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Economic dynamics during periods of financial stress: Evidences from Brazil

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  • Stona, Filipe
  • Morais, Igor A.C.
  • Triches, Divanildo

Abstract

This paper investigates the differences in macroeconomic dynamics that occurred during instabilities in the Brazilian financial market from 2000 to 2015. In this regard, we introduced the Brazil Financial Stress Index as a proxy for financial stress, and investigated its interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy using a Markov-switching VAR model. We could verify distinct economic reactions during stressful periods. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that appropriate policies for some countries in normal times, such as an expansionary monetary policy, can worsen the scenario in an adverse situation, indicating that a government might deepen a financial crisis if policy-makers implements a policy used successfully during a regime that is economically and behaviorally dissimilar from tense states.

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  • Stona, Filipe & Morais, Igor A.C. & Triches, Divanildo, 2018. "Economic dynamics during periods of financial stress: Evidences from Brazil," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:130-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.02.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial instability; Financial Stress Index; Macroeconomic dynamic; Markov switching; Monetary policy; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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