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Female labour force projections using microsimulation for six EU countries

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  • Ross Richardson
  • Lia Pacelli
  • Ambra Poggi
  • Matteo G. Richiardi

Abstract

We project medium to long term trends in labour force participation and employment for selected low-participation EU countries (Italy, Spain, Ireland, Hungary and Greece), with Sweden as a benchmark, by means of a dynamic microsimulation model. By 2020, only Sweden will be above the Europe 2020 target of 75% employment rate, though Ireland will be close; the target will be approached by all other countries only at the end of the simulation period at 2050, with the exception of Hungary. Our forecasts, that fully take into account the uncertainty coming from the estimation of all the processes in the microsimulation, significantly depart from the official projections of the European Commission for two of the six countries under analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Richardson & Lia Pacelli & Ambra Poggi & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2016. "Female labour force projections using microsimulation for six EU countries," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 148, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:148
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    Cited by:

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    2. Richiardi, Matteo & He, Zhechun, 2020. "Measuring economic insecurity: a simulation approach," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA2/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Filandri, Marianna & Pasqua, Silvia, 2019. "Gender discrimination in academic careers in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201921, University of Turin.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Microsimulation; labour supply; female participation; gender gap; uncertainty analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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