IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2023-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case

Author

Abstract

We construct a Financial Stress Index (FSI) for a small open economy, which aims to provide clear and timely signals of financial market strains. This can be used in developing appropriate responses to address these adverse events. To do so, we use the principal component framework and apply it to Australian monthly data on interest rates, spreads, exchange rates, house price growth and inflation expectations. Decomposing the index into foreign and domestic components, we find that the foreign factors can explain more than half (57.4%) of our Australian Financial Stress Index (AFSI). To determine the information content of our index, we run a series of Granger causality tests on several economic and financial observables. We also estimate whether including the AFSI can improve the prediction of the different economic and financial outcomes relative to a specification that uses only its own previous data. We find that including the AFSI improves the forecasts for future retail sales growth and bank credit growth. Finally, we show that financial stress can have non-linear effects on bank credit growth. In particular, an increase in financial stress affects credit growth more adversely if AFSI is high. This result further highlights the importance of an accurate and timely measure of financial stress in an economy for researchers and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Romina Ruprecht & Xuan Zhou, 2023. "A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-29
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023029pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2023.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Moore, 2017. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 550-575, December.
    2. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    3. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    6. Susan Black & Joshua Kirkwood & Thomas Williams & Alan Rai, 2013. "A History of Australian Corporate Bonds," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 292-317, November.
    7. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    8. Mr. Subir Lall & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2009/100, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Troy Davig & Craig S. Hakkio, 2010. "What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 95(Q II), pages 35-62.
    10. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    11. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    12. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    14. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    15. Björn Roye, 2014. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 101-126, February.
    16. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    17. Jan J. J. Groen & Michael Nattinger & Adam I. Noble, 2020. "Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses," Staff Reports 940, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    19. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Azamat Abdymomunov, 2013. "Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 455-470, August.
    21. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    2. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-81.
    3. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    4. Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay & Ozturk, Huseyin, 2019. "Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 151-172.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    7. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    8. Hussin Abdullah & Jauhari Dahalan & Khaw Lee Hwei & Mohammed Umar & Md Mohan Uddin, 2017. "Malaysian Financial Stress Index and Assessing its Impacts on the Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 227-235.
    9. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    12. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    13. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2014. "Financial stress spillovers in advanced economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-149.
    14. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    16. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    17. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    18. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    19. Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "Financial stress and returns predictability: Fresh evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Xuan Lv & Menggang Li & Yingjie Zhang, 2022. "Financial Stability and Economic Activity in China: Based on Mixed-Frequency Spillover Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, October.
    21. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stress index; Financial stability; Small open economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.