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Purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity: the United States 1974-1990


  • Hali J. Edison
  • William R. Melick


This paper examines the factors behind long-run movements of the dollar. Most recent work has concluded that structural exchange rate models explain only a small proportion of exchange rate movements. However, many economists still find the theory that links exchange rates and interest rates persuasive. We investigate the relationship between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates using multivariate maximum likelihood cointegration tests. In particular, we explicitly test for purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity when using nominal exchange rates, and implicitly test for these two hypothesis when using real exchange rates. The conclusion that emerges from this study is that we almost always identify at least one cointegrating vector among the variables, but we can not verify the theoretical models that show how exchange rates and interest rates are linked.

Suggested Citation

  • Hali J. Edison & William R. Melick, 1992. "Purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity: the United States 1974-1990," International Finance Discussion Papers 425, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:425

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The dollar and real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-139, January.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-1271, December.
    3. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees G. Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
    4. Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991. "A long-run view of the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March.
    5. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-134, Winter.
    6. Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-333, October.
    7. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
    8. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    9. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1991. "Increasing Financial Market Integration, Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 96, OECD Publishing.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
    12. Peter Isard, 1987. "Lessons from Empirical Models of Exchange Rates (Enseignements tirés des modèles empiriques de comportement des taux de change) (Enseñanzas que nos brindan los modelos empíricos de tipos de cambio," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(1), pages 1-28, March.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    14. Craig S. Hakkio & Douglas H. Joines, 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates since 1919," Research Working Paper 90-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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