The Backus-Smith Puzzle: The Role of Expectations
Efficient risk-sharing dictates a positive relationship between the real exchange rate and relative consumption across countries: consumption should be relatively high where consumption is relatively cheap. However, contrary to the positive relationship predicted by most models, the empirical correlation between bilateral real exchange rates and relative consumptions is typically negative (see Backus and Smith, 1993). In this paper I extend a standard two-country, two-good international business cycle model with internationally incomplete financial markets to incorporate public signals about future innovations to total factor productivity. In this environment, a positive signal increases the relative present value of domestic lifetime income, implying that current consumption can increase by more than current output. This increase in demand in turn generates an appreciation in the real exchange rate, suggesting a potential resolution to the Backus-Smith puzzle. When the economy is calibrated to the United States versus the rest of the industrialized world, numerical simulations deliver a correlation between the exchange rate and relative consumption that is similar to that observed empirically.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1992. "Survey Expectations in the Time Series Consumption Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 598-606, November.
- Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995.
"Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1992. "Business cycles and the asset structure of foreign trade," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 59, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2003.
"Net foreign assets and imperfect pass-through: the consumption real exchange rate anomaly,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
764, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Vicente Tuesta & Jorge Selaive, 2004. "Net Foreing Assets and Imperfect Pass-through: The Consumption-Real Exchange Rate Anomaly," 2004 Meeting Papers 203, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993.
"Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods,"
1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
- Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002.
"The World Income Distribution,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694.
- Engel, C., 1996.
"Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Daron Acemoglu & Andrew Scott, 1993.
"Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0119, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
- Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2003.
"Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
252, Central Bank of Chile.
- Jorge Selaive ; Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999.
"Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
- Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & John B. DONALDSON & Thore JOHNSEN, 1997.
"Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle,"
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
9711, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Johnsen, Thore, 1998. "Productivity growth, consumer confidence and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1113-1140, June.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B & Johnsen, Thore, 1998. "Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kollmann, R., 1992.
"Consumption, Real Exchange Rates and the Structure of International Asset Markets,"
Cahiers de recherche
9232, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, April.
- Robert Kollmann, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7642, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Kollmann, R., 1992. "Consumption, Real Exchange Rates and the Structure of International Asset Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9232, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991.
"Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements,"
9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
- Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Ravn, Morten O, 2001. "Consumption Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991.
"Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
- Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.