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Are predictable improvements in TFP contractionary or expansionary? implications from sectoral TFP

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  • Nam, Deokwoo
  • Wang, Jian

Abstract

We document in the US data: (1) The dominant predictable component of investment-sector TFP is its long-run movements, and a favorable shock to predictable changes in investmentsector TFP induces a broad economic boom that leads actual increases in investment-sector TFP by almost two years, and (2) predictable changes in consumption-sector TFP occur mainly at short forecast horizons, and a favorable shock to such predictable changes leads to immediate reductions in hours worked, investment, and output as well as an immediate rise in consumption-sector TFP. We argue that these documented differences in the responses to shocks to predictable sectoral TFP changes can reconcile the seemingly contradictory findings in Beaudry and Portier (2006) and Barsky and Sims (2011), whose analyses are based on aggregate TFP measures. In addition, we find that shocks to predictable changes in investment-sector TFP account for 50% of business cycle fluctuations in consumption, hours, investment, and output, while shocks to predictable changes in consumption-sector TFP explain only a small fraction of business cycle fluctuations of these aggregate variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2012. "Are predictable improvements in TFP contractionary or expansionary? implications from sectoral TFP," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 114, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:114 Note: Published as: Nam, Deokwoo and Jian Wang (2014), "Are Predictable Improvements in TFP Contractionary or Expansionary: Implications from Sectoral TFP?" Economics Letters 124 (2): 171-175.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1418-1448.
    2. André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
    3. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1293-1307.
    5. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014. "A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 638-647.
    6. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 2612-2632.
    7. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nadav Ben Zeev & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "Investment‐Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1443-1464, October.
    9. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    10. Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?," NBER Working Papers 17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "News shocks and business cycles: bridging the gap from different methodologies," Working Papers 2013_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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