers: coping with confounding shocks," Working Paper Series 2534, European Central Bank.
    63. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2023. "Rational inattention and the business cycle effects of productivity and news shocks," Working Paper Series 2827, European Central Bank.
    64. Steffen Elstner & Lars P. Feld & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2018. "The German Productivity Paradox - Facts and Explanations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7231, CESifo.
    65. Rüdiger Bachmann & Eric R. Sims, 2011. "Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. MORITA, Hiroshi, 2024. "New Approach to Estimating the Productivity of Public Capital : Evidence from 22 OECD Countries," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-141, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    67. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Farah, Quazi Fidia, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of news about innovations of information technology," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    68. Härtl, Tilmann, 2022. "Identifying Proxy VARs with Restrictions on the Forecast Error Variance," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264071, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    69. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    83. Michal Koles'ar & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller, 2024. "Dynamic Causal Effects in a Nonlinear World: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," Papers 2411.10415, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
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    99. Jamil Sayeed & Md. Deen Islam, 2025. "How important are commodity terms of trade news shocks for aggregate fluctuations in Canada?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(11), pages 1-25, November.
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    1. Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils, 2011. "Costs of housing crises: International evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1524 [rev.], Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Housing and the Business Cycle in South Africa," Working Papers 201323, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Michael A. Flor & Torben Klarl, 2015. "On the Cyclicity of Regional House Prices: New Evidence for U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas," CESifo Working Paper Series 5471, CESifo.
    4. Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2021. "International Macroeconomic Aspect of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Yousung Park & Tae Yeon Kwon, 2025. "Ensemble with Divisive Bagging for Feature Selection in Big Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(2), pages 1321-1354, August.
    6. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Nam, Gooan & Rizi, Majid Haghani, 2022. "The local employment effect of house prices: Evidence from U.S. States," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    10. Kuang-Liang Chang & Ming-Hui Yen, 2014. "The magnitude and significance of macroeconomic variables in explaining regional housing fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 828-841.
    11. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    12. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    13. Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Forecasting Economic Growth: Evidence from housing, banking, and credit conditions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 936-958, December.
    14. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    15. Christophe Andre & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2011. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate? Evidence from OECD Countries using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Working Papers 201118, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Uzuner, Gizem & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 114-126.
    19. Xin Sheng & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2020. "House Price Synchronization across the US States: The Role of Structural Oil Shocks," Working Papers 202076, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Arias, Maria A. & Gascon, Charles S. & Rapach, David E., 2016. "Metro business cycles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 90-108.
    21. Tsang, Chun-Kei & Wong, Wing-Keung & Horowitz, Ira, 2016. "Arbitrage Opportunities, Efficiency, and the Role of Risk Preferences in the Hong Kong Property Market," MPRA Paper 74347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. David Agorastos & Rowena Gray & Ronan Lyons & Allison Shertzer, 2024. "The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006," Working Papers 24-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    23. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Christian Pierdzioch & Afees A. Salisu, 2020. "Machine Learning Predictions of Housing Market Synchronization across US States: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 202077, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    24. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    25. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    26. Doo Won Bang & HyuckShin Kwon, 2022. "Policy Impact Analysis of Housing Policies Using Housing Cycles," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    27. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    28. MeiChi Huang, 2021. "Regime switches and permanent changes in impacts of housing risk factors on MSA‐level housing returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 310-342, January.
    29. Cinquegrana, Giuseppe, 2011. "The dynamics of the housing market prices and the business cycle: a VAR analysis for the european monetary union," MPRA Paper 39875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González-Martínez, 2015. "Residential Construction Activity in OECD Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(4), pages 451-474, July.
    31. Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, March.
    32. Chi-Young Choi & Soojin Jo, 2020. "How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities," Globalization Institute Working Papers 398, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    33. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 201226, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    34. MeiChi Huang, 2019. "Risk diversification gains from metropolitan housing assets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 453-481, October.
    35. Jan Bruha & Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2017. "House Prices and Household Consumption: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2017/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    36. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
    37. Xu Guo & Xuejun Jiang & Wing-Keung Wong, 2017. "Stochastic Dominance and Omega Ratio: Measures to Examine Market Efficiency, Arbitrage Opportunity, and Anomaly," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-16, October.
    38. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    39. Klarl, Torben, 2018. "Housing is local: Applying a dynamic unobserved factor model for the Dutch housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 79-84.
    40. Sheng Guo & Umut Unal, 2011. "VAR Estimates of the Housing and Stock Wealth Effects: Cross-country Evidence," Working Papers 1103, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    41. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    42. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    43. MeiChi Huang & LinYing Yeh, 2015. "Should the Fed take extra action for the recent housing bubble? Evidence from asymmetric transitory shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 762-781, October.
    44. Bilgi Yilmaz & Ralf Korn & A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel, 2023. "The Impact of Large Investors on the Portfolio Optimization of Single-Family Houses in Housing Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 855-873, February.
    45. Marcus T. Allen & Jessica Rutherford & Ronald Rutherford & Abdullah Yavas, 2018. "Impact of Investors in Distressed Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 622-652, May.
    46. Andra Ghent, 2012. "Infrequent Housing Adjustment, Limited Participation, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 931-955, August.
    47. Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "House prices and business cycles: The case of the UK," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 131-146, June.
    48. Torben Klarl, 2016. "The nexus between housing and GDP re-visited: A wavelet coherence view on housing and GDP for the U.S," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 704-720.
    49. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    50. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    51. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    52. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Assessing the Effects of Housing Market Shocks on Output: The Case of South Africa," MPRA Paper 69610, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2016.
    53. MeiChi Huang, 2020. "A threshold unobserved components model of housing bubbles: timings and effectiveness of monetary policies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 887-908, August.
    54. Shangfa Hou & Jiaying Wang & Degui Zhu, 2022. "Has the Newly Imposed Property Tax Controlled Housing Prices? An Analysis of China’s 2009–2020 Interprovincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-18, November.
    55. Tsang, Chun-Kei & Wong, Wing-Keung & Horowitz, Ira, 2016. "A stochastic-dominance approach to determining the optimal home-size purchase: The case of Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 69175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2015. "Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class," NBER Working Papers 20848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joël, 2015. "The credit-risk implications of home ownership promotion: The effects of public subsidies and adjustable-rate loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 103-120.
    58. Gregory DeCoster & William Strange, 2012. "Developers, Herding, and Overbuilding," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-35, January.
    59. F Chorley & C Liu, 2021. "Does UK social housing affect housing prices and economic growth? An application of the ARDL model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 26(1), pages 21-43, March.
    60. Nneji, Ogonna & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2013. "House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 172-178.
    61. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    62. Chatterjee, Ujjal K. & Zirgulis, Aras & Hüttinger, Maik & French, Joseph J., 2024. "Reassessing the inversion of the Treasury yield curve as a sign of U.S. recessions: Insights from the housing and credit markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    63. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.

  35. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2014. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Ge, Shuyi, 2023. "A revisit to sovereign risk contagion in eurozone with mutual exciting regime-switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
    4. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Wiemann, T., 2018. "Intertemporal Similarity of Economic Time Series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    6. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    8. Chi‐Young Choi & Horag Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2020. "Regional inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from city‐level purchasing power," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 738-774, September.
    9. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Short-run dynamics of income disparities and regional cycle synchronization," Working Papers 2011_09, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper 39168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2017. "The Effect of Bank Supervision on Risk Taking : Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-079, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    18. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2015. "The Great Moderation in historical perspective.Is it that great?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10825, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    19. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
    20. Rokicki, Bartlomiej & Blien, Uwe & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & thi Hong Van, Phan, 2021. "Is there a wage curve with regional real wages? An analysis for the US and Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    21. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    22. Beck, Guenter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price setting," IMFS Working Paper Series 63, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    23. Hie Joo Ahn & Yunjong Eo, 2025. "Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-062r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 16 Dec 2025.
    24. Prüser, Jan & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Regional composition of national house price cycles in the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 853, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    25. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    26. Alessandra Fogli & Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri, 2012. "The Geography of the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 305-331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    28. Christian Garciga & James Mitchell, 2025. "Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(13), pages 1-12, November.
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    31. Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    33. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202151, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    34. Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Gadea, M. Dolores & Bandres, Eduardo, 2018. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," MPRA Paper 83964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Kizys, Renatas & Paltalidis, Nikos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2016. "The quest for banking stability in the euro area: The role of government interventions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 111-133.
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    40. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    41. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August.
    42. Philip Hans Franses & Thomas Wiemann, 2020. "Intertemporal Similarity of Economic Time Series: An Application of Dynamic Time Warping," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 59-75, June.
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    44. Frank Gyimah Sackey & Richard Kofi Asravor & Emmanuel Orkoh & Isaac Ankrah, 2025. "Do petroleum price fluctuations under price deregulation cause business cycles in Ghana?," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 30-42, February.
    45. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Engemann, Kristie & Owyang, Michael T. & Wall, Howard J., 2011. "Where is an oil shock?," MPRA Paper 31383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Business Cycles across Space and Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 921-952, June.
    48. Yeonwoo Rho & Yun Liu & Hie Joo Ahn, 2020. "Revealing Cluster Structures Based on Mixed Sampling Frequencies," Papers 2004.09770, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    49. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    50. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    51. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The propagation of industrial business cycles," Working Papers 1728, Banco de España.
    52. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
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    54. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    55. Shibaev, Sergei S., 2016. "Recession Propagation in Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers and Endogenous Clustering," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274695, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    56. Wall, Howard J., 2011. "The Employment Cycles of Neighboring Cities," MPRA Paper 29410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Vidhi Chhaochharia & George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2020. "Prozac for depressed states? Effect of mood on local economic recessions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 245-274, April.
    58. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    59. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
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    61. Colleen Carey & Stephen H. Shore, 2013. "From the Peaks to the Valleys: Cross-State Evidence on Income Volatility over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 549-562, May.
    62. Oguzhan Cepni & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting National Recessions of the United States with State-Level Climate Risks: Evidence from Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 202252, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    63. Makoto Muto & Tamotsu Onozaki & Yoshitaka Saiki, 2020. "Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan," Papers 2010.08835, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    64. Guðmundsson, Guðmundur Stefán & Brownlees, Christian, 2021. "Detecting groups in large vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 2-26.
    65. Basturk, N. & Paap, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2010. "Financial Development and Convergence Clubs," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-52, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    66. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    67. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Asako, Kazumi & Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko, 2014. "An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 603, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    69. Agnieszka Rabiej & Dominika Sikora & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "How regional business cycles diffuse across space and time: evidence from a Bayesian Markov switching panel of GDP and unemployment in Poland," KAE Working Papers 2023-082, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    70. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2017. "Geographic Inequality of Economic Well-being among U.S. Cities: Evidence from Micro Panel Data," Globalization Institute Working Papers 330, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    71. Sergei S. Shibaev, 2016. "Recession Propagation In Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers And Endogenous Clustering," Working Paper 1369, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    72. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2017. "How to predict financial stress? An assessment of Markov switching models," Working Paper Series 2057, European Central Bank.
    74. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2023. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10280, CESifo.
    75. Beck, Guenter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2009. "On the importance of sectoral shocks for price-setting," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/32, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    76. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    77. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    78. Mitchell, James & Shiroff, Taylor, 2025. "Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    79. William D. Larson & Weihua Zhao, 2020. "Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 808-849, September.
    80. Custodio João, Igor & Lucas, André & Schaumburg, Julia & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    81. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    82. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Özge Savascin, 2012. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Working Papers 2012-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    83. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics," Working Papers 16.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    84. Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
    85. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    86. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    87. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    88. Prüser, Jan & Schmidt, Torsten, 2021. "Regional composition of national house price cycles in the US," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    89. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    90. Jason Brown, 2015. "The response of employment to changes in oil and gas exploration and drilling," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 57-81.
    91. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    92. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 136, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  36. Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2009. "Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis," Working Papers 2009-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Miyazaki, Tomomi & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2024. "Stock market response to public investment under the zero lower bound: Cross-industry evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    3. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh & Huanhuan Guo & Naoto Tanemoto, 2025. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment under the Zero Lower Bound in Japan: An Empirical Investigation with Gender and Regional Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2524, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2020. "Regional resilience in China: The response of the provinces to the growth slowdown," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2019. "The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1260-1279, December.
    6. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    7. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    8. David T. Mitchell & Danny R. Hughes & Noel D. Campbell, 2014. "Are Powerful Majorities Inefficient for Parties and Efficient for Taxpayers?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(1), pages 117-138, January.
    9. Emily Anderson & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1877-1888, December.
    10. Ageliki Anagnostou & Piotr Krajewski & Katarzyna Pilat, 2020. "Regional Specific Idiosyncrasies and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from 47 Regions of the Central and Eastern European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 936-954.
    11. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Regionalne zróżnicowanie oddziaływania wydatków rządowych na zatrudnienie – wnioski z analizy SVAR," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 73-96.
    12. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-9, September.
    13. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    14. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    16. Christopher Biolsi & Bocong Du, 2020. "Do shocks to animal spirits cause output fluctuations?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 331-368, July.
    17. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva, 2016. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Eunseong Ma, 2019. "The Heterogeneous Responses of Consumption between Poor and Rich to Government Spending Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1999-2028, October.
    19. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 86-97, January.
    21. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2018. "The State‐Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1879-1899, December.
    22. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2022. "Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 2206, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

