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Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?

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  1. La svalutazzzzzione sarà imprevedibile però sarà devastante (leggende metropolitane bipartisan)
    by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2015-01-22 16:40:00

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
  2. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1988. "Exchange rate volatility and misalignment: evaluating some proposals for reform," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-231.
  5. Agnès Bénassy & Henri Sterdyniak, 1992. "La détermination des taux de change dans les modèles multinationaux : l'état de l'art," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 39-71.
  6. Marcos Alvarez-Diaz & Alberto Alvarez, 2003. "Forecasting exchange rates using genetic algorithms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 319-322.
  7. Kelly Burns & Imad Moosa, 2017. "Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(48), pages 4897-4910, October.
  8. Serban, Alina F., 2010. "Combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2720-2727, November.
  9. Kano, Takashi & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "An equilibrium foundation of the Soros chart," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 21-42.
  10. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  11. Richard Baldwin & Richard K. Lyons, 1988. "The Mutual Amplification Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility and Unresponsive Trade Prices," NBER Working Papers 2677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009. "Inferential Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
  13. Koh, Seng Kee & Fong, Wai Mun & Chan, Fabrice, 2007. "A Cardan's discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-148, February.
  14. Huber, Florian, 2017. "Structural breaks in Taylor rule based exchange rate models — Evidence from threshold time varying parameter models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 48-52.
  15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
  16. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2022. "Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory," CFS Working Paper Series 679, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  17. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
  18. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
  19. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
  20. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
  21. Emekter, Riza & Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Snaith, Sean M., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, July.
  22. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  23. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2011. "Exchange‐rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 623-641, April.
  24. Din 祲 Afat & Marta G -Puig & Sim osvilla-Rivero, 2015. "The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4607-4629, September.
  25. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  26. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
  27. Kim Chung-Han, 2000. "Balassa-Samuelson Theory and Predictability of the US/UK Real Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 101-121.
  28. Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade: Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-19.
  29. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
  30. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Alberto Álvarez, 2002. "Predicción No-Lineal De Tipos De Cambio: Algoritmos Genéticos, Redes Neuronales Y Fusión De Datos," Working Papers 0205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  31. H. Henry Cao & Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Inventory Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 9, pages 363-413, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  32. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
  33. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-787.
  34. David O'Toole, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasts and Stochastic Trend Breaks," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 7, July-Dece.
  35. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for nonlinear Granger causality from fundamentals to exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 69-82, January.
  36. Schmidt, Robert & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2004. "Sterilized Foreign Exchange Market Interventions in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Exchange Rate Model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 50, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  37. Della Corte, Pasquale & Ramadorai, Tarun & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 21-40.
  38. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
  39. Alberto Fuertes & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "“Forecasting emerging market currencies: Are inflation expectations useful?”," IREA Working Papers 201918, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2019.
  40. Rongju Zhang & Mark Aarons & Gregoire Loeper, 2019. "Optimal FX Hedge Tenor with Liquidity Risk," Papers 1903.06346, arXiv.org.
  41. Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
  42. Saurabh Ghosh, 2014. "Volatility spillover in the foreign exchange market: the Indian experience," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 175-194, March.
  43. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
  44. Hillebrand, Eric & Lukas, Manuel & Wei, Wei, 2021. "Bagging weak predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 237-254.
  45. Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast: A factor analysis," MPRA Paper 105358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Costantini, Mauro & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Economics Series 305, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  47. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  49. Cavallo, Michele & Ghironi, Fabio, 2002. "Net foreign assets and the exchange rate: Redux revived," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1057-1097, July.
  50. Carlos Capistrán & Gabriel López-Moctezuma, 2008. "Experts´ Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
  51. Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 904, CESifo.
  52. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  53. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Rosser & Richard Sheehan, 1989. "A comparison of national and international aggregate supply and demand var models: The United States, Japan and the European economic community," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 252-272, June.
  54. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  55. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2010. "Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: The role of sticky information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 48-60, May.
  56. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
  57. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
  58. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
  59. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Michail Karoglou & Alicia M. Gazely, 2011. "Forecasting The Uk/Us Exchange Rate With Divisia Monetary Models And Neural Networks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 127-152, February.
  60. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Erlandsson, Ulf G., 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 314-320, July.
  61. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
  62. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber, 2020. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 168-186, March.
  63. Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
  64. Ian Hudson, 2016. "The Currency Carry Trade: Selection Skill or Behavioral Bias," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 176-185, September.
  65. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 16, pages 645-724, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  66. Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 375-418, February.
  67. Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Makroekonomik Gostergelerin Doviz Kurlari Uzerine Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1221, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  68. Apergis, Nicholas, 2014. "Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
  69. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
  70. Pablo Pincheira & Nicolas Hardy & Andrea Bentancor, 2022. "A Simple Out-of-Sample Test of Predictability against the Random Walk Benchmark," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, January.
  71. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
  72. Peter Dorman, 2007. "Low Savings or a High Trade Deficit?:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 49-64.
  73. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  74. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  75. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1998. "Common Stochastic Trends among Asian Currencies: Evidence for Japan, ASEANs, and the Asian Tigers," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 193-206, March.
  76. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
  77. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Uncovered equity “disparity” in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
  78. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," Working Papers 0705, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  79. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or Undead?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 655-659, November.
  80. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5285 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
  82. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  83. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A., 2013. "Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 68-93.
  84. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
  85. Syed Hassan & Sarosh Shabi & Taufiq Choudhry, 2018. "Asymmetry, Uncertainty and International Trade," Working Papers 2018-24, Swansea University, School of Management.
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  87. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice & de Prince, Diogo & Merlin, Giovanni, 2018. "Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 72(4), December.
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  89. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
  90. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Exchange rate expectation, abnormal returns, and the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1-25.
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  93. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang & Wen Jen Tsay, 2010. "Home Bias in Currency Forecasts," Working Papers 272010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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  128. Pablo Pincheira, 2013. "A Simple Out-of-Sample Test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 698, Central Bank of Chile.
  129. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Salisu, Afees A. & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "OPEC News and Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Dynamic Bayesian Learning," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
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  131. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
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  133. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
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