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Job stability trends and labor market (re-)entry in West Germany 1984 - 1997

  • Mertens, Antje
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    This paper investigates whether job stability in western Germany shows any signs of decline and compares the findings to evidence for the US and the UK. Cross sectional data and calendar information from the German Socioeconomic Panel 1984-1997 are combined allowing to check possible influences of oversampling long jobs in cross sectional data. Three different measures are looked at. All indicate that there is a decline in job stability, not fully explained by the business cycle: median elapsed tenure of male workers declined from around 10 years to 8.5, the probability to be in short jobs seems to increase relatively steadily for both males and females, and the hazard for job ending has become increasingly higher despite the fact that the economy experienced the post-unification boom and the current recession. Cox proportional hazard models for different groups in the labor market show that men and women are equally affected. Part-time workers, although generally more likely to end their job, have suffered less. As outsiders are more likely to have difficulties finding stable jobs in rough times separate analyses are carried out those who have entered the job directly from unemployment or non-participation and workers who enter the labor market having just finished their highest degree. These are compared to the insiders who switch jobs directly. While insiders are less likely to leave their new job, outsiders face increasing risks of job termination.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/61760/1/722298854.pdf
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    Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 1999,60.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199960
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    1. A. Werwatz, 1997. "Mobility after Apprenticeship- How effective is the German apprenticeship system?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,75, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1982. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 716-24, September.
    3. Ureta, Manuelita, 1992. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 322-35, March.
    4. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
    5. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Booth, Alison L & Francesconi, Marco & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos, 1997. "Job Tenure: Does History Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Katz, Lawrence F & Murphy, Kevin M, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78, February.
    8. Henry S. Farber, 1998. "Mobility and Stability: The Dynamics of Job Change in Labor Markets," Working Papers 779, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Farber, Henry S, 1994. "The Analysis of Interfirm Worker Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 554-93, October.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel, 1997. "Job Stability in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 206-33, April.
    11. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
    12. Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-81, September.
    13. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
    14. Hilmar Schneider & Anette Bergemann, 1998. "Ist der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt beweglicher geworden? - Eine Analyse anhand der Unternehmenszugehörigkeitsdauer in Westdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 4(11), pages 15-21.
    15. Kenneth A. Swinnerton & Howard Wial, 1995. "Is job stability declining in the U.S. economy?," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 48(2), pages 293-304, January.
    16. Henry S. Farber, 1995. "Are Lifetime Jobs Disappearing? Job Duration in the United States: 1973-1993," NBER Working Papers 5014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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