IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb373/199960.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Job stability trends and labor market (re-)entry in West Germany 1984 - 1997

Author

Listed:
  • Mertens, Antje

Abstract

This paper investigates whether job stability in western Germany shows any signs of decline and compares the findings to evidence for the US and the UK. Cross sectional data and calendar information from the German Socioeconomic Panel 1984-1997 are combined allowing to check possible influences of oversampling long jobs in cross sectional data. Three different measures are looked at. All indicate that there is a decline in job stability, not fully explained by the business cycle: median elapsed tenure of male workers declined from around 10 years to 8.5, the probability to be in short jobs seems to increase relatively steadily for both males and females, and the hazard for job ending has become increasingly higher despite the fact that the economy experienced the post-unification boom and the current recession. Cox proportional hazard models for different groups in the labor market show that men and women are equally affected. Part-time workers, although generally more likely to end their job, have suffered less. As outsiders are more likely to have difficulties finding stable jobs in rough times separate analyses are carried out those who have entered the job directly from unemployment or non-participation and workers who enter the labor market having just finished their highest degree. These are compared to the insiders who switch jobs directly. While insiders are less likely to leave their new job, outsiders face increasing risks of job termination.

Suggested Citation

  • Mertens, Antje, 1999. "Job stability trends and labor market (re-)entry in West Germany 1984 - 1997," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,60, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/61760/1/722298854.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, Alison L & Francesconi, Marco & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos, 1997. "Job Tenure: Does History Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    4. Jaeger, David A & Stevens, Ann Huff, 1999. "Is Job Stability in the United States Falling? Reconciling Trends in the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 1-28, October.
    5. Henry S. Farber, 1995. "Are Lifetime Jobs Disappearing? Job Duration in the United States: 1973-1993," NBER Working Papers 5014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Henry S. Farber, 1998. "Mobility and Stability: The Dynamics of Job Change in Labor Markets," Working Papers 779, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    7. Farber, Henry S, 1994. "The Analysis of Interfirm Worker Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 554-593, October.
    8. Hall, Robert E, 1982. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 716-724, September.
    9. Henry S. Farber, 1998. "Mobility and Stability: The Dynamics of Job Change in Labor Markets," Working Papers 779, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. Ureta, Manuelita, 1992. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 322-335, March.
    11. Henry S. Farber, 1995. "Are Lifetime Jobs Disappearing? Job Duration in the United States: 1973-1993," Working Papers 720, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    12. A. Werwatz, 1997. "Mobility after Apprenticeship- How effective is the German apprenticeship system?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,75, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    13. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    14. Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-1381, September.
    15. repec:fth:prinin:400 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
    17. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    18. Diebold, Francis X & Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel, 1997. "Job Stability in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 206-233, April.
    19. Jaeger, David A. & Stevens, Ann Huff, 1999. "Is Job Stability in the United States Falling?," IZA Discussion Papers 35, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    job stability; labor mobility; duration analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sfhubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.