  37. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    2. Sourav Ray & Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy, 2023. "Retail pricing format and rigidity of regular prices," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1173-1203, October.
    3. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August.
    4. Ioannides, Yannis M., 2018. "A DMP model of intercity trade," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 97-111.
    5. Chadi S. Abdallah & William D. Lastrapes, 2013. "Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State‐Level Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 559-590, June.
    6. Rocha, Roberta de Moraes & da Silva, Marcelo Eduardo Alves & Gomes, Sonia Maria Fonseca Pereira Oliveira, 2011. "Por que os estados brasileiros têm reações assimétricas a choques na política monetária?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(4), November.
    7. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva, 2016. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Martin Iseringhausen, 2024. "The housing supply channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 59, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 Feb 2024.

  38. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
    2. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2012. "Forecasting US state-level employment growth: An amalgamation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 315-327.
    4. Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Short-run dynamics of income disparities and regional cycle synchronization," Working Papers 2011_09, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Florian Neumeier, 2015. "Do Businessmen Make Good Governors?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201519, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Millar, Jonathan N. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2016. "Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-89.
    7. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Chad R. Wilkerson, 2009. "Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-24.
    9. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    10. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    11. Casto Montero Kuscevic, 2014. "Okun’s law and urban spillovers in US unemployment," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 719-730, November.
    12. Ioannides, Yannis M., 2018. "A DMP model of intercity trade," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 97-111.
    13. Magnusson, Kristin, 2009. "The Impact of U.S. Regional Business Cycles on Remittances to Latin America," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 710, Stockholm School of Economics.
    14. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Vidhi Chhaochharia & George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2020. "Prozac for depressed states? Effect of mood on local economic recessions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 245-274, April.
    17. Colleen Carey & Stephen H. Shore, 2013. "From the Peaks to the Valleys: Cross-State Evidence on Income Volatility over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 549-562, May.
    18. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Balazs Pager & Zsuzsanna Zsibókb, 2020. "Regionalizing National-Level Growth Projections in the Visegrad Countries – The Issue Of Ex-Post Rescaling," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, JUNE.
    20. Francis W. Ahking, 2019. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles at the States’ Levels," Working papers 2019-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    21. Scott W Hegerty, 2015. "Employment Cycle Co-Movements and Economic Integration Between Milwaukee and Chicago," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2776-2785.
    22. David Matesanz Gomez & Benno Torgler & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2013. "Measuring Global Economic Interdependence: A Hierarchical Network Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1632-1648, December.
    23. Bryan Perry & Kerk L Phillips & David E. Spencer, 2015. "State-Level Variation in the Real Wage Response to Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, May.
    24. Henning, Martin & Enflo, Kerstin & Andersson, Fredrik N.G., 2011. "Trends and cycles in regional economic growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 538-555.
    25. Bienvenido S. Cortes, 2021. "A Model Of Micropolitan Area Sensitivity To The Business Cycle: Evidence From The Plains Region," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 15(1), pages 61-76.
    26. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 136, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    27. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.
    28. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.

  39. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang & Anthony Webb, 2008. "Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.

    Cited by:

    1. Alicia H. Munnell & Mauricio Soto & Robert K. Triest & Natalia A. Zhivan, 2008. "How Much Do State Economics and Other Characteristics Affect Retirement Behavior?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Sep 2008.
    2. Owen Haaga & Richard W. Johnson, 2012. "Social Security Claiming: Trends and Business Cycle Effects," Discussion papers 12-01, Urban Institute, Program on Retirement Policy.

  40. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries," Working Papers 2007-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. R. Jason Faberman, 2008. "Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 08-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Amy Y. Guisinger & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis," Working Papers 2022-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Fabio Méndez & Jared D. Reber & Jeremy Schwartz, 2016. "A New Approach to the Study of Jobless Recoveries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 573-589, October.
    4. Compagnucci, Fabiano & Gentili, Andrea & Valentini, Enzo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2021. "Have jobs and wages stopped rising? Productivity and structural change in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 412-430.
    5. Panovska, Irina & Zhang, Licheng, 2024. "Jobless recoveries and time variation in labor markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Bradley Michael D. & Jansen Dennis W., 2018. "Nonlinear evidence on the existence of jobless recoveries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Alina Barnett & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
    10. Kevin x.d. Huang & Jie Chen & Zhe Li & Jianfei Sun, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Slow Recoveries," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 14-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    11. Michael Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2022. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

  41. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Thomas A. Garrett & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "Personal-bankruptcy cycles," Working Papers 2010-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Learning and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    7. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    8. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202151, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    10. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    12. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Roberto Coronado & James Nordlund & Keith R. Phillips, 2011. "Factors behind the convergence of economic performance across U.S. states," Working Papers 1108, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. J. Christina Wang, 2006. "Financial innovations, idiosyncratic risk, and the joint evolution of real and financial volatilities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    15. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    16. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2009. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 09-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2008. "Productivity, energy prices, and the Great Moderation: a new link," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2021. "Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Presence of Growth Volatility: Multi-Country Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, October.
    20. Engemann, Kristie M. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Whatever Happened To The Business Cycle? A Bayesian Analysis Of Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 709-726, November.
    21. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    22. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.
    23. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Nonfinancial sectors debt and the U.S. great moderation," Research Report 14030-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    24. Abdul Rashid & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan, 2013. "Does Energy Consumption Volatility Affect Real GDP Volatility? An Empirical Analysis for the UK," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 384-394.
    25. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.

  42. Komunjer, Ivana & OWYANG, MICHAEL, 2007. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt81w8m5sf, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Christodoulakis, George, 2020. "Estimating the term structure of commodity market preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1146-1163.
    2. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
    3. Tae-Hwy Lee & Tao Wang, 2023. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments," Working Papers 202307, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    4. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2014. "Interval-valued Time Series: Model Estimation based on Order Statistics," Working Papers 201429, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    5. Gloria Gonzalez‐Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2020. "Prediction regions for interval‐valued time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 373-390, June.
    6. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    7. An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 961-994, Elsevier.
    9. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2015. "Interval-valued Time Series Models: Estimation based on Order Statistics. Exploring the Agriculture Marketing Service Data," Working Papers 201505, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    10. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    11. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
    12. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Papers 1804.08315, arXiv.org.
    13. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2020. "Revealing forecaster's preferences: A Bayesian multivariate loss function approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 412-437, April.
    14. Shovon Sengupta & Sunny Kumar Singh & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Macroeconomic Forecasting for the G7 countries under Uncertainty Shocks," Papers 2510.23347, arXiv.org.
    15. Eunkyu Seong & Seojeong Lee, 2025. "Are the Bank of Korea's Inflation Forecasts Biased Toward the Target?," Papers 2512.16068, arXiv.org.
    16. Fabiana Gomez & David Pacini, 2015. "Counting Biased Forecasters: An Application of Multiple Testing Techniques," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/661, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    17. Alp, Tansel & Demetrescu, Matei, 2010. "Joint forecasts of Dow Jones stocks under general multivariate loss function," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2360-2371, November.
    18. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2022. "Evaluating plant managers’ production plans over business cycles: asymmetric loss and rationality," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-29, August.
    19. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
    20. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    21. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    22. González-Rivera, Gloria & Luo, Yun & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2019. "Prediction regions for interval-valued time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 29054, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    23. Wang, Yiyao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2014. "Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 235-245.
    24. Kexin Ding & Ani L. Katchova, 2024. "Testing the optimality of USDA's WASDE forecasts under unknown loss," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 846-865, October.
    25. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
    26. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    27. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
    28. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    29. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    30. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
    31. Wei Lin & Gloria González‐Rivera, 2019. "Extreme returns and intensity of trading," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1121-1140, November.
    32. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Tsionas, Mike G., 2015. "How are market preferences shaped? The case of sovereign debt of stressed euro-area countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 106-116.
    33. Ulu, Yasemin, 2013. "Multivariate test for forecast rationality under asymmetric loss functions: Recent evidence from MMS survey of inflation–output forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 168-171.
    34. Jingwei Pan, 0000. "Evaluating Correlation Forecasts Under Asymmetric Loss," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413234, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    35. Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2023. "Asymmetry and interdependence when evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    37. Demetrescu, Matei & Roling, Christoph, 2025. "Testing the Predictive Ability of Possibly Persistent Variables under Asymmetric Loss," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 80-104.
    38. Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo Dicecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 205-228, February.
    39. Boskabadi, Elahe, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and forecast bias in the survey of professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 115081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Andrea BASTIANIN & Marzio GALEOTTI & Matteo MANERA, 2011. "Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria," Departmental Working Papers 2011-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    41. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  43. Michelle T. Armesto & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Robert O'Neill, 2010. "A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 149, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  44. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Ge, Shuyi, 2023. "A revisit to sovereign risk contagion in eurozone with mutual exciting regime-switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
    3. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    6. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    7. Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Gadea, M. Dolores & Bandres, Eduardo, 2018. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," MPRA Paper 83964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    9. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    10. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    11. Seuk Wai Phoong & Seuk Yen Phoong & Shi Ling Khek, 2022. "Systematic Literature Review With Bibliometric Analysis on Markov Switching Model: Methods and Applications," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    12. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The propagation of industrial business cycles," Working Papers 1728, Banco de España.
    13. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    14. Shibaev, Sergei S., 2016. "Recession Propagation in Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers and Endogenous Clustering," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274695, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    15. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    17. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Sergei S. Shibaev, 2016. "Recession Propagation In Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers And Endogenous Clustering," Working Paper 1369, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    20. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    21. Belitski Maksim, 2011. "Driving Urban Economic Growth – Evidence from Transition Economies," EERC Working Paper Series 11/10e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    22. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang & Anthony Webb, 2008. "Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
    23. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    24. Yannis M. Ioannides, 2015. "A DMP Model of Intercity Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0808, Department of Economics, Tufts University.

  45. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2006. "Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage," Working Papers 2003-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Rauh & Irina Stefanescu & Stephen Zeldes, 2013. "Cost shifting and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure," NBER Working Papers 10714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2013. "Pension funds and Market Efficiency: A review," Discussion Papers 2013/164, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Rauh, Joshua D. & Stefanescu, Irina & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2020. "Cost saving and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Vafeas, Nikos & Vlittis, Adamos, 2018. "Independent directors and defined benefit pension plan freezes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 505-518.

