IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/101761.html

The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Cole
  • Julian Kozlowski
  • Joseph Martorana

Abstract

This article analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the elevated probability of inflation exceeding the 2 percent target that persisted shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the importance of market-based tools in capturing nuanced inflation dynamics and informing policy and financial decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Cole & Julian Kozlowski & Joseph Martorana, 2025. "The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 107(13), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:101761
    DOI: 10.20955/r.2025.13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/publications/review/pdfs/2025/sep/dynamics-of-long-run-inflation-expectations-market-based-perspective.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/r.2025.13?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Fleming & John Sporn, 2013. "Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(May), pages 45-57.
    2. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2021. "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2473-2505, August.
    3. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    4. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    5. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    6. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-41, December.
    8. Stephen A. Ross, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Sirio Aramonte, 2022. "Inflation risk and the labor market: beneath the surface of a flat Phillips curve," BIS Working Papers 1054, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2014. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46.
    4. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Fusari, Nicola & Mira, Antonietta & Sala, Carlo, 2020. "Option market trading activity and the estimation of the pricing kernel: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 430-449.
    5. Carole Bernard & Oleg Bondarenko & Steven Vanduffel, 2021. "A model-free approach to multivariate option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 135-155, July.
    6. Bertrand, Philippe & Prigent, Jean-luc, 2016. "Equilibrium of financial derivative markets under portfolio insurance constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 278-291.
    7. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2025. "An options-based impact study of the negative interest rate policy and forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    8. Alexandre M. Baptista, 2005. "Options And Efficiency In Multidate Security Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 569-587, October.
    9. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
    10. Michael Schmutz & Thomas Zürcher, 2014. "Static Hedging with Traffic Light Options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 690-702, July.
    11. Vohra, Suprita & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2019. "Effectiveness of developed and emerging market FX options in active currency risk management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 130-146.
    12. Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
    13. Yoshino, Joe Akira, 2003. "Market Risk and Volatility in the Brazilian Stock Market," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, November.
    14. Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun, 2003. "Dynamic derivative strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 401-430, September.
    15. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
    16. Dijkstra, Theo K. & Yao, Yong, 2002. "Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 163-178, October.
    17. Tak Kuen Siu & Robert J. Elliott, 2019. "Hedging Options In A Doubly Markov-Modulated Financial Market Via Stochastic Flows," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-41, December.
    18. Chen, An & Vanduffel, Steven & Wilke, Morten, 2025. "Optimal payoffs under smooth ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 320(3), pages 754-764.
    19. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2014. "Variance trading and market price of variance risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 81-97.
    20. Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1994. "Contingent Claims Valued And Hedged By Pricing And Investing In A Basis," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 223-245, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:101761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.