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Forward-Looking Monetary Policy and the Transmission of Conventional Monetary Policy Shocks

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  • Chunya Bu
  • John Rogers
  • Wenbin Wu

Abstract

Standard structural VAR models and estimation using Romer and Romer (2004) monetary policy shocks show that, in samples after the 1980s, a contractionary conventional monetary policy shock generates smaller and sometimes perversely-signed impulse responses compared to earlier samples. Using insights from the central bank information effects literature, we show that the analyses producing these results suffer from an omitted variables problem related to forward-looking information emanating from Federal Reserve forecasts. Transmission of conventional monetary policy shocks takes on the standard signs, and is typically significant, once Fed forward-looking information is taken into account. This reconciliation does not follow from adding private sector forecasts to the estimation frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunya Bu & John Rogers & Wenbin Wu, 2020. "Forward-Looking Monetary Policy and the Transmission of Conventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-14
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
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    5. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
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    11. Pascal Paul, 2019. "Does the Fed Know More about the Economy?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "International Effects of Euro Area Forward Guidance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1066-1110, October.
    2. Taeyoung Doh & Dongho Song & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements," Research Working Paper RWP 20-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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    Keywords

    information effects; Monetary policy; VARs;
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