  46. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    3. Gunji, Hiroshi & Miura, Kazuki & Yuan, Yuan, 2009. "Bank competition and monetary policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-115, January.
    4. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    5. Vadim Napalkov & Anna Novak & Andrey Shulgin, 2021. "Variations in the Effects of a Single Monetary Policy: The Case of Russian Regions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(1), pages 3-45, March.
    6. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    7. Dominguez-Torres, Helena & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2020. "Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 56-76.
    8. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    9. Gefang, Deborah & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2025. "Does one size fit all? The country-specific effects of ECB monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan & Farhan Akbar, 2012. "The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Working Papers hal-04141067, HAL.
    11. Anna Kosior & Michał Rubaszek & Kamil Wierus, 2015. "On the importance of the dual labour market for a country within a monetary union," NBP Working Papers 207, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    12. Matusche, Alexander & Wacks, Johannes, 2023. "Does wealth inequality affect the transmission of monetary policy?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Bruno Ćorić & Lena Malešević Perović & Vladimir Šimić, 2016. "Openness and the Strength of Monetary Transmission: International Evidence," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 66(4), pages 639-659, December.
    14. Pizzuto, Pietro, 2020. "Regional effects of monetary policy in the U.S.: An empirical re-assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    15. Gelfer, Sacha, 2024. "Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan & Farhan Akbar, 2012. "The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    18. Angeliki ANAGNOSTOU & Stephanos PAPADAMOU, 2014. "The Impact Of Monetary Shocks On Regional Output: Evidence From Four South Eurozone Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 39, pages 105-130.
    19. Rocha, Roberta de Moraes & da Silva, Marcelo Eduardo Alves & Gomes, Sonia Maria Fonseca Pereira Oliveira, 2011. "Por que os estados brasileiros têm reações assimétricas a choques na política monetária?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(4), November.
    20. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L. F. Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2014. "The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 240-262, June.
    21. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2025. "Regional effects of monetary policy in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 1671-1698, October.
    22. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    23. Svensson, Emma, 2012. "Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in Sweden," Working Papers 2012:9, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Mar 2013.
    24. Ebrahimi, Nasrin & Pedram, Mehdi & Mousavi, Mir Hossein, 2020. "The Effect of Central Bank's Monetary Policy on Unemployment and Inflation in Provinces of Iran: A GVAR Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(1), pages 55-74, January.
    25. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    26. Dimitris Korobilis & Michelle Gilmartin, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on State Unemployment," Working Paper series 12_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    27. Agnieszka Rabiej & Dominika Sikora & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "How regional business cycles diffuse across space and time: evidence from a Bayesian Markov switching panel of GDP and unemployment in Poland," KAE Working Papers 2023-082, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    28. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    29. Howard J. Wall, 2007. "Regional business cycle phases in Japan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jan), pages 61-80.
    30. Bruno Coric & Lena Malesevic Perovic & Vladimir Simic, 2015. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Monetary Policy Effects on Prices," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 377-390, October.
    31. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    32. Hasan Engin DURAN & Umut ERDEM, 2014. "Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy: Turkey Case," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 133-144.
    33. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    34. Andriantomanga, Zo & Kishor, N. Kundan & Kumar, Labesh, 2025. "Interest Rate Misalignments and Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from U.S. States," MPRA Paper 124748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Beckworth, David, 2010. "One nation under the fed? The asymmetric effects of US monetary policy and its implications for the United States as an optimal currency area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 732-746, September.
    36. Yutaka Kurihara, 2014. "Do European Central Bank Announcements Influence Stock Prices and Exchange Rates?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 1-1.
    37. Bryan Perry & Kerk L Phillips & David E. Spencer, 2015. "State-Level Variation in the Real Wage Response to Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, May.
    38. Chunya Bu & John Rogers & Wenbin Wu, 2020. "Forward-Looking Monetary Policy and the Transmission of Conventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. Magrini Stefano & Gerolimetto Margherita & Duran Hasan Engin, 2013. "Business cycle dynamics across the US states," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 795-822, April.

  47. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2005. "A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 832, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Ma, Xiaohan, 2018. "Investment specific technology, news, sentiment, and fluctuations: Evidence from nowcast data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-70.
    3. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," NBER Working Papers 11694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tim Berg, 2012. "Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 693-722, October.
    6. Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2007. "Identification of Technology Shocks in Structural VARs," Cahiers de recherche 0736, CIRPEE.
    7. Nadav Ben Zeev & Hashmat Khan, 2012. "Investment-Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 12-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2013.
    8. Fernald, John G., 2007. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2467-2485, November.
    9. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Paul Rudel & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "News Shock Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201832, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

  48. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Tillmann, Peter, 2007. "Inflation regimes in the US term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, March.
    2. Peter Tillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 26, Econometric Society.
    3. PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
    6. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    7. Richard Kwabi Ayisi & Joseph Adu, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation in Ghana," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 8(2), pages 53-61, March.
    8. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  49. Thomas A. Garrett & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Working Papers 2003-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Rakovska & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Martin Hodula, 2020. "The Power of Sentiment: Irrational Beliefs of Households and Consumer Loan Dynamics," Working Papers 2020/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Douglas Lamdin, 2008. "Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 279-288, June.
    3. Paul S. Calem & Matthew Cannon & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2011. "Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market," Working Papers 11-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2015. "Forecasting aggregate retail sales: The case of South Africa," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 66-79.
    5. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.
    6. Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
    7. Choi, Sangyup & Jeong, Jaehun & Yoo, Donghoon, 2024. "How to interpret consumer confidence shocks? State-level evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    8. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    10. Gizelis, Demetrios & Chowdhury, Shah, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 71243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bruno Albuquerque & Georgi Krustev, 2015. "Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption," Staff Working Papers 15-47, Bank of Canada.
    12. Christopher Biolsi & Bocong Du, 2020. "Do shocks to animal spirits cause output fluctuations?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 331-368, July.
    13. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2016. "Does investor sentiment really matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-232.
    14. Hardouvelis, Gikas & Thomakos, Dimitrios D, 2008. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 6701, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Choi, Sangyyup & Jeong, Jaehun & Park, Dohyeon & Yoo, Donghoon, 2023. "News or animal spirits? Consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2023, Bank of Finland.
    16. Edward M Feasel & Nobuyuki Kanazawa, 2013. "Sentiment toward Trading Partners and International Trade," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 309-327.

  50. Michael T. Owyang & Abbigail J Chiodo & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2004. "Nonlinear Hedonics and the Search for School District Quality," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 276, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. David Brasington & Don Haurin, 2005. "Educational Outcomes and House Values: A Test of the Value-Added Approach," Departmental Working Papers 2005-03, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    2. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "The Economic Gains to Colorado of Amendment 66," MPRA Paper 49928, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  51. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Working Papers 2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. M. Mayor-Fern ndez & R. Patuelli, 2012. "Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions," Working Papers wp835, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Kausik Chaudhuri & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Inflation Forecast: Just use the Disaggregate or Combine it with the Aggregate," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 331-343, June.
    3. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
    4. Svetlana Borovkova & Hendrik P. Lopuhaä & Budi Nurani Ruchjana, 2008. "Consistency and asymptotic normality of least squares estimators in generalized STAR models," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 62(4), pages 482-508, November.
    5. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper 39168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michelle T. Armesto & Rubén Hernández‐Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger, 2009. "Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 35-55, February.
    7. Buda, Rodolphe, 2008. "Estimation de l'emploi régional et sectoriel salarié français : application à l'année 2006 [Estimation of the french salaried regional and sectoral employment: application to the year 2006]," MPRA Paper 34881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cai, Charlie X. & Kyaw, Khine & Zhang, Qi, 2012. "Stock index return forecasting: The information of the constituents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 72-74.
    9. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    10. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
    11. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    13. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    14. Kopoin, Alexandre & Moran, Kevin & Paré, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "Forecasting regional GDP with factor models: How useful are national and international data?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 267-270.
    15. Shoesmith, Gary L., 2013. "Space–time autoregressive models and forecasting national, regional and state crime rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 191-201.
    16. Michelle T. Armesto & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Dan S. Rickman & Steven R. Miller & Russell McKenzie, 2009. "Spatial and sectoral linkages in regional models: A Bayesian vector autoregression forecast evaluation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 29-41, March.
    19. Grechyna, Daryna, 2025. "Raising awareness of climate change: Nature, activists, politicians?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023. "FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
    21. Safikhani, Abolfazl & Kamga, Camille & Mudigonda, Sandeep & Faghih, Sabiheh Sadat & Moghimi, Bahman, 2020. "Spatio-temporal modeling of yellow taxi demands in New York City using generalized STAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1138-1148.
    22. Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).

