How well do U.S. consumers predict the direction of change in interest rates?
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
- Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 1992. "On the Formation of Expected Inflation under Various Conditions: Some Survey Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 281-293, April.
- Crettez, Bertrand & Michel, Philippe, 1992. "Economically rational expectations equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-206, October.
- Mark Greer, 2005. "Combination forecasting for directional accuracy: An application to survey interest rate forecasts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 607-615.
- Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
- Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1992. "Survey Expectations in the Time Series Consumption Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 598-606, November.
- Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
CitationsCitations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013.
"Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication,"
KOF Working papers
13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Lamla, Michael & Dräger, Lena & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2015. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113170, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar, 2014. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201401, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
- Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Discussion Paper 2013-063, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016.
"Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
- Drager, Lena & Lamla, Michael & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2015. "Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Predicting the direction of change in aggregate demand growth and its components," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 292-302.
More about this item
KeywordsDirectional predictions Michigan survey Mortgage rate Prime rate Economically rational expectations Asymmetric loss function;
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:48:y:2008:i:4:p:725-732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.