Of Low Yielders and Carry Trading – the JPY and CHF as Market Risk Sentiment Gauges
Ever since the credit turmoil took hold in the summer 2007 financial markets have been on the brink. Volatility in asset returns and correlations have been high and investors’ view on the underlying market fundamentals equally as fickle. Within that market context, this paper provides strong evidence for the idea of carry trading currencies as risk sentiment gauges in the market. Using daily returns from 2006 to May 2008 it is shown how traditional carry trading currency crosses (mainly JPY and CHF crosses) exhibit strong negative correlation and beta values with three key equity indices. This paper furthermore shows how this relationship, in relation to specific currency pairs, has been particularly strong since the advent of the credit crisis. Finally, this paper also homes in on the idea of carry trading currencies as means of hedging equity returns and fluctuations on a daily basis. At an initial glance such relationships are however bound to be highly spurious. As such, this paper also attempts to qualify its findings in a more general and solid empirical context.
|Date of creation:||09 Aug 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel Kohler, 2007. "Carry Trades: Betting Against Safe Haven," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-12, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2009.
"The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 1107-1125, September.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderllind, 2009. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Working Papers 2010-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Paul Soderlind & Angelo Ranaldo & Charlotte Christiansen, 2009. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Stephen A. Ross, "undated".
"The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
2-73, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Stephen A. Ross, "undated". "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-73, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Longworth, David, 1981. "Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-49, March.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009.
"Carry Trades and Currency Crashes,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John F. O. Bilson, 1980.
"The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis,"
NBER Working Papers
0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
- Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Marie Briere & Bastien Drut, 2009. "The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises," Working Papers CEB 09-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/7743 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alexander, Gordon J. & Chervany, Norman L., 1980. "On the Estimation and Stability of Beta," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 123-137, March.
- Farhi, Emmanuel & Gabaix, Xavier, 2015.
"Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
10334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Plantin, Guillaume & Shin, Hyun Song, 2011. "Carry Trades, Monetary Policy and Speculative Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS.
- Jose Olmo & Keith Pilbeam, 2009. "The profitability of carry trades," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 231-241, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9952. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.