  52. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure," Working Papers 2002-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Kandice Kapinos, 2009. "On the Determinants of Defined Benefit Pension Plan Conversions," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 30(2), pages 149-167, June.
    2. Joshua Rauh & Irina Stefanescu & Stephen Zeldes, 2013. "Cost shifting and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Fred Robert-Nicoud (University of Geneva) & Niko Matouschek & Paolo Ramezzana (University of Virginia), 2004. "Labor Market Frictions, Job Insecurity and the Flexibility of the Employment Relationship," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 52, Econometric Society.
    4. Alicia H. Munnell & Dan Muldoon & Steven A. Sass, 2009. "Recessions and Older Workers," Issues in Brief ib2009-9-2, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jan 2009.
    5. Rauh, Joshua D. & Stefanescu, Irina & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2020. "Cost saving and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Kandice Kapinos, 2012. "Changes in Firm Pension Policy: Trends Away from Traditional Defined Benefit Plans," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 91-103, March.
    7. Christian E. Weller, 2011. "What Does the Literature Tell Us About the Possible Effect of Changing Retirement Benefits on Public Employee Effectiveness?," Working Papers wp270, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    8. Kandice Kapinos, 2011. "Changes in Firm Pension Policy: Trends Away from Traditional Defined Benefit Plans," Working Papers 11-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Ann Huff Stevens, 2005. "The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002," NBER Working Papers 11878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Vafeas, Nikos & Vlittis, Adamos, 2018. "Independent directors and defined benefit pension plan freezes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 505-518.
    11. Nicole Maestas & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2009. "How Longer Work Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging," Working Papers WR-728, RAND Corporation.
    12. Niko Matouschek & Paolo Ramezzana, 2004. "Labor Market Frictions, Job Insecurity, and the Flexibility of the Employment Relationship," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 28, Econometric Society.
    13. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage," NBER Working Papers 11808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Alicia H. Munnell & Kelly Haverstick & Geoffrey Sanzenbacher, 2006. "Job Tenure and Pension Coverage," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Oct 2006.
    15. Todd A. Watkins & Thomas Hyclak, 2011. "Why Are Quit Rates Lower Among Defense Contractors?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 573-590, October.
    16. Kandice Kapinos, 2009. "On the Determinants of Defined Benefit Pension Plan Conversions," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 149-167, June.
    17. Leora Friedberg & Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2008. "What Effect Do Time Constraints Have on the Age of Retirement?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-17, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
    18. J. Adam Cobb, 2015. "Risky Business: The Decline of Defined Benefit Pensions and Firms’ Shifting of Risk," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 1332-1350, October.
    19. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure," Working Papers 2002-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Cory Koedel & Michael Podgursky, 2011. "Teacher Pension Systems, the Composition of the Teaching Workforce, and Teacher Quality," Working Papers 1109, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 10 Apr 2012.
    21. Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2003. "Retirement and the Evolution of Pension Structure," NBER Working Papers 9999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  53. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Garrett, Thomas A. & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Personal-bankruptcy cycles," MPRA Paper 42740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    3. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2025. "Divergent effects of aggregate and local uncertainty shocks: Evidence from US metropolitan areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    5. Francis W. Ahking, 2015. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities (With Appendix A)," Working papers 2015-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross‐Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.
    7. Gregory Brock & Constantin Ogloblin, 2014. "Another look at technical efficiency in American states, 1979–2000," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 577-590, September.
    8. Chi‐Young Choi & Horag Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2020. "Regional inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from city‐level purchasing power," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 738-774, September.
    9. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Short-run dynamics of income disparities and regional cycle synchronization," Working Papers 2011_09, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. Hasan Engin Duran, 2014. "Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 292-332, June.
    12. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper 39168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Liu, De-Chih, 2013. "The evolution of excess job reallocation in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 188-206.
    14. Yolanda Kodrzycki & Bo Zhao, 2015. "Achieving greater fiscal stability: guidance for the New England states," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 15-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Keisuke Kondo, 2022. "Spatial dependence in regional business cycles: evidence from Mexican states," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-46, December.
    20. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    21. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
    22. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    23. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    24. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall & Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006. "A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 131, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Hie Joo Ahn & Yunjong Eo, 2025. "Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-062r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 16 Dec 2025.
    26. Chad R. Wilkerson, 2009. "Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-24.
    27. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    28. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    29. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Cletus C. Coughlin & Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2007. "Spatial Dependence in Models of State Fiscal Policy Convergence," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(3), pages 361-384, May.
    31. Choi, Sangyup & Jeong, Jaehun & Yoo, Donghoon, 2024. "How to interpret consumer confidence shocks? State-level evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    32. Tom Downes & Kieran M. Killeen, 2014. "So Slow to Change: The Limited Growth of Nontax Revenues in Public Education Finance, 1991–2010," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 9(4), pages 567-599, October.
    33. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    34. Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae & Jo, Chanik, 2020. "Chinese economic policy uncertainty and U.S. households' portfolio decisions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    35. Michael Artis & Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2009. "Common and spatial drivers in regional business cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 118, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    36. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    37. Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    39. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202151, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    40. Arias, Maria A. & Gascon, Charles S. & Rapach, David E., 2016. "Metro business cycles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 90-108.
    41. Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Gadea, M. Dolores & Bandres, Eduardo, 2018. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," MPRA Paper 83964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 207-222.
    43. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    44. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    45. Ivan Stankevich, 2025. "Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of G-20 countries GDP with endogenous regime-switching MIDAS models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1383-1410, September.
    46. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    47. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    48. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    49. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.
    50. Kuhlmann, Angela & Decker, Christopher S. & Wohar, Mark E., 2008. "The Composition of Industry and the Duration of State Recessions," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1-16.
    51. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Ben Gardiner & Peter Tyler, 2016. "How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 561-585, April.
    52. Dick van Dijk & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2005. "A multi-level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 811-827.
    53. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    54. Gelfer, Sacha, 2024. "Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    55. Engemann, Kristie & Owyang, Michael T. & Wall, Howard J., 2011. "Where is an oil shock?," MPRA Paper 31383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Chernis, Tony & Cheung, Calista & Velasco, Gabriella, 2020. "A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 851-872.
    57. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    58. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    59. John D. Burger & Jeremy S. Schwartz, 2018. "Jobless Recoveries: Stagnation Or Structural Change?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 709-723, April.
    60. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-16.
    61. Fok, D. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    62. Bedre Defolie, Özlem & Alexandrov, Alexei & Grodzicki, Daniel, 2017. "Consumer Demand for Credit Card Services," CEPR Discussion Papers 12506, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    63. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    64. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    65. Shibaev, Sergei S., 2016. "Recession Propagation in Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers and Endogenous Clustering," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274695, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    66. Keita, Sekou & Mandon, Pierre, 2018. "Give a fish or teach fishing? Partisan affiliation of U.S. governors and the poverty status of immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 65-96.
    67. Erick Elder & Gary A. Wagner, 2007. "How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 75-87.
    68. Shoesmith, Gary L., 2013. "Space–time autoregressive models and forecasting national, regional and state crime rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 191-201.
    69. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
    70. De-Chih Liu, 2014. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates in US: Evidence from Regional Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 447-455, April.
    71. Colleen Carey & Stephen H. Shore, 2013. "From the Peaks to the Valleys: Cross-State Evidence on Income Volatility over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 549-562, May.
    72. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
    73. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    74. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro Brinca & Haukur Viðar Guðjónsson & Maria Joana Soares, 2015. "Optimum Currency Area and Business Cycle Synchronization Across U.S. States," NIPE Working Papers 1/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    75. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    77. Asako, Kazumi & Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko, 2014. "An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 603, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    78. Agnieszka Rabiej & Dominika Sikora & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "How regional business cycles diffuse across space and time: evidence from a Bayesian Markov switching panel of GDP and unemployment in Poland," KAE Working Papers 2023-082, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    79. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    80. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2017. "Geographic Inequality of Economic Well-being among U.S. Cities: Evidence from Micro Panel Data," Globalization Institute Working Papers 330, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    81. Cellini, Roberto & Di Caro, Paolo & Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2014. "Regional resilience in Italy: do employment and income tell the same story?," MPRA Paper 59660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    83. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva, 2016. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    84. Howard J. Wall, 2007. "Regional business cycle phases in Japan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jan), pages 61-80.
    85. Bo Zhao, 2014. "Saving for a rainy day: estimating the appropriate size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds," Working Papers 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    86. Claudia M. Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2008. "Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 2296, CESifo.
    87. Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2009. "Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis," Working Papers 2009-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    88. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang & Anthony Webb, 2008. "Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
    89. Yang, Xingquan & Han, Liang & Li, Wanli & Yin, Xingqiang & Tian, Lin, 2017. "Monetary policy, cash holding and corporate investment: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 110-122.
    90. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    91. Martha L. Olney & Aaron Pacitti, 2017. "The Rise Of Services, Deindustrialization, And The Length Of Economic Recovery," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1625-1647, October.
    92. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    93. Robert Calvert Jump & Adam Scavette, 2026. "Do Research Universities Recession-Proof Their Regions? Evidence from State Flagship College Towns," Working Papers 26-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    94. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin & Michael Artis, 2011. "What drives regional business cycles? The role of common and spatial components," ERSA conference papers ersa10p317, European Regional Science Association.
    95. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Working Papers 2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    96. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    97. Andriantomanga, Zo & Kishor, N. Kundan & Kumar, Labesh, 2025. "Interest Rate Misalignments and Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from U.S. States," MPRA Paper 124748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    98. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    99. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2020. "Formal and statistical aspects of estimating Okun's law at a regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1113-1136, August.
    100. Beckworth, David, 2010. "One nation under the fed? The asymmetric effects of US monetary policy and its implications for the United States as an optimal currency area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 732-746, September.
    101. Bryan Perry & Kerk L Phillips & David E. Spencer, 2015. "State-Level Variation in the Real Wage Response to Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, May.
    102. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    103. Amore, Mario Daniele, 2015. "Companies learning to innovate in recessions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1574-1583.
    104. Michael A. Kouparitsas & Daisuke J. Nakajima, 2006. "Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q III), pages 45-60.
    105. Henning, Martin & Enflo, Kerstin & Andersson, Fredrik N.G., 2011. "Trends and cycles in regional economic growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 538-555.
    106. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.
    107. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.

  54. Athena T. Theodorou & Neville R. Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology SHocks in G7-Countries," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 444, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Lorenza Rossi & Fabrizio Mattesini, 2008. "We analyze, in this paper, a DSGE New Keynesian model with indi- visible labor where firms may belong to two different final goods producing sectors one where wages and employment are determined in competitive labor markets and the orther where wages," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0077, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2007. "Productivity shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Unionized Labor Market Economy," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0072, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Riccardo DiCecio & Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2010. "A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock," Working Papers 2005-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Rossi, Lorenza & Mattesini, Fabrizio, 2007. "Productivity Shock and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Unionized Labor Market. Forthcoming: The Manchester School," MPRA Paper 8414, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    5. The Pham, 2011. "Growth, volatility and stabilisation policy in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and learning-by-doing," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 307-322, September.
    6. Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4915, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2010. "Time Variation in U.S. Wage Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 3291, CESifo.
    9. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Edward Nelson, 2012. "The correlation between money and output in the United Kingdom: resolution of a puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Rossi, Lorenza & Mattesini, Fabrizio, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Dual Labor Market Economy," MPRA Paper 2468, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Mar 2007.
    12. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in economies with dual labor markets," CIMEO Working Paper Series 9, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    13. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral Technology Shocks And The Dynamics Of Labor Input: Results From An Agnostic Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, February.

  55. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Theodore M. Crone, 2003. "An alternative definition of economic regions in the U.S. based on similarities in state business cycles," Working Papers 03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross‐Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.
    4. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    8. Ridhwan, M.M. & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P., 2008. "Regional development and monetary policy : a review of the role of monetary unions, capital mobility and locational effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0007, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity - Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-043/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Michael S. Hanson & Erik Hurst & Ki Young Park, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Help Least Those Who Need It Most?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-006, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    11. Magrini Stefano & Gerolimetto Margherita & Duran Hasan Engin, 2013. "Business cycle dynamics across the US states," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 795-822, April.

  56. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2003. "The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks," Working Papers 2003-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Mark Weder, 2005. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," Adelaide Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Adelaide University, School of Economics.
    2. Rodolfo Mendez-Marcano, 2014. "Technology, Employment, and the Oil-Countries Business Cycle," Working Papers 1405, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: Checking for Robust Conclusions," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Cantore, Cristiano & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2010. "Shocking stuff: technology, hours, and factor substitution," Working Paper Series 1278, European Central Bank.
    5. Ossama Mikhail, 2005. "What Happens After A Technology Shock? A Bayesian Perspective," Macroeconomics 0510016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kim, Sangho & Lim, Hyunjoon & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Productivity and Employment in a Developing Country: Some Evidence from Korea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 514-522, April.
    7. Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2004. "Technology shocks and robust sign restrictions in a euro area SVAR," Working Paper Series 373, European Central Bank.
    8. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tim Berg, 2012. "Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 693-722, October.
    10. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2005. "What explains the varying monetary response to technology shocks in G-7 countries?," Working Papers 2004-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Mertens, Elmar, 2010. "Structural shocks and the comovements between output and interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1171-1186, June.
    12. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. GOSPODINOV, Nikolay & MAYNARD, Alex & PESAVENTO, Elena, 2009. "Sensitivity of Impulse Responses to Small Low Frequency Co-Movements : Reconciling the Evidence on the Effects of Technology Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 03-2009, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    14. Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "What are the effects of technology shocks on international labor markets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 806, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2004. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 10631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Junicke, Monika & Matějů, Jakub & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2025. "The heterogeneous effects of technology shocks. Evidence from the Czech Labour market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).

