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Sensitivitätsanalysen zur Quantifizierung von Unsicherheiten in zeitdiskreten dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodellen

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Pablo Burgard

    (Universität Trier)

  • Simon Schmaus

    (Universität Trier)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung In dynamischen Mikrosimulationen wird die Entwicklung von Populationen auf der Ebene von Personen und Haushalten simuliert, wodurch die Populationsdynamik viel detaillierter abgebildet werden kann als mit herkömmlichen Prognosemodellen auf Makroebene. Diese feine Granularität führt jedoch dazu, dass die Einflüsse von Modellierungsentscheidungen und Modellunsicherheiten deutlich stärker hervortreten. Daher ist eine eingehende Auseinandersetzung mit den verschiedenen Arten von Unsicherheit im Simulationsmodell erforderlich. Wir schlagen vor, varianzbasierte Sensitivitätsanalysen zur Analyse von Unsicherheiten und Szenarien in Mikrosimulationen einzusetzen. Diese sind bereits ein etabliertes Instrument zur Untersuchung von Unsicherheiten, etwa bei der Messung zusammengesetzter Indikatoren. Im Kontext von Mikrosimulationen fehlt bisher eine klare Formulierung und anwendungsorientierte Anleitung. Anhand eines Praxisbeispiels wird exemplarisch gezeigt, wie Unsicherheiten mit Sensitivitätsanalysen bewertet werden können. Zudem wird aufgezeigt, dass Sensitivitätsanalysen auch zur Abwägung verschiedener politischer Maßnahmen genutzt werden können. Dies ist insbesondere dann unabdingbar, wenn verschiedene Maßnahmen mit intertemporalen oder interregionalen Wechselwirkungen untersucht werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Pablo Burgard & Simon Schmaus, 2025. "Sensitivitätsanalysen zur Quantifizierung von Unsicherheiten in zeitdiskreten dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodellen," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 19(1), pages 79-105, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:19:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11943-025-00356-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-025-00356-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ross Richardson & Lia Pacelli & Ambra Poggi & Matteo Richiardi, 2018. "Female Labour Force Projections Using Microsimulation for Six EU Countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(2), pages 5-51.
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    1. Jan Pablo Burgard & Markus Zwick, 2025. "Vorwort der Herausgeber," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 19(1), pages 1-3, June.

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