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Is Job Stability Declining in Germany? Evidences from Count Data Models

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  • Winkelmann, Rainer

    () (University of Zurich)

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

The macro evidence of increased adjustment pressure since the early seventies suggests that job mobility should have increased. Hence, retrospective and spell data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are combined in order to test the hypothesis that job stability for German workers declined between 1974 and 1994. Using count data regression models in which we control for labour market experience, various demographic factors, and occupation, we find that job stability did not decrease, but if anything increase, between 1974 and 1994. Our finding suggests that labour market inflexibility is an important factor in explaining the European unemployment problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Is Job Stability Declining in Germany? Evidences from Count Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Booth, Alison L & Francesconi, Marco & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos, 1997. "Job Tenure: Does History Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Susan N. Houseman & Katharine G. Abraham, 1995. "Earnings Inequality in Germany," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers,in: Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz (ed.), Differences and Changes in Wage Structures, pages 371-403 W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    3. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1995. " Recent Developments in Count Data Modelling: Theory and Application," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Dove E. Marcofte, 1995. "Declining job stability: What we know and what it means," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 590-598.
    5. Lucie MERKLE & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1992. "The Demographics of Labour Turnover : A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    7. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "German Job Mobility and Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 4, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Winkelmann, Rainer, 1995. "Duration Dependence and Dispersion in Count-Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 467-474, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Bachmann & Michael C. Burda, 2010. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 37-59, February.
    2. Miikka Rokkanen & Roope Uusitalo, 2013. "Changes in Job Stability – Evidence from Lifetime Job Histories," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 36-55, Autumn.
    3. Justina A. V. Fischer & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2009. "Does job satisfaction improve the health of workers? New evidence using panel data and objective measures of health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 71-89.
    4. Launov, Andrey, 2004. "An Alternative Approach to Testing Dual Labour Market Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 1289, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Caparros, A. & Navarro, M.L., 2005. "Factors Affecting Quits and Layoffs in Spanish Labour Market," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(4).
    6. Ernesto Villanueva, 2004. "Compensating wage differentials and voluntary job changes: Evidence from West Germany," Economics Working Papers 738, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Euwals, Rob & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2001. "Why Do Firms Train? Empirical Evidence on the First Labour Market Outcomes of Graduated Apprentices," IZA Discussion Papers 319, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Erlinghagen, Marcel, 2006. "Erstarrung, Beschleunigung oder Polarisierung? Arbeitsmarktmobilität und Beschäftigungsstabilität im Zeitverlauf. Neue Ergebnisse mit der IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe," Graue Reihe des Instituts Arbeit und Technik 2006-01, Institut Arbeit und Technik (IAT), Westfälische Hochschule, University of Applied Sciences.
    9. Bergemann, Annette & Mertens, Antje, 2004. "Job Stability Trends, Layoffs, and Transitions to Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis for West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1368, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Giuseppe Russo, 2008. "Institutional Rigidities and Employment Rigidity on the Italian Labour Market," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(3), pages 217-227.
    11. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2010. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 291-330, April.
    12. Bergemann, Annette & Mertens, Antje, 2000. "Job stability trends, layoffs and quits: An empirical analysis for West Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,102, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    13. Krzysztof Pytka, 2011. "Determinants of Involuntary Job Termination in the Polish Labor Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(1), pages 25-38, March.
    14. Andreas Koch & Jochen Spaeth, 2009. "New Firms---Different Jobs? An Inquiry into the Quality of Employment in Start-ups and Incumbents," IAW Discussion Papers 50, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    15. Sara Serra, 2015. "Temporary contracts’ transitions: the role of training and institutions," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Angelika Tölke, 2004. "Die Bedeutung von Herkunftsfamilie, Berufsbiografie und Partnerschaften für den Übergang zur Ehe und Vaterschaft," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2008. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Working Papers 1111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    job mobility; count data models; labour market flexibility;

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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