IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/99145.html

Some Stylised Facts for the Economies of Anglophone West Africa and Guinea

Author

Listed:
  • Mogaji, Peter Kehinde

Abstract

This paper investigated some macroeconomic and financial stylised facts in the context of the developing economies of the Guinea and the five Anglophone West Africa countries, consisting of The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. These six countries were collectively known as the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) up till 2014. The informal economies of the WAMZ countries, some macroeconomic stylised facts in respect of theoretical propositions like Phillips curve, Lucas output-inflation trade-off and International parity conditions (purchasing power parity (PPP) conditions, international Fisher effect - IFE, and uncovered interest parity - UIP) were evaluated. Also, the relationships between domestic cyclical output and some macroeconomic variables were considered in the assessments of business cycles from the view-point of the developing economies of the WAMZ and the developed economies of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Some empirical regularities in exchange rates and the behaviours of foreign exchange markets were also evaluated. This paper covered the period of time spanning between 1991 and 2015 on the average. Findings and results revealed that variabilities of the cyclical components of seven selected macroeconomic variables examined were lower in the developed economies of Germany, the UK and the US than the developing economies of the WAMZ, thus supporting this stylised fact that the cycles of macroeconomic variables are more volatile in developing economies than in developed economies. There were evidences to infer that the validity of both absolute and relative PPP could not be established in the WAMZ, thus making PPP to be irrelevant in the exchange rate determination throughout the WAMZ. Results generated also suggested that IFE failed to hold for the WAMZ’s bilateral relationships. These results yielded supports for the conjecture that if PPP fails to hold, IFE will not hold. Evidences were also gathered towards drawing conclusions that UIP does not hold across the WAMZ. From the empirical evaluation performed, it is evident that the Phillip curve relationship does not hold in the WAMZ (apart from Ghana) over the period covered by this study. There were inferences that the Lucas output-inflation trade-off hold better in the formal economies of the WAMZ than the informal economies. Results generated through the evaluation of seven stylised facts of exchange rates and foreign exchange markets behaviour were mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2018. "Some Stylised Facts for the Economies of Anglophone West Africa and Guinea," MPRA Paper 99145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99145/1/MPRA_paper_99145.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Thompson, Samuel B., 2006. "Volatility comovement: a multifrequency approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 179-215.
    2. Schultze, Charles L, 1984. "Cross-Country and Cross-Temporal Differences in Inflation Responsiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 160-165, May.
    3. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 2000. "Volatility Clustering In Financial Markets: A Microsimulation Of Interacting Agents," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 675-702.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    5. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
    7. Mark J. Holmes, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Fractional Integration of the Real Exchange Rate: New Evidence for Less Developed Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 125-135, June.
    8. Shidong Zhang & Thomas Lowinger, 2006. "An empirical test of purchasing power parity in selected developing countries: a panel data approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 79-86.
    9. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    10. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1999. "Long-run purchasing power parity with short-run data: evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 751-768, October.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    12. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
    13. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    14. Abraham, Abraham & Ikenberry, David L., 1994. "The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 263-277, June.
    15. Nancy Benjamin & Stephen Golub & Ahmadou Aly Mbaye, 2015. "Informality, Trade Policies and Smuggling in West Africa," Journal of Borderlands Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 381-394, September.
    16. Stephen S. Golub, 2012. "Entrepôt Trade and Smuggling in West Africa: Benin, Togo and Nigeria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1139-1161, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2019. "Validity Assessments of International Parity in the ‘Ecozone’: Implications for Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination," MPRA Paper 98945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kalyoncu, Huseyin & Kalyoncu, Kahraman, 2008. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Evidence from panel unit root," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 440-445, May.
    3. Narayan Paresh K & Prasad Biman Chand, 2005. "The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for Eleven Middle Eastern Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 44-58, August.
    4. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
    5. Kausik Chaudhuri & Jeffrey Sheen, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity Across States and Goods Within Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(250), pages 314-329, September.
    6. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
    7. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal, 2011. "Exchange rates and prices in purchasing power parity framework: Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 274-286.
    8. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
    9. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Marcel Kohler, 2016. "On the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from Energy Exporting Sub-Saharan Africa Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 71-82, July-Sept.
    10. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: a historical perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2331-2355, November.
    12. Philip Hans Franses & Dick van Dijk, 2006. "A simple test for PPP among traded goods," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 19-27.
    13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    14. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2005. "The commodity currency puzzle," Discussion Papers 423, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Charles Engel & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems," BIS Working Papers 805, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    17. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    18. Athanasios Papadopoulos & Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2005. "Central Bank Reform and Inflation Dynamics in the Transition Economies theory and some evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 58, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad, 2008. "Are shocks to real effective exchange rates permanent or transitory? Evidence from Pacific Island countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1053-1060.
    20. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Machiko Nissanke, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility: The Empirical Study of Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.