  57. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2003. "The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks," Working Papers 2003-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    4. Kostas Mouratidis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2004. "Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European Monetary System," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 69, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

  58. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2001. "Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt24q32688, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Perruchoud, 2009. "Estimating a Taylor Rule with Markov Switching Regimes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(2), pages 187-220, June.
    2. Collard , F. & Patrick F ve & Julien Matheron, 2007. "The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies," Working papers 190, Banque de France.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2010. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 16412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dimitris Korobilis & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2025. "Evaluating Monetary Policy using Deviation Errors," Working Papers 2025_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. A. Jung, 2013. "Policymakers’ Interest Rate Preferences: Recent Evidence for Three Monetary Policy Committees," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 150-197, September.
    6. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Monetary regime switches and unstable objectives," International Finance Discussion Papers 1036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2002. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 02-30, Bank of Canada.
    10. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Regime-switching in exchange rate policy and balance sheet effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3653, The World Bank.
    12. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
    13. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    14. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "What can a New Keynesian labor matching model match?," Kiel Working Papers 1496, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    15. Alexander Jung & Gergely Kiss, 2012. "Voting by monetary policy committees: evidence from the CEE inflation-targeting countries," MNB Working Papers 2012/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    16. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
    17. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Analyzing the Taylor Rule with Wavelet Lenses," NIPE Working Papers 18/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    19. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2009. "Determinants of exchange rate regime switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 68-98, February.
    20. Ronald Henry Lange, 2018. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Canada: A Time-Varying Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(6), pages 42-51, November.
    21. Gai, Prasanna & Tong, Eric, 2022. "Information spillovers of US monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    22. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Working Papers 13166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Chauvet, Marcelle & Jiang, Cheng, 2023. "Nonlinear relationship between monetary policy and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    24. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    25. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2025. "Energy in turmoil: Industry resilience to uncertainty during the global energy crisis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 389(C).
    26. Scott C. Borger & James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Endogenous monetary policy regime change," Research Working Paper RWP 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    28. Klodiana Istrefi, 2019. "In Fed Watchers Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy," Working papers 725, Banque de France.
    29. Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through," Working Papers 2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    30. Roc Armenter, 2008. "A General Theory (and Some Evidence) of Expectation Traps in Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 867-895, August.
    31. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    32. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 913-930, June.
    33. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    34. Lukas Hack & Klodiana Istrefi & Matthias Meier, 2025. "The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks," Working papers 1021, Banque de France.
    35. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Characterizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules and Interactions when Commodity Prices Matter," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 373-404, June.
    36. Seth Pruitt, 2012. "Uncertainty Over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 341-365, March.
    37. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
    38. Hutchison, Michael M & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2013. "Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt06s5812z, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    39. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    40. Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2023. "Monetary policy, external instruments, and heteroskedasticity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 161-200, January.
    41. Emrah I. Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Max Gillman & Szilard Benk, 2025. "Granger predictability of real oil prices by us money and inflation in Markov-switching regimes," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(1), pages 29-52, March.
    42. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2016. "Estimating the Taylor Rule in the Time-Frequency Domain," CEF.UP Working Papers 1404, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    43. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
    44. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
    45. Jung, Alexander & Kiss, Gergely, 2012. "Preference heterogeneity in the CEE inflation-targeting countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-460.
    46. Wesche, Katrin, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    47. Schepp, Zoltán & Abaligeti, Gallusz & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "Időben változó Taylor-szabály a hazai monetáris politika jellemzésére [A time-varying parameter Taylor rule for Hungarian monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-43.
    48. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1079-1091.
    49. Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.
    50. D H Kim & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 18, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    51. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.

  59. Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Lesli S. Ott & Michael T. Owyang & Denise Whalen, "undated". "Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 81db00bb87b14081b19193438, Mathematica Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Jack Baker & David Swanson & Jeff Tayman, 2021. "The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(6), pages 1341-1354, December.
    2. Jack DeWaard & Janna Johnson & Stephan D. Whitaker, 2019. "Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel," Working Papers 18-04R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Bulent Guler, 2013. "Dual Income Couples and Interstate Migration," 2013 Meeting Papers 898, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Victor Agadjanian & Evgenia Gorina, 2019. "Economic Swings, Political Instability and Migration in Kyrgyzstan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 285-304, May.
    5. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ramirez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas," MPRA Paper 59588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2013.
    6. Ben Klemens, 2022. "An analysis of US domestic migration via subset-stable measures of administrative data," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 351-382, May.
    7. Sohani Fatehin & David L. Sjoquist, 2021. "State and Local Taxes and Employment by Wage Level," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(1), pages 53-65, February.
    8. Iriti, Jennifer & Page, Lindsay C. & Bickel, William E., 2018. "Place-based scholarships: Catalysts for systems reform to improve postsecondary attainment," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 137-148.
    9. Ahmet Ali Taskin, 2014. "Sorted and Settled: Migration Decisions of Dual Income Families," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1219, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.

Articles

  1. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Michael Dueker & Laura E Jackson & Michael T Owyang & Martin Sola, 2023. "A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 63-98.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023. "FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.

    Cited by:

    1. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    2. Kohlhas, Alexandre N. & Robertson, Donald, 2025. "Cautious expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(S).

  6. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Business Cycles across Space and Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 921-952, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-41, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo Dicecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 205-228, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Francis, Neville R. & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 309-321.

    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2025. "Forecasting with shadow rate VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 795-822, July.
    3. Vrinda Gupta & Amlendu Dubey, 2024. "US monetary policy, the global financial cycle and cross-country financial cycles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 999-1019, December.
    4. Aslim, Erkmen Giray & Panovska, Irina & Taş, M. Anıl, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of maternity leave legislation in emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Hogen, Yoshihiko & Okuma, Ryoichi, 2025. "The anchoring of inflation expectations in Japan: A learning-approach perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    7. Andre Amaral & Taysir E. Dyhoum & Hussein A. Abdou & Hassan M. Aljohani, 2022. "Modeling for the Relationship between Monetary Policy and GDP in the USA Using Statistical Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Valentina Massagli & Manuela Pedio, 2021. "Does the Cost of Private Debt Respond to Monetary Policy? Heteroskedasticity-Based Identification in a Model with Regimes," Working Papers 676, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    10. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    12. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Nolan, Charles & Shafiei, Maryam, 2021. "Deep recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 310-323.

  12. Jackson Laura E. & Kliesen Kevin L. & Owyang Michael T., 2020. "The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-19, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 6, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2020. "Reviewing the oil price–GDP growth relationship: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. MALATA, Alain K. & PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Système financier et COVID-19 : Un examen de l’impact en RDC [Financial system and COVID-19: A review of the impact in the DRC]," MPRA Paper 107772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kyriaki I. Kafka, 2024. "Under the Veil of Uncertainty: Assessing the Greek Economy’s Resilience and Vulnerability in the Face of Different Uncertainty Types," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 9288-9321, June.
    4. PINSHI, Christian P., 2023. "Claims, Deposits and Financial Conditions in DR Congo: Impact of COVID-19 on the Financial System," MPRA Paper 117381, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  15. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 675-704, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2018. "Comparing Measures of Potential Output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(4), pages 297-316.

    Cited by:

    1. Cicilia Anggadewi Harun & Wishnu Mahraddika & Jati Waluyo & Pakasa Bary & Rieska Indah Astuti & Fauzan Rachman & Rizky Primayudha & Dwi Oktaviyanti & Euis Aqmaliyah, 2021. "Business And Financial Cycle In Indonesia: An Integrated Approach," Working Papers WP/05/2021, Bank Indonesia.
    2. Bec, Frédérique & Kanda, Patrick, 2020. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations? An empirical assessment from US real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2020. "A sectoral approach to measuring output gap: Evidence from 20 US sectors over 1948-2019," Working Papers 2012, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
    4. Camilo Granados & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Estimating the Output Gap After COVID: How to Address Unprecedented Macroeconomic Variations," Borradores de Economia 1249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.

  19. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1479-1505, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Ozge Savascin, 2017. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1261-1276, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2017. "Clustered housing cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 185-197.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2017. "China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 25(2).

    Cited by:

    1. Yao Yao & Ruhul Salim, 2020. "Crowds in or crowds out? The effect of foreign direct investment on domestic investment in Chinese cities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2129-2154, May.
    2. Liu, Jianhua & Liu, Jingjun & Tang, Zhenyang & Xu, Yue, 2024. "Provincial economic growth and firm excess investment: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Is American manufacturing in decline?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 107-123, July.
    4. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.

  24. Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2016. "Measuring Trends in Income Inequality," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2016. "Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 7, pages 1-2.
    2. Bittencourt, Manoel & Chang, Shinhye & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2019. "Does financial development affect income inequality in the U.S. States?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1056.
    3. Manoel Bittencourt & Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Does Financial Development Affect Income Inequality in the U.S. States? A Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers 201803, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  25. Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2016. "Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 7, pages 1-2.

    Cited by:

    1. Sima Siami‐Namini & Conrad Lyford & A. Alexandre Trindade, 2020. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income Inequality Across U.S. States," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 204-221, September.
    2. Berisha, Edmond & Meszaros, John & Olson, Eric, 2018. "Income inequality, equities, household debt, and interest rates: Evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Edmond Berisha & John Meszaros, 2020. "Long-Term Rates, Capital Shares, and Income Inequality," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 619-635, July.
    4. Marta de la Cuesta-González & Cristina Ruza & José M. Rodríguez-Fernández, 2020. "Rethinking the Income Inequality and Financial Development Nexus. A Study of Nine OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Mohamed Chakroun, 2020. "Threshold effects in the relationship between financial development and income inequality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 365-387, July.
    6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kolb, Benedikt & Prieto, Esteban, 2018. "Effects of bank capital requirement tightenings on inequality," Discussion Papers 54/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Nahid Farnaz, 2023. "Does Financial Development Relieve or Exacerbate Income Inequality? A Quantile Regression Approach," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2311, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  26. Diana A. Cooke & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Regional vs. Global: How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue April.

    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Ameyaw, 2023. "The relevance of domestic and foreign factors in driving Ghana’s business cycle," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(9), pages 1-33, September.
    2. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2018. "The Determinants Of Indonesian Business Cycle," Working Papers WP/30/2018, Bank Indonesia.
    3. Arčabić, Vladimir & Škrinjarić, Tihana, 2021. "Sharing is caring: Spillovers and synchronization of business cycles in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 25-39.
    4. Marta SIMÕES & João Sousa ANDRADE & Adelaide DUARTE, 2022. "Human capital and labour market resilience over time: a regional perspective of the Portuguese case," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 26-59, June.

  27. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "A Measure of Price Pressures," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(1), pages 25-52.

    Cited by:

    1. Kevin J. Lansing, 2019. "Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8282, CESifo.
    4. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 25.
    5. Kathryn Bokun & Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications," Working Papers 2020-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Aug 2021.
    6. Hernández del Valle Gerardo, 2015. "On the pricing of defaultable bonds and Hitting times of Ito processes," Working Papers 2015-21, Banco de México.

  29. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2015. "Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(2), pages 133-158.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad H. Juma’h & Yazan Alnsour, 2018. "Using Social Media Analytics: The Effect of President Trump’s Tweets On Companies’ Performance," Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 100-121, March.

  30. Andra C. Ghent & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 820-854, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014. "A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 638-647, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Ghent, Andra C. & Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T., 2014. "Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-215.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2014. "Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jing & Stock, James H., 2019. "Cost pass-through to higher ethanol blends at the pump: Evidence from Minnesota gas station data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Mai Dao & Allan Dizioli & Chris Jackson & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2023/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mukharlyamov, Vladimir & Sarin, Natasha, 2025. "Price regulation in two-sided markets: Empirical evidence from debit cards," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Bittmann, Thomas & Holzer, Patrick & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2016. "Seasonal Cost Pass-Through In The German Milk Market," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244779, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    6. Christopher R. Knittel & Ben S. Meiselman & James H. Stock, 2015. "The Pass-Through of RIN Prices to Wholesale and Retail Fuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard," NBER Working Papers 21343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  34. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2014. "Employment Revision Asymmetries," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 11.

    Cited by:

    1. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021. "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers 2021-007, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

  36. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 129-134, May.

    Cited by:

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    275. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    276. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Panas, 2021. "Investigating government spending multiplier for the US economy: empirical evidence using a triple lasso approach," Working Papers 292, Bank of Greece.
    277. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.
    278. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.

  37. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2013. "Discordant city employment cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 367-384.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan & E. Katarina Vermann, 2013. "Output and unemployment: how do they relate today?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue October.

