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How Can The Government Spending Multiplier Be Small At The Zero Lower Bound?

Author

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  • Ercolani, Valerio
  • Valle e Azevedo, João

Abstract

Some recent empirical evidence questions the typically large size of government spending multipliers when the nominal interest rate is stuck at zero, finding output multipliers of around 1 or even lower, with an upper bound of around 1.5 in some circumstances. In this paper, we use a recent estimate of the degree of substitutability between private and government consumption in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to show that this channel significantly reduces the size of government spending multipliers obtained when the nominal interest rate is at zero. All else being equal, the relationship of substitutability makes a government spending shock crowd out private consumption while being less inflationary, thus, limiting the typically expansionary effect of the fall in the real interest rate. Subject to the nominal interest rate being constrained at zero, the model generates output multipliers ranging from 0.8 to 1.6.

Suggested Citation

  • Ercolani, Valerio & Valle e Azevedo, João, 2019. "How Can The Government Spending Multiplier Be Small At The Zero Lower Bound?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3457-3482, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:8:p:3457-3482_14
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Marco Mazzali, 2025. "The Size and Uncertainty of Government Spending Multipliers in Italian Regions," Working Papers wp1216, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    5. Troug, Haytem, 2019. "Monetary Policy with Non-Separable Government Spending," MPRA Paper 92323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2020. "Spend today or spend tomorrow? The role of inflation expectations in consumer behaviour," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1276, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Ngo, Phuong V., 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers At The Zero Lower Bound: The Role Of Government Spending Persistence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 970-997, June.
    8. Aloui, Rym, 2024. "Habit formation and the government spending multiplier," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Shvets, Serhii, 2020. "The golden rule of public finance under active monetary stance: endogenous setting for a developing economy," MPRA Paper 101232, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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