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State government response to income fluctuations: Consumption, insurance, and capital expenditures

  • Craig, Steven G.
  • Hoang, Edward C.

This paper analyzes state government response to changes in the underlying economy with a view to determining whether, and to what extent, state governments respond to economic fluctuations. Specifically, we build impulse response functions from a panel of US states to examine how states cope with changes in economic conditions. We examine current expenditures, as well as Unemployment Insurance, welfare, and capital spending. Further, we examine how both short and long term debt and state government taxes vary with GSP. Our examination of average state government behavior indicates that states respond slowly to changes in the economy, and that they do not utilize some of the institutional features that are purportedly designed to cushion budgetary impacts. Finally, we find that welfare and UI spending follow separate distinct time paths, but not ones seemingly constrained by institutional barriers.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 343-351

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:41:y:2011:i:4:p:343-351
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Optimal Taxation and Social Insurance with Endogenous Private Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Income Taxation, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 85-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dye, Richard F., 2004. "State Revenue Cyclicality," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 57(1), pages 133-45, March.
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  6. Bergstrom, Theodore C & Goodman, Robert P, 1973. "Private Demands for Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 280-96, June.
  7. James M. Poterba, 1993. "State Responses to Fiscal Crisis: The Effects of Budgetary Institutionsand Politics," NBER Working Papers 4375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Poterba, James M., 1995. "Capital budgets, borrowing rules, and state capital spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 165-187, February.
  10. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  11. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2008. "A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-132.
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