    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Ugyen Tenzin, 2019. "The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(1), pages 94-105, March.
    3. Samuel Huber & Jaehong Kim & Alessandro Marchesiani, 2019. "Unemployment and the demand for money," ECON - Working Papers 324, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.

  39. Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2013. "Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 445-464.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.

    Cited by:

    1. Roger Perman & Stephan Gaetan & Christophe Tavera, 2013. "Okun's law - a meta analysis," Working Papers 1311, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. van Ours, J.C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," Discussion Paper 2015-006, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    4. Elva Bova & Christina Kolerus & Sampawende Tapsoba, 2015. "A fiscal job? An analysis of fiscal policy and the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. van Ours, Jan C. & Dixon, Robert & Lim, Guay, 2016. "Revisiting Okun's relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 11184, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Milen Velev, 2018. "Unemployment and economic growth: Is there a relationship in the European Union?," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 12-29.
    7. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 2014/213, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Eduardo Loría & Emmanuel Salas, 2014. "A Nonlinear Relationship: Unemployment and Economic Growth (Construction Sector) in Spain, 1995.1–2012.2," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(4), pages 439-453, November.
    9. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
    10. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    11. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    12. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    13. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.
    14. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    15. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2013. "Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works," MPRA Paper 44843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Vierke, Hauke, 2016. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-208.
    18. Koutroulis, Aristotelis & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2016. "Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden co-integration," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 81-88.
    19. Anderton, Robert & Aranki, Ted & Bonthuis, Boele & Jarvis, Valerie, 2014. "Disaggregating Okun's law: decomposing the impact of the expenditure components of GDP on euro area unemployment," Working Paper Series 1747, European Central Bank.
    20. Nebot, César & Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2019. "New insights into the nonlinearity of Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 202-210.
    21. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    23. Björn Brey & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2016. "The extension of short-time work schemes during the Great Recession: A story of success?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2016-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    24. Korkut Alp Erturk & Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, 2018. "The changing dynamics of short-run output adjustment," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2018_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    25. Albers, Scott, 2013. "Okun’s Law as a Pi-to-1 ratio: A harmonic / trigonometric theory as to why Okun’s Law works," MPRA Paper 46633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Mindaugas Butkus & Laura Dargenyte-Kacileviciene & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2023. "The role of labor market regulations on the sensitivity of unemployment to economic growth," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 373-427, December.
    27. van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," CEPR Discussion Papers 10376, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    28. Albers, Scott, 2013. "Of Jane Austen and the secret life of econometric quantities, or as otherwise entitled on Okun's Law and the 'multiplicative inverse surprise'," MPRA Paper 44594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Adama Zerbo, 2017. "Croissance économique et chômage : les fondements de la loi d'Okun et le modèle IS-LM-LO," Documents de travail 176, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    30. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law," Working Papers (Old Series) 1523, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    31. Tiwari, Smriti, 2021. "Do macroeconomic fluctuations at destination matter in determining migrants’ return decisions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    32. Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Okun's Law across the Business Cycle and during the Great Recession: A Markov Switching Analysis," Working Papers 139, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    33. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    34. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 115-118.
    35. van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so great," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-12.
    36. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    37. Nektarios A. Michail, 2015. "Examining the Stability of Okun’s Coefficient," Working Papers 2015-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    38. Ana Michaela ANDREI, 2014. "Using asymmetric Okun law and Phillips curve for potential output estimates: an empirical study for Romania," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2014(23), pages 6-18, December.
    39. Askenazy, Philippe & Chevalier, Martin & Erhel, Christine, 2015. "Okun’s Laws Differentiated by Education," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1514, CEPREMAP.
    40. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2013. "Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?," NBER Working Papers 18668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2020. "Okun’s Law across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    42. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    43. Celia Melguizo, 2015. "An analysis of Okun?s law for the Spanish provinces," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1558, European Regional Science Association.
    44. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "Re-evaluating Okun’s Law: Why all recessions and recoveries are “different”," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    45. Costas Karfakis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Eftychia Tsanana, 2013. "Does Output Predict Unemployment? A Look at Okun’s Law in Greece," Discussion Paper Series 2013_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2013.
    46. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "Do real-time Okun's law errors predict GDP data revisions?," Working Papers 13-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    47. Celia Melguizo Cháfer, 2015. "“An analysis of the Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces”," AQR Working Papers 201501, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2015.
    48. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining deviations from Okun’s law," Working Paper Series 2699, European Central Bank.
    49. Christian Oberst & Jens Oelgemöller, 2013. "Economic Growth and Regional Labor Market Development in German Regions: Okun’s Law in a Spatial Context," FCN Working Papers 5/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    50. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "A hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR analysis of Okun’s law in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    51. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.

  43. Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1066-1080, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.

    Cited by:

    1. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus & Tuomas Peltonen, 2016. "Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries," Staff Working Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    2. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Targeting financial stress as opposed to the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 84865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David Aikman & Michael T. Kiley & Seung Jung Lee & Michael G. Palumbo & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2015. "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Pan, Zhigang & Bai, Zhihong & Xing, Xiaochao & Wang, Zhufeng, 2024. "US inflation and global commodity prices: Asymmetric interdependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Kwark, Noh-Sun & Lee, Changhyun, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of financial conditions on GDP growth in Korea: A quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 351-369.
    6. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2020. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Vdovychenko, Artem & Oros, Galyna, 2014. "Financial stress index: estimation and application in empirical researches in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 69337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bucacos, Elizabeth, 2017. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8275, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay & Ozturk, Huseyin, 2019. "Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 151-172.
    10. Stona, Filipe & Morais, Igor A.C. & Triches, Divanildo, 2018. "Economic dynamics during periods of financial stress: Evidences from Brazil," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-144.
    11. Zouheir Ahmed Mighri & Majid Ibrahim Alsaggaf, 2019. "Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment between Oil Prices and Financial Stress," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 87-105.
    12. Mirna Dumičić, 2015. "Financial Stability Indicators – the Case of Croatia," Working Papers 43, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    13. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    14. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "Not the usual suspects: Critical indicators in a dollarized country's Financial Stress Index," MPRA Paper 116086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    16. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1479-1505, October.
    17. Carmen Broto & Matías Lamas, 2016. "Measuring market liquidity in us fixed income markets: a new synthetic indicator," Working Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    18. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    19. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2017. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," ESRB Working Paper Series 39, European Systemic Risk Board.
    20. Elizabeth Bucacos & Patricia Carballo & Miguel Mello & Jorge Ponce, 2022. "COVID-19 in Uruguay: A survey of policy responses and their impact," Documentos de trabajo 2022002, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    21. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2015. "Carry and Trend Following Returns in the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 15/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    22. Gallegati, Marco & Delli Gatti, Domenico, 2018. "Macrofinancial imbalances in historical perspective: A global crisis index," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 190-205.
    23. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2014. "A guide to tracking the U.S. economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 35-54.
    25. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01110688, HAL.
    26. Chen, Ruoyu & Iqbal, Najaf & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahzad, Farrukh & Fareed, Zeeshan, 2022. "Does financial stress wreak havoc on banking, insurance, oil, and gold markets? New empirics from the extended joint connectedness of TVP-VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    27. Drenkovska, Marija & Lenarčič, Črt, 2025. "Financial markets stress indicator for Slovenia (FIMSIS)," MPRA Paper 125551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100578, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Financial stress dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from the Arab Spring," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 20-34.
    30. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    31. Hong, Yanran & Li, Pan & Wang, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    32. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    33. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    34. Sofiane Aboura & Björn van Roye, 2017. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: An application to France," Working Papers hal-01526393, HAL.
    35. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    36. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Temporal homogeneity between financial stress and the economic cycle," MPRA Paper 91119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Paul Ormerod & Rickard Nyman & David Tuckett, 2015. "Measuring Financial Sentiment to Predict Financial Instability: A New Approach based on Text Analysis," Papers 1508.05357, arXiv.org.
    38. Taicir Mezghani & Mouna Boujelbène Abbes, 2023. "Forecast the Role of GCC Financial Stress on Oil Market and GCC Financial Markets Using Convolutional Neural Networks," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(3), pages 505-530, September.
    39. Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Constructing a financial fragility index for emerging countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 410-419.
    40. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    41. Balcilar, Mehmet & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "Financial connectedness and risk transmission among MENA countries: Evidence from connectedness network and clustering analysis1," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    42. Hartmann, Philipp & Hubrich, Kirstin & Kremer, Manfred & Tetlow, Robert J., 2013. "Melting down: Systemic financial instability and the macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80487, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    43. Blot, Christophe & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien & Saraceno, Francesco, 2015. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 71-88.
    44. Manfred Kremer, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    45. Carrillo Julio A. & García Ana Laura, 2021. "The COVID-19 Economic Crisis in Mexico through the Lens of a Financial Conditions Index," Working Papers 2021-23, Banco de México.
    46. Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 1-52, February.
    47. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Xiaoyang Li & Romina Ruprecht & Xuan Zhou, 2025. "A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(4), pages 191-248, October.
    48. Donal Smith, 2016. "The International Impact of Financial Shocks: A Global VAR and Connectedness Measures Approach," Discussion Papers 16/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    49. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2015. "The lean versus clean debate and monetary policy in South Africa," MPRA Paper 68123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    51. Sona Benecka & Petr Polak, 2023. "Regional sentiment of Central European currencies in the global context," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - March 2023, pages 13-20, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    52. Hayet Soltani & Mouna Boujelbène Abbes, 2025. "Regime-Specific Spillover Effects Between Financial Stress, GCC Stock Markets, Brent Crude Oil, and the Gold Market," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 8840-8866, June.
    53. Nicolaas van der Wath, 2016. "Gauging financial conditions in South Africa," Working Papers 10/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    54. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    55. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2019. "A Financial Stress Index for a Highly Dollarized Developing Country: The Case of Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2017. "Volatility spillover effects in interbank money markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 105-136, February.
    58. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2018. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," MIC 2018: Managing Global Diversities; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Bled, Slovenia, 30 May–2 June 2018,, University of Primorska Press.
    59. Gurnain Pasricha & Tom Roberts & Ian Christensen & Brad Howell, 2013. "Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Autumn), pages 10-19.
    60. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    61. John Dooley & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Evaluating the Information Value for Measures of Systemic Conditions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1513, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    62. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    63. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    64. Filip, Bogdan Florin, 2014. "Financial-Monetary Instability Factors within the Framework of the Recent Crisis in Romania," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 141213, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    65. Mirna Dumičić, 2016. "Financial Stability Indicators – The Case of Croatia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 113-140.
    66. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    67. Caporin, Massimiliano & Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2021. "TrAffic LIght system for systemic Stress: TALIS3," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    68. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    69. Phillip J. Monin, 2019. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, February.
    70. George A. Waters, 2013. "Quantity versus Price Rationing of Credit: An Empirical Test," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-9, July.
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    77. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria & Karminsky, Alexander, 2022. "When central bank research meets Google search: A sentiment index of global financial stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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    80. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    81. Iulia Andreea Bucur & Mircea Muntean, 2014. "An Overview Of Fiscal Consolidation Process In The European Union," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 20.
    82. Phillip Monin, 2017. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 17-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    83. Pinto-Ávalos, Francisco & Bowe, Michael & Hyde, Stuart, 2024. "Revisiting the pricing impact of commodity market spillovers on equity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    84. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    85. Chattopadhyay, Dhriti & Saha, Bidipta & Saha, Dikshita & Saha, Madhurima & Chakrabarti, Gagari, 2025. "Adding precious metals to a risk avert Investor's portfolio – Is gold alone?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    86. MacDonald, Ronald & Sogiakas, Vasilios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2015. "An investigation of systemic stress and interdependencies within the Eurozone and Euro Area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 52-69.
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    88. Lawson, Jeremy & Watt, Abigail & Martinez, Carolina & Fu, Rong, 2019. "Chinese Financial Conditions and their Spillovers to the Global Economy and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14065, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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    93. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2014. "Exploring the effects of financial and fiscal vulnerabilities on G7 economies: Evidence from SVAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-367.
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  45. Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(July), pages 265-286.

