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Examining The Stability Of Okun'S Coefficient

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  • Nektarios A. Michail

Abstract

The stability of Okun's law coefficient in the United States from 1949 to 2015 is examined using a regression with GARCH errors in order to capture the volatility of the series. Rolling estimations suggest that taking the volatility of the series into account yields more stable results compared to the simple OLS estimation, irrespective of the specification (gap or growth model), the data frequency (monthly or quarterly), or the length of the rolling window. The results also suggest that the persistence of shocks became much more important in explaining contemporaneous volatility when data from the recent global financial crisis were incorporated. In contrast, the feedthrough of output shocks in next period's output volatility was more important in the past, and especially during the 1970s stagflation period, but has been declining since.

Suggested Citation

  • Nektarios A. Michail, 2019. "Examining The Stability Of Okun'S Coefficient," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 240-256, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:71:y:2019:i:3:p:240-256
    DOI: 10.1111/boer.12157
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    Cited by:

    1. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva, 2021. "Public Debt Thresholds: An Analysis for Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 15(1), pages 75-85, June.
    2. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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