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Human capital and labour market resilience over time: a regional perspective of the Portuguese case

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Simões

    (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)

  • João Sousa Andrade

    (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)

  • Adelaide Duarte

    (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of human capital on labour market resilience in the seven Portuguese NUTS-2 over the period 1995-2018. We define resilience as the ability of regional employment to recover from a shock to output over the business cycle. We use the Local Projection (LP) methodology applied to a SVAR model with three variables - employment, human capital, real GDP - and the output gap as the switching variable for the identification of recession and expansion regimes. We explore SVAR specifications that condition the response of the labour market to two scenarios: (a) the shock to GDP occurs during recessions; and (b) the shock to GDP occurs during expansions. The comparison of the employment responses to GDP shocks between the two regimes is informative about the degree of resilience of the labour market. We find evidence of: (i) distinct effects in terms of the sign and amplitude of GDP shocks on regional employment according to the level of educational attainment of the employees; (ii) labour market resilience and jobless recoveries in several regions; and (iii) different regional reactions of human capital to GDP shocks depending on the regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Simões & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2022. "Human capital and labour market resilience over time: a regional perspective of the Portuguese case," CeBER Working Papers 2022-01, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:papers:2022-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogdan-Constantin Ibanescu & Alexandra Gheorghiu & Mioara Cristea & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu, 2023. "The Evolution of Job Insecurity in Spatial Contexts in Europe During COVID-19 Pandemic," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 46(5-6), pages 552-576, September.
    2. Mei Peng Low & Tat-Huei Cham & T. Ramayah, 2025. "Deciphering organisational resilience through a confluence analysis of PLS-SEM, necessary condition analysis, and combined importance-performance map," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 2961-2989, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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