IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/101179.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Cole
  • Julian Kozlowski
  • Joseph Martorana

Abstract

This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the elevated probability of inflation exceeding the 2 percent target that persisted shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the importance of market-based tools in capturing nuanced inflation dynamics and informing policy and financial decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Cole & Julian Kozlowski & Joseph Martorana, 2025. "The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective," Working Papers 2025-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101179
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2025.015
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2025.13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2025.015
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2025.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2021. "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2473-2505, August.
    2. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    3. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    4. Stephen A. Ross, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89.
    5. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-41, December.
    6. Michael J. Fleming & John Sporn, 2013. "Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(May), pages 45-57.
    7. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2014. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46.
    3. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Fusari, Nicola & Mira, Antonietta & Sala, Carlo, 2020. "Option market trading activity and the estimation of the pricing kernel: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 430-449.
    4. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    5. Bertrand, Philippe & Prigent, Jean-luc, 2016. "Equilibrium of financial derivative markets under portfolio insurance constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 278-291.
    6. Alexandre M. Baptista, 2005. "Options And Efficiency In Multidate Security Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 569-587, October.
    7. Michael Schmutz & Thomas Zürcher, 2014. "Static Hedging with Traffic Light Options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 690-702, July.
    8. Ho, Li-Chin Jennifer & Hassell, John M. & Swidler, Steve, 1995. "An empirical examination of the dispersion and accuracy of analyst forecasts surrounding option listing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 171-185.
    9. Tak Kuen Siu & Robert J. Elliott, 2019. "Hedging Options In A Doubly Markov-Modulated Financial Market Via Stochastic Flows," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-41, December.
    10. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko, 2007. "Construction and Interpretation of Model-Free Implied Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Galvani, Valentina, 2007. "A note on spanning with options," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 106-114, July.
    13. Jingtang Ma & Dongya Deng & Harry Zheng, 2016. "Convergence analysis and optimal strike choice for static hedges of general path-independent pay-offs," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 593-603, April.
    14. Merton, Robert, 1990. "Capital market theory and the pricing of financial securities," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 497-581, Elsevier.
    15. Bruce Lehmann, 2008. "Arbitrage-free Limit Order Books and the Pricing of Order Flow Risk," NBER Working Papers 13848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    17. Gaia Barone, 2008. "Arbitrages and Arrow-Debreu Prices," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 98(6), pages 43-78, November-.
    18. Scholes, Myron S, 1998. "Derivatives in a Dynamic Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 350-370, June.
    19. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    20. Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Michael J. O'Neill & Tom Smith, 2017. "State-preference pricing and volatility indices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 815-836, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.