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State government response to income fluctuations: Consumption, insurance, and capital expenditures


  • Craig, Steven G.
  • Hoang, Edward C.


This paper analyzes state government response to changes in the underlying economy with a view to determining whether, and to what extent, state governments respond to economic fluctuations. Specifically, we build impulse response functions from a panel of US states to examine how states cope with changes in economic conditions. We examine current expenditures, as well as Unemployment Insurance, welfare, and capital spending. Further, we examine how both short and long term debt and state government taxes vary with GSP. Our examination of average state government behavior indicates that states respond slowly to changes in the economy, and that they do not utilize some of the institutional features that are purportedly designed to cushion budgetary impacts. Finally, we find that welfare and UI spending follow separate distinct time paths, but not ones seemingly constrained by institutional barriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig, Steven G. & Hoang, Edward C., 2011. "State government response to income fluctuations: Consumption, insurance, and capital expenditures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 343-351, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:41:y:2011:i:4:p:343-351

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Bergstrom, Theodore C & Goodman, Robert P, 1973. "Private Demands for Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 280-296, June.
    4. Poterba, James M, 1994. "State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August.
    5. Poterba, James M., 1995. "Capital budgets, borrowing rules, and state capital spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 165-187, February.
    6. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    10. Dye, Richard F., 2004. "State Revenue Cyclicality," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 57(1), pages 133-145, March.
    11. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Optimal Taxation and Social Insurance with Endogenous Private Insurance," NBER Chapters,in: Income Taxation, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 85-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2008. "A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-132.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albert Solé-Ollé & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2011. "Local spending and the housing boom," Working Papers 2011/27, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    2. Craig, Steven G. & Hemissi, Wided & Mukherjee, Satadru & Sørensen, Bent E., 2016. "How do politicians save? Buffer-stock management of unemployment insurance finance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 18-29.
    3. Matthias Uhl, 2014. "State Fiscal Policies and Regional Economic Activity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201446, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. repec:bla:pbudge:v:37:y:2017:i:1:p:47-67 is not listed on IDEAS


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