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Survey Expectations in the Time Series Consumption Function

  • Batchelor, Roy
  • Dua, Pami

This paper introduces survey-based measures of expectations and uncertainties about income and real interest rates into an otherwise conventional consumption function. The survey dat a contribute more than conventional variables to the explanation of changes in consumption. The hypothesis that consumption follows a random walk is rejected in favor of a model in which consumption responds with a lag to changes in expected income growth. The significance of inflation in earlier estimates of the U.S. consumpti on function is shown to be spurious and due to a strong negative correlation between expected inflation and expected income growth. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 74 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 598-606

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:74:y:1992:i:4:p:598-606
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