IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Asymetria relacji cen paliw płynnych w Polsce i cen ropy naftowej

Listed author(s):
  • Robert Socha
Registered author(s):

    Celem artykułu jest próba odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy w warunkach polskiego rynku paliwowego możemy mówić o istnieniu asymetrii w relacji między cenami paliw a cenami ropy naftowej, a więc sytuacji, w której ceny paliw zmieniają się szybciej, gdy cena surowca na światowym rynku wzrasta, niż gdy spada. W ramach weryfikacji powyższej hipotezy posłużono się analizą kointegracji, a następnie asymetrycznym modelem korekty błędem (Error Correction Model, ECM) oraz modelem ECM z relacją kointegrującą zdefiniowaną w postaci progowej autoregresji TAR (Threshold Autoregressive, TAR lub Momentum Threshold Autoregressive, MTAR). Otrzymane rezultaty pozwalają uznać za wysoce prawdopodobne, iż asymetryczny charakter relacji cen paliw z ceną ropy naftowej dotyczy gazu LPG i oleju napędowego, a nie dotyczy cen benzyny. Szczególnie w przypadku oleju napędowego widoczna jest niemal dwukrotnie szybsza reakcja na wzrost cen ropy naftowej, niż spadek cen surowca. Takie wyniki mogą być tłumaczone na tle różnic cenowych między cenami poszczególnych paliw oraz różnic w strukturze ich odbiorców. Benzyna to paliwo o najwyższym poziomie cen, dla konsumentów stanowi wyznacznik sytuacji na krajowym rynku paliwowym. Wzrost cen ropy naftowej na światowych rynkach obserwowany po 2004 r. przekładał się niemal w całości na coraz to wyższy poziom cen benzyny na stacjach paliw, co z kolei mogło wpłynąć na skłonność konsumentów do poszukiwania informacji na temat różnic cenowych między poszczególnymi sprzedawcami paliw. Sprzedawcy świadomi, iż wśród nabywców benzyny dominują głównie gospodarstwa domowe, mogą szybciej dostosowywać ceny benzyny do zmian zachodzących na rynku, niż w przypadku oleju napędowego, którego nabywcami są głównie podmioty gospodarcze.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://gospodarkanarodowa.sgh.waw.pl/p/gospodarka_narodowa_2014_05_06.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Warsaw School of Economics in its journal Gospodarka Narodowa.

    Volume (Year): (2014)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 133-160

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2014:i:5:p:133-160
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warszawa

    Phone: + (48)(22) 49 12 51
    Fax: + (48)(22) 49 53 12
    Web page: http://gospodarkanarodowa.sgh.waw.pl/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    2. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    3. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
    4. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    5. Nodir Adilov & Hedayeh Samavati, 2009. "Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, March.
    6. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
    7. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 988-1000, March.
    8. Al-Gudhea, Salim & Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2007. "Do retail gasoline prices rise more readily than they fall?: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 560-574.
    9. Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2003. "New Evidence on Asymmetric Gasoline Price Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 772-776, August.
    10. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    11. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Radchenko, Stanislav, 2005. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil prices: The role of short-term and long-term shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 573-602, July.
    14. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
    15. Radchenko, Stanislav, 2005. "Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 708-730, September.
    16. Jordi Perdiguero-García, 2010. "“Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A metaanalysis approach”," IREA Working Papers 201013, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    17. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Sen, Anindya, 2003. "Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 269-288, May.
    19. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    20. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11.
    21. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2014:i:5:p:133-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dariusz Nojszewski)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.