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Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Quits - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Annette Bergemann

    () (University of Mannheim)

  • Antje Mertens

    () (Max Planck Institute)

Abstract

This paper studies signs and reasons of decline of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the longitudinal German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-1997 (about to be extended until 1999), we look at two measures for job stability. Based on repeated cross sectional data we first show that medium elapsed tenure declined for men. Secondly, we find that the measure of completed job duration can efficiently be used, to distinguish reasons for job termination and to surpass the problem of right censoring. Estimating the popular proportional Cox hazard model with competing risks, we show that the decline in stability of jobs of men beginning after 1984 can be attributed primarily to an increase in layoffs. We will extend the analysis by taking unobserved heterogeneity into account, exploiting the presence of multiple spells in the data.. Furthermore, we will include jobs which started before 1985 into the multivariate analysis by using a stock sampling approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Annette Bergemann & Antje Mertens, 2002. "Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Quits - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C1-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:c1-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Carlos Garcia-Serrano, 1999. "Job Tenure and Job Mobility in Britain," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(1), pages 43-70, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Givord, Pauline & Maurin, Eric, 2004. "Changes in job security and their causes: An empirical analysis for France, 1982-2002," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 595-615, June.
    2. Matouschek, Niko & Ramezzana, Paolo & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2004. "Labour Market Frictions, Job Insecurity and the Flexibility of the Employment Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 4193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Boockmann, Bernhard & Steffes, Susanne, 2005. "Individual and Plant-level Determinants of Job Durations in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-89, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Niko Matouschek & Paolo Ramezzana, 2004. "Labor Market Frictions, Job Insecurity, and the Flexibility of the Employment Relationship," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 28, Econometric Society.
    5. Boockmann, Bernhard & Hagen, Tobias, 2008. "Fixed-term contracts as sorting mechanisms: Evidence from job durations in West Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 984-1005, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job stability; labor mobility; layoffs; duration analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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