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Is job stability declining in Germany? Evidence from count data models

  • Rainer Winkelmann
  • Klaus Zimmermann

The macro evidence of increased adjustment pressure since the early 1970s suggests that job mobility should have increased. Hence, retrospective and spell data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are combined in order to test the hypothesis that job stability for German workers declined between 1974 and 1994. Using count data regression models in which we control for labour market experience, various demographic factors, and occupation, we find that job stability did not decrease, but if anything increased, between 1974 and 1994. Our finding suggests that labour market inflexibility is an important factor in explaining the European unemployment problem.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (1998)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 1413-1420

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:11:p:1413-1420
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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
  2. Katharine G. Abraham & Susan N. Houseman, 1993. "Earnings Inequality in Germany," NBER Working Papers 4541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Winkelmann, Rainer, 1995. "Duration Dependence and Dispersion in Count-Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 467-74, October.
  4. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "German Job Mobility and Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 4, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1988. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," NBER Working Papers 2649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Booth, Alison L & Francesconi, Marco & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos, 1997. "Job Tenure: Does History Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1995. " Recent Developments in Count Data Modelling: Theory and Application," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, March.
  8. Lucie MERKLE & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1992. "The Demographics of Labour Turnover : A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  9. Dove E. Marcofte, 1995. "Declining job stability: What we know and what it means," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 590-598.
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