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Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Transitions to Unemployment - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany

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  • Mertens, Antje
  • Bergemann, Annette

Abstract

This Paper studies the evolution of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we first show that the median elapsed tenure declined for men between 1984 and 1999. Second, estimating proportional Cox hazard models with competing risks and controls for stock sampling, we are able to distinguish the reasons for job separation and different transition states. We show that the decline in the stability of men?s jobs can be attributed partly to an increase in layoffs and partly to an increase in transitions to unemployment. These two developments are not significantly related to each other, however. Some evidence is presented that downsizing of large firms might be responsible for part of the decline in job stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mertens, Antje & Bergemann, Annette, 2004. "Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Transitions to Unemployment - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 4792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4792
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    2. Boockmann, Bernhard & Hagen, Tobias, 2008. "Fixed-term contracts as sorting mechanisms: Evidence from job durations in West Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 984-1005, October.
    3. Goerke, Laszlo & Pannenberg, Markus, 2011. "Trade union membership and dismissals," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 810-821.
    4. Anna Manzoni & Ruud Luijkx & Ruud Muffels, 2011. "Explaining differences in labour market transitions between panel and life-course data in West-Germany," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 241-261, February.
    5. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2010. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 291-330, April.
    6. Bachmann Ronald & Schmidt Christoph M. & Henssler Martin & Talmann Anna, 2012. "Gefährdung der Solidarität oder Aufbruch in die Moderne? Die Auswirkungen der Tarifpluralität auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 61(2), pages 135-151, August.
    7. Bachmann, Ronald & Henssler, Martin & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Talmann, Anna, 2011. "Empirische Analyse der Auswirkungen der Tarifpluralität auf das deutsche Tarifvertragssystem und auf die Häufigkeit von Arbeitskämpfen: Enbericht - Februar 2011," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69956.
    8. Matthias Dütsch & Olaf Struck, 2014. "Employment trajectories in Germany: do firm characteristics and regional disparities matter? [Erwerbsverläufe in Deutschland: Zur Bedeutung betrieblicher Charakteristika und regionaler Disparitäten," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 47(1), pages 107-127, March.
    9. Karsten Wasiluk, 2014. "Technology Adoption and Demographic Change," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    10. Haile, Getinet Astatike, 2009. "The Nature and Extent of Job Separations in Germany: Some New Evidence from SOEP," IZA Discussion Papers 4216, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Thomas Zwick, 2012. "Consequences of Seniority Wages on the Employment Structure," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(1), pages 108-125, January.
    12. Espen Bratberg & Kjell G. Salvanes & Kjell Vaage, 2010. "Has Job Stability Decreased? Population Data from a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 163-183, March.
    13. Knut Gerlach & Gesine Stephan, 2008. "A Note on Job Tenure and Collective Contracts," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(1), pages 167-183, March.
    14. Christian Pfeifer, 2007. "The Perceived Fairness of Layoffs in Germany: Participation, Compensation, or Avoidance?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 25-36, August.
    15. Thomas Leoni & Helmut Mahringer, 2008. "Fehlzeitenreport 2008. Krankheits- und unfallbedingte Fehlzeiten in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34220, April.
    16. Neumann, Uwe & Schaffner, Sandra & Eilers, Lea, 2019. "Bedeutung finanzieller Grundkompetenzen aus regionaler Perspektive. Gefördert durch die Dr. Josef und Brigitte Pauli-Stiftung," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 222358.
    17. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2008. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Working Papers 1111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job stability; Labour mobility; Layoffs; Duration analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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