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The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002

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  • Ann Huff Stevens

Abstract

This study considers whether there has been a decline in the attachment of workers and firms in the United States over the past several decades. Specifically, it compares snapshots of job tenure taken at the end of workers' careers from 1969 to 2002, using data from the Retirement History Survey, the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men, and the Health and Retirement Study. The primary finding is one of stability in the prevalence of long-term employment relationships for men in the United States. In 1969, average tenure in the longest job for males aged 58-62 was 21.9 years. In 2002, the comparable figure was 21.4 years. Just over half of men ending their careers in 1969 had been with a single employer for at least 20 years; the same is true in 2002. This finding is robust to adjustments for minor differences in question details across data sources and for educational and retirement age changes over this time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann Huff Stevens, 2005. "The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002," NBER Working Papers 11878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11878
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    Cited by:

    1. Luc Behaghel & Julie Moschion, 2011. "Skilled labor supply, IT-based technical change and job instability," Working Papers halshs-00646595, HAL.
    2. Miikka Rokkanen & Roope Uusitalo, 2013. "Changes in Job Stability – Evidence from Lifetime Job Histories," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 36-55, Autumn.
    3. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Is the Company Man an Anachronism? Trends in Long Term Employment in the U.S., 1973-2006," Working Papers 1039, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1041, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1068, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. Henry R. Hyatt & James R. Spletzer, 2016. "The Shifting Job Tenure Distribution†," Working Papers 16-12r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2016. "The shifting job tenure distribution," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 363-377.
    8. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 2009. "The Rising Instability of U.S. Earnings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:171farber is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Luc Behaghel & Eve Caroli & Emmanuelle Walkowiak, 2012. "Information and communication technologies and skill upgrading: the role of internal vs external labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 490-517, July.
    11. Dynan Karen & Elmendorf Douglas & Sichel Daniel, 2012. "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, December.
    12. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1055, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1041, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    14. repec:pri:cepsud:172farber is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Henry S. Farber, 2010. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 223-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bernhardt, Annette, 2014. "Labor Standards and the Reorganization of Work: Gaps in Data and Research," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3hc6t3d5, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    17. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1068, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    18. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1055, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    19. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1056, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Employment Insecurity: The Decline in Worker-Firm Attachment in the United States," Working Papers 1056, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    21. David Brauer, 2007. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Working Paper 2007-06," Working Papers 18566, Congressional Budget Office.
    22. Espen Bratberg & Kjell G. Salvanes & Kjell Vaage, 2010. "Has Job Stability Decreased? Population Data from a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 163-183, March.
    23. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Is the Company Man an Anachronism? Trends in Long Term Employment in the U.S., 1973-20061," Working Papers 1039, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    24. Alicia H. Munnell & Dan Muldoon & Steven A. Sass, 2009. "Recessions and Older Workers," Issues in Brief ib2009-9-2, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jan 2009.

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    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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