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    1. Vinish Shrestha, 2018. "Do young adults substitute cigarettes for alcohol? Learning from the master settlement agreement," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 297-321, June.

  46. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Lesli S. Ott & Michael T. Owyang & Denise Whalen, 2011. "Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 169-186.
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  47. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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    1. Robert Socha, 2014. "Asymetria relacji cen paliw płynnych w Polsce i cen ropy naftowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 133-160.
    2. Socha, Robert, . "Asymetria relacji cen paliw płynnych w Polsce i cen ropy naftowej," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2014(5).

  48. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
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  50. Engemann, Kristie M. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Whatever Happened To The Business Cycle? A Bayesian Analysis Of Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 709-726, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  51. Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 521-536.

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    1. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    3. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Working Papers 2014/08, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Kanas, Angelos & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Do measures of systemic risk predict U.S. corporate bond default rates?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Stefan Gindl, 2019. "Exploring the predictive ability of LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of four major city DMOs in Austria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 375-401, May.
    6. Wang, Ruina & Li, Jinfang, 2021. "The influence and predictive powers of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Heinisch, Katja & Lindner, Axel, 2018. "For how long do IMF forecasts of world economic growth stay up-to-date?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest ar, pages 1-6.
    8. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    9. Franco, Ray John Gabriel & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "The Dynamics of Inflation and GDP Growth: A Mixed Frequency Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    11. Miller, J. Isaac, 2018. "Simple robust tests for the specification of high-frequency predictors of a low-frequency series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 45-66.
    12. Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Xin & Kang, Wanglin, 2019. "Forecasting carbon prices in the Shenzhen market, China: The role of mixed-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 69-76.
    13. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Qing & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Forecasting U.S. real GDP using oil prices: A time-varying parameter MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-187.
    14. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    15. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Bhaghoe, S. & Ooft, G. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2019. "Estimates of quarterly GDP growth using MIDAS regressions," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    17. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Predicting quarterly aggregates with monthly indicators," Working Papers 2012-023, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    18. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
    19. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2014. "Industry co-movement and cross-listing: Do home country factors matter?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 96-110.
    20. Zhao, Xin & Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Kang, Wanglin, 2018. "Usefulness of economic and energy data at different frequencies for carbon price forecasting in the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 132-141.
    21. Nikolaos Antonakakis & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "International Monetary Policy Spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR," Working Papers 201806, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    23. Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2015. "Shaping the manufacturing industry performance: MIDAS approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 286-290.
    24. Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan & Li, Mengheng, 2019. "Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1735-1747.
    25. Ghysels, Eric & Miller, J. Isaac, 2013. "Testing for Cointegration with Temporally Aggregated and Mixed-frequency Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 9654, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    26. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    27. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Zemlys, Vaidotas, 2012. "Testing the functional constraints on parameters in regressions with variables of different frequency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 250-254.
    28. Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
    29. Guy P. Nason & Ben Powell & Duncan Elliott & Paul A. Smith, 2017. "Should we sample a time series more frequently?: decision support via multirate spectrum estimation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(2), pages 353-407, February.
    30. João C. Claudio & Katja Heinisch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2020. "Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 29-54, January.
    31. Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Jooste,Charl, 2020. "Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9247, The World Bank.
    32. Stefan Neuwirth, 2017. "Time-varying mixed frequency forecasting: A real-time experiment," KOF Working papers 17-430, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    33. Kertlly de Medeiros, Rennan & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Pitta de Jesus, Diego & Phillipe de Albuquerquemello, Vinicius, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices: New approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    34. Guay, Alain & Maurin, Alain, 2015. "Disaggregation methods based on MIDAS regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 123-129.
    35. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    36. Bangwayo-Skeete, Prosper F. & Skeete, Ryan W., 2015. "Can Google data improve the forecasting performance of tourist arrivals? Mixed-data sampling approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 454-464.
    37. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "How do daily changes in oil prices affect US monthly industrial output?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 83-90.
    38. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Gómez-Zamudio Luis M., 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-17, Banco de México.
    39. Kamini Solanki & Yudhvir Seetharam, 2014. "Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 8(3), September.
    40. Jung, Alexander, 2017. "Forecasting broad money velocity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-432.
    41. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150465, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    42. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2013. "Testing for Granger Causality with Mixed Frequency Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9655, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    43. Harchaoui, Tarek M. & Janssen, Robert V., 2018. "How can big data enhance the timeliness of official statistics?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 225-234.
    44. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
    45. Zhang, Jin & Li, Pujiang & Zhao, Guochang, 2018. "Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 211-216.
    46. Österholm, Pär, 2013. "Survey Data and Short-Term Forecasts of Swedish GDP Growth," Working Papers 130, National Institute of Economic Research.
    47. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    48. Mikosch, Heiner & Solanko, Laura, 2017. "Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    49. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    50. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan & Zhou, Huan, 2014. "Can we Automate Earnings Forecasts and Beat Analysts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10186, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    51. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan, 2017. "Automated Earnings Forecasts:- Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12179, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    52. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    53. Ghysels, Eric & Qian, Hang, 2019. "Estimating MIDAS regressions via OLS with polynomial parameter profiling," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 1-16.
    54. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    55. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Margarita MAR�N JARAMILLO, 2016. "Pronóstico del Consumo Privado: Usando datos de alta frecuencia para el pronóstico de variables de baja frecuencia," Archivos de Economía 14828, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    56. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2012. "Forecasting GDP over the business cycle in a multi-frequency and data-rich environment," Working papers 384, Banque de France.

  52. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 185-204.

    Cited by:

    1. Farrer, Benjamin & Holahan, Robert & Shvetsova, Olga, 2017. "Accounting for heterogeneous private risks in the provision of collective goods: Controversial compulsory contracting institutions in horizontal hydrofracturing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 138-150.
    2. Hilber, Christian A. L., 2011. "The economics implications of house price capitalization a survey of an emerging literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58596, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Xiaoping Zhou & Tong Lei & Yuyao Wang & Tianzheng Zhang & Yingjie Zhang & Yan Song & Yingxiang Zeng, 2022. "The spillover effect of senior neighbors on housing prices: Evidence from Beijing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1812, December.
    4. Hilber, Christian A. L., 2015. "The economic implications of house price capitalization: a synthesis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61774, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Geoffrey K. Turnbull & Minrong Zheng, 2022. "Desegregation Litigation and School Quality Capitalization," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 210-227, February.
    6. Jørgen Lauridsen & Niels Nannerup & Morten Skak, 2013. "House prices and land regulation in the Copenhagen area," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 205-220, September.
    7. Rivera Rodas, Elizabeth I., 2019. "Which New Yorkers vote with their wallets? The impact of teacher quality data on household sorting, and residential and school demographics," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 104-121.
    8. Geoffrey K. Turnbull & Minrong Zheng, 2021. "A Meta‐Analysis of School Quality Capitalization in U.S. House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1120-1171, December.
    9. Yadavalli, Anita P. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2013. "The Effect of School Quality on House Prices: A Meta-Regression Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151291, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Han-Jang No & Dai-Won Kim & Jung-Suk Yu, 2017. "Do Reserve Prices Yield Reference Price Effects in Korean Court Auctions of Residential Real Estate?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 75-104.
    11. Cano-Urbina, Javier & Clapp, Christopher M. & Willardsen, Kevin, 2019. "The effects of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill on housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-156.
    12. Chugunov, D., 2013. "Impact of School Quality and Neighborhoods on Housing Prices in Moscow," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 87-112.
    13. Mathur, Shishir, 2022. "Non-linear and weakly monotonic relationship between school quality and house prices," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Nguyen-Hoang, Phuong & Yinger, John, 2011. "The capitalization of school quality into house values: A review," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 30-48, March.

  53. Michelle T. Armesto & Rub…N Hern¡Ndez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger, 2009. "Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 35-55, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Luiz Renato Lima & Lucas Lúcio Godeiro & Mohammed Mohsin, 2021. "Time-Varying Dictionary and the Predictive Power of FED Minutes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 149-181, January.
    2. Herman O. Stekler & Hilary Symington, 2014. "How Did The Fomc View The Great Recession As It Was Happening?: Evaluating The Minutes From Fomc Meetings, 2006-2010," Working Papers 2014-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    3. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
    4. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.
    5. Ingrid E. Fisher & Margaret R. Garnsey & Mark E. Hughes, 2016. "Natural Language Processing in Accounting, Auditing and Finance: A Synthesis of the Literature with a Roadmap for Future Research," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 157-214, July.
    6. Rubén Fernández-Fuertes, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Hope. Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25257, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Charles S. Gascon & Devin Werner, 2022. "Does the Beige Book Reflect U.S. Employment and Inflation Trends?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 13, pages 1-3, June.
    8. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    9. J. Scott Davis & Mark A. Wynne, 2016. "Central bank communications: a case study," Globalization Institute Working Papers 283, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2021. "Economic prediction with the FOMC minutes: An application of text mining," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 751-761.
    11. J. Isaac Miller, 2012. "Mixed-frequency Cointegrating Regressions with Parsimonious Distributed Lag Structures," Working Papers 1211, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    12. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
    13. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes," Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    15. Bahar Şen Doğan & Murat Midiliç, 2019. "Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 367-395, January.
    16. Joel Elvery, 2024. "Introduction to the Cleveland Fed Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) Indexes," Cleveland Fed District Data Brief 99167, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Christoph S. Weber, 2017. "The Effect of Central Bank Transparency on Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers 174, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    18. Kathryn Lundquist & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    19. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Perez & Elena Vidal, 2024. "Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 643-692, August.
    20. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasting with LSTM and mixed frequency time series data," Papers 2109.13777, arXiv.org.
    21. Amrendra Pandey & Jagadish Shettigar & Amarnath Bose, 2021. "Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    22. Paul Gower & Florian Meier & Karl Shutes, 2019. "Regulator Communication and Market Confidence in Difficult Times: Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(4), pages 1-24.
    23. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
    24. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.
    25. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    26. Cláudia Duarte, 2014. "Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS regressions," Working Papers w201401, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    27. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    28. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    29. Sadique, Shibley & In, Francis & Veeraraghavan, Madhu & Wachtel, Paul, 2013. "Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 81-92.
    30. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan & Zhou, Huan, 2014. "Can we Automate Earnings Forecasts and Beat Analysts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10186, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    31. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
    32. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan, 2017. "Automated Earnings Forecasts:- Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12179, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    33. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    34. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Born, Benjamin, 2010. "Macroprudential policy and central bank communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 8094, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

  54. Michael Owyang & Howard Wall, 2009. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1191-1194.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. Owyang, Michael T. & Rapach, David E. & Wall, Howard J., 2009. "States and the business cycle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 181-194, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2008. "A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Mar), pages 117-132.

    Cited by:

    1. Hristov, Atanas, 2022. "Credit spread and the transmission of government purchases shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Shocks: New Evidence Using Natural Distaster Relief in Korea," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 12-05, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
    3. Emily Anderson & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1877-1888, December.
    4. Gerald Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013. "Macro Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: States as Agents," NBER Working Papers 19559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2009. "Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis," Working Papers 2009-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Craig, Steven G. & Hoang, Edward C., 2011. "State government response to income fluctuations: Consumption, insurance, and capital expenditures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 343-351, July.

  57. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  58. Riccardo DiCecio & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2008. "Changing trends in the labor force: a survey," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jan), pages 47-62.

