IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/4568.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fixed-term Contracts as Sorting Mechanisms: Evidence From Job Durations in West Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Boockmann, Bernhard
  • Hagen, Tobias

Abstract

We estimate the effect of initial episodes under fixed-term contracts (FTCs) on job duration in the further course of the employment spell, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1985 to 2002. Using a statistical matching approach, we find that job exit rates are initially much higher if the employment spell began with an FTC. However, exit rates fall below those of comparable spells spent entirely in permanent employment after a few years time. This suggests that FTCs accelerate a sorting process and that they may at least to some part be understood as prolonged probationary periods. Strikingly, the probability of long-term employment of more than five years duration is not lower in spells that are initially concluded as FTCs. Hence, the sorting processes taking place in both forms of contracts seem to be of similar intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Boockmann, Bernhard & Hagen, Tobias, 2005. "Fixed-term Contracts as Sorting Mechanisms: Evidence From Job Durations in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-85, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24181/1/dp0585.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, Alison L. & Francesconi, Marco & Frank, Jeff, 2002. "Labour as a buffer: do temporary workers suffer?," ISER Working Paper Series 2002-29, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2008. "From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: what can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 305-327.
    3. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 189-213, June.
    4. McGinnity, Frances & Mertens, Antje, 2002. "Fixed-term contracts in East and West Germany: Low wages, poor prospects?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,72, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Bergemann, Annette & Mertens, Antje, 2000. "Job stability trends, layoffs and quits: An empirical analysis for West Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,102, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
    7. Bernhard Boockmann & Susanne Steffes, 2010. "Workers, Firms, or Institutions: What Determines Job Duration for Male Employees in Germany?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(1), pages 109-127, October.
    8. Larsson, Laura & Lindqvist, Linus & Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2005. "Stepping-stones or dead-ends? An analysis of Swedish replacement contracts," Working Paper Series 2005:18, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    9. Engellandt, Axel & Riphahn, Regina T., 2005. "Temporary contracts and employee effort," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 281-299, June.
    10. Marloes de Graaf-Zijl & Gerard van den Berg & Arjan Heyma, 2011. "Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 107-139, January.
    11. Pedro Portugal & José Varejão, 2003. "Why do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," Working Papers w200308, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Augustin Landier, 2001. "The Perverse Effects of Partial Labor Market Reform: Fixed Duration Contracts in France," NBER Working Papers 8219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2008. "Dynamic Treatment Assignment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 435-445.
    14. Wolff, Joachim, 2004. "The Duration of New Job Matches in East and West Germany," Discussion Papers in Economics 360, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Gerard J. van den Berg & Anders Holm & Jan C. van Ours, 2002. "Do stepping-stone jobs exist? Early career paths in the medical profession," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 647-665.
    16. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    17. Gibbons, Robert & Murphy, Kevin J, 1992. "Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 468-505, June.
    18. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2000. "The Political Economy of Labour Market Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293323.
    19. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(1), pages 59-82, February.
    20. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    21. Edwin Leuven & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "PSMATCH2: Stata module to perform full Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, common support graphing, and covariate imbalance testing," Statistical Software Components S432001, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2018.
    22. Juan F. Jimeno & Luis Toharia, 1993. "The effects of fixed-term employment on wages: theory and evidence from Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 475-494, September.
    23. Bergemann, Annette & Mertens, Antje, 2004. "Job Stability Trends, Layoffs, and Transitions to Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis for West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1368, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Boeri, Tito, 1999. "Enforcement of employment security regulations, on-the-job search and unemployment duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-89, January.
    25. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    26. Bentolila, Samuel & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "The macroeconomic impact of flexible labor contracts, with an application to Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1013-1047, June.
    27. Barbara Sianesi, 2001. "Propensity score matching," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2001 12, Stata Users Group, revised 23 Aug 2001.
    28. Hagen, Tobias, 2003. "Do Fixed-Term Contracts Increase the Long-Term Employment Opportunities of the Unemployed?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-49, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    29. Marianne Simonsen & Lars Skipper, 2004. "Identifying Direct and Indirect Effects. Estimating th Costs of Motherhood Using Matching Estimators," Discussion Papers 03-023, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Wang, Ruqu & Weiss, Andrew, 1998. "Probation, layoffs, and wage-tenure profiles: A sorting explanation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 359-383, September.
    31. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
    2. Renato Faccini, 2014. "Reassessing Labour Market Reforms: Temporary Contracts as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 167-200, March.
    3. Hagen, Tobias, 2003. "Do Fixed-Term Contracts Increase the Long-Term Employment Opportunities of the Unemployed?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-49, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Bukowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr & Koloch, Grzegorz & Baranowska, Anna & Magda, Iga & Szydlowski, Arkadiusz & Bober, Magda & Bieliński, Jacek & Zawistowski, Julian & Sarzalska, Malgorzata, 2008. "Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market," MPRA Paper 14284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lia Pacelli & Silvia Pasqua & Claudia Villosio, 2007. "What Does the Stork Bring to Women’s Working Career?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 58, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    6. Diego Daruich & Sabrina Di Addario & Raffaele Saggio, 2020. "The Effects of Partial Employment Protection Reforms: Evidence from Italy," Development Working Papers 463, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 27 Apr 2020.
    7. Michael Gebel, 2013. "Is a Temporary Job Better than Unemployment?: A Cross-Country Comparison Based on British, German, and Swiss Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 543, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    8. Pauline Givord & Lionel Wilner, 2015. "When Does the Stepping‐Stone Work? Fixed‐Term Contracts Versus Temporary Agency Work in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 787-805, August.
    9. repec:tur:wpaper:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elena Casquel & Antoni Cunyat, "undated". "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in an Economy with Nonclearing Markets," Working Papers 2005-19, FEDEA.
    11. Marta Silva & Luis Filipe Martins & Helena Lopes, 2015. "Asymmetric labour market reforms and wage growth with fixed-term contracts: does learning about match quality matter?," Working Papers Series 2 15-04, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    12. Alonso-Borrego, César & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2004. "Evaluating Labor Market Reforms: A General Equilibrium Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 1129, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. J Ignacio García-Pérez & Ioana Marinescu & Judit Vall Castello, 2019. "Can Fixed-term Contracts Put Low Skilled Youth on a Better Career Path? Evidence from Spain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1693-1730.
    14. Matteo Picchio & Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Are Temporary Jobs Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends? A Meta-Analytical Review Of The Literature," Working Papers 455, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2012. "Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 646-675, October.
    16. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2019. "Dual Labour Markets Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 12126, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Imanol Nunez & Ilias Livanos, 2015. "Temps “by choice”? An Investigation of the Reasons Behind Temporary Employment Among Young Workers in Europe," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 44-66, March.
    18. Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2006. "The role of job interruptions, temporary contracts and multi-firm experiences in the temporality trap in Spain," Working Papers 06.31, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    19. Cerulli-Harms, Annette, 2017. "Generation Internship: The Impact of Internships on Early Labour Market Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 11163, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Domenico Lisi & Miguel A. Malo, 2017. "The impact of temporary employment on productivity [Auswirkungen befristeter Beschäftigung auf die Produktivität]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 91-112, August.
    21. Marloes de Graaf-Zijl & Gerard van den Berg & Arjan Heyma, 2011. "Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 107-139, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed-term employment; probationary periods; job matching; duration analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.