IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_943_13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign risk, monetary policy and fiscal multipliers: a structural model-based assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Locarno

    (Banca d�Italia)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro
  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper briefly reviews the literature on fiscal multipliers and then presents results for the Italian economy obtained by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model that allows for the possibility (a) that the zero lower bound may be binding and (b) that the initial public debt-to-GDP ratio may affect the financing conditions of the public and private sectors (sovereign risk channel). The results are the following. First, the public consumption multiplier is in general less than 1. Second, it goes above 1 only under extremely strong assumptions, namely the constancy of the monetary policy rate for an exceptionally long period (at least five years) and there is full time-coincidence between the fiscal and the monetary stimuli. Third, when the sovereign risk channel is active the government spending multiplier is much lower. Finally, in all cases tax multipliers are lower than government consumption multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Sovereign risk, monetary policy and fiscal multipliers: a structural model-based assessment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 943, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_943_13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0943/en_tema_943.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Roberto perotti, 2011. "Expectations and Fiscal Policy: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 429, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    4. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    5. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2008. "Twin Deficits, Openness, and the Business Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 404-413, 04-05.
    7. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido, 2003. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 104, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 99-132, February.
    9. Forni, Lorenzo & Gerali, Andrea & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1791-1812, September.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    11. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2012. "Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1563-1587, December.
    12. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    13. Christiane Nickel & Andreas Tudyka, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1313-1344, October.
    14. Stefano Neri, 2014. "The Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crisis on Bank Lending Rates in the Euro Area," Rivista Bancaria - Minerva Bancaria, Istituto di Cultura Bancaria Francesco Parrillo, issue 5-6, September.
    15. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    16. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    17. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    18. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, February.
    19. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    20. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    22. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    23. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    24. Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(2), pages 33-58.
    25. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Pisani, M., 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Greater Competition In The Service Sector: The Case Of Italy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 677-708, November.
    26. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    27. Albertazzi, Ugo & Ropele, Tiziano & Sene, Gabriele & Signoretti, Federico Maria, 2014. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 387-402.
    28. Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2013/093, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    30. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    31. Ms. Edda Zoli, 2013. "Italian Sovereign Spreads: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2013/084, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    33. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    2. Antonio Bassanetti & Matteo Bugamelli & Sandro Momigliano & Roberto Sabbatini & Francesco Zollino, 2014. "The policy response to macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances in Italy in the last fifteen years," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(268), pages 55-103.
    3. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    4. Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Every cloud has a silver lining. The sovereign crisis and Italian potential output," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1010, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Covid-19 Shock and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Monetary Union," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, pages 233-266, Springer.
    6. Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of simultaneous implementation of reforms after the crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 997, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Piacentini, Paolo & Prezioso, Stefano & Testa, Giuseppina, 2015. "Effects of fiscal policy in the North and South of Italy," MPRA Paper 62372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. de Walque, Gregory & Pisani, Massimiliano & Kilponen, Juha & Thomas, Carlos & Hlédik, Tibor & Hurtado, Samuel & Hollmayr, Josef & Corbo, Vesna & Schmidt, Sebastian & Micallef, Brian & Maria, José R. &, 2015. "Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe," Working Paper Series 1760, European Central Bank.
    9. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, 2022. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Colombia: An Empirical Exploration of the Credit Risk Channel," Borradores de Economia 1196, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Lozano-Espitia, Ignacio & Arias-Rodríguez, Fernando, 2022. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Colombia: An Empirical Exploration of the Credit Channel," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. AMENDOLA, Adalgiso & DI SERIO, Mario & FRAGETTA, Matteo, 2018. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the Euro Area," CELPE Discussion Papers 153, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    2. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    5. Marco Riguzzi & Philipp Wegmueller, 2017. "Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-35, January.
    6. Menzie Chinn, 2013. "fiscal multipliers," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    8. Javier Andrés & José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household Leverage and Fiscal Multipliers," Working Papers 1103, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    9. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    10. Banerjee, Ryan & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2019. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 420-436.
    11. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    12. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 8891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Mathias Klein & Roland Winkler, 2021. "The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evidence from historical data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 744-759, September.
    15. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger, 2020. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1262-1294, December.
    16. Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2019. "The effects of fiscal policy on output: Does the business cycle matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 27-36.
    17. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    18. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    19. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers across the credit cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-151.
    20. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multiplier; monetary policy; zero lower bound; sovereign risk.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_943_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.