    Cited by:

    1. Saridakis, George & Marlow, Susan & Storey, David J., 2014. "Do different factors explain male and female self-employment rates?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 345-362.
    2. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wang, Tong & Hennessy, David & Park, Seong, 2014. "Veterinary Supply, Gender and Practice Location Choices in the United States, 1990-2010," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170211, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    5. Ross Richardson & Lia Pacelli & Ambra Poggi & Matteo Richiardi, 2018. "Female Labour Force Projections Using Microsimulation for Six EU Countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(2), pages 5-51.
    6. Joseph S. Falzone, 2017. "Labor Force Participation and Educational Attainment in the United States," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 321-332, August.
    7. Yuanyuan Deng & Hugo Benítez-Silva, 2015. "Medicare Expenditures, Social Security Reform, and the Labor Force Participation of Older Americans," Working Papers wp330, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Kristie M. Engemann & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "The effects of recessions across demographic groups," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Jan), pages 1-26.
    9. Levin, Andrew & Erceg, Christopher, 2013. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 9668, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Lena Edlund & Cecilia Machado & Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2019. "Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrification and the Rising Returns to Skill," Working Papers 2019-32, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. Lahiri, Kajal & Song, Jae & Wixon, Bernard, 2008. "A model of Social Security Disability Insurance using matched SIPP/Administrative data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 4-20, July.
    12. Silvio Contessi & Li Li, 2013. "From \\"man-cession\\" to \\"he-covery\\": same old, same old," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Lena Edlund & Cecilia Machado & Maria Sviatschi, 2016. "Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrification and the Rising Returns to Skill," Working Papers 16-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. John C. Beghin & Birgit Meade & Stacey Rosen, 2015. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 14-wp550, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    15. David J G Slusky, 2017. "Significant Placebo Results in Difference-in-Differences Analysis: The Case of the ACA’s Parental Mandate," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 580-603, September.
    16. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.

  59. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  60. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2006. "Social changes lead married women into labor force," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 10-11.

    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Artz & Ilker Kaya & Ozgur Kaya, 2022. "Gender role perspectives and job burnout," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 447-470, June.
    2. Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio & Paolo Berta, 2025. "Personal and regional risk factors of being a NEET: a comparative study in Italy, France and Germany with LFS microdata," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1203-1234, April.
    3. Hiroyuki Kikuchi & Yuko Odagiri & Yumiko Ohya & Yutaka Nakanishi & Teruichi Shimomitsu & Töres Theorell & Shigeru Inoue, 2020. "Association of overtime work hours with various stress responses in 59,021 Japanese workers: Retrospective cross-sectional study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio & Adalgisa Perrelli, 2024. "Individual and regional determinants of women’s participation in the European labour market: a Labour Force Survey empirical study," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 71(4), pages 785-812, December.

  61. Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T., 2006. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 335-339, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  62. Friedberg Leora & Owyang Michael T & Sinclair Tara M, 2006. "Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-42, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  63. Neville R. Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2005. "What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  64. Francis, Neville & Owyang, Michael T., 2005. "Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 305-313, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1880-1887, December.
    2. Collard , F. & Patrick F ve & Julien Matheron, 2007. "The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies," Working papers 190, Banque de France.
    3. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    5. Ming‐Yuan Leon Li, 2009. "The dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets under high and low variance regimes," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 696-718, November.
    6. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    8. Ali Taiebnia & Shapour Mohammadi, 2023. "Forecast accuracy of the linear and nonlinear autoregressive models in macroeconomic modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2045-2062, December.
    9. Carol Alexander & Andreas Kaeck, 2006. "Regimes in CDS Spreads: A Markov Switching Model of iTraxx Europe Indices," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2006-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2016. "Oil prices and stock returns: nonlinear links across sectors," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(2), pages 79-97, August.
    12. Warne Anders & Vredin Anders, 2006. "Unemployment and Inflation Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-52, May.

  65. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  66. Thomas A. Garrett & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2005. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 123-135.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  67. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2004. "Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jan), pages 33-48.

    Cited by:

    1. Berlemann, Michael, 2016. "Does hurricane risk affect individual well-being? Empirical evidence on the indirect effects of natural disasters," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 99-113.

  68. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  69. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2003. "The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Nov), pages 53-66.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  70. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2003. "Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 12-13.

    Cited by:

    1. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2025. "Energy in turmoil: Industry resilience to uncertainty during the global energy crisis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 389(C).

  71. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2003. "Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 4-9.

    Cited by:

    1. Ribar, David C., 2004. "What Do Social Scientists Know About the Benefits of Marriage? A Review of Quantitative Methodologies," IZA Discussion Papers 998, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Petersen, Trond & Penner, Andrew M. & Høgnsnes, Geir, 2010. "The Within-Job Motherhood Wage Penalty in Norway, 1979–1996," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt4h8849rq, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    3. Trond Petersen & Andrew M. Penner & Geir Høgsnes, 2011. "The Male Marital Wage Premium: Sorting Vs. Differential Pay," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(2), pages 283-304, January.

  72. Leora Freidberg & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jan.), pages 23-34.

    Cited by:

    1. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure," NBER Working Papers 10714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Antonio Torrero Mañas, 2005. "The increasing relevance of the stock market in the world: A new scenario," Working Papers 01/05, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    3. Friedberg, Leora & Leive, Adam & Cai, Wenqiang, 2024. "Does mandatory retirement saving crowd out voluntary retirement saving?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 20-36.
    4. Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2003. "Retirement and the Evolution of Pension Structure," NBER Working Papers 9999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  73. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Nov), pages 7-18.

    Cited by:

    1. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "Iluzii financiare, Partea întâi [Financial Illusions, Part 1]," MPRA Paper 101201, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    2. Marnix Van Soom & Milan Van Den Heuvel & Jan Ryckebusch & Koen Schoors, 2019. "Loan Maturity Aggregation In Interbank Lending Networks Obscures Mesoscale Structure And Economic Functions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/952, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Panetta, Fabio & Correa, Ricardo & Davies, Michael & Di Cesare, Antonio & Marques, José-Manuel & Nadal de Simone, Francisco & Signoretti, Federico & Vespro, Cristina & Vildo, Siret & Wieland, Martin &, 2011. "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions," MPRA Paper 32581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2017. "Economic costs of alternative monetary policy responses to speculative currency attacks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 419-434.
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Hooy Chee Wooi, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Asian Financial Crisis: Evidence from South Korea and ASEAN-5," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 237-264.
    6. Dohmen, T.J. & Lehmann, H. & Schaffer, M.E., 2013. "Wage policies of a Russian firm and the financial crisis of 1998: Evidence from personnel data 1997 to 2002," Research Memorandum 042, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Time-varying energy and stock market integration in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 777-792.
    8. Sedunov, John, 2016. "What is the systemic risk exposure of financial institutions?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    9. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Rachel Szymanski & Viktor Tsyrennikov & Hong Yang, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?," IMF Working Papers 2017/058, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Alexander Erler & Steffen Sirries & Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: New Evidence from Treatment-effect Estimations," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 470-485, August.
    11. Paula Marina Sarno & Norberto Montani Martins, 2018. "Derivatives, financial fragility and systemic risk: lessons from Barings Bank, Long-Term Capital Management, Lehman Brothers and AIG," Working Papers PKWP1812, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    12. Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & David Easley, 2022. "Learning Financial Networks with High-frequency Trade Data," Papers 2208.03568, arXiv.org.
    13. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    14. Aitor Erce, 2013. "Sovereign debt restructurings and the IMF: implications for future official interventions," Globalization Institute Working Papers 143, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2016. "Do population age groups matter in the energy use of the oil-exporting countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 82-99.
    16. Dobler, Constanze & Hagemann, Harald, 2011. "Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991: The role of Institutions," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 34/2011, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    17. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.
    18. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Slacik, Tomás, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Alicia García-Herrero & Luis Molina, 2006. "What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?," Working Papers 0617, Banco de España.
    20. Roni Frish, 2016. "Currency Crises and Real Exchange Rate Depreciation," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.01, Bank of Israel.
    21. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de España.
    22. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp797, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    23. Abroskin A.S. (Аброскин, А.С.) & Abroskina N.A. (Аброскина, Н.А.), 2016. "Shadow Cross-Border Capital Flows: Contemporary Concepts, Principles and Information Base of Accounting and Measurement [Теневые Трансграничные Потоки Капитала: Современные Концепции, Принципы И Информационная База Учета И Измерения]," Working Papers 2135, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    24. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    25. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, 2010. "An almost‐too‐late warning mechanism for currency crises1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(1), pages 123-141, January.
    26. Flores Zendejas, Juan, 2015. "Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers unige:73325, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    27. Vitor Gaspar & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Stability First: Reflections Inspired by Otmar Issing's Success as the ECB's Chief Economist," NBER Working Papers 12277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Stephan Barisitz, 2004. "Distorted Incentives Fading?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 122-152.
    29. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2015. "To intervene, or not to intervene: Monetary policy and the costs of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 432-456.
    30. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "The role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings: Implications for the policy of lending into arrears," Occasional Papers 0805, Banco de España.
    31. Masataka Eguchi & Toshiya Hatano, 2023. "What is fiscal sustainability?―Transversality condition, Domar condition, the fiscal theory of the price level―," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 1-29, September.
    32. Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Allena Rohit, 2025. "A model of contagion without trading relations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-34, February.
    33. Miljkovic, Dragan & Glazyrina, Anna, 2015. "The impact of socio-economic policy on total fertility rate in Russia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 961-973.
    34. Gina Ioan, 2012. "The Economic Crises of the Last Two Decades - Ignored Warnings," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 23-29, May.

  74. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "For love or money: why married men make more," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 10-11.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Le, 2013. "Estimating returns to education when the IV sample is selective," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 74-85.
    2. Ribar, David C., 2004. "What Do Social Scientists Know About the Benefits of Marriage? A Review of Quantitative Methodologies," IZA Discussion Papers 998, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Kerr, Amanda, 2023. "A shortage of brides: China’s one child policy and transitions of men into marriage," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 310-321.
    4. Trond Petersen & Andrew M. Penner & Geir Høgsnes, 2011. "The Male Marital Wage Premium: Sorting Vs. Differential Pay," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(2), pages 283-304, January.
    5. Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Fujimoto, Junichi, 2020. "Non-regular employment over the life-cycle: Worker flow analysis for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2009. "Contest Theory and its Applications in Sports," Working Papers 0913, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists, revised Mar 2011.
    7. Petersen, Trond & Penner, Andrew & Hogsnes, Geir, 2007. "From Motherhood Penalties to Fatherhood Premia: The New Challenge for Family Policy," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt9fw3f7vj, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    8. Petersen, Trond & Penner, Andrew & Hogsnes, Geir, 2006. "The Male Marital Wage Premium: Sorting Versus Differential Pay," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt2053f73v, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    9. Julen Esteban‐Pretel & Junichi Fujimoto, 2022. "How do marital formation and dissolution differ across employment statuses? Analysis of Japanese non‐regular employees," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 425-461, December.

  75. Michael T. Owyang, 2001. "Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Nov.), pages 41-52.

    Cited by:

    1. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Equilibrium indeterminacy and sunspot tales," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Michael J. Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Aug 2022.
    4. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Wang, Miao & Wong, M.C. Sunny, 2005. "Learning dynamics in monetary policy: The robustness of an aggressive inflation stabilizing policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-151, March.
    7. Ewing, Bradley T. & Seyfried, William L, 2003. "Modeling The Philips Curve: A Time-Varying Volatility Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    8. Jim Granato & Melody Lo & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2006. "Testing Monetary Policy Intentions in Open Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 730-746, January.

Chapters

  1. Laura E. Jackson & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Michael T. Owyang, 2016. "Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 361-400, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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