Overconfidence in Currency Markets
This paper tests the influential hypothesis, typically attributed to Friedman (1953), that irrational traders will be driven out of financial markets by trading losses. The paper’s main finding is that overconfident currency dealers are not driven out of the market. Traders with extensive experience are neither more nor less overconfident than their inexperienced colleagues. We first provide evidence that currency dealers are indeed overconfident, which is notable since they get daily trading practice and face intense financial incentives to accuracy.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: MS032, P.O. Box 9110, Waltham, MA 02454-9110|
Web page: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
" Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Scholarly Articles 27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2009. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 555-575.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009.
"Carry Trades and Currency Crashes,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002.
"Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
- Maciejovsky, Boris & Kirchler, Erich, 2001. "Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: Evidence from experimental asset markets," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Maciejovsky, B. & Kirchler, E., 2001. "Simultaneous Over-and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Aseet Markets," Papers 185, Flinders of South Australia - Discipline of Economics.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Marsh, Ian W, 1999.
"How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ian Marsh & Menzie Chinn & Yin-Wong Cheung, 1999. "How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," Working Papers wp99-21, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 2001. "Short-Term Horizons in Foreign Exchange? Survey Evidence from Dealers and Fund Managers," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 27-47.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001.
"Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gerhard van de Venter & David Michayluk, 2008. "An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 545-557, March.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
- Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007.
"Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
- Michael J. Dueker & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Working Papers 2001-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dewachter, Hans, 2001. "Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February.
- Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Leslie Yancich)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.