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Fiscal multipliers: new evidence from a large panel of countries

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  • Wee Chian Koh

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of fiscal policy by employing a structural panel vector autoregression model with a shock to fiscal spending identified via theoretical robust sign restrictions. Using an annual data set of 120 countries over the period 1960–2014, the results show that fiscal multipliers are larger in advanced economies, when public debt is low, at a high level of financial development, in a financial crisis, and during business cycle downturns. Contrary to conventional wisdom, fiscal multipliers are not necessarily smaller in countries that are relatively open to trade and capital flows and operating under flexible exchange rate regimes. The relationship between the size of fiscal multipliers and the three dimensions of openness—trade openness, capital mobility, and exchange rate flexibility—hinges on the response of the real exchange rate and the domestic monetary policy pursued.

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  • Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal multipliers: new evidence from a large panel of countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 569-590.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:569-590.
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    3. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
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    8. Sabaj, Ernil & Sbia, Rashid & Troug, Haytem, 2023. "Does it matter where and how governments spend?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Haytem Troug, 2020. "Monetary policy with non-separable government spending," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 426-449, January.
    10. Troug, Haytem, 2019. "Monetary Policy with Non-Separable Government Spending," MPRA Paper 92323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Petrović, Pavle & Arsić, Milojko & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2021. "Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 580-597.
    12. Senekovič Marko, 2022. "What is the Nature of the Dynamics between Government Spending and Aggregate Output in the Nordic Countries?," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 1-13, March.
    13. Haytem Troug & Ernil Sabaj, 2023. "Monetary policy in a small open economy with non-separable government spending," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(1), pages 39-70, October.
    14. Mr. Jiro Honda & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mina Taniguchi, 2020. "Exploring the Output Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/012, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Senekovič Marko, 2021. "Is There Asymmetry in the Relationship Between Government Consumption Dynamics and Economic Activity? Evidence From G7 Economies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 67(4), pages 1-12, December.
    16. Senekovič Marko & Kavkler Alenka & Bekő Jani, 2019. "Estimation of Government Spending Multiplier in EU Economies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 16-29, March.
    17. Daffeh, Abdou & Destefanis, Sergio & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo, 2024. "Fiscal multipliers in Low-income Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    18. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2018. "The (low) fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2583, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    20. Nicolae-Bogdan Ianc & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "So alike, yet so different: comparing fiscal multipliers across E(M)U candidates," Working Papers 2019.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    21. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
    22. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.
    23. Colombo, Emilio & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2024. "Public expenditure multipliers and informality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    24. Haug, Alfred A. & Jędrzejowicz, Tomasz & Sznajderska, Anna, 2019. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 15-27.

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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