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The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources

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  • Anping Chen

    (School of Economics, Jinan University)

  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    (Economics Discipline, Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

Since 2007 China’s growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6-7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province’s growth into various factors. We find that (1) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (2) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (3) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (4) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2019. "The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:19-07
    Note: MD5 = f2d92e4c6b532729611effc750aa9e8e
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; growth; slowdown; provincial effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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