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Arbitrage opportunities, efficiency, and the role of risk preferences in the Hong Kong property market

Author

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  • Chun-Kei Tsang
  • Wing-Keung Wong
  • Ira Horowitz

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate how a prospective buyer’s optimal home-size purchase can be determined by means of a stochastic-dominance (SD) analysis of the historical data of Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach - By means of SD analysis, the paper uses monthly property yields in Hong Kong over a 15-year period to illustrate how buyers of different risk preference may optimize their home-size purchase. Findings - Regardless of whether the buyer eschews risk, embraces risk or is indifferent to it, in any adjacent pairing of five well-defined housing classes, the smaller class provides the optimal purchase. In addition, risk-averters focusing on total yield would prefer to invest in the smallest and second-smallest classes than in the largest class. Research limitations/implications - As the smaller class provides the optimal purchase, the smallest class affords the buyer the optimal purchase over all classes in this important housing market – at least where rental yields are of primary concern. Practical implications - The findings suggest that in the Hong Kong housing market, long-term investors may be better off purchasing smaller homes. For other type of investors, it depends on their risk preference. Originality/value - There is a very small body of empirical literature on housing investment, especially if the focus is on the optimal home-size purchase.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun-Kei Tsang & Wing-Keung Wong & Ira Horowitz, 2016. "Arbitrage opportunities, efficiency, and the role of risk preferences in the Hong Kong property market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 735-754, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:33:y:2016:i:4:p:735-754
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-03-2015-0079
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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen Huu Hau & Tran Trung Tinh & Hoa Anh Tuong & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review of Matrix Theory with Applications in Education and Decision Sciences," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(1), pages 28-69, March.
    2. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2018. "Is wine a good choice for investment?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 171-183.
    3. Wing-Keung Wong & Hooi Hoi Lean & Michael McAleer & Feng-Tse Tsai, 2018. "Why did Warrant Markets Close in China but not Taiwan?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-051/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Kai-Yin Woo & Chulin Mai & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review on Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-51, March.
    5. Xu Guo & Xuejun Jiang & Wing-Keung Wong, 2017. "Stochastic Dominance and Omega Ratio: Measures to Examine Market Efficiency, Arbitrage Opportunity, and Anomaly," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data: Connections," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-024/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Alkhazali, Osamah M. & Zoubi, Taisier A., 2020. "Gold and portfolio diversification: A stochastic dominance analysis of the Dow Jones Islamic indices," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Xu Guo & Cuizhen Niu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Farinelli and Tibiletti ratio and stochastic dominance," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 201-213, September.
    9. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    10. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Wing Keung Wong & Thomas C. Chiang, 2021. "The maximum-return-and-minimum-volatility effect: evidence from choosing risky and riskless assets to form a portfolio," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 97-122, June.
    11. Tai-Yuen Hon & Massoud Moslehpour & Kai-Yin Woo, 2021. "Review on Behavioral Finance with Empirical Evidence," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 15-41, December.
    12. Chan, Raymond H. & Chow, Sheung-Chi & Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2022. "Central moments, stochastic dominance, moment rule, and diversification with an application," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Management science, economics and finance: A connection," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-07, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    14. Kim-Hung Pho & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Moment Generating Function, Expectation And Variance Of Ubiquitous Distributions With Applications In Decision Sciences: A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(2), pages 65-150, June.
    15. Zongxin Li & Xinge Li & Yongchang Hui & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Maslow Portfolio Selection for Individuals with Low Financial Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-11, April.
    16. Tran Thai Ha Nguyen & Massoud Moslehpour & Thi Thuy Van Vo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "State Ownership and Risk-Taking Behavior: An Empirical Approach to Get Better Profitability, Investment, and Trading Strategies for Listed Corporates in Vietnam," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, June.
    17. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, And Big Data: Connections," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 36-94, December.
    18. Niu, Cuizhen & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2016. "First Stochastic Dominance and Risk Measurement," MPRA Paper 75027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kim-Hung Pho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Optimal Solution Techniques in Decision Sciences A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 114-161, March.
    20. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    21. Wing-Keung Wong & Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Feng-Tse Tsai, 2018. "Why Are Warrant Markets Sustained in Taiwan but Not in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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